The 2010 Brazilian Presidential Elections: Issues, Voter Demands, and Strategies Wilson Center, Brazil Institute April 7th, Washington DC
Talking Points The Players 16 Year Backdrop Proximate Context Campaign Themes: Change vs. Continuity Polling Numbers Match-ups Looking forward to a Post-2010 Agenda [ 2 ]
The Players
The Players Serra Dilma Ciro Gomes Marina Obligatory Vote Free Television and Radio Time Run off Election if less than 50 + 1 in first round Serra ran against Lula in 2002 PSDB v. PT [ 4 ]
16 Year Backdrop 1994 to 2010
Meta-Values Defining Presidential Eras Stability Social Mobility and Jobs????? FHC Years 1994 to 2002 Lula Years 2002 to 2010 Post 2010 Good Managers and Risk Aversion Common Touch, Empathy [ 6 ]
FHC versus Lula Years Positive Points of FHC s Administration 2002 Most Cited Programs of Lula s Administration 2010 Ipsos 2002 and 2010 [ 7 ]
70 Lula Job s and Social Agenda 60 50 Inflation number 1 issue in 1993 40 30 20 10 0 [ 8 ] Abr-05 Jun-05 Ago-05 Out-05 Dez-05 Fev-06 Abr-06 Jun-06 Ago-06 Out-06 Dez-06 Fev-07 Abr-07 Jul-07 Set-07 Dez-07 Set-08 Dez-08 Fev-09 Abr-09 Jun-09 Ago-09 Out-09 Dez-09 Falta de emprego Crimes e violência contra as pessoas Má qualidade da assistência médica Salários muito baixos Tráfico de drogas Má qualidade da educação Falta de apoio aos mais pobres
Proximate Context
Explosion in C Class 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 AB 26,421,172 32,809,554 28,078,466 29,377,015 30,217,541 C 62,702,248 66,716,976 86,207,480 84,621,066 92,850,384 DE 92,936,688 84,862,090 72,941,846 75,822,249 66,884,870 Total 182,060,108 184,388,620 187,227,792 189,820,330 189,952,795 C Class Increases by 30 million From 34% to 49% of the Brazilian Adult population Ipsos Cetelem 2005-2009 [ 10 ]
Consumer Confidence at all time high 170 150 130 110 124 116 115 114 111 117 114114 125 130 127 121121 124126126 129 138 144 145 141 134 132 130129128 129128 126 127130 134 142142 139 138137 138139138 139 140140140 Presidential Approval at an all time high as well 145 142 129 123 121 119 120 129 126 135 136138 149 146 146 90 74% 70 Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov Dez Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov Dez Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov Dez Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov Dez Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov Dez Jan Fev 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Ipsos ACSP 2005-2010 [ 11 ]
Presidential Approval at All time High 100 90 80 74 70 60 50 40 36 38 30 20 29 19 10 7 6 0 Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov Dez Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov Dez Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov Dez Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov Dez Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov Dez Jan Fev 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Ótima / Boa Regular Ruim / Péssima Ipsos 2005-2010 [ 12 ]
Brazilians are optimistic about their present conditions Desire for More of the Same [ 13 ]
What does this mean? [ 14 ]
Campaign Themes: Change v. Continuity
Presidential Elections are usually about BIG ideas Voter Decision Making quite simple - Change versus Continuity Rarely do voters pay attention to the policy detail [ 16 ]
Desire Change Scenario Typology Change Change with Continuity Middling Scenario Continuity Scenario favorable to the Opposition Candidate Scenario favorable to the Government Candidate Government Approval More Negative Government Approval More Positive Young, Garman and Shapiro 2010 [ 17 ]
100% 90% 80% Elections in International Perspective (Probability of Electoral Victory for government candidate) 91.8% 99.4% 87.1% 70% 60% 2010 Brazilian Elections 50% 40% 30% 20% 41.6% 2008 American Elections; 2002 Brazilian Elections 30.0% 10% 0% 2.6% Change Scenario Middling Scenario Continuity Scenario Succesor Incumbent Young, Garman and Shapiro 2010; 135 elections around the World [ 18 ]
Nothing is Deterministic!!!! Gore-Bush Successor higher bar than Incumbent Though Opposition Candidate needs UNIQUE circumstances to win Importance of Name Recognition More Continuity than Continuity Candidate [ 19 ]
Some Polling Numbers and Campaign effects
Some Voting Intention Numbers (First Round) 40 35 35 38 36 35 30 Second Round 30 25 Dilma 39% 25 20 Serra 44% 15 10 5 15 14 10 8 17 13 12 6 11 11 9 8 8 6 0 Sept/2009 Dec/2009 Feb/2010 Mar/2010 Serra Dilma Ciro Marina Branco/nulo Undecided Ibope -CNI [ 21 ]
Strong Increase in Dilma s Familiarity 70 65 67 60 55 56 50 53 45 40 Set/2009 Nov/2009 Mar/2010 Ibope -CNI [ 22 ]
What do these numbers really mean at this stage of the game? [ 23 ]
Strong Campaign Effects There will be Ups and Down but underlying structure the same [ 24 ]
Match-Ups: Dilma v. Serra
Dilma v. Serra Social Access: Personal Loans Greater Buying Power Decrease in Illiteracy Increase in Access to Higher Education Increase in Home Telephone and Own home Etc... Good Manager Healthcare We can do more of the same BUT better???? Better Continuity Candidate than Dilma Scare Tactics Dilma may undermine stability Increased Affluence: It s more of the same, Stupid?! [ 26 ]
Looking forward: Quality of Life Agenda
Rise of the Quality of Life Agenda 2005 vs. 2010 Crime 20 Drug Trafficking 12 Poor quality of education 12 Poor quality of healthcare 8 Lack -7 of help for the poor -9 Lack of jobs Need for public services to meet demands -11 Low salaries 15-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 [ 28 ]
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Rise of the Quality of Life Agenda: 2005 vs. 2010 [ 29 ] Abr-05 Mai-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Ago-05 Set-05 Out-05 Nov-05 Dez-05 Jan-06 Fev-06 Mar-06 Out-09 Abr-06 Mai-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Ago-06 Set-06 Out-06 Nov-06 Dez-06 Jan-07 Fev-07 Mar-07 Abr-07 Mai-07 Jul-07 Ago-07 Set-07 Nov-07 Dez-07 Jan-08 Set-08 Nov-08 Dez-08 Jan-09 Fev-09 Mar-09 Abr-09 Mai-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Ago-09 Set-09 Nov-09 Dez-09 Middle Class Demand Profile Quality of Life Jobs and Economy
Rise of the Quality of Life Agenda: 2005 vs. 2010 Important for local and state elections more than national Changing voter demands will condition the next crop of politicians Voter Demands more middle-class-like [ 30 ]
Final Thoughts
What will be the theme of the election? Generational Change within the Political Class Quality of Life Agenda will be most felt at the municipal and state levels Important: because will select the next generation of politicians Generation E (16 to 32 years of age) Most educated generation Formative years not during the Dictatorship or Hyper-Inflation [ 32 ]