Re-Selecting Members of the European Parliament

Re-Selecting Members of the European Parliament

Elena Frech Re-Selecting Members of the European Parliament Candidate Selection, Party Goals, and Re-Election Probabilities

Elena Frech Geneva, Switzerland Dissertation University of Mannheim, Germany, 2016 ISBN 978-3-658-21750-1 ISBN 978-3-658-21751-8 (ebook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-21751-8 Library of Congress Control Number: 2018939303 Springer VS Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH, part of Springer Nature 2018 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Printed on acid-free paper This Springer VS imprint is published by the registered company Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH part of Springer Nature The registered company address is: Abraham-Lincoln-Str. 46, 65189 Wiesbaden, Germany

To all the bears in my life. Thank you!

Acknowledgements It is most important to me to thank my loved ones. My family is my anchor, providing me with endless love and support, with energy and balance. I am very grateful for the love and support of my closest friends and siblings. My parents piqued my curiosity, have always encouraged me to pursue my dreams, and have supported me in many ways during my studies. I would have never reached that far without their love, faith in me, and encouragement. I am indebted to my husband, who endured my ups and downs during the last years and lifted my spirit time and again. Iamdeeplygratefulforhislove,hisfirmbeliefinmyabilities,andfor making me smile. I would like to thank my academic advisor Professor Dr. Thomas König, who supported me and from whom I learnt a lot about research and academia. I am very grateful for his support and advice during the last few years. I am furthermore thankful to Professor Dr. Nikoleta Yordanova, my former colleague, second thesis advisor, and committee member, for being always available, supportive, and for her comments on numerous drafts. I would also like to thank Professor Dr. Wolfgang C. Müller for his interest in my research and for acting as a thesis reviewer and chair of the committee. Moreover, I am thankful to Professor Dr. Hermann Schmitt, with whom I had the privilege to discuss my research on multiple occasions. With his expert knowledge on European elections, his suggestions were particularly helpful. Furthermore, I am very thankful to many colleagues and friends for fruitful discussions, helpful suggestions, and their company during countless breaks. From the numerous colleagues who have made suggestions over the past years I would like to mention Mariyana Angelova, Serra Boranbay, Eva-Maria Euchner, Matthias Haber, Sebastian Köhler, Moritz Marbach, Daniel Müller, Dominic Nyhuis, Moritz Osnabrügge, Sander

VIII Acknowledgements Renes, and Michael Stoffel. Special thanks go to James Lo. I am not sure I would have finished this book without his help and friendship. Iamgratefulforthetimeandcooperationofmyinterviewpartnersand the German party organizations. Their willingness to answer my questions and their willingness to share information was an important prerequisite for this thesis. Furthermore, I thank Hobolt and Høyland (2011), Høyland et al. (2009), Höhne (2013b), the German Federal Statistical Office (Statistisches Bundesamt, 1999, 2004, 2009); and the European Parliament archive and documentation center (European Parliament, 2012, 2014) for providing me with data. I gratefully acknowledge the support of the Graduate School of Economic and Social Sciences (GESS) as well as the Collaborative Research Center (SFB) 884 Political Economy of Reforms at the University of Mannheim. Parts or previous versions of this study have been presented at different colloquia and conferences. I am grateful for helpful comments and suggestions from the various participants and discussants. The quality of this book was furthermore improved by the detailed comments of three anonymous reviewers of my article at European Union Politics, which was partially re-printed in this book (Frech, 2016). I also thank Lisa, Johannes, Katharina, Celine, Xiao, Fabian, Hollie, and Andrej for double-checking the data and the text.

Contents 1. Introduction 1 1.1. An Information Deficit Concerning Selection or Why Study German Parties Candidate Selection for European Elections? 2 1.2. Candidate Selection in Germany.............. 4 1.3. Party Goals in European Elections and Expected Effects. 6 1.4. Factors Influencing Re-Election Probabilities....... 9 1.5. Contributions....................... 11 1.6. Outline........................... 13 2. State of the Art 17 2.1. Legislative Recruitment and Candidate Selection..... 18 2.1.1. Legislative Recruitment to the European Parliament 20 2.2. Measuring Political Behavior in the European Union... 25 2.3. Contributions....................... 27 3. Theoretical Framework 29 3.1. The Principal-Agent Framework.............. 30 3.2. Party Goals and Trade-Offs in European Elections.... 32 3.2.1. Legislative Leverage................ 36 3.2.2. Loyalty....................... 38 3.2.3. Attractiveness to Voters.............. 39 3.2.4. Trade-Offs between Party Goals.......... 39 3.3. (S)electoral Institutions and the Re-Selection of MEPs.. 41 3.3.1. Party Incentive-Based Hypotheses........ 41 3.3.2. MEP Reputation-Based Hypotheses....... 42 3.4. Summary.......................... 44 4. Methods, Data Collection, and Measures 47 4.1. The Best of Both Worlds or Mixing Methods....... 47

X Contents 4.2. Qualitative Methods Interviews, Documents and a Survey 52 4.2.1. Data Collection and Validation.......... 54 4.3. Quantitative Methods................... 59 4.3.1. Electoral Lists and List Placement........ 60 4.3.2. Measuring List Place Quality The Dependent Variable...................... 63 4.3.3. Party Goal Measures and other Variables..... 70 4.3.4. The Quantitative Analysis, or Which Model to Run 84 4.4. Research Design, Data, and Variables Summary.... 85 I. Candidate Selection 89 5. Candidate Selection for European Elections in Germany 91 5.1. Dimensions of Candidate Selection............ 91 5.2. Legal Framework...................... 95 5.3. The German Parties and Candidate Selection....... 98 5.3.1. The Social Democratic Party of Germany.... 100 5.3.2. The Christian Democratic Union......... 105 5.3.3. The Christian Social Union............ 112 5.3.4. Alliance 90/The Greens.............. 116 5.3.5. The Free Democratic Party............ 120 5.3.6. The Party of Democratic Socialism/The Left.. 125 5.4. Analysis of the Four Dimensions of Candidate Selection. 129 5.5. Summary of Candidate Selection in German Parties... 139 II. MEP Re-Selection 143 6. The Factors Determining the Re-Election Probabilities of MEPs 145 6.1. Legislative Leverage.................... 146 6.2. Loyalty........................... 150 6.3. Attractiveness to Voters.................. 153

Contents XI 6.4. Institutional Factors.................... 155 6.4.1. National Party Positions.............. 156 6.4.2. A Strong Home Base............... 158 6.4.3. Gender Quota................... 161 6.4.4. Selectorate..................... 162 6.4.5. Informal Pre-Selection............... 164 6.5. Personality and other Personal Characteristics...... 165 6.6. Summary of Results.................... 166 7. Candidate Selection, Party Goals, and Re-Election Probabilities: Conclusions 169 7.1. Avenues for Further Research............... 170 7.1.1. Broadening the Scope............... 171 7.1.2. How Party Institutions Affect Legislative Behavior and Outcomes................... 172 7.2. Main Findings and Implications.............. 173 Bibliography 177 Appendix 195 1. Document Analyses and Survey.............. 195 2. Interviews......................... 209 3. Variables and Distributions................ 213 4. Quantitative Analyses and Robustness Checks...... 222

List of Figures 3.1. The Behavioral Space of Parties in EP Elections..... 36 4.1. Illustration of the Research Design............ 51 4.2. Histogram of List Positions that led to Re-Election (1999 to 2009).......................... 62 4.3. Distribution of Re-Election Probabilities for German MEPs (N=173).......................... 69 5.1. The Election of the Selectorate of German Parties for the EP Election........................ 131 5.2. The Inclusiveness of the Selectorate for EP Elections in German Parties DPM.................. 132 5.3. The Decentralization of Candidate Selection in German Parties........................... 136 5.4. Most Important Groups in Candidate Selection for the 2009 European Elections in Europe............ 138 6.1. The Relationship between Age and Re-Election Probability. 151 A.1. The Left Candidate Selection Resolution 2014..... 203 A.2. Survey Example German.................. 207 A.3. Declaration of Agreement................. 212 A.4. EP Seniority in the Dataset................ 213 A.5. The Distribution of the Home Constituency Index.... 214 A.6. Distribution of the Re-Election Probabilities by Parties.. 221

List of Tables 1.1. Overview of Expected Effects............... 9 2.1. Categorizing Literature on Candidate Selection...... 24 4.1. Example of Input Data for the Estimation of Re-Election Probabilities........................ 66 4.2. Committee Power Classification of EP Committees.. 71 4.3. Variables and Descriptive Statistics............. 80 5.1. German Parties and European Elections......... 99 5.2. Candidate Selection for European Elections in the CDU. 107 5.3. MEP Candidate Selection in German Parties....... 142 6.1. Analysis of the Influence of Party Goals on Re-Election Probabilities........................ 147 6.2. Analysis of the Influence of Institutional Factors on Re- Election Probabilities................... 157 A.1. The FDP (the Free Democratic Party).......... 195 A.2. The CDU (the Christian Democratic Union)....... 197 A.3. The CSU (the Christian-Social Union).......... 198 A.4. Bündnis 90/DIE GRÜNEN (Alliance 90/the Greens)... 200 A.5. Die LINKE (the Left)................... 202 A.6. SPD (the Social Democratic Party of Germany)..... 205 A.7. Questions and Procedure Interviews.......... 209 A.8. Overview of Interviews................... 211 A.9. Correlation Matrix of Variables............... 215 A.10.Estimation of Re-Election Probabilities Significance, Confidence Intervals and other Statistics......... 219

XVI List of Tables A.11.The Influence of Party Goals on Re-Election Probabilities Fractional Logit Models.................. 222 A.12.Analysis of the Influence of Institutional Factors on Re- Election Probabilities................... 224 A.13.The Factors determining Re-Election Probability Robustness Checks...................... 225 A.14.Explaining List Placement with Models used in Previous Studies........................... 227 A.15.Anlysis of List Placement and the Factors Determining the Re-Election Probabilities Different DVs and a Gamma Regression......................... 229 A.16.Institutional Factors Determining Re-Election Probabilities Robustness Checks..................... 231 A.17.Institutional Factors Determining Re-Election Probabilities Robustness Checks..................... 232 A.18.The Influence of Institutional Factors on Re-Election Probabilities Fractional Logit Models.................. 233 A.19.Analysis of the Influence of Institutional Factors on List Placement Logit DV................... 234

Acronyms BB BE BY BW Brandenburg (Brandenburg) Berlin (Berlin) Bayern (Bavaria) Baden-Württemberg (Baden-Württemberg) CDA Christlich Demokratische Arbeitnehmerschaft Deutschlands (Christian Democratic Employees of Germany) CDU Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (Christian Democratic Union of Germany) CSU EP EPG EU FDP FU Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (Christian Social Union in Bavaria) European Parliament European Political Group European Union Freie Demokratische Partei (Free Democratic Party) Frauen Union der CDU (Womens Union of the CDU) Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Alliance 90/The Greens) HB HE HH Bremen (Bremen) Hessen (Hessen) Hamburg (Hamburg)

XVIII Acronyms JU Junge Union Deutschlands (Young Union of Germany) KPV Kommunalpolitische Vereinigung der CDU und CSU Deutschlands (Organisation for Local Politics of the CDU and CSU of Germany) Left MIT MV NI NW Die Linke (The Left) Mittelstands- und Wirtschaftsvereinigung der CDU/CSU (Organisation for Medium Sized Businesses and Economy of the CDU/CSU) Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania) Niedersachsen (Lower Saxony) Nordrhein-Westfalen (North Rhine-Westphalia) OMV Ost- und Mitteldeutsche Vereinigung in der CDU/CSU - Union der Vertriebenen - (Eastern and Middle German Organisation in the CDU/CSU - Union of the Displaced and Refugees -) RP SH SL SN SPD ST SU TH Rheinland-Pfalz (Rhineland-Palatinate) Schleswig-Holstein (Schleswig-Holstein) Saarland (Saarland) Sachsen (Saxony) Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (Social Democratic Party of Germany) Sachsen-Anhalt (Saxony-Anhalt) Senioren Union der CDU (Union of the Elderly of the CDU) Thüringen (Thuringia)