What does the Tourism Demand Surveys tell about long distance travel? Linda Christensen Otto Anker Nielsen

What does the Tourism Demand Surveys tell about long distance travel? Linda Christensen Otto Anker Nielsen

Overview of the presentation 1. The Tourism Demand Survey 2. Data 3. Share of respondents travelling 4. Development in journeys, income elasticities 5. Saturation level? 2 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark

Tourism Demand Survey I Danmark kaldes undersøgelsen Ferie- og Forretningsundersøgelsen. Den gennemføres løbende af Danmarks Statistik All EU members have to deliver an annual set of indicator tables with detailed specified content. The first tables were delivered to Eurostat in 1995. From 1997 most of the old member states were included Since 2002, 03 or 04 most of the new member states were included. A few participates from 2008. Norway has been included for some years, Switzerland from 2008. Sweden has only participated on and off 3 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark

Available data Data are available at Eurostat s homepage but only as macro tables. We have included tables from 1997 and on Available tables from 1997 are, distributed on domestic and international number of private journeys with 4+ nights number of private journeys with 1-3 night(s) number of nights at private journeys with 4+ nights number of nights at private journeys with 1-3 night(s) Share of respondents who have been travelling during the year distributed at International journeys with 4+ nights International journeys with 1-3 nights only Domestic journeys only with 4+ nights Domestic journeys only with 1-3 nights only Distribution of number of journeys and of number of nights on Modes Destination country Travel costs 4 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark

Percentage of respondents travelling Outbound 4+ nights Outbound Domestic only Journeys per Country ISO 4+ nights 1-3 nights 1-3 nights All Inhabitant 4+ nights only only journeys traveller Mediterranean country Greece EL 4 1 25 6 36 0.05 1.17 Portugal PT 7 2 18 11 38 0.08 1.19 Italy IT 8 4 25 6 43 0.15 1.81 Spain ES 9 2 29 13 53 0.15 1.61 France FR 21 3 42 6 72 0.33 1.59 Middle and Northern Eu ropean countr United Kingdom UK 36 4 21 4 66 0.73 2.01 Finland FI 38 19 29 3 89 0.79 2.08 Sweden SE 40 10 24 2 77 0.80 1.99 Ireland IE 44 8 9 11 72 1.05 2.37 Belgium BE 46 5 3 2 56 0.70 1.54 Germany DE 48 5 16 8 77 0.83 1.73 Austria AT 50 7 9 10 76 0.83 1.66 Netherlands NL 55 4 17 6 83 0.93 1.69 Denmark DK 55 5 19 3 81 1.00 1.83 Norway NO 64 7 12 1 85 1.02 1.62 Switzerland CH 65 8 9 2 83 1.12 1.73 Luxembourg LU 71 10 0 0 82 1.95 2.73 5 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark

Percentage of respondents travelling Outbound 4+ nights Outbound Domestic only Journeys per Country ISO 4+ nights 1-3 nights only 4+ nights 1-3 nights only All journeys Inhabitant traveller New member states Romania RO 1 0 9 13 24 0.05 3.89 Bulgaria BG 2 1 12 7 22 0.05 2.57 Croatia HR 12 9 21 7 49 0.32 2.75 Poland PL 12 3 23 13 51 0.20 1.67 Hungary HU 15 3 19 14 52 0.25 1.66 Latvia LV 19 7 6 17 49 0.38 1.97 Lithuania LT 21 9 5 21 55 0.38 1.82 Slovakia SK 27 3 14 11 55 0.41 1.51 Estonia EE 29 13 10 12 65 0.45 1.53 Malta MT 30 4 7 11 51 0.58 1.97 Cyprus CY 31 7 8 17 63 1.10 3.55 Czech Republic CZ 34 6 26 12 77 0.47 1.39 Slovenia SI 43 6 8 5 63 0.67 1.55 United Kingdom UK 36 4 21 4 66 0.73 2.01 Finland FI 38 19 29 3 89 0.79 2.08 Sweden SE 40 10 24 2 77 0.80 1.99 Ireland IE 44 8 9 11 72 1.05 2.37 Belgium BE 46 5 3 2 56 0.70 1.54 Germany DE 48 5 16 8 77 0.83 1.73 Austria AT 50 7 9 10 76 0.83 1.66 Netherlands NL 55 4 17 6 83 0.93 1.69 Denmark DK 55 5 19 3 81 1.00 1.83 Norway NO 64 7 12 1 85 1.02 1.62 Switzerland CH 65 8 9 2 83 1.12 1.73 Luxembourg LU 71 10 0 0 82 1.95 2.73 6 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark

Number of journeys per inhabitant in a log-log illustration The gradients are the elasticities. 4 country groups are shown by the colour of the curve 7 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark

New member states, excl. Mediterranean Estimated short run All countries Middle and Northern Europe Cyprus and Malta countries elasticities 2000-2015 2000-2007 2008-2015 2004-2015 2008-2015 2001-2015 HHConsumption 0.602*** 0.89** 1,03** 0.72** 0.66* 1.148** Trip number per cap -1 0.660*** 0.251* 0.358** 0.644*** 0.538*** 0.587*** Age 15-24 share -1.91*** 0.82** Age 65-74 share 0.31* Edu Lev 0-2 share 0.20* Edu 3 Share of 35-44 0.34** -0.68*** Edu 3 Share of 55-64 0.79*** Employment 25-64 UnEmployment 20-64 Part Time job share 0.68*** Emigration Share Immigration Share 0.05*** Flights Pr 1000 Sq km 0.35*** Long run income elasticity 1,77 1,19 1,60 2,02 1,43 2,78 Number of crossings 30 11 12 11 11 5 Time series length 16 8 8 12 8 13 R 2 0.986 0.974 0.968 0.971 0.976 0.950 F Value 4.51 5.21 4.66 2.34 2.41 5.16 Significance level <.0001 <.0001 <.0001 0.0154 0.0153 0.0013 8 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark

New member states, excl. Mediterranean Estimated parameters for All countries Middle and Northern Europe Cyprus and Malta countries number of journeys 2000-2015 2008-2015 2000-2007 2008-2015 2003-2015 2008-2015 2000-2015 Income 0.000012*** 0.000063*** 0.000062*** 0.000029*** Age less than 15 Share 0.041*** 0.074*** 0.092*** 0.059*** Age 15-24 share 0.032** 0.068** Age 65-74 share 0.044** -0.029** -0.034** Education level 0-2 share -0.0033** - 0.010*** -.021*** 0.0082** 0.0019*** Educat lev 3 Share of 35-44 -0.0064** - 0.024***.023*** 0.0028** Educat lev 3 Share of 55-64 0.0079** 0.035*** 0.013** 0.0040* Employment Rate 25-64 0.0086*** - 0.020*** 0.027*** 0.015*** UnEmployment Rate 20-64 0.017*** Part Time job share 0.0099*** 0.0064*** Share of income in Q4-0.035*** Emigration Share 0.13*** 0.16* 0.069*** Immigration Share 0.17*** 0.16*** 0.18*** 0.060* Foreigners Share 0.011*** 0.025*** 0.025*** 0.031*** 0.0019* -0.0076** Flights Pr Sq km -0.0062** 0.084*** 0.11*** 0.079*** Area in 1000 sq km -0.00027*** 0.00047** -0.00080*** -.00079*** Density 0.00048*** 0.00054** -0.00099*** 0.0021*** 0.00072*** Average High Temperature -0.024** 0.028* -.076*** -0.0052* 0.029*** Observations 464 192 96 96 143 88 80 Used observations 306 128 76 86 124 83 62 R2 0.910 0.924 0.925 0.936 0.921 0.955 0.964 F Value 226.25 106.74 120.57 108.93 119.00 267.07 204.13 Significance level <.0001 <.0001 <.0001 <.0001 <.0001 <.0001 <.0001 Mean number of journeys 0.588 0.949 0.865 0.969 0.333 0.325 0.155 9 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark

Conclusions The income elasticities in number of journeys per respondent is not offering a correct picture of the development in travel activity It is needed to include the share of people who are travelling abroad. It is mainly this share which is increasing Countries with many immigrant-workers have a higher number of journeys per travellers. This will increase a saturation level for such countries The number of journeys per traveller is high for countries with many emigrant-workers. When they get richer this will decrease (see Slovakia and Czech Republic) The share of the respondents who travel abroad per year will also have a natural maximum level lower than 100% Could a saturation level be 80% travelling with 2.5 journeys per traveller resulting in 2 journeys abroad with 4+ nights per inhabitant at 15+ years? To this has to be added trips with 1-3 nights and business travel This level is very far away for the Mediterranean countries And for the Central and Eastern European countries due to the income level 10 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark

Thank you for listening Any questions? 11 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark