MBS Bulletin Q u a r t e r l y D e m o g r a p h i c E s t i m a t e s, O c t o b e r 2 0 1 8 1 Quarterly Demographic Estimates O c t o b e r 2 0 1 8 Highlights Manitoba's total population was estimated at 1,356,836 residents as of October 1, 2018, up 4,682 individuals from the July 1, 2018 estimate. growth continues on a twelve-month basis, with Manitoba s increase since October 1, 2017 estimated at 16,060 people, or 1.20%. Although a net outflow of interprovincial migrants has a negative impact on Manitoba's growth, high immigration levels more than offset the loss. Per '000? A rate per thousand population is calculated by dividing the number of events for a time period by the population at the mid-point of the period, then multiplying by 1,000. These crude rates allow for quick comparisons among characteristics or jurisdictions. In this document, the mid-point population is the average of population estimates for the start and end of the quarter. Next Release: March 21, 2019. Manitoba Quarterly and Demographic Estimates Demographic Component Estimate (Persons) Per '000 Start (Jul 1, 2018) 1,352,154 Natural Increase (Net) 2,054 1.52 Births 4,750 3.51 Deaths 2,696 1.99 Total Net 2,628 1.94 Net Interprovincial -2,983-2.20 In 2,727 1 Out 5,710 4.22 Net International 3,255 2.40 Immigration 3,888 2.87 Emigration 633 0.47 Other International 2,356 1.74 Net Non-permanent Residents 1,928 1.42 Returning Emigrants 536 0.40 Net Temporary Emigrants 108 8 End (Oct 1, 2018) 1,356,836 Source: Statistics Canada, Tables 17-10-0009-01, 17-10-0020-01, 17-10-0040-01 and 17-10-0059-01 Growth, Canada and Provinces Change (%) Jul 1, 2018 to Oct 1, 2018 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.50 0.4 0.35 0.2-0.2 PE ON AB CA NS BC QC MB SK NB NL Change (%) Oct 1, 2017 to Oct 1, 2018 2.5 1.5 1.44 1.20 0.5-0.5 - PE ON AB CA BC MB QC NS SK NB NL Source: Statistics Canada, Table 17-10-0009-01 Statistics Canada's documentation: http://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p2sv.pl?function=getsurvey&sdds=3601
MBS Bulletin Q u a r t e r l y D e m o g r a p h i c E s t i m a t e s, O c t o b e r 2 0 1 8 2 Growth Quarterly growth Over the three months ending October 2018, Manitoba's population increased by an estimated 4,682 people. Our quarterly growth rate of 0.35% was weaker than Canada's 0.50%, and seventh among provinces. Twelve-month growth Manitoba's population increased by an estimated 16,060 people between October 2017 and October 2018. The province's twelve-month growth rate of 1.20% was weaker than Canada's 1.44%, and fifth among provinces. Estimate? Estimates are derived from Census counts, but are adjusted for net Census undercoverage, incompletely enumerated Indian reserves and demographic growth. Estimates - Manitoba and Canada Source: Statistics Canada, Table 17-10-0009-01 Manitoba Canada Estimate (Persons) Oct 1, 2017 1,340,776 36,712,658 Jul 1, 2018 1,352,154 37,058,856 Oct 1, 2018 1,356,836 37,242,571 Change (Persons) Oct 1, 2017 to Oct 1, 2018 16,060 529,913 Jul 1, 2018 to Oct 1, 2018 4,682 183,715 Change (%) Oct 1, 2017 to Oct 1, 2018 1.20 1.44 Jul 1, 2018 to Oct 1, 2018 0.35 0.50 Twelve-month Growth, Component Contributions Persons (000's) Oct 1 to Sep 30 Residual 4 3 2 1-1 Other International Net International Net Interprovincial Natural Increase -2 1999/00 2002/03 2005/06 2008/09 2011/12 2014/15 2017/18 Growth Other International? Other International migration groups together the temporary international migration flows and is comprised of the net change in Non-permanent Residents, plus Returning Emigrants, less Net Temporary Emigrants. Non-permanent Residents? The majority of Non-permanent Residents are students and temporary workers, while the remainder are refugee status claimants and non-canadian born dependents of refugee claimants or permit holders. Residual? Residual deviation is obtained by distributing the error of closure linearly throughout the intercensal period. The error of closure is defined as the difference between the final postcensal population estimates on Census Day and the most recent Census counts (adjusted for Census net undercoverage and incompletely enumerated indian reserves). A positive error of closure means that the postcensal population estimates have overestimated the population. A negative residual would then be required to correct the overestimation.
MBS Bulletin Q u a r t e r l y D e m o g r a p h i c E s t i m a t e s, O c t o b e r 2 0 1 8 3 Components of Growth Natural Increase During the third quarter of 2018, Manitoba recorded a gain of 2,054 people due to natural increase (births minus deaths). Over the twelve months ending September 30, 2018 our natural increase was 6,363 people, 1.31% higher than the twelve months prior. Total Net Combining all the migration components together, Manitoba had a total net inflow of 2,628 migrants during the third quarter of 2018. Our quarterly rate of 1.94 migrants per thousand population ranked eighth among provinces. Manitoba's twelve-month total net inflow was 9,697 migrants, 32.84% less than the previous twelve months. Net International During the third quarter of 2018, Manitoba gained 3,255 residents through net international migration (immigrants minus emigrants). Our quarterly inflow of 3,888 immigrants resulted in a rate of 2.87 immigrants per thousand population, above Canada's rate of 2.22. During the twelve months ending September 30, 2018, Manitoba welcomed 14,285 immigrants, 6.08% fewer than the twelve months prior. Other International Manitoba experienced a net gain of 2,356 other international migrants during the third quarter of 2018, resulting in a rate of Quarterly Total Net Rate 1 1.74 migrants per thousand population. Our net increase of 6,908 migrants between October 1, 2017 and September 30, 2018 was 8.65% higher than during the preceding twelve months. Net Interprovincial Manitoba had a net interprovincial outflow of 2,983 migrants during the third quarter of 2018. Our quarterly rate of -2.20 migrants per thousand population ranked ninth among provinces. The province's twelve-month net interprovincial outflow was 9,678 migrants, compared to the net outflow of 5,335 migrants for the previous twelve months. 8.0 6.0 4.0-1.94 PE ON NS BC AB QC NB MB SK NL Source: Statistics Canada, Tables 17-10-0009-01, 17-10-0020-01, 17-10-0023-01 and 17-10-0040-01 Quarterly Immigration Rate 5.0 4.0 2.87 3.0 2.22 PE SK MB AB ON CA BC QC NS NB NL Source: Statistics Canada, Tables 17-10-0009-01 and 17-10-0040-01 Quarterly Net Interprovincial Rate 0.5-0.5 - -1.5 - -2.5-2.20-3.0 AB NS ON QC BC PE NB NL MB SK Source: Statistics Canada, Tables 17-10-0009-01 and 17-10-0020-01
MBS Bulletin Q u a r t e r l y D e m o g r a p h i c E s t i m a t e s, O c t o b e r 2 0 1 8 4 Gains and Losses? Manitoba is considered to have a net gain when the number of people moving in from a given province or territory is greater than the number moving out, otherwise the net interchange is considered to be a loss. Example: Say 28 people moved from Manitoba to Ontario and, over the same time period, 10 people moved from Ontario to Manitoba. Our resulting net interchange with Ontario would be a loss of 18 people. Gains and Losses: Quarterly During the third quarter of 2018, Manitoba had net migration gains from one jurisdiction. The largest net interprovincial inflow was from New Brunswick, while the largest outflow was to Ontario. Compared to the same quarter twelve months ago, Manitoba's net interchange has improved with five jurisdictions. Twelve-month Over the twelve months ending September 30, 2018, Manitoba had net migration gains from no jurisdiction. The largest net interprovincial migration outflow was to Ontario. Compared to the previous twelve month period, Manitoba's net interchange has improved with one jurisdiction. Manitoba Net Interprovincial - Gains and Losses Q3-2018 Q3-2017 Change Q4-2017 to Q3-2018 Q4-2016 to Q3-2017 Change (1) (2) (1)-(2) (3) (4) (3)-(4) NL -5 47-52 -32 40-72 PE -13 0-13 -9-3 -6 NS -41-44 3-246 -96-150 NB 4-37 41-23 -22-1 QC -117-126 9-292 -139-153 ON -1,479-1,086-393 -4,013-2,017-1,996 SK -79 77-156 -322 193-515 AB -632-615 -17-2,297-1,116-1,181 BC -558-701 143-2,295-2,142-153 YT -12 0-12 -81-23 -58 NT -23-29 6-25 -37 12 NU -28 10-38 -43 27-70 TOTAL -2,983-2,504-479 -9,678-5,335-4,343 Persons Q3 (Jul 1 to Sep 30) 400 0-400 -800-1,200-1,600 0-500 -1,000-1,500-2,000-2,500 NL PE NS NB QC ON SK AB BC YT NT NU Q3-2018 Q3-2017 Change (persons) 2017/18 Minus 2016/17 (Oct 1 to Sep 30) 500 NT NB PE YT NU NL NS QC BC SK AB ON Source: Statistics Canada, Table 17-10-0045-01 Contact: Tara Newton Tara.Newton@gov.mb.ca MBS intranet website: http://intranet.mbgov.ca/finance/mbs/pages/default.aspx MBS public website: http://www.gov.mb.ca/mbs/
MBS Bulletin Q u a r t e r l y D e m o g r a p h i c E s t i m a t e s, O c t o b e r 2 0 1 8 5 Appendix Tables Comparability over time? Estimates of population and demographic components may not be fully comparable over time due to seasonal effects, changes in methodologies and completeness of source data. Manitoba and Demographic Estimates - 12-month (Persons) Oct 1 to Start Natural Net Net Other Component End Sep 30 Increase Interprovincial International International Total Net Growth Residual Growth 1998/99 1,138,328 4,454-2,305 1,868 1,066 629 5,083 207 5,290 1,143,618 1999/00 1,143,618 4,468-3,806 2,836 860-110 4,358 207 4,565 1,148,183 2000/01 1,148,183 4,165-4,665 2,966 918-781 3,384 583 3,967 1,152,150 2001/02 1,152,150 4,034-4,514 3,320 1,111-83 3,951 1,197 5,148 1,157,298 2002/03 1,157,298 4,035-2,353 4,151 1,203 3,001 7,036 1,196 8,232 1,165,530 2003/04 1,165,530 3,936-3,305 6,063 1,252 4,010 7,946 1,199 9,145 1,174,675 2004/05 1,174,675 4,098-7,757 6,368 506-883 3,215 1,196 4,411 1,179,086 2005/06 1,179,086 4,876-7,976 7,667 1,209 900 5,776-881 4,895 1,183,981 2006/07 1,183,981 5,033-4,031 9,163 1,840 6,972 12,005-4,296 7,709 1,191,690 2007/08 1,191,690 5,363-4,189 9,266 1,727 6,804 12,167-4,309 7,858 1,199,548 2008/09 1,199,548 5,789-2,108 11,703 1,240 10,835 16,624-4,297 12,327 1,211,875 2009/10 1,211,875 5,960-2,834 13,604 353 11,123 17,083-4,296 12,787 1,224,662 2010/11 1,224,662 5,330-3,736 14,031 621 10,916 16,246-2,889 13,357 1,238,019 2011/12 1,238,019 6,231-4,092 12,307 2,443 10,658 16,889-730 16,159 1,254,178 2012/13 1,254,178 6,258-5,362 11,393 2,689 8,720 14,978-728 14,250 1,268,428 2013/14 1,268,428 6,021-7,275 14,584 2,336 9,645 15,666-728 14,938 1,283,366 2014/15 1,283,366 5,736-6,187 12,791 2,351 8,955 14,691-728 13,963 1,297,329 2015/16 1,297,329 6,394-5,531 15,792 6,516 16,777 23,171-443 22,728 1,320,057 2016/17 1,320,057 6,281-5,335 13,415 6,358 14,438 20,719 0 20,719 1,340,776 2017/18 1,340,776 6,363-9,678 12,467 6,908 9,697 16,060 0 16,060 1,356,836 2018/19 1,356,836 Manitoba and Demographic Estimates - Quarterly (Persons) Start of Quarter Start Natural Increase Net Interprovincial Net International Other International Total Net Component Growth Residual Growth End Oct 1, 2013 1,268,428 1,446-1,412 3,138 146 1,872 3,318-184 3,134 1,271,562 Jan 1, 2014 1,271,562 1,048-1,646 3,324 298 1,976 3,024-179 2,845 1,274,407 Apr 1, 2014 1,274,407 1,559-2,083 4,554 759 3,230 4,789-182 4,607 1,279,014 Jul 1, 2014 1,279,014 1,968-2,134 3,568 1,133 2,567 4,535-183 4,352 1,283,366 Oct 1, 2014 1,283,366 1,282-1,021 3,043-33 1,989 3,271-184 3,087 1,286,453 Jan 1, 2015 1,286,453 895-1,738 2,622 41 925 1,820-179 1,641 1,288,094 Apr 1, 2015 1,288,094 1,647-1,785 3,661 792 2,668 4,315-182 4,133 1,292,227 Jul 1, 2015 1,292,227 1,912-1,643 3,465 1,551 3,373 5,285-183 5,102 1,297,329 Oct 1, 2015 1,297,329 1,551-693 3,321 1,220 3,848 5,399-184 5,215 1,302,544 Jan 1, 2016 1,302,544 1,293-888 3,921 1,000 4,033 5,326-181 5,145 1,307,689 Apr 1, 2016 1,307,689 1,567-1,657 4,933 1,685 4,961 6,528-78 6,450 1,314,139 Jul 1, 2016 1,314,139 1,983-2,293 3,617 2,611 3,935 5,918 0 5,918 1,320,057 Oct 1, 2016 1,320,057 1,310-588 2,577 1,099 3,088 4,398 0 4,398 1,324,455 Jan 1, 2017 1,324,455 1,342-886 3,537 534 3,185 4,527 0 4,527 1,328,982 Apr 1, 2017 1,328,982 1,607-1,357 4,165 1,999 4,807 6,414 0 6,414 1,335,396 Jul 1, 2017 1,335,396 2,022-2,504 3,136 2,726 3,358 5,380 0 5,380 1,340,776 Oct 1, 2017 1,340,776 1,333-1,708 2,068 1,916 2,276 3,609 0 3,609 1,344,385 Jan 1, 2018 1,344,385 1,360-2,244 3,012 338 1,106 2,466 0 2,466 1,346,851 Apr 1, 2018 1,346,851 1,616-2,743 4,132 2,298 3,687 5,303 0 5,303 1,352,154 Jul 1, 2018 1,352,154 2,054-2,983 3,255 2,356 2,628 4,682 0 4,682 1,356,836 Oct 1, 2018 1,356,836