Areas for economic and financial cooperation in Sino-European relations Central Bank Roundtable Shanghai Forum, May 27, 2017 Peter Mooslechner Executive Director Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Vienna, Austria
As a starting point: China and Europe - Many centuries of common Silk Road history From a global geographical as well as from a historical perspective - 2 -
Where we come from to where we have developed Donald Trump: Our politicians have aggressively pursued a policy of globalization, moving our jobs, our wealth and our factories to Mexico and overseas. (June 28, 2016 ) We must protect our borders from the ravages of other countries making our products, stealing our companies and destroying our jobs. (January 20, 2017) - 3 -
A broader geographical (and political) perspective on the New Silk Road initiative and Pan-European Corridors Trans-European Networks New Silk Road Pan-European Corridors - 4 -
China s growing contribution to the global economy World GDP CurrentUS$, in billions 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 Forecast China: KOF Index of globalization and components Index points 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Economic globalization Social globalization Political globalization KOF Index of globalization Source: KOF, ETH Zurich. 20000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 EU USA Other advanced Economies China Other emerging and developing economies Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2017). KOF: Index of globalization Index points 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Austria China Germany France United Kingdom Japan Singapore United States - 5 - Source: KOF.
Already strong economic ties between China and Europe to build on China: Outward FDI stocks in 2012 EU: Outward FDI stocks to extra-eu in 2012 Percent of total Hong Kong, China Percent of total United States European Union Switzerland 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 3% 25% 6% Source: UNCTAD. 58% United States Australia Singapore Kazakhstan Canada Russian Federation Other countries 2% 2% 3% 34% 4% Source: Eurostat. 5% 5% 32% 13% Brazil Canada Russia Australia Hong Kong China (except Hong Kong) Other extra-eu - 6 -
Many interesting technological and financial prerequisites for China EU cooperation exist Stocks traded, total value and shares in GDP, 2014 Trillion current USD % of GDP 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0.0 United States China European Union 250 200 150 100 50 0 Stocks traded, total value (current US$) Stocks traded, total value (% of GDP) - right axis Source: World Bank. Total reserves, 2015 Trillion current USD 4,0 3,50 3,0 2,50 2,0 1,50 1,0,50,0 China European Union United States OECD (2017): Making the most of innovation in China - 7 - Total reserves (includes gold, current US$) Total reserves minus gold (current US$) Source: World Bank.
Avoid a (to) narrow focus on economics! Successful cooperation needs to be based on a much broader and long-term oriented approach - 8 -
Within a broad-based approach, there are many areas for successful enhanced cooperation Climate change and energy: EU and China remain the two single most important signatories of the Paris climate agreement Trade policy and transportation infrastructure: trade agreement significant potential for enhanced cooperation and win-win situations Investment protection agreements: Useful tool to avoid asymmetric access to domestic markets Financial markets: China s role in the global financial system is increasing and will continue to grow Education, science and research, innovation Cultural dialogue and increased cooperation on cultural issues - 9 -
Clear signal: OeNB s early decision to invest in China Practical experiences: The Oesterreichische Nationalbank (the Central Bank of Austria, OeNB) was the first EU-central bank that signed an FX-trading agreement with the People s Bank of China in 2007 already The Austrian agreement was understood as clear signal for increased cooperation and many other EU-central banks followed this example Types of trades/investments: FX-transactions & fixed income transactions/investments Main positive aspect: Mutual efforts to create trust and a basis for cooperation in other areas - 10 -
Instead of conclusions: 5 important messages Emerging de-globalization tendencies underline the importance of other forms of international cooperation The New Silk Road Initiative offers a mutual opportunity to work on this regarding the China EU relationship Economic ties between China and EU are already well established and are deepening to the benefit of both sides Most importantly, successful cooperation should be designed much broader than with a narrow focus on economics only There are many areas beyond narrow economics from energy to research and culture where a long-term win-win cooperation along the Silk Road blueprint makes sense - 11 -
Areas for economic and financial cooperation in Sino-European relations Central Bank Roundtable Shanghai Forum, May 27, 2017 Peter Mooslechner Executive Director Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Vienna, Austria