European Economic Integration in a Global Economic Setting China Russia and CESEE Conference on European Economic Integration (CEEI) 211 Altin Tanku November
Overview Future of the CESEE in a Global World Theory vs. Assumptions and fortune telling. The one and only assumption: Globalization is here to stay. Taking stock of current developments CESEE vs. Russia, vs. China Model of growth Trade links FDI Vs. EU
CESEE-Russia-China: Friend or Foe There is no limit to growth If one strikes all the right cords. There is potential for growth cooperation as there is potential for destructive competition Theory of economic growth Y = AK L α 1 α» Export lead strategies Theory of international trade Factor price equalization theorem
CESEE-EU CESEE model of growth Internal Market Factors Factor redistribution» early transition period Absorption lead model» period leading to the crisis Export lead strategies Cheap labor New relatively large markets Lots of FDI exclusively from EU Close partners in geography and other dimensions Moving up the value chain
EU-15 FDI to ROW 7. As percent of total FDI outflows 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1999 NMS Source EUROSTAT RUSIA CEE China SEE
EU Share of total FDI Inflows 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. Russia EU-27 % of total Russia EU-15 % of total SEE EU-27 % of total SEE EU-15 % of total China EU-27 % of total China EU-15 % of total Source EUROSTAT & UNCTAD
Catching up at any speed 18 4 16 35 14 3 1 25 GDP per Capita 1 8 15 6 1 4 5 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Bulgaria China Croatia Hungary Kosovo M acedonia, FYR M ontenegro Romania Russian Federation Serbia Poland European Union Source World Bank & UNCTAD
CE vs. SEE: similar yet different CE vs. SEE model of growth Similarities Transition economies with cheap labor Differences Geographical distance Market size Trade partners and Industries CE important EU partner, north west to north east vs. south west to south east trade EU could live without SEE can it?
Croatia Bosnia Herzegovina 75 6 5 5 4 25 3 2 1-25 -1-5 AUSTRIA GERMANY ITALY LUXEMBOURG -2 Austria SLOVENIA SEE Russia Slovenia Italy Germany Albania Serbia 45 6 35 5 4 25 3 15 2 5 1-5 Russia Austria Italy Germany Netherlands Greece Authors calculations based on National Authorities data Greece Italy Austria Germany
The other Export EU Remittances Oflow 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Germany Greece Italy Remitances in perspective 6 5 4 3 2 1 Remittances % of Exp. Source EUROSTAT & UNCTAD Remittances % of GDP
CESEE-Russia: Friend or Foe Russia model of growth Natural resources Export of natural resources Important partner of EU Potential developments Technology and investment
CESEE-China: Friend or Foe China s model of growth Export lead strategies Cheap labor Lots of FDI low EU interest Large market Moving up the value chain Repeat it several times Important EU partner
Host's EU Share of total FDI Inflows 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. Russia EU-27 % of total Russia EU-15 % of total SEE EU-27 % of total SEE EU-15 % of total China EU-27 % of total China EU-15 % of total Source EUROSTAT
Trade partners EU Imports EU Exports 9 2 8 18 16 7 14 6 12 5 1 4 8 3 6 2 4 1 2 China Russia SEE China Russia SEE EU share of China & Russia Exports EU share of China & Russia imports 8. 6. 7. 5. 6. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. - - Russia imp Source EUROSTAT China imp Russia EXPTotal China EXPTotal
EU-17 EU Exp SEE vs China EU Imp. SEE vs.china Food, drinks and tobacco 12 25 Chemicals and related products, n.e.s. Machinery and transport equipment 1 1,4 Commodities and transactions not classified elsew here in the SITC Commodities and transactions not classif ied elsew here in the SITC 8 1,6 Other manufactured goods 2 Machinery and transport equipment 1,8 Chemicals and related products, n.e.s. 12 Other manufactured goods 1 Raw materials 14 Raw materials 1,2 Food, drinks and tobacco Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials 15 8 Mineral f uels, lubricants and related materials 1, 6 1 8 6 4 6 5 2 4 4 2 2 4 35 3 35 3 25 2 2 15 15 1 1 5 5 Source: EUROSTAT Food, drinks and tobacco 25 EU Exp SEE vs Russia EU Imp. SEE vs Russia Raw materials Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials Chemicals and related products, n.e.s. Other manufactured goods Commodities and transactions not classified elsew here in the SITC Food, drinks and tobacco Machinery and transport equipment 45 Raw materials 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 5 Chemicals and related products, n.e.s. Other manufactured goods 45 Machinery and transport equipment 4 Commodities and transactions not classified elsew here in the SITC 35 Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials 3 25 2 15 1
SEE Exports to China SEE Exports to Russia $4,, 1,2,, $35,, 1,,, $3,, 8,, $25,, $2,, 6,, $15,, 4,, $1,, 2,, $5,, $ Albania Serbia & Montenegro Montenegro Albania Serbia & Montenegro Montenegro Serbia Serbia Macedonia Bosnia & Herzegovina Macedonia Bosnia & Herzegovina Croatia TOTAL SEE Croatia TOTAL SEE SEE Imports from China SEE Imports from Russia 9,,,. 6,,,. 8,,,. 7,,,. 5,,,. 4,,,. 6,,,. 5,,,. 3,,,. 4,,,. 3,,,. 2,,,. 2,,,. 1,,,. 1,,,.. - Albania Serbia & Montenegro Montenegro Serbia Albania Serbia & Montenegro Montenegro Serbia Macedonia Bosnia & Herzegovina Croatia TOTAL SEE Macedonia Bosnia & Herzegovina Croatia TOTAL SEE Source EUROSTAT
CESEE-Russia-China & EU Conclusions Russia friend No competition for resources Energy supplier Potential threat China friend No competition for resources but for how long? Supplier of cheap products Potential customer for minerals, and infrastructure to support its EU expansion. Real Potential threat Resources and markets EU the most important economic and political driving force The engine of growth and trade that defines globalization for CESEE CE SEE two different speeds and two different outcomes
Trade partners II SEE Exp to China & Russia SEE Imports from China & Russia 14.45 12.4.35 1.3 8.25 6.2.15 4.1 2.5 See-Russia Source UNCTAD SEE-China. See-RuSsia SEE-China
Convergence and the Third Country Effects Global trends & Theory of International Trade Factor price equalization Labor compensation in EU will adjust declining Capital compensation in EU will adjust UP EU is facing problems already Could it be blamed on globalization? How Is there evidence?» IMF: North-South vs. West-East trade and FDI» Dorn and Hanson (211)
Global trends & Theory of International Trade Over the past 25 years, the effective global labor supply has at least doubled and by some estimates has quadrupled. This has suppressed wage growth in the developed economies and reduced the share of national income accruing to labor. So far, people without a college degree have primarily borne the consequences. As a result, globalization has widened the inequality between workers at the 9th percentile of wages and those at the 5th percentile. Ozak, P., 211 How Has The Globalization of Labor Affected the Labor Share Jaumotte & Tytell in Advanced Countries? The effect of of-shoring on labor demand: Evidence from Ekholm & Hakkala Sweden.
Global trends & Theory of International Trade Over the past three decades hundred of millions of workers have entered the global economy and over time they have generally gained in terms of human capital and in terms of value added and income. but these new workers have brought more employment competition and significant shifts in relative wages and prices, which is having profound distributional effects. Spence, M., 211
Third Country Effects Catching up vs. Convergence Past history: CESEE moving closer to EU Future: EU moving closer to CESEE? Potential effects for CESEE Supply side EU FDI moving to match low cost labor in other markets Current financial situation in the EU members make their infrastructure attractive low cost-high productivity investments vis-à-vis CESEE investments. Demand side Shrinking global markets for EU Shrinking EU markets for CESEE Catching up moving out, convergence moving in!
Once upon a time China s New Balkan Strategy, Central Europe Watch, Volume 1, No. 2, Aug. 211
Global Economy & CESEE One global market, one global factor, one global price. Deal with it but how Challenge: remain part of the global market. Reduce dependence on single traditional partners Hope that the anchor is still there Define relevance of the CESEE term Must know for the future Understand the nature and value of wealth It is all part of an endogenous system There is potential for regime change
Global Economy & CESEE The wealthiest nation is the leading anchor What will define wealth in the next 5 years Potential for growth» minerals, trade related services and infrastructure It is all part of an endogenous system China s, Russia's developments can not go unnoticed in the global economy. China s, Russia's developments can not be treated as exogenous and unrelated with developments of CESEE and/or its main partner. There is potential for regime change Literature on the negative effects of globalization is growing in size and topics. Globalization or technological change or both have constrained driving forces of the system opening gaps that might tiger error correcting mechanisms.» Structural breaks vs. temporary drifting» Where is the error correcting mechanism located in the system.
CESEE in Focus Information, Analyses and Research Central Banks of the CESEE Region Oestreicher National Bank The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies Bruegel Institute, SEESOX. European Commission Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs EUROSTAT, UNCTAD, WB, IMF, COMTRADE