Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

Chart Collection for Morning Briefing November 1, 1 Dr. Edward Yardeni 1-97-73 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana --1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

1 1 Figure 1. US TREASURY 1-YEAR BOND YIELD (percent, monthly) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Yield (1.7) 1 3 7 9 1 3 7 9 71 73 7 77 79 1 3 7 9 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 1 17 19 1 Source: Haver Analytics... Figure. US TREASURY 1-YEAR BOND YIELD (percent, daily)....... 3. Yield (.3). 3. 3. 3... 11/1.. 1. 1. 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 Source: Haver Analytics. 1. 1. Page 1 / November 1, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

Figure 3. PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT (monthly change, thousands,sa) - 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. -.. Figure. JOB OPENINGS: JOLTS & NFIB NFIB: Firms with One or More Job Openings (percent, 1-month average) (7.) 3 3. 3. 3.... JOLTS: Job Openings Rate (percent, 1-month average) (.) 1 1 1. 1. 7 9 9 91 9 93 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 3 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 1 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and National Federation of Small Business. Page / November 1, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

3. 3. Figure. LAYOFFS & QUITS (millions, sa) 3. 3. 3. 3... Layoffs (1.) Quits (3.1)........ 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 1. 1. 1. 1 Figure. QUITS vs. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX 3. 3. 1 Consumer Confidence Index (19=1) 3. 1 Quits (millions, sa)..... 1. 1. 3 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and The Conference Board. 1. Page 3 / November 1, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

7 Figure 7. ATLANTA FED S MEDIAN WAGE GROWTH TRACKER (yearly percent change) 7 Job Stayer (3.3) Job Switcher (.) 3 3 1 97 9 99 1 3 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 1 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. 1 Figure. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS: PRIVATE INDUSTRY (yearly percent change) 3 Total (.) Goods Producing (3.) Service Producing (.7) 3 1 1 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page / November 1, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

9 9 1 1 11 11 1 1 13 Figure 9. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR Brent Crude Oil Futures Price* (dollars per barrel) JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 11/1 1 1 1 13 1 11 1 9 7 3 * Nearby futures price. ** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Haver Analytics. Figure 1. INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR 7 9 9 CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* (197=1) 1 1 JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) 11/1 11 11 1 3 1 11/1 13 9 9 97 9 99 1 3 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 1 * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. ** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and JP Morgan. Page / November 1, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

9 1 11 1 13 Figure 11. TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR & EXPECTED INFLATION JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) Expected Inflation in 1-Year TIPS* 3 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 11/1 11/1 3. 3. 3...... 1. 1. 1. 1. 1...... * Yield spread between 1-year US Treasury bond and comparable TIPS. ** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and JP Morgan. 7 9 9 1 Figure 1. US IMPORT PRICES & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate* (inverted scale) (13.9) Import Price Index: Nonpetroleum Imports (yearly percent change) (-.) 1 1 1 11 11 1 1 13 1999 1 3 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 11/1 - -1 * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and JP Morgan. Page / November 1, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

11 Figure 13. JAPAN: EXPORTS & IMPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES IN REAL GDP (billions of yen, saar) 11 9 Imports Exports 9 7 Q3 7 3 9 97 9 99 1 3 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 Source: Haver Analytics. 3 3 Figure 1. US IMPORT PRICES FROM JAPAN vs. JAPANESE YEN (yearly percent change) 3 1 1-1 - US Import Prices from Japan (.9) -1-3 Dollars per Yen (1.) - - 1 3 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Reserve Board. -3 Page 7 / November 1, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

1 1 Figure 1. US IMPORT PRICES FROM CHINA vs. CHINA PPI (yearly percent change) 1 1 US Import Prices from China (-1.7) China PPI (1.) - - - - - - - -1 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and China National Bureau of Statistics. - -1 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 - - - - -1-1 -1-1 -1 Figure 1. CHINA: RAILWAYS FREIGHT TRAFFIC & PPI (yearly percent change) 3 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 Source: China National Bureau of Statistics. Railways Freight Traffic (7.) PPI (1.) 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 - - - - -1-1 -1-1 -1 Page / November 1, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

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