Online supplement to: Mader, Matthias & Schoen, Harald. 217. Ideological voting in context: The case of Germany during the Merkel era. In: Schoen, Harald & Roßteutscher, Sigrid & Schmitt-Beck, Rüdiger & Weßels, Bernhard & Wolf, Christof (Eds.): Voters and Voting in Context: Multiple Contexts and the Heterogeneous German Electorate. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Table A1: Field time and sample size of GLES Online Trackings Welle Field Time No. of Obs. GLES Online Tracking, T1 3 April 29 5 May 29 2,45 GLES Online Tracking, T2 27 May 29 5 June 29 1,71 GLES Online Tracking, T3 3 July 29 13 July 29 1,133 GLES Online Tracking, T4 31 July 29 11 August 29 1,144 GLES Online Tracking, T5 24 August 29 1 September 29 1,139 GLES Online Tracking, T6 18 September 29 27 September 29 1,153 GLES Online Tracking, T7 29 September 29 8 October 29 1,147 GLES Online Tracking, T8 1 December 29 2 December 29 1,131 GLES Online Tracking, T9 15 April 21 23 April 21 1,136 GLES Online Tracking, T1 24 June 21 5 July 21 1,138 GLES Online Tracking, T11 16 September 21 26 September 21 1,148 GLES Online Tracking, T12 9 December 21 19 December 21 1,144 GLES Online Tracking, T13 9 March 211 19 March 211 1,137 GLES Online Tracking, T14 23 May 211 3 June 211 1,144 GLES Online Tracking, T15 24 August 211 3 September 211 1,158 GLES Online Tracking, T16 8 December 211 18 December 211 1,114 GLES Online Tracking, T17 2 May 212 15 May 212 1,16 GLES Online Tracking, T18 17 September 212 1 October 212 1,75 GLES Online Tracking, T19 4 January 213 19 January 213 1,34 GLES Online Tracking, T2 24 May 213 8 June 213 1,48 GLES Online Tracking, T21 6 September 213 21 September 213 1,12 GLES Online Tracking, T22 29 November 213 13 December 213 1,49 GLES Online Tracking, T23 21 February 214 7 March 214 1,23 GLES Online Tracking, T24 9 May 214 23 May 214 1,44 GLES Online Tracking, T25 29 August 214 13 September 214 1,11 GLES Online Tracking, T26 21 November 214 5 December 214 1,19 GLES Online Tracking, T27 27 February 215 13 March 215 1,29 GLES Online Tracking, T28 5 June 215 19 June 215 1,19 GLES Online Tracking, T29 11 September 215 25 September 215 1,27 GLES Online Tracking, T3 4 December 215 18 December 215 1,31 1
Figure A1: Media salience of health and retirement issues and partisan actors in Germany, 29-215 1 Retirement and health issues 8 Percent of articles 6 4 2 Dec-9 (T8) Mar-1 (T9) 3 Jun-1 (T1) Sep-1 (T11) Dec-1 (T12) May-13 (T2) Left partisan actors Jan-14 (13) May-14 (14) Jun-15 (T28) Dec-15 (T3) 3 Right partisan actors 25 25 Percent of articles 2 15 1 5 Notes: Reported are percentage of coded articles of more than 1 words in which relevant key terms appeared least two times. See for the specific list of dictionnaire codes used in creating the variables. Table A2: Operationalization of media content variables Variable Content/Codes Health and Retirement (CAT364) retirement issues Health care (CAT366) Left Partisan actors Right Partisan actors Dec-9 (T8) Mar-1 (T9) Jun-1 (T1) Sep-1 (T11) Dec-1 (T12) May-13 (T2) Jan-14 (13) May-14 (14) Jun-15 (T28) Dec-15 (T3) Percent of articles 2 15 1 5 Dec-9 (T8) Mar-1 (T9) Jun-1 (T1) Sep-1 (T11) Dec-1 (T12) May-13 (T2) Jan-14 (13) May-14 (14) Jun-15 (T28) Dec-15 (T3) Left political parties in the German Bundestag, i.e. SPD, Grünen, Linke Leaders of these parties (Ministers, leaders of parliamentary factions, chairman of a party, chancellor candidate Steinbrück) (Codes: CAT11 + CAT12 + CAT125 + CAT35 + CAT222 + CAT223 + CAT224 + CAT225 + CAT227 + CAT229 + CAT271 + CAT272 + CAT273 + CAT276 + CAT277 + CAT278 + CAT291 + CAT293 + CAT294 + CAT295 + CAT296 + CAT297 + CAT298 + CAT299 + CAT3 + CAT31 + CAT35) Right political parties in the German Bundestag, i.e. CDU and CSU, plus AfD Leaders of these parties (Chancellor Merkel, leaders of parliamentary factions, chairman of a party) (Codes: CAT1 + CAT15 + CAT115 + CAT155 + CAT21 + CAT22 + CAT23 + CAT24 + CAT25 + CAT26 + CAT27 + CAT28 + CAT29 + CAT21 + CAT211 + CAT212 + CAT213 + CAT214 + CAT215 + CAT216 + CAT217 + CAT218 + CAT219 + CAT22 + CAT221 + CAT226 + CAT228 + CAT23 + CAT27 + CAT274 + CAT275 + CAT29 + CAT292 + CAT36 + CAT37 + CAT38) 2
Figure A2: Ideological voting for the SPD among the politically involved and uninvolved, 29-215 Apr-9 (T1) May-9 (T2) Jul-9 (T3) Jul-9 (T4) Aug-9 (T5) Apr-9 (T1) May-9 (T2) Jul-9 (T3) Jul-9 (T4) Aug-9 (T5) 29 Left identity Sep-9 (T6) Sep-9 (T7) Dec-9 (T8) Mar-1 (T9) Jun-1 (T1) Sep-1 (T11) Dec-1 (T12) Right identity High involvement Sep-9 (T6) Sep-9 (T7) Dec-9 (T8) Mar-1 (T9) Jun-1 (T1) Sep-1 (T11) Dec-1 (T12) 213 May-12 (T2) Dec-15 (T3) Low involvement May-12 (T2) Dec-15 (T3) Notes: Displayed are differences in the predicted probability of voting intentions between citizens without ideological identity and citizens holding a strong left or right identity, respectively; bars represent 95% confidence intervals; due to insufficient numbers of observation, in some cases it is impossible to estimate coefficients. 3
Figure A3: Ideological voting for the Green Party among the politically involved and uninvolved, 29-215 Apr-9 (T1) May-9 (T2) Jul-9 (T3) Jul-9 (T4) Aug-9 (T5) Apr-9 (T1) May-9 (T2) Jul-9 (T3) Jul-9 (T4) 29 Left identity Sep-9 (T6) Sep-9 (T7) Dec-9 (T8) Mar-1 (T9) Jun-1 (T1) Sep-1 (T11) Dec-1 (T12) Right identity High involvement Aug-9 (T5) Sep-9 (T6) Sep-9 (T7) Dec-9 (T8) Mar-1 (T9) Jun-1 (T1) Sep-1 (T11) Dec-1 (T12) 213 May-12 (T2) Dec-15 (T3) Low involvement May-12 (T2) Dec-15 (T3) Notes: Displayed are differences in the predicted probability of voting intentions between citizens without ideological identity and citizens holding a strong left or right identity, respectively; bars represent 95% confidence intervals; due to insufficient numbers of observation, in some cases it is impossible to estimate coefficients. 4
Figure A4: Ideological voting for the Left Party among the politically involved and uninvolved, 29-215 Apr-9 (T1) May-9 (T2) Jul-9 (T3) Jul-9 (T4) 29 Left identity Apr-9 (T1) May-9 (T2) Jul-9 (T3) Jul-9 (T4) Aug-9 (T5) Sep-9 (T6) Sep-9 (T7) Dec-9 (T8) Mar-1 (T9) Jun-1 (T1) Sep-1 (T11) Dec-1 (T12) Right identity High involvement Aug-9 (T5) Sep-9 (T6) Sep-9 (T7) Dec-9 (T8) Mar-1 (T9) Jun-1 (T1) Sep-1 (T11) Dec-1 (T12) 213 May-12 (T2) Dec-15 (T3) Low involvement May-12 (T2) Dec-15 (T3) Notes: Displayed are differences in the predicted probability of voting intentions between citizens without ideological identity and citizens holding a strong left or right identity, respectively; bars represent 95% confidence intervals; due to insufficient numbers of observation, in some cases it is impossible to estimate coefficients. 5
Figure A1: Predicted effects of ideological identities on voting intentions for the SPD depending on the salience of health and retirement issues (young and elderly population).3 Elderly Young Average marginal effect.1 -.1 -.3 Low Medium High Salience of retirement and health issues Figure A2: Predicted effects of ideological identities on voting intentions for the Green Party depending on the salience of health and retirement issues (young and elderly population).3 Elderly Young Average marginal effect.1 -.1 -.3 Low Medium High Salience of retirement and health issues Figure A3: Predicted effects of ideological identities on voting intentions for the Left Party depending on the salience of health and retirement issues (young and elderly population).3 Elderly Young Average marginal effect.1 -.1 -.3 Low Medium High Salience of retirement and health issues Notes for A5 through A7: Displayed are average marginal effects of the left-right ideological self-placement on voting intentions; bars represent 95% confidence intervals; low salience represents the minimum salience observed in the time span under consideration; analogously, high represents the highest recorded value. 6