Information Economic Outlook leading indicators at a glance June 216 www.vbw-bayern.de
Contents X Contents 1 Germany... 1 2 Eurozone... 2 3 World Economy... 3 Appendix: Descriptions of leading indicators... 4 Contact / Publication details... 5
Germany 1 1 Germany Improvement of most indicators Most leading indicators for Germany have recently shown some improvements. The Ifo Business Climate Index (Ifo-Geschäftsklimaindex) recorded a rise both in terms of the assessment of the current situation and regarding business expectations compared to the previous month. The Sentix Economic Index (sentix-konjunkturindex) showed a similar development. The Purchasing Managers Index for the German Industry (Einkaufsmanagerindex) increased by.3 and now stands at 52.1 points. The Economic Sentiment Indicator also went up. Only the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (ZEW-Konjunkturindikator) fell again. The data on the mileage of trucks (according to the toll statistics) currently do not provide a reliable indication: An extension of the toll road network in July 215 means the numbers cannot be compared to the previous year. ifo-business Climate Index Germany manufacturing, construction and trade, 25 = 13 12 11 9 Business Climate Assessment of business situation Business expectations Purchasing Managers' Index Germany, manufacturing, 5 = no change 65 55 5 45 35 3 7 Source: ifo Institut 25 Source: MarkIT Economic Sentiment Indicator, Germany 25 = 13 12 11 9 7 ZEW-Indicator of Economic Sentiment Germany 2-2 - - - Source: ZEW Source: Eurostat Truck kilometers traveled and industrial output, Germany Difference from same month last year kilometers traveled (1 month delay) sentix Economic Index, Germany Range: - to + Current Situation Expectations Overall Index 15% industrial output (3-month average) 2% 1% 15% 5% 1% 5% % % 2-5% -5% -1% -15% -1% -15% -2% -2 - -2% 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216-25% - Source: sentix 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 Source: German Federal Office for Goods and Transport (BAG), Destatis.
Eurozone 2 2 Eurozone Uneven picture The leading indicators for the Eurozone continue to diverge. The Economic Sentiment Indicator showed an improvement, both for the Eurozone and the EU as a whole. The Sentix Economic Index (sentix-konjunkturindex) also rose, reflecting an improved assessment of the current situation as well as brighter business expectations. In contrast, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (ZEW-Konjunkturindikator) and the Purchasing Managers Index for the Industry in the Euro area (Einkaufsmanagerindex) both declined, although the latter still stands above the so-called growth threshold at 51.5 points. The most recent quarterly Ifo Index for the Eurozone from April showed a fall, both in the assessment of the business activity and the business expectations. sentix Economic Index, Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator Range: - to + Current Situation Expectations Overall Index 25 = Datenreihen1 Datenreihen2 12 11 2 9-2 - - 7 - Sorce: sentix 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 Source: Eurostat Purchasing Managers' Index, Eurozone manufacturing, 5 = no change 55 5 45 35 3 Source: MarkIT ZEW-Indicator of Economic Sentiment Euro area 2-2 - - - Source: ZEW ifo Economic Climate for the Eurozone 25 = 25 Economic climate Assessment for economic situation Expectations for the next 6 months 2 15 5 Source: ifo Institut
2.1.215 2.2.215 2.3.215 2.4.215 2.5.215 2.6.215 2.7.215 2.8.215 2.9.215 2.1.215 2.11.215 2.12.215 2.1.216 2.2.216 2.3.216 2.4.216 2.5.216 2.6.216 Information Economic Outlook - Leading indicators at a glance World Economy 3 3 World Economy Global leading indicators bottoming out The leading indicators for the world economy show signs of bottoming out. While the OECD-leading indicator stagnated, the German Federal Bank s leading indicator (Bundesbank Frühindikator) managed to rise slightly. However, both remained far below their long-time average. The Purchasing Managers Index (Einkaufsmanagerindex) for the industry increased marginally by.2 to 5.3 points. The freight index fell to some extent, whereas the Baltic Dry Index moved sideways in the last month. The most recent quarterly Ifo Index for the World Economic Climate from April recorded a fall. Although the assessment of the economic situation rose marginally, the business expectations deteriorated compared to January. OECD leading indicator langjähriger Durchschnitt = 14 Bundesbank leading indicator for the world economy long-term avarage = 14 12 12 98 98 96 96 94 Quelle: OECD 94 Source:Bundesbank Purchasing Managers' Index manufacturing, worldwide, 5 = no change; weighted average of Eurozone, UK, USA, Japan, China, India, Brasil and Russia ifo World Economic Climate Index, 25 = 1 Economic climate Assessment of economic situation Expectations for the next 6 months 12 5 2 3 Sources: ISM, CFLP, MarkIT, ow n calculations. Source: ifo Institut 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 Baltic Dry Index 215/216 1. Container Throughput Index and World Trade seasonally adjusted, 28 = 13 RWI/ISL -Index World Trade 1.2 1. 12 11 2 9 Source: bloomberg 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 Sources: RWI, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
Appendix: Descriptions of leading indicators 4 Appendix: Descriptions of leading indicators The Ifo Business Climate is a widely observed leading indicator for economic development in Germany. It is based on ca. 7, monthly survey responses of firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The Ifo Index for the Economic Climate in the Eurozone as well as the ifo World Economic Climate Index are based on a survey of 1, or 3 economic experts respectively. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the German Industry (Einkaufsmanagerindex) is based on estimations by purchasing managers of industrial companies. The PMI for the Industry in the world economy is calculated by us. It conveys the average of the PMIs of the Eurozone, the USA, the UK, Japan, China and Brasil, weighted according to their share of world GDP. The European Economic Sentiment Indicator is based on a survey of businesses from industry, trade, construction as well as service providers and consumers. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (ZEW-Konjunkturindikator) is based on a survey of over 3 financial experts. The toll statistics account for the mileage of trucks that are liable to tolls on German autobahns measured in kms. The change of the amount compared with the same month of the previous year (adjusted for the calendar effect) serves as an indicator. The Sentix Economic Index (sentix-konjunkturindex) is based on a survey of 2,5 private and institutional financial market participants. The OECD-leading indicator is made up of various individual indicators from 33 countries (OECD-members such as Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa). The German Federal Bank s leading indicator (Bundesbank Frühindikator) for the world economy is made up of several global indicators (Purchasing Managers Index for industry, Purchasing Managers Index for services, consumer climate for the current economic situation, consumer climate for business expectations, S&P Global 12 stock index). The Baltic Dry Index is an important price index for tracking international shipping costs for dry bulk commodities. The Container Throughput Index is a joint project of the Rheinisch-Westfälisches Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitut (RWI) and the Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL). It is based on market observations in 72 international ports that together make up about percent of the worldwide container handling of manufactured goods.
Contact / Publication details 5 Volker Leinweber Head of Economy Department Phone +49 ()89-551 78-133 Telefax +49 ()89-551 78-294 volker.leinweber@vbw-bayern.de Tobias Kochta Economy Department Phone +49 ()89-551 78-422 Telefax +49 ()89-551 78-294 tobias.kochta@vbw-bayern.de Publisher: bayme Bayerischer Unternehmensverband Metall und Elektro e. V. vbm Verband der Bayerischen Metall- und Elektro-Industrie e. V. vbw Vereinigung der Bayerischen Wirtschaft e. V. Max-Joseph-Straße 5 333 München www.baymevbm.de www.vbw-bayern.de bayme vbm vbw June 216