Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios Hein de Haas heindehaas.org 17 January 2017 Speaker 1
Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration
17 January 2017 Hein de Haas 4
Source: Centre for Global Development
Source: Pew Research Center
Neither exodus, nor invasion So, what has changed?
1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 3,000,000 EU25 and US immigration, yearly, 1960-2010 2,500,000 2,000,000 EU25 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 US - Source: Hein de Haas, Simona Vezzoli and María Villares-Varela (2016 forthcoming) Trend and patterns of international migration 1950-2010. DEMIG working paper. Based on DEMIG C2C data.
Migratie als veiligheidsgevaar Migration as a threat to security (Map produced by Netherlands Ministry of Defence) Mondiale zekerheden en waarschijnlijkheden - Eindrapport 19 Verkenningen Houvast voor de krijgsmacht van de toekomst 2010, Netherlands Ministry of Defence
Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration 20
Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration 2. Immigration restrictions reduce migration 21
Substitution effects Unintended consequences of immigration restrictions 1.Category jumping Source: Hein de Haas (2011) The determinants of international migration: conceptualizing policy, origin and destination effects. DEMIG Working Paper #2
Substitution effects Unintended consequences of immigration restrictions 1.Category jumping 2. Now or never migration Source: Hein de Haas (2011) The determinants of international migration: conceptualizing policy, origin and destination effects. DEMIG Working Paper #2
How the Dutch government stimulated unwanted migration from Suriname Independence It s now or never!!! Immigration from Suriname Source: Simona Vezzoli (2014) The evolution of Surinamese emigration across and beyond independence: the role of origin and destination states. DEMIG Working Paper.
How the Dutch government stimulated unwanted migration from Suriname Independence It s now or never!!! Immigration from Suriname Source: Simona Vezzoli (2014) The evolution of Surinamese emigration across and beyond independence: the role of origin and destination states. DEMIG Working Paper.
How the Dutch government stimulated unwanted migration from Suriname Independence Visas introduced It s now or never!!! Immigration from Suriname Source: Simona Vezzoli (2014) The evolution of Surinamese emigration across and beyond independence: the role of origin and destination states. DEMIG Working Paper.
How the Dutch government stimulated unwanted migration from Suriname Independence Visas introduced It s now or never!!! Immigration from Suriname Returns Source: Simona Vezzoli (2014) The evolution of Surinamese emigration across and beyond independence: the role of origin and destination states. DEMIG Working Paper.
Substitution effects Unintended consequences of immigration restrictions 1.Category jumping 2. Now or never migration Source: Hein de Haas (2011) The determinants of international migration: conceptualizing policy, origin and destination effects. DEMIG Working Paper #2
Substitution effects Unintended consequences of immigration restrictions 1.Category jumping 2. Now or never migration 3.Interrupting circulation Source: Hein de Haas (2011) The determinants of international migration: conceptualizing policy, origin and destination effects. DEMIG Working Paper #2
Substitution effects Unintended consequences of immigration restrictions 1.Category jumping 2. Now or never migration 3.Interrupting circulation 4.Geographical diversion Source: Hein de Haas (2011) The determinants of international migration: conceptualizing policy, origin and destination effects. DEMIG Working Paper #2
Substitution effects Unintended consequences of immigration restrictions 1.Category jumping 2. Now or never migration 3.Interrupting circulation 4.Geographical diversion Source: Hein de Haas (2011) The determinants of international migration: conceptualizing policy, origin and destination effects. DEMIG Working Paper #2
Substitution effects Unintended consequences of immigration restrictions 1.Category jumping 2. Now or never migration 3.Interrupting circulation 4.Geographical diversion 5.Increased role of smuggling Source: Hein de Haas (2011) The determinants of international migration: conceptualizing policy, origin and destination effects. DEMIG Working Paper #2
25 years of Fortress Europe A lethal vicious circle.
Substitution effects Unintended consequences of immigration restrictions 1.Category jumping 2. Now or never migration 3.Interrupting circulation 4.Geographical diversion 5.Increased role of smuggling Source: Hein de Haas (2011) The determinants of international migration: conceptualizing policy, origin and destination effects. DEMIG Working Paper #2
Moroccan emigration to OECD countries 160000 140000 Recruitment stop Visa regimes S-Europe Global economic crisis 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 DEMIG C2C database - www.imi.ox.ac.uk Estimation de l' émigration basée sur les chiffres d'ímmigration des pays de destination: FR, BE, NL, IT, ES, DE, DK, NO, FI, AT, CH, US, CA, AU Ligne rouge = moyenne glissante sur 4 ans
The migration policy paradox
The migration policy paradox 60 Percentage of population abroad 50 40 30 Guyana Suriname 20 10 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Source: Vezzoli 2015
The migration policy paradox 60 Percentage of population abroad 50 40 30 20 French Guiana Guyana Suriname 10 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Source: Vezzoli 2015
1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 3,000,000 EU25 migration trends The migration policy paradox 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 - Immigration
1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 3,000,000 EU25 migration trends The migration policy paradox 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 - Immigration Emigration
1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 3,000,000 EU25 migration trends The migration policy paradox 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 - Immigration Emigration Within EU25
Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration 2. Immigration restrictions reduce migration 45
Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration 2. Immigration restrictions reduce migration 3. Development will reduce migration 46
Migration as the anti-thesis of development?
Percentage of population The developmental drivers of migration 16 14 12 10 8 6 Immigrants 4 2 0 Very low Low Middle High Very high Human development index (HDI) Source: de Haas, Hein 2010. Migration transitions: a theoretical and empirical inquiry into the developmental drivers of international migration. IMI/DEMIG Working Paper, University of Oxford 49
Percentage of population The developmental drivers of migration 16 14 12 10 8 6 Emigrants Immigrants 4 2 0 Very low Low Middle High Very high Human development index (HDI) Source: de Haas, Hein 2010. Migration transitions: a theoretical and empirical inquiry into the developmental drivers of international migration. IMI/DEMIG Working Paper, University of Oxford 50
Destination country drivers of migration 51
Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration 2. Immigration restrictions reduce migration 3. Development will reduce migration 52
Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration 2. Immigration restrictions reduce migration 3. Development will reduce migration 4. Migration can solve the ageing problem 53
World - Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in 1970 00+ -99-94 -89-84 -79-74 -69-64 -59-54 -49-44 -39-34 -29-24 -19-14 5-9 0-4 No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary 350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350 Males Population in Millions Females
World - Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in 2010 - Global Education Trend - Scenario 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary 350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350 Males Population in Millions Females
World - Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in 2050 - Global Education Trend - Scenario 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary 350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350 Males Population in Millions Females Source: Wolfgang Lutz, World Population Program, IIASA 2009
China - Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in 1970 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary 70000 56000 42000 28000 14000 0 14000 28000 42000 56000 70000 Males Population in Thousands Females World Population Proogram IIASA 2009 Source: Wolfgang Lutz, World Population Program, IIASA 2009
China - Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in 2010 - Global Education Trend - Scenario 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary 70000 56000 42000 28000 14000 0 14000 28000 42000 56000 70000 Males Population in Thousands Females World Population Proogram IIASA 2009 Source: Wolfgang Lutz, World Population Program, IIASA 2009
China - Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in 2050 - Global Education Trend - Scenario 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary 70000 56000 42000 28000 14000 0 14000 28000 42000 56000 70000 Males Population in Thousands Females World Population Proogram IIASA 2009 Source: Wolfgang Lutz, World Population Program, IIASA 2009
Migration Facts 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration 60
Migration Facts 1. Current global migration is not exceptionally high ( neither exodus nor invasion ), and main changes have been directional 61
Migration Facts 1. Current global migration is not exceptionally high 2. Immigration restrictions reduce migration 62
Migration Facts 1. Current global migration is not exceptionally high 2. Restrictions interrupt circulation, discourage return, push migrants into permanent settlement and encourage smuggling 63
Migration Facts 1. Current global migration is not exceptionally high 2. Restrictions interrupt circulation and create illegality 3. Development will reduce migration 64
Migration Facts 1. Current global migration is not exceptionally high 2. Restrictions interrupt circulation and create illegality 3. Development drives migration by increasing capabilities and aspirations to migrate 65
Migration Facts 1. Current global migration is not exceptionally high 2. Restrictions interrupt circulation and create illegality 3. Development drives migration 4. Migration can solve the ageing problem 66
Migration Facts 1. Current global migration is not exceptionally high 2. Restrictions interrupt circulation and create illegality 3. Development drives migration 4. Migration cannot solve ageing and other structural socioeconomic problems 67
Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios Hein de Haas heindehaas.org 17 January 2017 Speaker 68