Population & Community Structures October 2013 Page 1
Doncaster has 6% of the overall population in Yorkshire and Humber, but all counts of migration show it receives less than 6% of newcomers. Doncaster has a small proportion of the population who were not born in the UK, at 5% compared to 8% for the Yorkshire and Humber as a whole. 2150 pupils at school in Doncaster have a first language that is not English. This is equivalent to 6% of primary pupils and 5% of secondary pupils; both figures are small increases on the previous year, but remain much lower than the Yorkshire and Humber averages of 15% and 10% respectively. Only 4 in every 1000 new GP registrations in Doncaster are made by people who previously lived abroad, compared with an average of 8.5 per 1000 across Yorkshire and Humber. Births to mothers who were born outside the UK are lower than average but increasing, totalling 13% of all new births in 2011 compared to 18% across the Yorkshire and Humber. 1.9 The overall number of new migrant workers arriving in Doncaster in 2011 was around 1500, showing no dramatic change. This relative stability masks a rise in arrivals from accession countries, partly offset by a decline in arrivals from non-accession countries. The most significant change was an increase in Polish arrivals (nearly 200 more arrivals than previous year) and a decrease in Latvian arrivals (almost 100 fewer than previous year). 1.10 Figure 3 shows the net international and internal migration into Doncaster. There has been a history of positive international migration (more people coming into Doncaster from foreign countries than people leaving to foreign countries) and negative internal migration (people living in Doncaster moving to somewhere else in the UK). The internal migration is likely to be influenced by migration flows for higher education with Doncaster students moving to higher education institutions in the UK but with very small numbers being replaced or retained at the University Centre Doncaster. Figure 3: Net International and Internal Migration 4 1.11 The projections of net international migration into Doncaster are 500-600 per year up to 2031 which is lower than the period 2006-2008 but is higher than 2009 and 2010 levels. There are various data sources that can be used including the number of national insurance number 4 Local Migration Profile Doncaster, June 2013. Page 4
1.13 Doncaster is growing more ethnically diverse and greater proportions of BME groups feature within Doncaster s population. This increase is especially marked for the White Other population which concurs with other information presented in this paper illustrating the inward migration of people from Eastern European countries and the high numbers of Gypsy and Traveller populations. See Figure 6. Ward Populations Figure 6: Number of People by Ethnic Group in 2001 and 2011 6 1.14 The full ward population profile is shown in figure 10. The information highlights some differences between the actual population (18+) provided in the census and the number of people on the electoral register particularly in some wards. The biggest differences are in Central Ward where the number of people on the electoral role is 19.2% below the actual population. Although there is eligibility criteria for people to be able to vote, all of the EU, UK dependent territories and commonwealth countries are eligible to vote in some way. There are some notable exceptions including Turkish and Middle East and Asian populations but this does not explain the full difference in figures. 1.15 Figure 7 shows the distribution of the variance between electoral register populations and actual populations in Doncaster. It is clear that the urban centre stretching into the northern conurbations along with Thorne are the areas that show the biggest difference in having less people on the electoral register than in the actual population. Consideration should be given to Prison Populations and potential discrepancies between these datasets. The ward with the highest variance with more people on the electoral register compared to the actual population is the Great North Road Ward; further information will be required to explain this. 6 Local Migration Profile & Census 2001/2011 Data. Page 6
1.20 We aim to increase the overall registration role achieved at the annual canvass from the current 867%. We also have a plan and target to achieve at least a 50% return rate across all areas of the Borough. Historically, some areas in Central and Wheatley achieve less than 50% return (between 39% and 43%) and these areas will have specific targeted communications and different canvass methods. For example, rather than employ traditional canvassers in these areas, we will use neighbourhood workers who know the areas and communities to maximise registration. Because we also know that young people are under represented in all wards, our plans also include specific engagement with schools, colleges and apprenticeship programmes. 1.21 As we move to IER, we will maximise new data sharing powers, so that IER becomes a whole council, being done in the course of ordinary business process e.g. housing, benefit, parking, apprentice applications etc, rather than an electoral activity. Page 9
Name Of Ward Total Population Estimated Population 18+ Estimated Electorate December 2013 18+ Pop vs Electorate Est % of Households on Electoral Roll % BME % Cannot Speak English % Christian % Population 20-34 Balby 15332 11,457 11,394-0.6% 85.3% 10.2% 1.4% 62.6% 21.4% Central 18207 13,935 11,263-19.2% 73.6% 30.6% 6.5% 55.1% 27.3% Town Moor 14436 10,921 10,491-3.9% 92.0% 16.4% 2.9% 59.8% 19.3% Wheatley 14742 11,455 10,225-10.7% 77.0% 24.2% 5.1% 59.2% 24.8% Bessacarr/Cantley 14408 11,549 11,575 0.2% 86.7% 12.2% 1.1% 64.8% 17.2% Armthorpe 14457 11,303 11,126-1.6% 87.5% 6.8% 1.5% 69.1% 20.6% Conisbrough/Denaby 14333 10,828 10,589-2.2% 88.3% 2.7% 0.2% 67.2% 18.8% Rossington 13537 10,245 10,005-2.3% 84.1% 3.5% 0.3% 66.3% 18.9% Hatfield 13380 10,347 10,364 0.2% 88.8% 3.1% 0.4% 69.5% 17.4% Edlington/Warmsworth 13673 10,543 10,582 0.4% 89.2% 4.0% 0.5% 67.5% 17.6% Torne Valley 12209 10,018 10,089 0.7% 86.5% 3.5% 0.3% 73.1% 12.7% Edenthorpe/Kirk Sandall/ Barnby Dun 13368 10,551 10,844 2.8% 98.3% 3.7% 0.2% 73.2% 14.5% Finningley 15209 11,898 12,243 2.9% 93.3% 6.9% 0.6% 70.6% 13.9% Great North Road 15163 11,608 12,068 4.0% 91.5% 4.4% 0.3% 65.3% 17.6% Bentley 14191 10,738 10,247-4.6% 84.4% 6.2% 0.5% 60.3% 21.2% Adwick 15911 11,742 11,082-5.6% 82.3% 3.2% 0.3% 62.5% 19.5% Askern Spa 12968 10,073 10,060-0.1% 87.8% 2.7% 0.2% 68.6% 15.8% Thorne 16180 13,049 10,934-16.2% 92.5% 7.3% 0.7% 68.2% 23.6% Stainforth/Moorends 13573 10,092 9,918-1.7% 74.8% 3.9% 0.5% 68.5% 18.2% Mexborough 15244 11,724 11,722 0.0% 89.4% 3.8% 0.6% 66.6% 19.8% Sprotbrough 11881 9,475 9,714 2.5% 92.4% 3.2% 0.4% 72.2% 13.6% DONCASTER 302402 233,552 226,535-3.0% 86.7% 8.2% 1.2% 65.9% 19.0% Figure 10: Ward Information Table Page 10