NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll October 30, 2016 North Carolina Questionnaire Residents: n=1,136 MOE +/- 2.9% Registered Voters: n=1,018 MOE +/- 3.1% Likely Voters: n=780 MOE +/- 3.5% Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding. Screener <Marist Poll Introduction> Are you 18 years of age or older? Do you consider your permanent home address to be in North Carolina? HH SELECTION LANDLINE FRAME ONLY GENDER GUESS Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president? Approve 50 48 Disapprove 45 46 Unsure 5 5 Approve 49 49 Disapprove 44 45 Unsure 7 6 Approve 48 50 Disapprove 43 44 Unsure 9 6 If November's presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are [including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or already voted]: Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, the Democrats 50 48 Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the Republicans 44 43 Neither 3 5 Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, the Democrats 48 48 Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the Republicans 43 41 Neither 4 6 Undecided 3 3 NBC News/WSJ/Marist North Carolina Poll October 30, 2016; Page 1
Would you say you strongly support <candidate>, somewhat support them, or do you think you might vote differently on Election Day? Strongly support 69 71 Somewhat support 29 23 Might vote differently 2 5 Unsure 1 1 Strongly support 66 67 Somewhat support 31 25 Might vote differently 2 6 If November's presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are [including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or already voted]: * Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 47 45 Donald Trump, the Republican 41 41 Gary Johnson, the Libertarian 8 9 Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 46 45 Donald Trump, the Republican 40 39 Gary Johnson, the Libertarian 9 10 Undecided 3 4 *Green Party candidate Jill Stein has write-in status. NBC News/WSJ/Marist North Carolina Poll October 30, 2016; Page 2
Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Hillary Clinton? Favorable 41 42 Unfavorable 55 56 Unsure/Never heard 4 2 Favorable 40 41 Unfavorable 55 57 Unsure/Never heard 5 2 Favorable 40 41 Unfavorable 54 57 Unsure/Never heard 5 2 Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Donald Trump? Favorable 35 35 Unfavorable 60 60 Unsure/Never heard 6 4 Favorable 33 33 Unfavorable 60 62 Unsure/Never heard 7 5 Favorable 32 32 Unfavorable 60 63 Unsure/Never heard 7 6 If November's election for U.S. Senate in North Carolina were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are [including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or already voted]: Deborah Ross, the Democrat 48 46 Richard Burr, the Republican 48 46 Undecided 3 6 Deborah Ross, the Democrat 46 46 Richard Burr, the Republican 48 45 Undecided 4 7 NBC News/WSJ/Marist North Carolina Poll October 30, 2016; Page 3
Would you say you strongly support <candidate>, somewhat support <candidate>, or do you think you might vote differently on Election Day? Strongly support 55 57 Somewhat support 39 34 Might vote differently 5 8 Strongly support 52 53 Somewhat support 40 36 Might vote differently 7 9 If November's election for governor in North Carolina were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are [including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or already voted]: Roy Cooper, the Democrat 51 49 Pat McCrory, the Republican 45 48 Roy Cooper, the Democrat 50 48 Pat McCrory, the Republican 45 47 Other 3 1 Undecided 3 4 Would you say you strongly support <candidate>, somewhat support <candidate>, or do you think you might vote differently on Election Day? Strongly support 73 57 Somewhat support 24 34 Might vote differently 2 8 Unsure 1 1 Strongly support 70 54 Somewhat support 26 36 Might vote differently 3 8 NBC News/WSJ/Marist North Carolina Poll October 30, 2016; Page 4
Are you male or female? Male 46 47 Female 54 53 Male 47 47 Female 53 53 Male 48 48 Female 52 52 Nature of the Sample: NBC News/WSJ/Marist North Carolina Poll of 1,136 Adults This survey of 1,136 adults was conducted October 25th and October 26th, 2016 by The Marist Poll sponsored and funded in partnership with NBC News and The Wall Street Journal. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state of North Carolina were contacted on landline or mobile numbers and interviewed in English or Spanish by telephone using live interviewers. Landline telephone numbers were randomly selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state of North Carolina from ASDE Survey Sampler, Inc. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its population. Respondents in the household were randomly selected by first asking for the youngest male. This landline sample was combined with respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers from Survey Sampling International. Assistance was provided by Luce Research for data collection. After the interviews were completed, the two samples were combined and balanced to reflect the 2013 American Community Survey 5-year estimates for age, gender, income, and region, except for race, which is from the 2010 census. Results are statistically significant within ±2.9 percentage points. There are 1,018 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±3.1 percentage points. There are 780 likely voters defined by a probability turnout model which determines the likelihood respondents will participate in the 2016 Presidential Election based upon their chance of vote, interest in the election, and past election participation. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±3.5 percentage points. The error margin was not adjusted for sample weights and increases for cross-tabulations. For nature of the sample and additional tables, please visit The Marist Poll NBC News/WSJ/Marist North Carolina Poll October 30, 2016; Page 5