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Ups and Downs: Danish Party Membership Figures 1935-2014 Denmark had well-established, democratic, membership-based parties on both sides of the left-right ideological spectrum already in the interwar period where the membership figures totaled more than 400.000. In this period Social Democrats had around 200,000 members and organized thereby more than a quarter of their electorate. The other major class based mass party, the agrarian Liberals, had around 130,000 members, while the Conservatives had around 70,000 and the Social Liberals 30,000. Declining party membership figures is the common trend across the part of the Western world which previously had a tradition for mass membership based political parties. This is also the trend in Denmark. At the aggregate level, party membership figures peaked in the 1950s at a little less than 600,000 members and 28 percent of the electorate. The Social Democrats and Liberals had by far the largest shares of this with, respectively, around 280.000 and 200.000 members. Since then the aggregate party membership has declined in Denmark as well as elsewhere. The decline was most staggering till the 1980 s; afterwards it has been more moderate. In an international comparison the Danish decline is drastic due to the high level of party membership figures at the outset. Turning to the party level, looking, first, into the two old and historically largest parties, the Social Democrats (SD) and Liberals (V) both peaked in the 1950 s and has experienced a similar decline even though the Social Democrats started off at a higher level than the Liberals. The Liberals actually overtook the Social Democrats markedly in the period from 1993 to around 2005. The Conservatives (KF), which is also among the four old parties, have had a slightly other development with a peak in 1967 at which they rose almost to the levels of the Liberals and Social Democrats. However, they had a more drastic decline in the following years, after which they have experienced a moderate decline along the lines of the other two parties. The development in the membership figures of these three parties are depicted in Figure 1. 1
Figure 1. Party membership figures for SD, V and KF. 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 SD KF V 50000 0 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Turning to the smaller parties, their membership figures are, as depicted in Figure 2, much more of a rollercoaster ride. The smallest of the four old parties, the Social Liberals (RV), never reached the levels of the other old parties. Actually, the Social Liberals peaked in 1960 with 35,000 members. They have also experienced a decline, in particular in the period 1960-1980. However, their membership figures stabilized in the 1990 s, rose in 2000-2005, and has been going up and down since then. These four parties made up the core of the Danish party system until 1960 when the Socialist People s Party (SF) entered the party system. The membership figure of SF has had ups and downs in the period from 1960 to 1980. Afterwards the ups and downs have continued at a less frequent pace: the trend was upwards until 1990, and then downwards till 2000. In the period between the general elections of 2001 and 2011, SF tripled their number of members. However, since 2011 their membership figure has declined. The Christian Democrats (KD; originally named the Christian People s Party) was very successful at the outset and grew markedly within their first years in the early 1970s. However, since then their membership figure has declined slowly but steadily. Even though they have not been represented in parliament since 2005 they retain a membership of more than 2000. 2
The Red-Green Alliance (EL), established in 1989, increased their membership at a slow pace in the beginning but have in particular since 2010 seen a more drastic increase almost doubling their membership figures. Danish People s Party (DF) has had increasing party membership figures since their creation in 1996, as a splinter party from the Progress Party, and they have reached the levels of Socialist People s Party and surpassed Social Liberals. The newly created Liberal Alliance (LA) has had increasing figures at the outset, similar to those experienced by the Danish People s party in their first years. Figure 2. Party membership figures for EL, SF, CD, RV, KD, DF and LA. 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 EL SF RV KD DF LA 10000 5000 0 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 3
The newer parties have not been able to establish membership organizations that come close to the sizes of the membership organizations of the Social Democrats and Liberals but some of the newer parties have overtaken the Social Liberals and Conservatives. At the aggregate level Danish party membership has been in decline even if the number of parties has increased because these newer parties have not been able to compensate for the declining membership figures of the older parties. In sum, aggregate Danish party member figures are in decline. However, Danish party membership figures are not only about decline since several parties have experienced increases in their membership figures in the period since 2001. Furthermore, even with declining membership figures, parties still enroll new party members but they are not able to enroll at the same pace as they lose members. Table 1. Danish party membership figures Party EL SF SD RV KD KF V DF LA Year 1935 204000 28000 54000 136000 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 207000 30000 71000 129000 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 243532 27500 91000 154000 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 283907 30500 80050 201429 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 278229 31500 85494 188058 1956 1957 1958 4
1959 1960 3334 259459 35000 108751 192629 1961 252667 30600 113740 189207 1962 5125 237671 32100 116886 185382 1963 5354 228137 31600 118880 180911 1964 229275 30000 125918 181272 1965 4722 223977 30000 132102 177611 1966 5451 188859 25600 141015 168580 1967 7803 177997 27900 143455 159340 1968 5166 176729 27900 139803 155925 1969 4433 179609 25000 139855 149164 1970 4152 177507 25600 1230 129195 136207 1971 4423 165645 25000 5204 122239 128657 1972 6580 152174 24000 110185 119034 1973 6586 130476 24000 6000 100679 114186 1974 6266 122722 22000 9000 91382 112543 1975 5657 122394 20100 12000 74863 113112 1976 5438 123140 18000 12000 62224 109881 1977 4550 111199 14300 10958 46655 105500 1978 4475 111613 14000 10809 44097 100194 1979 4424 105435 13000 10810 44000 98482 1980 4668 101387 10100 10440 44873 94754 1981 5218 99546 10000 11105 52082 92845 1982 5787 97614 9800 11031 52000 95807 1983 6040 93726 10000 10862 54000 89387 1984 7260 97318 11000 10823 51369 86901 1985 8003 90739 10100 10558 51734 87461 1986 8750 86845 10100 10316 48287 88328 1987 8492 84015 10000 9630 45121 85638 1988 9331 79414 9900 9184 42444 82843 1989 8797 75162 9900 9629 40392 79425 1990 7903 76941 6850 9347 36610 75224 1991 7891 74165 6600 9049 33075 73926 1992 7806 70029 5600 8548 30856 73290 1993 7258 68535 5578 8250 30000 82263 1994 6890 65733 5934 7825 31000 83039 1995 1189 6654 62452 5519 7330 30750 83077 1996 1235 1997 1998 6000 1999 5
2000 1945 6473 50248 6000 6186 21838 76927 6448 2001 1992 6513 55103 5900 6281 22274 75769 6153 2002 2366 7065 54668 6700 6208 21031 75935 6680 2003 2321 7088 52460 7500 5953 19901 72850 6640 2004 2524 7026 51011 8200 5581 19187 64888 6613 2005 3739 8213 57000 9200 5292 19478 66212 7337 2006 4127 8601 56808 9800 5288 18035 61018 8612 2007 4525 9647 51079 9400 5072 16707 54650 8390 2008 4336 15630 48878 7900 4052 15928 51781 9973 2009 4373 16518 46052 7600 2708 15545 50356 10178 2010 5111 17883 46052 7600 2445 13864 44361 10186 2200 2011 7714 17588 42024 9340 2476 13148 42132 10230 6200 2012 8008 15633 44328 9100 2397 12225 43835 10684 6735 2013 9470 11589 42200 7500 2397 11812 43835 12064 5398 2014 9390 2151 14587 Sources for all parties: (1935-1955): Niels Thomsen (1992) Det politiske rodnet. In: Jørgen Goul Andersen, Hans Jørgen Nielsen, Niels Thomsen & Jörgen Westerståhl (eds) Vi og vore politikere. København: Spektrum. (1960-1995): Lars Bille (1997) Partier i forandring. Odense: Odense Universitetsforlag. (parliament)www.http://www.ft.dk/folketinget/oplysningen/partier/partiernes_medlemstal.aspx [parliament]. (2000-2012): http://www.ft.dk/folketinget/oplysningen/partier/partiernes_medlemstal.aspx (parliament). (2013-2014): Stated by the party secretariats. Notwithstanding the membership figures parties have a central role to play in representative democracy since they in practice have a monopoly on candidate election at the national level and to a large extent dominate the candidate election both at the local, regional and European level. Since parties nominate candidates, they have crucial say on who gets elected. They decide whom the voters may choose from. Furthermore, through their (almost) monopoly on parliamentarian representation, they dominate policy formulation whereby their interest aggregation processes becomes interesting and relevant for democracy at large. Even though less than four percent of the Danish electorate enroll as party members, party members are central in a representative democracy as the Danish, and it is therefore both relevant and interesting to ask: Who are the party members? Are they representative for the voters in regard to their characteristics and their opinions? How are members participating in and for their parties? Does it make a difference who participates or not? These and other questions are explored in these publications on the current state of Danish party membership: 6
Karina Kosiara-Pedersen (2015) Danish Party Membership 2000-2012 in Anika Gauja & Emilie van Haute (eds) The current state of party membership. Routledge. Political parties play a central role in Danish politics, and all parties have membership organizations. The Danish case follows the general West European trend of declining membership figures. But all parties recruit members, and some have increasing membership figures. This chapter provides, first, a status on party membership criteria and party members rights and obligations. On the basis of a party member survey conducted in 2012 the chapter then proceeds to show who the Danish party members are in regard to gender, age, education, political opinions, enrollment and activism. Amongst other things this chapter shows that party members enroll primarily for political reasons; that they are not representative in regard to gender, age and education, as they are to a larger extent than the electorate male, older and longer educated; that their political opinions are dispersed along the political spectrum, and that party members are spread out along the passive-active continuum from those only paying their fees to the ambassadors, campaign activists and fiery souls spending most of their spare time on their party membership. Karina Kosiara-Pedersen (forthcoming 2015) The Impact of Children on Party Member Activism. The Copernicus Journal of Political Studies. Party member activism varies in type and intensity, and it is necessary to take this into consideration when explaining the degree of participation. One potential explanation for the level of party member participation is the extent to which there are children in the household. Based on the Danish party member survey of 2012, analyses show: First, the cost of having children is more important when explaining more demanding activities than the less demanding activities, and, second, the impact of the cost of having children in the household is larger when including the intensity of participation in the dependent variable. Third, the smaller the children, the larger the cost and the larger the negative impact on party activism no matter what type or intensity. Furthermore, there are only limited gender differences in the impact of having children so that children, in particular in the young age group, do not have a larger impact on women than men, except when it comes to meeting attendance. In sum, children do have an impact on party member activism, and the gender gap in this effect is very limited. Karina Kosiara-Pedersen (2014) Partimedlemmernes deltagelse og syn på partidemokrati 2000-2012 [Party member participation and view on party democracy 2000-2012]. Politica, Vol. 46, No. 3. Parties increasingly apply new information- and communication technologies, professionalize campaigning, party organizations and membership administration, allow for new forms of attachment and blurs the line between members and other party supporters. This alters the conditions for party membership. The question is whether party members participation and their perception of their own influence have 7
changed. Two surveys among Danish party members in 2000 and 2012 show: First, that both members with intra-party office and new members to a larger extent seek political influence within their parties in 2012 compared to 2000. Second, the dissatisfaction with intra-party democracy is larger in 2012 than in 2000 for members with intra-party office. Thirdly, the satisfaction with intra-party democracy is larger for the new members in 2012 than it was for the new members in 2000. Karina Kosiara-Pedersen (2014) Partimedlemmer i valgkamp [Party members campaigning] in Kasper Møller Hansen & Karina Kosiara-Pedersen (2014) Folketingsvalgkampen 2011 i perspektiv. København: Jurist- og Økonomiforbundets Forlag. This chapter shows how party members according to the party member survey of 2012 participated in the general election in 2011. The chapter shows that all parties have a high level of campaign ambassadors among their members, but that the level of campaign activists are lower and varies more among the parties. Karina Kosiara-Pedersen (2013) Partimedlemskab i et demokratisk perspektiv [Party membership in a democratic perspective] in Karina Kosiara-Pedersen, Gustav P. Nedergaard, Emil Lobe Suenson (eds) Statskundskab i praksis. Klassiske teorier og moderne problemer. København: Karnov Group. This chapter shows whether the number of party members, their characteristics and participation contributes to parties democratic role. The first part of the chapter shows what democratic role the two democratic perspectives of Alf Ross and Hal Koch attributes to parties. On this basis party member figures, characteristics and participation are analyzed. Party members contribute to parties democratic roles in both the participatory and competitive perspective but parties and their members are still at some distance from the prescription of these two perspectives. Karina Kosiara-Pedersen & Kasper Møller Hansen: Danske Partimedlemmer 2012. Dokumentationsrapport fra projektet Moderne Partimedlemskab, 2010-2013 [Danish party members 2012. Documentation report from the project Modern Party Membership 2010-2013], Department of Political Science, University of Copenhagen. This report documents on the method and data collection and presents the first, basic results of the survey. It is available (in Danish) at: http://cvap.polsci.ku.dk/forskning/mopa/mopa.pdf. 8