The Situation in Syria Topic Background Over 465,000 people have been killed in the civil war that is ongoing in Syria. Over one million others have been injured, and more than 12 million individuals - half the country s pre-war 1 population - have been displaced. The Syrian Civil War has now gone on longer than World 2 War II, with no end in sight. The international community is undeniably entrenched in the situation already, and a solution to this problem must involve players from all around the world. In 2011, Arab Spring protesters toppled autocratic presidents in Tunisia and Egypt. In Syria, where President Bashar al-assad presided over a country that had been in a state of emergency since 1963 and where political expression was stifled, many citizens began to engage in 3 pro-democracy activism. When 15 boys were detained and tortured for spreading pro-arab Spring graffiti, peaceful protests began, and hundreds of demonstrators were killed or imprisoned in response. The grievances of protesters were both new and very old. One long-standing issue that many spoke out against, for example, was religious sectionalism in Syria. Though the vast majority of the population was Sunni Muslim, the security forces in Syria had long been 4 dominated by Alawite Shi a Muslims. In July of 2011, defectors from the Syrian military and some protesters joined together to declare the Free Syrian Army ( FSA ), announcing their intention to overthrow the government. The FSA s formation marked the beginning of the civil war, but they are far from the only group 1 2 Ibid. 3 https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/05/1008832 4
involved. As the fighting has progressed, the FSA has enjoyed support from the U.S., Turkey, and several Arab Gulf countries. The FSA controls areas of northwestern Syria, and made 5 headlines in December of 2016 when it recaptured the strategic city of Aleppo. Another significant group is the Syrian Kurdish population, which has gained more ground in northeastern Syria. The Kurds are a stateless nation traditionally settled in modern-day Syria, Turkey, Iraq, and Iran, and many Kurdish groups seek self-rule. The YPG, or People s Protection Units, are armed majority-kurdish groups aimed at protecting Kurdish populations and combatting Assad. In October 2015, the YPG helped form the Syrian Democratic Forces ( SDF ), a multi-ethnic and multi-religious alliance aimed at a secular, democratic, federal Syria. In opposition to this are various jihadist groups in Syria, most prominently the Islamic State of 6 Iraq and Syria. This group, or ISIS, is a jihadist terrorist organization attempting to establish a caliphate - or Islamic kingdom - in Iraq and Syria. ISIS gained ground in Iraq and expanded into Syria once the civil war progressed. While ISIS s material control of land is now minimal, the presence of the group in terror attacks is still felt in Syria. Another prominent jihadist group is the Al-Nusra front, which has since rebranded as Jabhat Fateh al-sham in solidarity with other 7 jihadist groups. The situation on the ground is complicated by a web of outside actors. Regionally, Shia majority Iran and the Lebanon-based group Hezbollah have supported Assad, while Sunni nations including Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have largely supported anti-assad rebels. Turkey has been hesitant, however, to support Kurdish independence out of fear of its own Kurdish populations attempting separatist movements. Internationally, the United States has been arming 8 9 anti-assad rebels since 2014, and Russia has long-supported Assad as a strong regional ally. Israel has carried out air raids inside Syria, reportedly targeting Hezbollah and pro-assad fighters. Syria shot down an Israeli plane inside its borders in February 2018, confirming Israel s 10 actions. The issue of chemical weapons has been central to this situation. In 2013, a sarin nerve agent 11 was used as an attack near Damascus and killed 1,400 people. The United States threatened action, and under pressure from the UN, Assad agreed to the complete removal of his chemical 5 Ibid. 6 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/25/world/middleeast/turkey-kurds-syria.html 7 https://www.counterextremism.com/threat/nusra-front-jabhat-fateh-al-sham 8 9 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/04/12/syria-explained/?utm_term =.25669599bc58 10 11 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/04/12/syria-explained/?utm_term =.25669599bc58
weapons arsenal. Subsequent chemical attacks have drawn outrage from the international 12 community. In April 2017, the U.S. initiated its first direct military action in Syria to target an airbase that it believed a chemical attack had originated from, and in April of 2018 the U.S. launched another attack with the aid of France and the U.K. against a suspected chemical 13 weapons site. The results of the Syrian Civil War are widespread. The U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees ( UNHCR ) has registered over 5.5 million refugees forced to leave Syria, most now hosted in Lebanon, Turkey, and Jordan. The UNHCR estimates that over 6.5 million people are internally displaced in Syria. Within the country, approximately 70% of the population does not have access to adequate drinking water, four out of five people live in poverty, and more than 2 million children are out of school. The U.N. has said that it would need approximately $3.2 billion to help the 13.5 million people it has registered as crucially affected by the crisis in Syria, but even with funds, there are enormous difficulties in gaining access to the population in need of help. Syria has turned into a modern nightmare - without aid, millions more lives could be threatened. Past International Action In 2011 and 2012, the Arab League attempted to convince the Syrian government and opposition to start peace talks and sent a monitoring mission to Syria in December 2011. The next month, the mission was withdrawn. The first round of UN-facilitated peace talks took place in Geneva in 14 June 2012. It ended with the issuance of a communique agreeing that a transitional government was needed, which should include members of Assad s government as well as members of the opposition. In February 2014, the Geneva II follow-up conference broke down after two rounds. The UN Special Envoy on Syria blamed the Syrian government s unwillingness to 15 discuss opposition demands as the cause of the convention s failure. In January of 2016, the Geneva III conference failed before it began when the government and opposition forces refused to sit in the same room together. A series of ceasefires between the government and opposition forces have been agreed to, and broken, throughout the years. International organizations have played an important role in addressing the chemical weapons in Syria. In 2013, the pressure from the UN Security Council was key in convincing Assad to destroy his chemical weapons. In addition, the Security Council ordered Assad to sign onto the Chemical Weapons Convention ( CWC ) banning the use of such weapons. Assad sent a letter to the United Nations Secretary-General providing Syria s accession to the CWC and provided 12 https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/02/1003722 13 https://www.opcw.org/special-sections/syria/the-fact-finding-mission/ 14 15 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-26116868
the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons ( OPCW ) with an inventory of its 16 chemical weapons arsenal. The destruction of the arsenal began in October 2013. The OPCW 17 has since monitored toxic chemicals in the area, and reported its findings to the U.N. A U.N. Commission of Inquiry for Syria has found all parties to be guilty of war crimes in the crisis. But one of the most-pressed organizations is the UNHCR. In 2017, the UNHCR provided protection services, legal counseling, documentation support, child protection services, and more through 92 community centers, 10 satellite centers, 58 mobile units, and over 2,000 outreach 18 volunteers. Still, millions remain affected by the crisis, and refugee camps in neighboring countries are overloaded. Possible Solutions Peace will not be easy in this situation, but there is a role for member states and international organizations. Major states involved in the crisis can leverage their funding and support to bring their associated parties into peace talks. While outside nations, and even the UN, are not necessarily fit to design a new government and decide who will be in it, the international community can and should be instrumental in providing a framework for legitimate discussions between the constituent groups of the Syrian civil war. With so many states involved in the crisis, nationally-led anti-terror or humanitarian campaigns are difficult to depoliticize. Leadership from the UN, or other international bodies, may be more successful in attracting involvement and funding for neutral envoys to address issues such as terrorist attacks, medical responses to biological and chemical weapons attacks, clean water provisions, and more. One issue that is impossible to ignore is the persistence of weapons of mass destruction in Syria. Targeting and eliminating these weapons could originate in their voluntary surrender, targeted extraction campaigns, investigation teams, or other paths. Setting clear, enforced guidelines on how to punish parties responsible for the use of chemical or biological weapons could alter the fight in Syria but only if there is legitimate and proven international support for such standards. Refugees also need options to escape the violence. This could come from expanded resettlement programs across the globe, expanded temporary regional housing, protected ceasefire zones with the capacity to house refugees, or a plethora of other solutions. Access to water and food is crucial not just for those who flee Syria, but for internally displaced persons within its borders who are similarly far from their homes and support systems. 16 https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/cwcsig 17 https://www.opcw.org/special-sections/syria/the-fact-finding-mission/ 18 https://www.unrefugees.org/emergencies/syria/
Further Research UNHCR on Syrian Refugees OPCW on the Chemical Weapons Convention Guided Questions 1. Should all groups be represented in potential peace talks, or should some, such as known terrorist groups, be banned? 2. What is the place for the international legal community to prosecute wrongdoing on both sides? Should this be included in any eventual peace deal? 3. How can outside nations detangle themselves from their support for Syrian factions? 4. Has Syria turned into a proxy war?