PARTY STRATEGIES IN BRITAIN

PARTY STRATEGIES IN BRITAIN

Also by David Butler THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF 1951 THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF 1955 THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF 1959 (with Richard Rose) THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF 1964 (with Anthony King) THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF 1966 (with Anthony King) THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF 1970 (with Michael Pinto-Duschinsky) THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF FEBRUARY 1974 (with Dennis Kavanagh) THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF OCTOBER 1974 (with Dennis Kavanagh) THE 1975 REFERENDUM (with Uwe Kitzinger) THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF 1979 (with Dennis Kavanagh) THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF 1983 (with Dennis Kavanagh) BRITISH POLITICAL FACTS, 1900--1979 (with Anne Sloman) POLITICAL CHANGE IN BRITAIN (with Donald Stokes)

PARTY STRATEGIES IN BRITAIN A Study qf the 1984 European Elections David Butler Fellow qf Nuifield College, Oxford and Paul Jowett Research Officer, Centre for Business Strategy London Business School andformerly student qf Nuffield College, Oxford M MACMILLAN

David Butler 1985 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1985 978-0-333-38459-6 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright Act 1956 (as amended). Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. First published 1985 Published by THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 2XS and London Companies and representatives throughout the world British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Butler, David, 1924- Party strategies in Britain: a study of the 1984 European elections. I. European Parliament-Elections, 1979 2. Elections-Great Britain-History- 20th century I. Title II. Jowett, Paul 324.941 '0858 JN36 ISBN 978-0-333-38460-2 ISBN 978-1-349-17816-2 (ebook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-17816-2

Contents List of Illustrations vi List of Tables vn List of Figures and Maps vm Europe vm 1 Introduction 1 2 Britain and Europe 7 3 The Background to 1984 14 4 The Elected Parliament 23 5 The Rules 36 6 The Conservative Party 47 7 The Labour Party 57 8 The Alliance and Others 71 9 The Local Campaign 83 10 The National Campaign 93 11 Retrospect and Prospect 127 Appendix: An Analysis of the Results by John Curtice 140 Index 164

List of Illustrations European Parliament advertisement Conservative advertisement, May 14 Election addresses: Conservative Labour SDP/Liberal D-Day plus 40 Conservative final advertisement 'And as they come up to the finish 0 0 o' 46 52 88 88 88 100 113 130 VI

List of Tables I. I 2.1 4.1 5.1 5.2 7.I 9.1 9.2 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.7 ll.l A. I A.2 A.3 A.4 A.5 A.6 A.7 Chronology Changing pattern of British trade, 1972-82 Salaries and allowances paid to MEPs and MPs Party impact of redistribution European information campaign money Labour candidates Candidates' expenditure (GB) Contact with election information Subjects of lead stories during the Election, May 21 tojune 14 Analysis of European election articles in quality press, May 21-June 14, 1984 Analysis of coverage of the European elections in popular press Polls on party support, May-June, 1984 UK European election results, 1984 ( 1979) European election results, 1984- Britain Northern Ireland votes European Parliament, 1984 Measures of change Urban/rural variation in party performance Alliance performance and swing Alliance prospects Exaggerative quality of the electoral system Movements from 1984 Result under regional PR 3 II 33 39 44 66 90 92 106 108 109 114 117 120 124 128 141 144 145 156 157 157 159 Vll

List of Figures 3.1 Party poll standings, 197~84 A.1 Swings to Labour, 1983-4 15 143 List of Maps 10. 1 Labour victories 10.2 Alliance 2nd places 10. 3 Voting percentages 118 118 119 Vlll

Preface The preparation of a work such as this involves many people in addition to the authors. As a Fellow or as a Student we both owe much to Nuffield College for support in many ways, both personal and institutional. We have to thank the Economic and Social Research Council for allowing us to spend what was left from a grant to study the 1983 election on this different but related venture. The European Parliament financed our expeditions to Strasbourg. We could not have written what follows without an enormous amount of help from MEPs, from candidates, from party headquarters and from Community officials. They gave us their time. They answered questionnaires and letters and phone calls. In the run-up to the election we interviewed nine-tenths of the MEPs; and 60% of those who fought the election answered, unpressed, a questionnaire on what they had done and what they thought about the campaign. A number of those at the heart of the campaign read and criticised draft chapters. We are deeply grateful to all these helpers who are, necessarily, nameless. But we must acknowledge explicitly our especial debt to Dennis Kavanagh, Vernon Bogdanor, Christopher Collins, Brian Donovan, Nicol Rae and Anthony Teasdale for their criticism. Margaret Rothwell gave immaculate research help and Audrey Skeats mothered the whole enterprise secretarially. But we alone are responsible for whatever is wrong with the book. Nuffield College 3 September 1984 DAVID BUTLER PAUL JOWETT IX