Transatlantic Trends 14 Key Findings www.transatlantictrends.org 2
Transatlantic Trends 14 Methodology This is the thirteenth annual Transatlantic Trends survey of public opinion in the United States and Europe. TNS Opinion was commissioned to conduct the survey in 13 countries: the U.S., Turkey, Russia, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Sweden, Spain, and the United Kingdom. The surveys were conducted as Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews in all countries except Poland, Russia, and Turkey, where lower telephone penetration necessitated the use of face-to-face interviews. In all countries, a random sample of approximately 1, men and women (Russia: 1,5), 18 years of age and older, were interviewed. Interviews were conducted between June 2 and June 26, 14. For results based on the national samples in each of the 13 countries surveyed, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling and other random effects is +/ - 3%. www.transatlantictrends.org 3
Transatlantic Trends 14 Overview 1. Turkey 2. The Transatlantic Relationship 3. The Economy, the EU, and Immigration 4. Transatlantic Security Cooperation 5. Russia www.transatlantictrends.org 4
Percent Transatlantic Trends 14 Turks Increasingly in Favor of EU Membership 1 Good Bad 8 6 43 48 44 45 53 35 3 37 36 29 1 11 12 13 14 Q 22: Generally speaking, do you think that [COUNTRY]'s membership in the European Union [EU COUNTRIES: has been]/[turkey: would be] a good thing or a bad thing for [COUNTRY]? www.transatlantictrends.org 5
Transatlantic Trends 14 www.transatlantictrends.org 6
Transatlantic Trends 14 Plurality of Turks Who Think EU Membership Would be a Good Thing Think it Will be Good for the Economy 12 1 1 16 EU is a community of democracies Free movement Maintained peace 29 22 Strengthened European economies More than one op on None of the above Don't Know Q23a: What is the most important reason EU membership has been a good thing? * Asked of the 53% of Turkish respondents who said EU membership would be a good thing for their country www.transatlantictrends.org 7
Transatlantic Trends 14 Plurality of Turks Who Think EU Membership Would be a Bad Thing Think that the EU Would Undermine Turkey's Culture 11 18 Would harm our country s economy Too much authority 21 8 Would undermine our culture Is undemocra c 42 More than one op on Q23b: What is the most important reason EU membership has been a bad thing? * Asked of the 29% of Turkish respondents who said EU membership would be a bad thing for their country www.transatlantictrends.org 8
Percent Transatlantic Trends 14 Turkey Increasingly in Favor of Working with EU 13 14 38 33 Turkey should act alone 28 21 The EU 14 8 8 Middle East 1 The U.S. 15 Don't know 6 9 5 2 4 More than one op on Russia Q7: On interna onal ma ers, with which one of the following do you think Turkey should cooperate most closely? www.transatlantictrends.org 9
Percent Transatlantic Trends 14 Turks Increasingly View NATO as Essen al 1 8 6 53 52 44 35 38 35 3 37 38 39 49 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 Q1: Some people say that NATO is s ll essen al to our country's security. Others say it is no longer essen al. Which of these views is closer to your own? [if respondent asks: 'NATO is the Alliance among the USA, Canada, and many European states'] www.transatlantictrends.org 1
Percent Transatlantic Trends 14 Favorability of Turkey 1 8 23 24 35 6 22 21 31 29 42 72 7 59 58 56 53 48 46 Germany Greece France Italy Sweden EU 33 37 36 54 73 45 39 36 32 28 25 24 Spain Netherlands Portugal United Kingdom U.S. Russia Turkey Poland Favorable Unfavorable Q4.5: Please tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of Turkey? www.transatlantictrends.org 11
Transatlantic Trends 14 Overview 1. Turkey 2. The Transatlantic Relationship 3. The Economy, the EU, and Immigration 4. Transatlantic Security Cooperation 5. Russia www.transatlantictrends.org 12
Percent Transatlantic Trends 14 Majori es Support U.S., EU Leadership 1 U.S. desire for EU Leadership EU desire for U.S. leadership 8 6 76 73 68 72 72 69 63 57 7 55 56 54 52 55 56 37 36 36 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 Q1a-b: How desirable is it that the United States/European Union exert strong leadership in world affairs? Very desirable, somewhat desirable, somewhat undesirable, or very undesirable? www.transatlantictrends.org 13
Percent Transatlantic Trends 14 U.S., EU Leadership Seen as Desirable, Russia Less So 1 8 6 83 7 56 73 U.S. EU 39 38 31 27 28 14 16 In the United States In the EU In Turkey Russia China Q1a-d: How desirable is it that the United States/European Union/Russia/China exert strong leadership in world affairs? Very desirable, somewhat desirable, somewhat undesirable, or very undesirable? www.transatlantictrends.org 14
Percent Transatlantic Trends 14 Obama's Approval Drops, Dramatically in Germany 9 13 13-8 1-11 -7-1 -2-3 -14-16 -16-16 -4-5 -7-2 -19-19 -19-19 -22-3 - -36-2.1: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the President of the United States Barack Obama is handling international policies? *Sweden data from 11, Russia data from 12 www.transatlantictrends.org 15
Percent Transatlantic Trends 14 Approval of Own Government's Interna onal Policies 1 8 6 12 19 25 33 42 38 43 42 52 47 47 58 62 66 83 74 68 6 52 52 51 51 47 47 44 Disapprove Russia Sweden Germany Netherlands EU Poland United Kingdom Italy 35 33 28 France Turkey Portugal U.S. Spain Q3.1: Do you approve or disapprove of how [COUNTRY]'s government is handling interna onal policies? Greece Approve www.transatlantictrends.org 16
Percent Transatlantic Trends 14 U.S., EU See Each Other Favorably 1 8 81 U.S. 6 57 67 65 45 EU Russia 34 35 25 31 China In the United States In the EU In Turkey Q4.1-4: Please tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of the United States/the European Union/Russia/China? www.transatlantictrends.org 17
Percent Transatlantic Trends 14 Support for Independent Approach to Transatlantic Relationship 1 8 6 18 32 28 19 9 69 24 8 12 58 58 57 49 52 19 55 54 33 26 14 21 51 5 5 42 32 35 47 45 19 26 42 36 18 32 35 34 34 33 34 37 27 36 26 22 Become closer Remain the same More independent approach 13 Q5: Do you think that the partnership in security and diplomatic affairs between the United States and the European Union should become closer, should remain about the same, or should the [IN EUROPE: European Union / IN THE US: United States] take a more independent approach from the [IN EUROPE: United States / IN US: European Union]? www.transatlantictrends.org 18
Transatlantic Trends 14 Overview 1. Turkey 2. The Transatlantic Relationship 3. The Economy, the EU, and Immigration 4. Transatlantic Security Cooperation 5. Russia www.transatlantictrends.org 19
Percent Widespread Effect of Economic Crisis Transatlantic Trends 14 1 9 14 8 6 95 47 91 64 81 7876 7473 72 6 64 62 62 42 5557 58 52 5 46 47 56 3 31 22 Greece Portugal Spain Turkey U.S. Italy France United Kingdom EU Poland *Russia Netherlands Germany *Sweden Q18: Regarding the extent to which you or your family has been personally affect by the current economic crisis, would you say that your family's financial situa on has been greatly affected, somewhat affected, not really affected, or not affected at all? * Sweden data from 11, Russian data from 12 www.transatlantictrends.org
Percent Transatlantic Trends 14 Majorities See EU Membership as Beneficial 1 8 6 21 76 71 13 73 66 24 28 71 65 58 57 26 26 33 36 36 63 6 63 61 56 55 48 49 52 49 42 29 53 53 45 51 Bad Good 13 Q22: Generally speaking, do you think that [COUNTRY]'s membership in the European Union [EU COUNTRIES: has been]/[turkey: would be] a good thing or a bad thing for [COUNTRY]? www.transatlantictrends.org 21
Transatlantic Trends 14 EU Membership Good because of Democracy, Free Movement 5 1 1 EU is a community of democracies Free movement 16 31 Maintained peace 19 27 Strengthened European economies More than one op on None of the above Don't Know Q23a: What is the most important reason EU membership has been a good thing? * Asked of the 65% of Europeans who said EU membership has been a good thing for their country www.transatlantictrends.org 22
Transatlantic Trends 14...But Bad Because of its Effect on Na onal Economies 13 11 5 2 2 23 45 Harmed our country s economy Too much authority Undermined our culture Is undemocra c More than one op on None of the above Don't Know Q23b: What is the most important reason EU membership has been a bad thing? * Asked of the 28% of Europeans who said EU membership has been a bad thing for their country www.transatlantictrends.org 23
Percent Majori es Support Na onal Control over Budgets Transatlantic Trends 14 1 8 6 18 18 22 28 32 34 35 37 37 29 36 EU should have more authority over budgets Greece 79 77 73 67 64 61 61 6 6 6 59 United Kingdom Sweden Netherlands EU Italy Spain France Germany Poland Portugal Na onal government control over budgets Q21: Some people say that because of recent economic difficul es, the EU should have more authority over Member States economic and budgetary policies. Other people say that each member state should retain this authority for itself. Which view is closer to your own? www.transatlantictrends.org 24
Percent Transatlantic Trends 14 Dissa sfac on with Government's Handling of Immigra on 1 8 22 25 23 27 33 34 36 46 6 44 6 5 67 Approve 77 75 73 71 67 64 64 6 57 51 48 Spain Greece United Kingdom U.S. Turkey France 38 36 26 Italy EU Netherlands Germany Portugal Sweden Poland Russia Q3.3: Do you approve or disapprove of how [COUNTRY]'s government is handling immigra on from other countries? Disapprove www.transatlantictrends.org 25
What Do We Think Motivates Immigrants? Transatlantic Trends 14 Work Seek social benefits Seek asylum United with family members Study None of the above Don't know EU U.S. 18 5 4 4 3 7 7 6 2 3 46 26 Turkey 29 Russia 4 3 1 2 13 4 2 2 2 6 17 22 16 52 Q26a: In your opinion, what do you think is the most common reason for immigrants (from other countries) to come to [COUNTRY]? www.transatlantictrends.org 26
Transatlantic Trends 14 Turks Worried About Refugees 3 Worried Not worried 77 Don't know Q29.5: Can you tell me if you are worried or not worried about refugees? www.transatlantictrends.org 27
Transatlantic Trends 14... and Feel Refugee Policies Should be More Restric ve 1 4 More restric ve 21 66 Less restric ve About right now Don't know Q28: And how about refugees? Do you think that [COUNTRY]'s policies towards refugees should be... www.transatlantictrends.org 28
Transatlantic Trends 14 Overview 1. Turkey 2. The Transatlantic Relationship 3. The Economy, the EU, and Immigration 4. Transatlantic Security Cooperation 5. Russia www.transatlantictrends.org 29
Percent Transatlantic Trends 14 NATO S ll Essen al in U.S., EU 1 U.S. EU Turkey 8 6 69 56 62 6 61 6 6 62 62 6 58 58 61 57 55 59 59 55 56 53 55 52 44 35 38 35 37 38 39 3 58 49 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 Q1: Some people say that NATO is s ll essen al to our country's security. Others say it is no longer essen al. Which of these views is closer to your own? [if respondent asks: 'NATO is the Alliance among the USA, Canada, and many European states'] www.transatlantictrends.org 3
Percent Transatlantic Trends 14 8 Li le Support for NATO Missions Outside of Europe, U.S. 73 6 59 53 55 53 49 57 43 43 41 57 41 43 38 36 Territorial defense of Europe Military opera ons outside of U.S. and Europe Providing arms or training U.S. EU Turkey Providing arms or training to countries like Ukraine Stability in places like Afghanistan Q11.1-5: Should NATO be engaged in the following missions? 1. Territorial defense of Europe 2. Military opera ons outside of U.S. and Europe 3. Providing arms or training 4. Providing arms or training to countries like Ukraine 5. Stability in places like Afgahnistan www.transatlantictrends.org 31
Percent Transatlantic Trends 14 1 8 Most Willing to Risk Conflict with Russia to Support Ukraine 6 73 67 65 64 59 58 58 57 53 52 48 44 42 Sweden Poland Germany Portugal United Kingdom EU France U.S. Netherlands Italy Spain Greece Turkey Q16a: Should the European Union (in US: the United States) con nue to provide economic and poli cal support to Ukraine, even if there is a risk of increasing conflict with Russia? www.transatlantictrends.org 32
Percent Transatlantic Trends 14 Plurali es in EU, U.S. Support Sanc ons Against Iran EU U.S. Russia Turkey 32 32 17 Impose economic sanc ons 21 11 23 Offer economic incen ves 17 13 14 13 11 Use computer technology to sabotage nuclear installa ons 9 6 8 1 Provide support to opponents of the government 12 6 4 6 6 Take military ac on 4 1112 Accept that Iran could acquire nuclear weapons Q14: As you may know, efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons are under way. Which of the following do you think is the best op on? www.transatlantictrends.org 33
Transatlantic Trends 14 Overview 1. Turkey 2. The Transatlantic Relationship 3. The Economy, the EU, and Immigration 4. Transatlantic Security Cooperation 5. Russia www.transatlantictrends.org 34
Transatlantic Trends 14 Russia Sees Opportunity with India and China 14 1 2 2 7 36 Emerging powers such as India and China CIS states Countries of the European Union Russia should act alone The United States 29 More than one op on Don't know Q8: On interna onal ma ers, with which one of the following do you think Russia should cooperate most closely? www.transatlantictrends.org 35
Percent Transatlantic Trends 14 Limited Approval for Handling of Russia Policy 8 President Obama Own government 6 65 62 62 56 59 56 53 56 49 52 47 48 48 46 49 45 41 41 27 33 35 39 26 25 Netherlands Italy Sweden Portugal France United Kingdom EU Germany Spain Poland U.S. Turkey Greece 7 Russia Q2.2, 3.2: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the President of the United States Barack Obama/[COUNTRY] s government is managing rela ons with Russia? www.transatlantictrends.org 36
Transatlantic Trends 14 Key Findings Turks are turning towards Europe Europeans support a more independent transatlantic relationship, U.S. looks for more burden sharing Opinion of U.S. leadership drops dramatically in Germany Majorities support sanctions against Russia and are willing to risk increasing conflict to support Ukraine Russians view the U.S. and EU unfavorably, but see opportunity to work with emerging powers www.transatlantictrends.org 37
Transatlantic Trends 14 For more information about methodology, specific countries, and the full top-line dataset please visit: www.transatlantictrends.org www.facebook.com/gmfus www.twitter.com/gmfus www.transatlantictrends.org 38