Campaign Yoyo: After a Dramatic, Early, Eves-Led Rebound, Perceived Tory Hubris (e.g. the TV attack ad) Is Propelling the Liberals towards a Landslide Second in a Series of COMPAS Polls on the Ontario Provincial Election September 19, 2003 COMPAS Inc. Public Opinion and Customer Research
Contents Tory Collapse Image of Hubris and Self-Inflicted Advertising...3 Advertising the Villain in the Piece...6 Overview...6 Self-Destructive Tory Advertising...6 Liberal Advertising of Uneven Quality...8 Powerful NDP Advertising...10 Winners and Losers in the Ad Wars...12 The Issues...13 Issue Paradox The Replacement of One Tory Issue (Leadership) with Another (Economy) and the Collapse of Tory Support...13 A Smattering of Narrow Issues Pro- and Anti-Gay Marriage, Pro- Independent Schools, Pro-Teacher, Anti-Teacher Unions, Hydro, the Environment...16 Methodology...16 2
Second Dramatic Turnaround of the Campaign Tory Collapse Image of Hubris and Self-Inflicted Advertising Less than two weeks ago, the Tories and Grits were at virtual parity. The perceived superiority of Ernie Eves leadership drove the Tory recovery after a long period of sustained Liberal superiority in voter affections. Coming after the SARS, West Nile, and hydro blackout crises, leadership was rising as a campaign issue, and Eves was far more esteemed as a leader than Liberal Dalton, as evidenced in the tables below. Voters felt that they knew what the Tories stood for, much less so in the case of the opposition parties. Two weeks ago, the COMPAS report to Global, the Post, and the Citizen said: The Liberals are faltering and the Tories are on a dramatic upswing, all mainly in the last couple of weeks. The past two weeks more than reversed the effects of the preceding two weeks. The Tories are back where they were in voter preferences a month ago, as shown in table 1. Eves has lost his dramatic lead as the leader best suited to be Premier, as shown in table 2. After rising as the factor driving the vote three and four weeks ago, leadership has plummeted as a consideration down to 12% after being singled out by 28% of the electorate just two weeks ago as the factor driving their choice of political party to vote for. The economy is rising somewhat as an issue and benefits the Tories insofar as voters concerned most about the economy, especially taxes, are strongly committed to Eves. But PC support has fallen 3
among those voters the majority concerned about matters other than the economy when contemplating their vote. 1 Though Eves has lost his immense margin over as best leader for the province, he is still highly esteemed. If leadership were the only issue, the parties would be tied instead of the Liberals heading for a landslide. It is as if many Ontarians still think that Eves is well suited for the job but just don t want to re-elect the Tories. So they take the view that leadership is unimportant or say to COMPAS interviewers today that they are not sure who would make the best leader. At 36%, the proportion of voters saying that they don t know who would make the best leader for the province is 11 percentage points up from just two weeks ago (see table 2). In practice, the Liberals are at 50% in voter intentions, up from 46% two weeks ago. The Tories have dropped seemingly like a stone to 33%, their lowest point this calendar year and down from a highpoint of 41% two weeks ago. At 14%, the New Democrats appear to be creeping upwards as they often do at election time. If the present distribution held to balloting day, the Liberals would win such a resounding landslide in legislative seats that might be tempted to gloat at his various internal and external detractors of recent seasons. As discussed below, the key driver of the Tory collapse of the last two weeks is a perception of Tory arrogance. As explored below in some detail, the Tory attack ad on backfired to an extraordinary degree. It likely backfired in part because it was broadcast during a period when other events the reptilian kitten-eater and professional help remarks in official PC press releases helped paint a portrait of a government that suffered from insufferable arrogance. The Premier refused to apologize for these remarks, thereby reinforcing a perception of government hubris. In practice, the remaining two weeks may be enough time for the Tories to learn a lesson but it is not a long time for them to make a recovery. 1 In this connection, it is worth recalling that respondents in the last wave of polling said that they did not expect that the election of or Eves would impact significantly on the future of the province. 4
Table 1: Vote Intention [i.e. combined effect of initial vote question plus how-are-you-leaning question to respondents who had just said that they were undecided]. Date: Month/Day / 08/ The Liberals led by Dalton 51 49 46 50 The Progressive Conservatives led by Ernie 35 35 41 33 Eves The NDP led by Howard 11 15 12 14 Unprompted: Green party 2 1 1 3 Unprompted: Family Coalition 0 0 * 0 Unprompted: Other 1 1 1 0 DNK/REF/Won t Vote Excluded 25 34 26 26 Table 2: Q4. [ALL RESPONDENTS] Irrespective of his party or policies, which of the three leaders [ROTATE] Ernie Eves, Dalton, or Howard would make the best leader of the province? Date: Month/Day / / / / / Ernie Eves 30 38 28 74 87 78 12 11 14 2 10 17 19 13 Dalton 29 23 26 7 3 4 60 54 59 24 2 17 12 11 5 Howard 12 15 11 4 3 4 9 13 10 64 84 51 5 8 2 DNK/REF 30 25 36 16 7 15 19 15 12 12 22 67 63 80 5
Advertising the Villain in the Piece Overview Broadcast advertising is to modern elections what electronics is to modern warfare. Good advertising wins elections, bad advertising loses them. Tory support collapsed during the last two weeks in substantial measure because PC advertising was the worst of the campaign. One ad in particular, focusing on as not being up to the job, drove Tory voters to the Liberal camp in droves. Liberal advertising was more effective than the Tories but not of exceptional quality. s party was able to attract voters disgruntled by the Tory messaging partly because disaffected Tory voters could readily see themselves voting Liberal but not NDP and partly because the Liberal ad that did backfire (about 9 area toll highway 407) reached almost no one. The most effective advertising probably came from the NDP but the NDP has little prospect of rising to second place because of strong residual mistrust of the party. Self-Destructive Tory Advertising About half the potential electorate and hence the overwhelming majority of Ontarians who actually vote saw two Progressive Conservative television ads: one declaring the would raise taxes and was not fit for the job, the other about Eves leadership during the SARS, West Nile, and hydro crises (see accompanying interview schedule for the numbers). Respondents who saw the ads were asked how the ads had affected their feelings about the campaign. The SARS/West Nile/hydro ad exercised a neutral effect on views. Approximately equal numbers said that the ad motivated them to be pro-tory, anti-liberal, or anti-ndp as said that the ad motivated them to be anti-tory, pro-liberal, or pro-ndp, as displayed in table 3. Given these numbers, the ad could be classified as mediocre. Table 3: Impact of the PC TV Ad on Eves Crisis Leadership 6
More pro-pc or pro-eves 28 63 16 15 14 More anti-pc or anti-eves 20 7 32 44 7 More pro-liberal or pro- 6 3 14 0 2 More anti-liberal or anti- 1 4 0 2 0 More pro-ndp or pro- 1 0 2 4 0 More anti-ndp or anti- 1 0 2 0 0 More anti-all parties or less willing to vote at all 4 2 2 7 7 Had no affect/neutral affect 14 17 15 23 Other [SPECIFY] 1 0 1 2 2 DNK/REF 19 8 14 11 43 Mediocre is too mellow a word to describe voter reaction to the ad about taxes that concluded that was not up to the job. Many voters were livid. Even voters intent on remaining with the Progressive Conservative party volunteered to COMPAS interviewers that they were upset with the ad, that their party should focus on what a re-elected Tory government would do for the province rather than deliver a vague character assassination of the opposition leader. While the ad contained a lot of substantive policy content (about taxes), viewers tended to perceive the ad as a personal attack on the opposition leader rather than as a declaration of policy or policy difference. In practice, this Tory television commercial, seen by half the province, drove voters away from the government and towards the opposition Liberals in large numbers. As shown in table 4, 37% of viewers became more anti-tory or pro- Liberal as a result of the ad compared to 15% becoming more pro-tory or anti- Liberal. This Tory-sponsored ad was probably the most impactful commercial of the campaign in terms of changing vote intentions, particularly because it was seen by so many voters, but its impact was not in the intended direction. 7
The negative impact of the ad was likely accentuated by a climate of perceived Tory arrogance or hubris, reinforced by media reports of a Tory official characterizing as a reptilian kitten eater and the Tory characterization of the Liberal leader as needing professional (i.e. psychiatric) help. Table 4: Impact of the PC TV Ad on Taxes and s Not Being Up to the Job More pro-pc or pro-eves 10 32 1 2 4 More anti-pc or anti-eves 30 13 44 41 16 More pro-liberal or pro- 7 3 14 2 0 More anti-liberal or anti- 5 6 4 6 3 More pro-ndp or pro- 2 0 1 7 1 More anti-ndp or anti- 1 2 1 2 0 More anti-all parties or less willing to vote at all 12 9 11 17 15 Had no affect/neutral affect 17 25 14 6 Other [SPECIFY] 1 0 1 0 1 DNK/REF 16 11 9 38 Liberal Advertising of Uneven Quality About half of viewers saw the Liberal ad in which declared that he would not change tax levels, and this ad was somewhat effective. Thus, 34% of viewers became more pro-liberal or anti-pc as a result while 19% became more pro-pc or anti-liberal, as shown in table 5. This was a reasonably good ad but delivered no knock-out punch. 8
This Liberal ad cannot be said to account for the enormous margin acquired by the Grits over the Tories in the last two weeks because the Liberal margin among voters is greater than the Liberal margin achieved among viewers of this ad. Nonetheless, the impact of the ad was positive and, unlike the Tory ad attacking, the effect was in the intended direction. Table 5: Impact of the Liberal TV Ad on Taxes More pro-pc or pro-eves 7 1 2 2 More anti-pc or anti-eves 3 1 4 7 1 More pro-liberal or pro- 31 16 59 17 23 More anti-liberal or anti- 16 28 6 17 More pro-ndp or pro- 3 0 1 16 1 More anti-ndp or anti- 0 0 0 0 0 More anti-all parties or less willing to vote at all 6 9 2 4 9 Had no affect/neutral affect 14 13 25 27 Other [SPECIFY] 1 0 1 4 0 DNK/REF 16 14 12 8 33 While the Liberal television ad on taxes was at least somewhat effective, the party s radio ad complaining about tolls on the Toronto by-pass highway # 407 was ineffective, albeit far less self-destructive than the Tory television ad attacking on taxes. The key factor protecting the Liberals is that so few people heard their radio ad (17%). Among those who did hear it, only % became more pro-liberal or anti- Tory while as many %--became more anti-liberal or pro-tory. Thus, if the Liberals had run the ad more often, they would almost certainly have impeded their own climb in voter intentions, particularly in those areas where they purchased radio spot time. 9
The bottom line is that the Tory advertising did far more for the Liberals than did the Liberal advertising. Table 6: Impact of the Liberal Radio on # 407 More pro-pc or pro-eves 9 20 6 9 3 More anti-pc or anti-eves 4 0 10 0 3 More pro-liberal or pro- 14 3 33 8 3 More anti-liberal or anti- 9 20 6 0 6 More pro-ndp or pro- 1 0 2 8 0 More anti-ndp or anti- 2 6 0 0 0 More anti-all parties or less willing to vote at all 5 3 0 33 5 Had no affect/neutral affect 24 37 15 1 25 Other [SPECIFY] 2 3 4 0 0 DNK/REF 29 9 23 26 57 Powerful NDP Advertising The NDP ran a television ad on hydro bills and public power that was seen by slightly under half the electorate (see accompanying interview schedule). Altogether, % of viewers said that they became more pro-ndp as a result while 16% said that they became more anti-ndp, as displayed in table 7. The ad is effective insofar as the proportion who reported becoming more pro-ndp is larger than the party s share of the vote. 10
In this regard, the NDP radio ad on auto insurance is especially effective, as shown in table 8. Indeed, it is amazingly effective for the NDP. Table 7: Impact of the NDP TV Ad about Hydro More pro-pc or pro-eves 8 20 1 3 5 More anti-pc or anti-eves 6 1 15 5 2 More pro-liberal or pro- 5 2 11 0 3 More anti-liberal or anti- 1 2 0 0 2 More pro-ndp or pro- 6 24 47 11 More anti-ndp or anti- 16 33 12 6 7 More anti-all parties or less willing to vote at all 5 6 2 8 6 Had no affect/neutral affect 17 14 17 19 Other [SPECIFY] 2 1 1 0 4 DNK/REF 22 12 20 14 42 11
Table 8: Impact of the NDP Radio Ad about Auto Insurance More pro-pc or pro-eves 4 10 0 5 4 More anti-pc or anti-eves 4 3 8 5 0 More pro-liberal or pro- 7 1 12 9 3 More anti-liberal or anti- * 0 0 0 1 More pro-ndp or pro- 23 23 46 16 More anti-ndp or anti- 15 29 11 4 10 More anti-all parties or less willing to vote at all 4 1 5 5 1 Had no affect/neutral affect 25 14 17 30 Other [SPECIFY] * 0 1 0 0 DNK/REF 22 14 25 10 35 Winners and Losers in the Ad Wars A question that many might ask is which was the most effective ad of the campaign. This is a difficult question to answer because the parties are not fighting for support on a level playing field. For example, NDP advertisingdesign people face the disadvantage of marketing a party with low popularity and high unpopularity. In light of the un-level playing field, one might be tempted to say that the NDP had the best advertising campaign and the NDP radio ad on auto insurance was the best ad of the campaign so far. The Tory ad attacking was certainly the worst of the campaign so far. 12
The Issues Issue Paradox The Replacement of One Tory Issue (Leadership) with Another (Economy) and the Collapse of Tory Support As shown in table 9, voters care dramatically less about leadership when thinking of whom they will support and they care more about the economy than they did two weeks ago. Leadership has fallen from 28% to 12% while the economy has rise from 14% to %. Leadership was a pro-eves and pro-pc theme two weeks ago. The perceived hubris of the Tories has resulted in staunch Tories remaining with the party and replacing leadership with the economy as their rationale for voting Tory while Tory-to-Liberal switchers move from leadership to another noneconomic issue as the rationale for their newly acquired Liberal preference. The economy, especially taxes, remains a Tory strength. With the main exception of voters who say that their vote will be driven by a desire to keep the teachers unions in their place, just about all other issues are associated with movement away from the Tories. Given the negative power of the Tory ad in driving voters to the Liberals and the Tories new image of hubris, as discussed earlier, we take the view that policy issues have actually abated as drivers of voter choice. 13
Table 9: Thinking of how you re likely to vote, please tell me what factor most affects how you ll probably vote? [DO NOT READ LIST BUT SELECT RESPONSE IF THE CATEGORY FITS OR OTHERWISE WRITE IN THE OPEN-ENDED RESPONSE] Date: Month/Day / / / / / Economy Category, total, 13 14 22 33 9 11 16 4 10 22 13 12 17 including Tax cuts, make govt smaller or 7 7 9 11 12 17 5 4 6 0 5 13 9 5 5 more efficient Hydro-specify 1 1 2 0 0 1 1 2 3 0 0 3 2 2 2 Education category, total, 16 14 19 16 13 14 28 22 9 13 9 15 including Education antiteacher, prevent strikes or control 2 1 3 7 3 6 1 1 2 0 0 1 2 0 2 the teachers Education-proteacher, protect * * 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 2 1 0 0 1 their salaries Education-proindependent/ private schools, 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 3 0 0 1 protect private educ tax credit Health category, total 12 10 17 10 5 13 13 15 10 14 20 14 11 20 Leadership, total 20 28 12 36 17 26 10 16 16 13 22 28 13 14
Date: Month/Day / / / / / Parties and Government Record 13 13 8 11 15 9 19 13 17 6 5 1 0 Category, total Social Issues Category, total, 4 6 6 2 2 8 3 3 3 5 9 7 7 8 9 including Homosexualityprotect gay marriage, 0 * 1 0 0 3 0 1 * 0 0 2 0 0 1 enhance gay rights Homosexualityprohibit gay marriage, reduce 0 * 1 0 0 1 0 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 3 gay rights Environment Category, total 1 1 3 0 1 1 1 1 1 10 2 4 0 0 1 Other, i.e. residual, total, 5 1 0 10 0 0 3 1 0 2 2 0 10 3 0 including Auto insurance * * 1 * * 1 * * * * * 6 * * 1 DNK/REF 14 12 13 13 8 5 13 7 11 14 5 14 17 30 24 15
A Smattering of Narrow Issues Pro- and Anti-Gay Marriage, Pro-Independent Schools, Pro-Teacher, Anti-Teacher Unions, Hydro, the Environment A smattering of new issues have emerged in the last couple of weeks. Each accounts for 1-3% of the electorate. But none of these issues attracts a sizeable clientele. A few want more public support for independent schools in the form of tax deductions, and are inclined to vote Tory. A few want to protect teachers and their salaries, and are inclined to vote Liberal. Some are concerned about hydro, and are inclined to the NDP. A number have become concerned about the environment, and are divided among the parties. Table 9 provides some details. Methodology A representative sample of n>800 Ontario voters was interviewed September 16-, 2003 by professional interviewers using CATI. The principal investigator was Dr. Conrad Winn. 16