Demography and the future of higher education Frans Willekens NIDI 5 6 December 2005 OECD Paris
Main trends Low fertility in Europe and Japan Ageing Ageing scientists and teachers Globalisation Transnationalism On-line learning (and research) Female participation in education and labour force How to combine work and family? (incompatible)
The causes
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Total Fertility Rate Europe N America China India Total Fertility Rate 1950-1955 1955-1960 1960-1965 1965-1970 1970-1975 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 2040-2045 2045-2050 Source: United Nations, http://esa.un.org/unpp/
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 Life expectancy at birth Europe N America China India Life expectancy at birth 1950-1955 1955-1960 1960-1965 1965-1970 1970-1975 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 2040-2045 2045-2050 Source: United Nations, http://esa.un.org/unpp/
Infant Mortality Rate (Deaths in first year of life per 1000 live births) A comparison: Netherlands and India
Survival function A comparison: Netherlands and India (period data) 100000 90000 80000 1850 F 1991 AP (INDIA) M e 0 =60 1991 F e 0 =80 70000 60000 e 0 =40 1850 M 1991 M e 0 =74 50000 e 0 =38 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
The demographic consequences
Ageing in Japan 2002: 1.15 million births TFR = 1.32 NSSPPRI Scenario for 2000-2100
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Number of births per year Source: United Nations, http://esa.un.org/unpp/ 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 NUmber of births (million) 1950-1955 1955-1960 1960-1965 1965-1970 1970-1975 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 2040-2045 2045-2050 Europe N America China India World
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Distribution of births (%) Rest of World India China N America Europe 1950-1955 1955-1960 1960-1965 1965-1970 1970-1975 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 2040-2045 2045-2050
Consequences for education and health
School population as % of total population. World 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 Source: United Nations (2003, p. 9) http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/2003monitoring/worldpopmonitoring_2003.pdf
Distribution of school-age population by major region 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 Source: United Nations (2003, p. 10) http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/2003monitoring/worldpopmonitoring_2003.pdf
Source: United Nations (2003, p. 11) http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/2003monitoring/worldpopmonitoring_2003.pdf
What if?
Source: http://www.cms.hhs.gov/mcbs/cmssrc/2000/summary4.pdf
China: 5% (which is 31 million people aged 25-64 years) The fact that China is developing rapidly is due to the large population base where skilled people can be drawn from. Source: Schaaper, M. AN EMERGING KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY IN CHINA? INDICATORS FROM OECD DATABASES. STI WORKING PAPER 2004/4 (Statistical Analysis of Science, Technology and Industry, OECD, Paris), 2004, p. 32
International migration and transnationalism
Migration opportunities 1 Remittances are part of labour migration IMF: Worldwide US$70 billion every year, an amount greater than total government aid to developing countries IOM estimates US$88 billion 2003: total ODA (Official Development Assistance) of 22 OECD- DAC countries reached $68.5 billion (= 0.25% of DAC members' combined gross national income) http://www.oecd.org/document/22/0,2340,en_2649_34447_31504022_1_1_1_1,00.html; Table: http://fmmeyer.de/donorprofiles.htm 2003: immigrants in USA sent $30 billion abroad, about twice the ODA of the USA ($15.8 billion) (US is largest donor) Europe: US$12 billion (2000) Remittances more effect on household income The worldwide cash flow (money transfer) continues to grow: movement of labour triggers movement of capital UN: http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/ittmig2002/pop849.doc IOM: International Organization for Migration (IOM) (2004) World Migration 2003: Managing Migration - Challenges and Responses for People on the Move, IOM, Geneva http://www.iom.int/iomwebsite/publication/servletsearchpublication?event=detail&id=2111 http://www.limitstogrowth.org/web-text/remittances.html
Globalisation and migration Transnationalism: process whereby people establish and maintain sociocultural connections across geopolitical borders (Schiller et al. 1992) Migrants may simultaneously participate in several political systems, retain dual citizenship, send large amounts of money back home, and define their identities in culturally hybrid terms. Jewish of the diaspora The Overseas Chinese and Returned Overseas Chinese Non-resident Indians (NRIs) and Persons of Indian Origin (PIOs) Includes: migration, flow of remittances, social networks
Migration and transnationalism The Overseas Chinese and Returned Overseas Chinese 54 million at end of 1999 (http://www.indexchina.com/index-english/oversea.html) Asia (outside China and Taiwan): 27 million USA: 6 million Europe: 1 million Overseas Chinese key force in nation's revival (People s Daily Online, 21 July 2004) Overseas Chinese s investments accounts for more than 70 per cent of China's foreign investment. What about Europe?
Migration and transnationalism I left China with my parents when I was 13 years old and have been living since in Germany. I have now been offered the position of Finance Director in Shanghai (on a four-year assignment) by the German company I am currently working for. While I search information about Shanghai I came across this web site you may give me some advice on relocation to Shanghai and help me to make a decision whether to accept the job offer. Currently I am very comfortable with my work and private life in Germany. (http://shanghaiexpat.com/pnphpbb2-name-file-viewtopic-t- 13385.html)
Migration and transnationalism Non-resident Indians (NRIs) and Persons of Indian Origin (PIOs): 20 million (Times of India, 20 August 2004; http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/5983_960257,00430001.htm) Remittences/investment: US$ 15 billion per year (http://www.indiaday.org/tylerplan.asp) Global Indian Network (http://www.indiaday.org/index.htm#) Ministry of NRI Afairs [established June 2004] create an atmosphere to facilitate NRIs and PIOs who want to have a connection with India Jagdish Tytler, Minister of State of NRI Affairs (http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/821093.cms) NRI bank account (Citibank: can be accessed and operated using the Internet, ATM centers, telephones and the Citibank NRI Service centers situated across the globe. (http://www.online.citibank.co.in/portal/cb/nri/rupee.htm)
Migration and transnationalism East African Asians in Britain The East African Asians who fled Uganda in the 1970s have contributed immeasurably to British society and in just 30 years have become one of the most economically successful migrant groups this country has ever seen. (Blair s migration speech [April 27, 2004]) http://politics.guardian.co.uk/speeches/story/0,11126,1204464,00.html At that time (1972), Uganda's then-infamous dictator, Idi Amin, gave the nearly 75,000 Ugandans of Asian descent 90 days to pack their bags and leave the country.
Globalisation of higher education
International students in higher education in the USA USA: total count of all higher education students, both domestic and international: 13.4 million In International students: 537.5 thousands (2000: 586,000 [270,000 in Britain and 227,000 in Germany) Top 10 sending places of origin and percentage of total international student enrollment (in 03/04): 1. India 13.9% (80,000) 2. China 10.8% (61,000) 3. Korea, Rep. of 9.2% (52,000) 4. Japan 7.1% 5. Canada 4.7% 6. Taiwan 4.6% 7. Mexico 2.3% 8. Turkey 2% 9. Thailand 1.6% 10. Indonesia 1.6% Source: Open Doors Data: Atlas of Student Mobility, http://www.atlas.iienetwork.org/?p=48048
Higher education and highly educated people of working age A cohort perspective
Transition probabilities 44% enter tertiary education Transition rates (1 and 2) 0.2 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 Sec_Tert (1) Tert_discontinue (2) Tert_Grad (3) 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 Transition rates (3) 0.02 0.2 0 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 0
100 Trajectories in education State occupancies 0.4 yrs 2.2% Proportion Percentage of the population aged 25 to 34 that has attained tertiary education is 28% (average OECD 2001) (Vincent-Lancrin, 2004,p.247) 80 60 40 20 0 Tertiary not completed Tertiary completed Tertiary < Tertiary 2.1 yrs 6.4 yrs 21.1 yrs 56.5% 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 80% of the university students would be aged under 23 On average in OECD countries, a 17-year-old can expect to (Vincent-Lancrin, 2004,p.258) receive 2.5 years of tertiary education. (Vincent-Lancrin, 2004, 41.1%
Transition probabilities 10% enter tertiary education (China) 0.5% drop-out Transition rates (1 and 2) 0.2 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 Sec_Tert (1) Tert_discontinue (2) Tert_Grad (3) 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 Transition rates (3) 0.02 0.2 0 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 0
Trajectories in education State occupancies (China) 100 90 0.5 yrs 1.6 yrs 10.1% 80 70 60 Proportion 50 40 30 Tertiary not completed Tertiary completed 27.9 yrs 89.9% 20 10 Tertiary < Tertiary 0 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40
Access to highly educated population Country A: cohort member contributes before age 40 6.4 years as highly educated. Country B: cohort member contributes before age 40 1.6 years as highly educated.
Impact of entry into tertiary education on access to highly educated population Access in person-years before age 40 Entry rate Births per year 40% 10% (2000-2004) 6.4 1.6 N America 4423 28307 7077 Europe 7354 47066 11766 China 17566 112422 28106 India 25753 164819 41205
160 Contribution of birth cohorts to highly educated population under 40 (person-years) N America and Europe: 6.4 yrs China and India: 1.6 yrs Highly educated Person-years (<age 40) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 2040-2045 India China N America Europe 2045- Period of birth 2050 400 N America and Europe: 6.4 yrs China and India: 6.4 yrs Highly educated Person-years (<age 40 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 India China N America Europe 0 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 2040-2045 2045- Period of birth 2050
Conclusion Ageing is the outcome of low fertility and increased longevity Globalisation of higher education Cost-effectiveness of higher education: cohort perspective person-years measures
Thank you
Source: http://www.childpolicyintl.org/contexttabledemography/table%202.19b%20infant%20mortality%20rates%20and%20life%20expectancy%20a t%20birth.pdf