Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre Global Strategic Trends Programme overview Finland June 2017
Introduction DCDC is the MOD s thinktank. Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre
A Joint, Integrated and multinational staff Director Military Assistant Chief of Staff Pol Sec x4 Head Futures and Strategic Analysis Head Concepts Head Doctrine Assistant Head Legal Assistant Head Research and Analysis Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre
Continuum of thought Future strategic context Future themes and deductions Strategic direction Vision and tasks Future concepts How we will fight capability insights Strategic Force Development Joint Force Development NSS and SDSR Concepts Command Force Development Strategic Trends Programme Doctrine Concept Lead Concept lead Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre
Strategic DCDC trends functions programme Strategic context for planning and decisions Continuous programme, running since 2001 A programme looking out 30 years Not the Future but an aid to thinking about the future Our principal method is to identify robust trends and project these forward Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre
Supporting Our Senior Leaders My sense of the MOD s Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre, its product Global Strategic Trends is that we are internationally competitive at being able to set out how the world is evolving over time. General Sir Richard Barrons Former Commander of Joint Forces Command Giving evidence to the Defence Committee Global Strategic Trends was one of the main contributions to the policy-making process that culminated in the 2015 UK strategy. House of Commons briefing paper 7431 Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre
Reaching a Global Audience 15,000+ copies of the publication demanded and distributed. Over 22,000 views of the supporting online animation. International media coverage to a potential global audience of over 15 million people. Hundreds of briefings given to key collaborators, partners and allies across Whitehall, Europe and the World. Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre
Producing Global Strategic Trends Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre
The future is a wicked problem Cannot Can Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre
Trends based approach
Number of Pubs Number of pubs in the UK 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year
Joe Farman discovers hole in the Ozone 1985
CFCs Parts per Trillion Ozone Hole sq km CFCs and the ozone hole 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 Year 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1979 1985 1992 1998 2004 2010 Year
The problem of complexity
Identifying GST6 work-strands Identified GST6 work-strands Survey Lit Search Much greater GST6 work-strands use of outsourced research Feedback Forms GST Review Launch Workshop Thematic 1. Environment (including climate change) 2. Resources, materials and waste 3. Food & water 4. Energy 5. Demography (ethnicity, migration & ageing) 6. The human habitat 7. The built environment (where we will live) 8. Globalisation & its impacts 9. The human race (health and augmentation) 10. Culture (identity, and cultural homogenisation) 11. Community & values (rights and relationships) 12. Work, lifestyle and leisure 13. Art, expression and design 14. Belief systems (including religion and ideology) 15. The global political order and governance 16. The role of the state, non-state actors and individuals Greater degree of international collaboration 17. The global economic system (including money and value) 18. Inequality 19. Law, justice and ethics. 20. Conflict, violence and security 21. Crime and corruption 22. Artificial intelligence 23. Transport 24. Automation 25. Manufacturing 26. Education, knowledge and learning 27. Communications and information Geographic 1. Asia-Pacific (including Oceania) 2. Central Asia 3. The Middle East 4. The High North (including the Arctic) 5. Africa 6. Europe 7. Russia 8. Oceans 9. Space 10. North America 11. Latin & Central America and the Caribbean 12. Antarctica & southern islands Cabinet Office hosted Stakeholder series of meetings
Bringing it all together Artificial Intelligence Communication and Information Technology Future of the Human Race Automation Economy Environment Transport Demography Urbanisation Agriculture Culture
Supporting Our Senior Leaders Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre