Social and environmental progress: Europe in a long-run perspective

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WWWFOREUROPE Conference Brussels, 24 February 2015 Social and environmental progress: Europe in a long-run perspective Peter Dröll Acting Director, DG RTD, European Commission 1

Why a large EU research investment on Europe moving towards a new path of economic growth and social development? Source: EC, DG RTD, FP7-SSH-2011 2

The origin of WWWforEurope A European foresight expert group "The World in 2025 Rising Asia and socio-ecological transition" Source: EC, DG RTD, The World in 2025 3

European demographic changes by 2050 The "oldest old" (85 and over) will almost triple The EU working population will be less than 35% EU health expenditure: from 8% of GDP today to ~12% Per year, ~1.5 million of third countries people are entering the EU Source: DG ECFIN, Ageing Report, DG RTD, Global Europe 2050 (H. Bogaert), UN 4

World and EU GDP (2010 and 2050) Source: EC, DG RTD, Global Europe 2050 (L. Fontagné) 5

Share of world electronic production Source: EC, DG RTD, Global Europe 2050 (L. Fontagné) 6

Gonzalez Report Europe 2030 Source: http://www.flagslist.com/maps/asia/asia-map.gif Europe is at a crossroads: either we keep and strengthen the role as one of the main global actors, or we become an increasingly irrelevant outgrowth on the Asian 7 continent

Increasing tensions on resources Water (more than 3 billion people missing water by 2050) Food (70% increase by 2050) Land (war on lands) Materials (lithium, gallium, scandium, ) Energy (EU imports more than 55% of its energy needs) Source: European Commission, DG RTD, The World in 2025 and Global Europe 2050 8

Overweight rates Source: OECD 9 While 100 kg/c/y of food wasted

Are the EU welfare states (Anglo-Saxon, Rhenan, Scandinavian, Mediterranean) - combining family, market and state adapted to the future? Is a new European model of development - towards a socio-ecological transition - feasible? Source: European Commission, DG RTD 10

Welfare, Wealth and Work for Europe Forward-looking dimension Quantitative and qualitative methods Ambitious but realistic in 21 st century Resource-efficiency and innovation-oriented Towards a new European model (social, competitive and long-run perspective) Source: European Commission, DG RTD 11

ANNEX Present and future European socio-economic research projects 12

FP7 Current EU research projects (SSH) Analysis of the impacts of global changes GLOBAL-IQ coordinated by TSE ( 2.7 M) Creating and adapting jobs in Europe in the context of a socio-ecological transition NEUJOBS coordinated by CEPS ( 8 M) Beyond GDP - Measuring economic performance and social progress E-FRAME coordinated by ISTAT ( 1.5 M) Europe moving towards a new path of economic growth and social development WWWforEurope coordinated by WIFO ( 8 M) 13

Horizon 2020 EU research projects launched in 2015 (SC6) The European growth agenda ( 10 M) Reform management for economic recovery Innovation-based growth strategy for Europe Global production and innovation networks- costs and benefits for EU Migration, prosperity and growth ISIGROWTH: Innovation-fuelled, sustainable, inclusive growth (Scuola Normale Superiore Sant'Anna IT) IIT: Industrial innovation in transition (Aalto FI) FIRES: Financial and institutional reforms for the entrepreneurial society (Utrecht University NL) QUINNE: Quality of jobs and innovation generated employment outcomes (Lunds Universiteit SE) GEMM: Growth, equal opportunities, migration and markets (University of Essex UK)

Horizon 2020 EU research projects launched in 2015 (SC6) European societies after the crisis ( 8.5 M) Individual reactions to the crisis and challenges to European solidarity Unity in diversity: prospects of a European identity and public sphere Innovative social investment approaches for the modernisation of social policies and services SPRINT: Social protection innovative investment in long term care (University of Warwick) TRANSSOL: European paths to transnational solidarity at times of crisis: Conditions, forms, role-models & policy responses (Univ. of Siegen) REINVEST: Rebuilding an inclusive, value-based Europe of solidarity and trust through social investments (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven) INNOSI: Innovative social investment: Strengthening communities in Europe (Manchester Metropolitan University) 15

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