3, :,, ;,,,,, ;, ; ; ; ;, (: 200083) D80 A 1006-9550 (2007) 12-0006 - 09,, :,,, 20,,, :,;, ( ), 3 2006 ; 2004 (04JJDZH017) : Martin W ight, Power Politics, Leices2 ter: Leicester University Press, 1978; Robert Gilp in, W ar and Change in W orld Politics, New York: Cambridge University Press, 1981; John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, ton & Company L td., 2001. New York: W. W. Nor2 Fareed Zakaria, From W ealth to Power: The U nusual O rigins of A2 m erica s W orld Role, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1988, p11. 6
2007 12 ;,,,, (James E. Auer),, :,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, :, ;, ;,,,,,,, 16, 100, 16 17 1819 20 James E. Auer, Robyn L im, TheMaritime Basis of American Se2 curity in EastA sia, N avalw ar College Review, Vol. 54, No. 1, 2001, pp1 39-47. James E. Auer, Robyn L im, TheMaritime Basis of American Se2 curity in East A sia, pp1 43-45. :,, 2003 :, : [],:, :, 1997,48,23 1,86, 2004,12 [], :, :, 1997,23 7
:,,,, 500,, (),,, :,,( sur2 p lus security),, ( leading economy),,,,, :,,,,,, 19, 2002,500 ( 1), ( 2), 8 1(15002000) 16 17 ( 18 19 20 21 ) () ( ) () : [] :, :, :, 2003,47 2 ( + ) + ( + ) + + ( + ) + + + ( + + ) + ++ + + :,:,, 2004 4,98102 George Modelski and W illiam R. Thomp son, Seapower in Global Politics, 1949 1993, Seattle: University of W ashington Press, 1988, pp13-26. George Modelski and W illiam R. Thomp son, Seapower in Global Politics, 19491993, p1106. George Modelski and W illiam R. Thomp son, Seapower in Global Politics, 19491993, p125. :,, 2006 5,24 : :, :, 1998,433434 George Modelski, Long Cycles in W orld Politics, sity ofw ashington Press, 1987. Seattle: Univer2 [], :, :, 1994,136137
2007 12,,?,,, ( ),,,,,,,,,, (, ) : 20 :,,,,,, :,, (), 16 1588,,,,, :,, 17 :, :,,, 17 5070,,, 1673,,,, : ( ) ( ) ( ), :,, 2003 5,15 [],: : (),243 [],: : 2,258 :,56 [], : 2, :, 1972,255 (), :, 1998,215 232, :, 2005,5253 372 []: 3, :, 1975, 9
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,?,?,,,,,,,,,,,19 2 /3,,,,,, () : 19 70,,1815,,,, - -,,,,,,, :,, 19 80, : ;,,,, :, :, :, 2003,203 :,151 Stephen M. W alt, The O rigins of A lliances, Cornell University Press, 1987, p121. :, :, 2000,109 :,129 :,147 Ithaca, New York: 10
2007 12,, (A lfred Von Tip itz), :,,,,, :,,,,,,1902,, ; 1904, ; 1907,,,,, 1882,,,, :,,,,, 1918,,, (Nazi geopoli2 tics),,,, ():,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,, :,,,, :,,,, :,111 [],:, :, 1992,37 :,18 :,63 :,64 :,, 2006 5,25 [],:, :, 1994,18 :,367 11
,,1814,,,,,, (),,,,,,,,, : 19 20,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, (, : ),,,,,,,, 20, :,296 : 3, :, 1995,277 :,, 2001 1,167 :,, 2001 1,167 :,18 12
2007 12,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( Robert S. Ross),,,, 21,,,,,,,, 211 /4,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, :,, 2000 10 []: : 21,, 2000 11,6973 :, :, 2003,307323 13
,,,,,,, 1997 19981 19,, ; ;, :,, :,,,,,,,,,,,, ;,,, ( ),,,,,,, ;,,,,,,,,,,,,,, [ : 2007 209 217 ] [ : 2007 210 226 ] [ :] :,, 2002 4 U. S. Pacific Command Public Affairs, U. S. Pacific Command HostsMaritime Safety Meeting with China, June 3, 2000, http / / www. pacom. m il/news/news2000 / re107-00. htm. 14
No. 12, 2007 W orld Econom ics and Politics Abstracts Reflection s on Seapower and the R ise of Grea t Powers L iu Zhongm in( 6) In W estern international relations theories, there are two remarkable p ropositions and related issues on seapower and the rise of great powers. The first p roposition is that seapower is a necessary condition for global power. Relatededly, there is the issue of how to understand scientifically the effects of seapower on the rise of great powers. The author points out that mostw estern scholars emphasize the importance of seapower, but they also emphasize the importance of the econo2 my, technology, and institutional innovation. However, history indicates that there are no supernatural effects of seapow2 er on the rise of great powers. The second p roposition is that the new seapower countries, especially the land2sea coun2 tries, challenge the existing global hegemony of the sea, often leading to conflict and turbulence. Based on emp irical a2 nalysis, the author concludes that there is no historical logic to conflict between new seapowers and the existing global hegemony of the sea, and the key issue lies in the strategic choice of the new seapowers as well as in the different characteristics and themes of the international system at various tim es. Resources, Technology, and Econom ic Growth Theory Ca iy im ing( 15) In stitution s, and the Change of Econom ic Hegem ony: Ba sed on Property R ights Theory The change in econom ic hegemonycan be interp reted as the following two questions: how does a non2hegemonic country exceed a former hegemony in term s of econom ic strength? And then, why and how does the catching2up non2heg2 emonic power becom e a new hegemony? Given that econom ic grow th is decided by resources, technology, and institu2 tions, theexceedingm ight occur when resources, technology, and institutions in the econom ic hegemony have a posi2 tive and large net impact on the non2hegemonic country. Based on the theory of p roperty rights, whether a change in he2 gemony occurs mainly depends on the relative value of the expected benefits from the internalization of externalities and expected costs. Tw ice in history the theory of p roperty rights and the theory of econom ic grow th have p rovided an effec2 tive perspective for the changes in econom ic hegemony and they may also p rovide a perspective on futureforecasts of the global econom ic structure. Cyclica l L og ic to the Tran sition of Hegem ony:m odelsk i s L ong Cycle Theory in In terna tiona l Rela tion s and its W eakness Cu i J ian shu( 24) Modelski s long cycle theory is one of the most important schools in W estern IR theories that study the evolution of inter2 national politics. Its fundamental assump tions are: leadership is needed in the world system; such a role is derived from global war; seapower is a necessary condition for its establishm ent; the evolution of international politics is based on a cyclical model, in which dom ination by the leading power in the international system norm ally lasts about 100 to 120 years. The contribution of this theory is that it offers an exp licit m acro2paradigm for the study of changes in international 3