Boomtown and Schrumpfdorf side by side Rural Germany in socio demographic change Peter Dehne Brandon University, 18th October 2012
Conny and Peter Dehne Peter Dehne 2
Hochschule Neubrandenburg founded 1992 2000 students applied and practical oriented teaching and sciences 4 faculties Programs f.e.: Nature conservation and land use planning Landscape agriculture agriculture Transfer of technology and knowledge especially into the surrounding region Peter Dehne 3
Hamburg Neubrandenburg Hannover Berlin Peter Dehne 4
Help yourself! Chicken in the village Niederlistingen/Hessen Peter Dehne 5
Üllepülle felting of world level Renovation felting workshop workplaces for locals production of clothes on the world market 6
Martkwert Datterode Daily careselforganizied, tofind partners, combination of supply(food, health care, meeting points) 7
Attenkirchener senior service e.v. (ASS) Provision ofpracticalhelpforeverydaylife intergenerarionell activities and help carsharing and carpooling for seniors combination of mobily supply and care for the elderly Versorgung, Dienstleistungen und Mobilität Quelle: www.baunetzwissen.de
network of seniors for childs and juniors in the Neubrandenburg region juniorsandseniors, talkwitheachother, help, support, agency for volunteer office Peter Dehne 9
www.zeitbank-vorpommern.de Eggesin - Town of the Third Generation Small town for seniors partnership between old and young - House for all generations- establishing a Timebank to share working hours between old and young 10
Wanfried wherecitizenssave buildings and make dutch happy Wanfried - wo Bürger Häuser retten und Holländer glücklich machen! 11
The key is communication! things happen by chances impulses from outside phantasy and ideas courage to strike new paths public awareness political will 12
Canada - Germany Canada Germany surface area 9.984.670 km² 357.022 km² residents 34.300.300 81.306.000 E/km² 3,4 227,7 Llfe expactancy 82 80 fertility rate 1,58 1,4 Peter Dehne 13
Reality Neubrandenburg In the northeast of Germany formergdr (Germany Democratic Republic) A townfor industrialization of the north expansion target by 1990: 100.000 residents Today 65.000 residents and still a shrinking city Peter Dehne 14
Development of residents in Neubrandenburg Peter Dehne 15
437! A region with a very high future risk Lack of perspective for families A Loser Region Far below average of purchasing power Economic decline region with residual population Shrinking region Minus-minus for all indicators Peter Dehne 16
Wolfserwartungsland Peter Dehne 17
Population development (2006-2030) - 86.750 residents (= - 28,7 %) Forecast of demographic in Mecklenburgischen Seenplatte (2006-2030) Peter Dehne 18
Demographic shift in age structure by 2030 over65 agegroup= + 48 % agegroupof20 30 = -61% Peter Dehne 19
Gap of well educated people or competition on workers Development andforecastof15 25 yearsoldand60-65 years old (2000 2030) in county Vorpommern Peter Dehne 20
Demographic change in space Regional concerns of demographicchange: Dynamic of the population ageing Internationalisation Change ofwaysoflife, urbanisation Germany will lose 15-20% of ist populationupto2060 to65 70 mill. Residents Fertility rate: 1,4 Peter Dehne 21
Growing and shrinking municipalities Change of the general conditions Globalisation Tranformation of state and society Demographic change Shortage of ressources Peter Dehne 22
Growing and shrinking municipalities Change of the general conditions Globalisation Tranformation of state and society Demographic change Shortage of ressources Peter Dehne 23
Growing and shrinking municipalities Change of the general conditions Globalisation Tranformation of state and society Demographic change Shortage of ressources Peter Dehne 24
Growing and shrinking municipalities Change of the general conditions Globalisation Tranformation of state and society Demographic change Shortage of ressources Peter Dehne 25
Growing and shrinking municipalities Change of the general conditions Globalisation Tranformation of state and society Demographic change Shortage of ressources Peter Dehne 26
spatially spread spatially contraction Peter Dehne 27
The new urban appeal increased appreceation of urban life ageing and decreasing mobility thinning out of social services, rising energy prices urban renaissance or reurbanisation growing regions shrinking regions Peter Dehne 28
Regions in a downward spiral less economic competitiveness critical situation on the labour market prosperityfarbelowaverage, lesspurchasingpower out-migration of young, well educated people no attractive jobs emigration of young, well educated people Who remains? provisions of public services unsustainable more elderly people shift of the relation between the gender less quality of life and bad image empty building and decline of property prices social problems and scepticism regarding democracy bad Image Peter Dehne 29
Regional polarization or winner and loser few growing and many shrinking regions major cities are engines of growth again great diversity of development sidebysideofgrowth and shrinking rezentralisationon all levels Peter Dehne 30
Where is the solution? Peter Dehne 31
Competitions growing: between regions and municipalities Competition for employees Competition for residents Competition for models of life Competition for finances/money Small-town Eggesin in 2004: - 40% residents, 30% unemployment, 600 empty flats Peter Dehne 32
What is at issue in the future? well educated workers instead of workplaces Good general conditions and quality of life Education, education, education reconciliation of work and family life Cooperation instead of competition image, Identity, niches Contentment/modesty Peter Dehne 33
The enabling state capabilities and scope for a independent and communitybased regional development! regional development = economicandsocialregional development! Peter Dehne 34
Two questions foran independent and community-based regional development! The question of money! Local government finances Public subsidies The question of selforganisation Peter Dehne 35
quality of life = public services Healthcare/ doctors Care fortheelderly Child care/ Kindergarten Local(food) supply local administration Transportation and accessibility Recreation, leisure and living together Restaurants/pubs Culture Housing and settlement Youth work Fire rescue Handicaped people Roads/maintenance Water/sewage broadband supply Whattodo? Peter Dehne 36
What we need! nonewplan but a more objective discussion without emotions! inter-communal multi sectoral Discursive and process-oriented independently medium-termoriented a process of a strategic and medium-term planning of public services Peter Dehne 37
A regional strategy for provisions of public services How is the regional population distribution in 2030? What does this mean to (location bound) infrastructure? f.e. schools, child care, doctors, elderly care, sports, culture How do distances and accessibility change? What are the costs of future infrastructure supply? How can the quality be assured? What to do? Peter Dehne 38
Moduls or essential components of the strategy Small sized population forecast Accessibility modeling Estimation of costs Needs assessment Discursive, cooperative, interdisciplinary process with working groups Development and assessment of adaptation scenarios and strategies Implementation, continuation Population Settlement Accessibility Needs Peter Dehne 39
Schools in Mecklenburgische Seenplatte preservation in danger Peter Dehne 40
Provision of familiy doctors Kyffhäuserkreis Priorization of doctor's surgeries according to their importance for the area-wide provision Peter Dehne 41
Program of action for the regional provision of public services 21 pilot-regions nationalwide Cooperation between municipalities Counties greater regions about6 mill twoyears Peter Dehne 42
Lessons Learned A great similarity between Germany and Canada Specificconditions in canada/manitoba Urbanisation started earlier Immigration Ghost Towns Specific conditions in Germany Strong municipalities and regions awarenessoftheeffectsof demographic change Regional cooperation Learn from each other! peter.dehne@hs-nb.de www.regional-daseinsvorsorge.de Peter Dehne 43