Social Structure and Party Choice in Western Europe

Social Structure and Party Choice in Western Europe

This page intentionally left blank

Social Structure and Party Choice in Western Europe A Comparative Longitudinal Study Oddbjørn Knutsen Professor of Political Science, University of Oslo

Oddbjørn Knutsen 2004 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2004 978-1-4039-3320-1 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1T 4LP. Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The author has asserted his right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published 2004 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010 Companies and representatives throughout the world PALGRAVE MACMILLAN is the global academic imprint of the Palgrave Macmillan division of St. Martin s Press, LLC and of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. Macmillan is a registered trademark in the United States, United Kingdom and other countries. Palgrave is a registered trademark in the European Union and other countries. ISBN 978-1-349-51652-0 ISBN 978-0-230-50364-9 (ebook) DOI 10.1057/9780230503649 This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Knutsen, Oddbjørn, 1953 Social structure and party choice in western Europe : a comparative longitudinal study / Oddbjørn Knutsen. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Political parties Europe, Western. 2. Political sociology. 3. Comparative government. I. Title. JN94.A979K66 2004 306.2 6 094 dc22 2004049931 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 13 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04

Contents List of Figures List of Tables Preface vii xi xiii 1. Party Choice and Social Structure: Theory, the Party Choice Variable and Statistical Measures 1 1.1 Introduction: the study of the relationship between party choice and social structure 1 1.2 Review of comparative literature on social structure and party choice 4 1.3 Grouping of parties in party families 14 1.4 The party choice variable 19 1.5 Socialist/non-socialist party choice 31 1.6 Statistical measures and the analysis of changes over time 34 1.7 The plan for the book and the organisation of the empirical analyses 41 2. Religious Denomination 43 2.1 Introduction: the two faces of the religious cleavage 43 2.2 Religious denominations 46 2.3 Religious denomination and party choice 53 2.4 Socialist/non-socialist party choice 76 2.5 Conclusion 82 3. Church Religiosity and Church Attendance 86 3.1 Introduction: church religiosity in a comparative perspective 86 3.2 Church religiosity and party choice 97 3.3 Party choice and church attendance within the different religious denominations in religiously mixed countries 115 3.4 Socialist/non-socialist party choice 123 3.5 Conclusions 128 v

vi Contents 4. Urban Rural Residence 132 4.1 Introduction: the urban rural cleavage, or urban rural contrasts 132 4.2 Operationalisation of urban rural residence 134 4.3 Urban rural residence and party choice 136 4.4 Socialist/non-socialist party choice 151 4.5 Conclusion 155 5. Education 159 5.1 Introduction 159 5.2 The education variable in the surveys and changes in education levels in a comparative perspective 163 5.3 Education and party choice 167 5.4 Socialist/non-socialist party choice 187 5.5 Conclusions 194 6. Gender 198 6.1 Introduction 198 6.2 Gender and party choice 201 6.3 Socialist/non-socialist party choice 217 6.4 Conclusion 222 7. Conclusion: the Decline, Convergence and Transformation of Cleavage Politics 224 7.1 Introduction 224 7.2 Social cleavages and nominal-level party choice 225 7.3 Overlap and crosscut for the various cleavages 240 7.4 Left right division of parties 243 Bibliography 278 Index 283

List of Figures 2.1 Trends in the portion that do not consider themselves as members of a religious denomination 52 2.2 Strength of the correlation between religious denomination and party choice, 1970 97, measured by Cramer s V 54 2.3 Strength of the correlation between religious denomination and party choice, 1970 97, measured by Nagelkerke s R 2 54 2.4 Trends in the strength of the correlation between religious denomination and party choice measured by Cramer s V 59 2.5 Trends in the strength of the correlation between religious denomination and party choice measured by Nagelkerke s R 2 60 2.6A The strength of the correlation between religious denomination and socialist/non-socialist party choice measured by the eta-coefficient, 1970 97. Green parties placed in the non-socialist group 77 2.6B The strength of the correlation between religious denomination and socialist/non-socialist party choice measured by the eta-coefficient, 1970 97. Green parties placed in the socialist group 77 2.7A Trends in the correlation between religious denomination and socialist/non-socialist party choice. Eta-coefficients. Green parties placed in the non-socialist party group 78 2.7B Trends in the correlation between religious denomination and socialist/non-socialist party choice. Eta-coefficients. Green parties placed in the socialist party group 79 3.1 Development of church attendance in eight countries according to the PDI-index 93 3.2A Trends in church attendance according to religious denomination in Britain. PDI-index 95 3.2B Trends in church attendance according to religious denomination in Germany. PDI-index 95 3.2C Trends in church attendance according to religious denomination in the Netherlands. PDI-index 96 vii

viii List of Figures 3.3 The strength of the correlation between church attendance and party choice, 1970 97. Eta-coefficients 98 3.4 Trends in the strength of the correlation between church attendance and party choice measured by the eta-coefficient 102 3.5A The strength of the correlation between church attendance and socialist/non-socialist party choice according to the lor-measure, 1970 97. Green parties placed in the non-socialist group 124 3.5B The strength of the correlation between church attendance and socialist/non-socialist party choice, according to the lor-measure, 1970 97. Green parties placed in the socialist group 125 3.6A Trends in the strength of the correlation between church attendance and socialist/non-socialist party choice according to the lor-measure. Green parties in the non-socialist group 126 3.6B Trends in the strength of the correlation between church attendance and socialist/non-socialist party choice according to the lor-measure. Green parties placed in the socialist group 127 4.1 Strength of the correlation between urban/rural residence and party choice, 1970 97. Eta-coefficients 136 4.2 Trends in the strength of the correlation between urban/rural residence and party choice measured by the eta-coefficients 140 4.3A Correlation between urban rural residence and socialist/ non-socialist party choice measured by the Lor-measure, 1970 97. Greens placed in the non-socialist party group 152 4.3B Correlation between urban rural residence and socialist/ non-socialist party choice measured by the lor-measure, 1970 97. Greens placed in the socialist party group 152 4.4A Trends in the strength of the correlation between urban rural residence and socialist/non-socialist party choice according to the lor-measure. Greens in the non-socialist group 154 4.4B Trends in the strength of the correlation between socialist/non-socialist party choice and urban rural residence according to the lor-measure. Greens in the socialist group 154

List of Figures ix 5.1 Average education level in the population of the eight countries, 1973 97 164 5.2 Trends in average level of education in the eight countries 166 5.3 Average education level in different birth cohorts in the eight countries, 1973 97 167 5.4 Strength of the correlation between education and party choice measured by the eta-coefficient, 1973 97 168 5.5 Trends in the strength of the correlation between education and party choice measured by the eta-coefficient 172 5.6A Correlation (lor-scores) between education and socialist/ non-socialist party choice, 1973 97. Greens placed in the non-socialist group 188 5.6B Correlation (lor-scores) between education and socialist/ non-socialist party choice, 1973 97. Greens placed in the socialist group 188 5.7A Trends in the strength of the correlation between education and socialist/non-socialist party choice measured by the lor-scores. Greens placed in the socialist party group 190 5.7B Trends in the strength of the correlation between education and socialist/non-socialist party choice measured by the lor-scores. Greens placed in the non-socialist party group 191 6.1 Strength of the correlation between gender and party choice measured by the eta-coefficient, 1970 97 202 6.2A Trends in the strength of the correlation between gender and party choice measured by the eta-coefficient 206 6.2B Trends in the strength of the correlation between gender and party choice measured by the PDI-measure 206 6.3A Trends in the strength of the correlation between gender and socialist/non-socialist party choice according to the PDI-measure. Green parties placed in the non-socialist party group 219 6.3B Trends in the strength of the correlation between gender and socialist/non-socialist party choice according to the PDI-measure. Green parties placed in the socialist party group 219

x List of Figures 7.1A H Trends in the strength of the various social cleavages according to the eta-coefficients 227 7.2 Trends in the impact of the religious cleavages on party choice measured by Nagelkerke s R 2 235 7.3 Trends in the controlled impact of the class variables (education and social class) on party choice measured by Nagelkerke s R 2 236 7.4 Trends in the impact of the total cleavage model on party choice measured by Nagelkerke s R 2 237 7.5A H Trends in the bivariate correlations between social cleavages and socialist/non-socialist party choice. Greens placed in the socialist party group. Lor-scores 244 7.6 Trends in the impact of the religious cleavages (controlled for gender and urban rural residence) on left right party choice. Greens placed in the leftist party group 251 7.7 Trends in the impact of the class variables (controlled) on left right party choice. Greens placed in the leftist party group 252 7.8 Trends in the impact of the total cleavage model on left right party choice. Greens placed in the leftist party group 255 7.9 Trends in the impact of the total cleavage model on left right party choice. The best fitted model regarding the placement of the Greens 257

List of Tables 1.1 Comparative effect of social structure upon partisanship based on data from the 1960s 9 1.2 Grouping of political parties into nine party families 20 1.3 Support for political parties in the eight countries grouped into party families, 1970 97 24 1.4 Trends in support for the parties in the various countries 26 1.5 Trends in support for socialist, non-socialist and green parties in the various countries 33 1.6 Examples of how various statistical measures are presented and analysed 37 2.1 Trends in belongingness to various religious denominations 48 2.2 Overall differences in support for the various political parties, according to religious denomination in a comparative setting, 1970 97, with parties grouped into party families 56 2.3 Religious denomination and party choice, 1970 97 61 3.1 Frequency of church attendance in different time periods, 1970 97 89 3.2 Overall differences in support for the various political parties according to church attendance in a comparative setting, 1970 97. Parties are grouped into party families 99 3.3 Church religiosity and party choice, 1970 97 104 3.4 Church attendance and party choice according to religious denomination in religiously mixed countries, 1970 97 116 4.1 Overall differences in support for the various political parties according to urban rural residence in a comparative setting, 1970 97. Parties are grouped into party families 137 4.2 Urban rural residence and party choice, 1970 97 141 5.1 Age when finishing full-time education 1973 97 165 5.2 Overall differences in support for the various political parties according to education in a comparative setting, 1970 97. Parties are grouped into party families 169 5.3 Education and party choice, 1973 97 174 xi

xii List of Tables 6.1 Overall differences in support for the various political parties according to gender in a comparative setting, 1970 97. Parties grouped into party families 203 6.2 Gender and party choice, 1970 97 208 7.1 Overlap and change in overlap for cleavage variables 241

Preface The comparative study of electoral behaviour is a difficult task because electoral surveys are designed in different ways in different countries. This makes comparative research extremely difficult within the field. Even to do longitudinal research within one country is not straightforward because question formulas change or questions are dropped or added from one election to another, and variables tapping the same question are assigned different variable names in various datafiles. For one researcher to do comparative and longitudinal research is therefore a difficult and industrious task. This work is based on a genuine cumulative database of Eurobarometers. It is difficult in explain in words how much easier it is to work on such a datafile compared with the alternatives. It also creates potential for doing analyses which otherwise would not be possible. I would like to thank Hermann Schmitt at the Mannheimer Zentrum für Europäische Sozialforschung for giving me the opportunity to use the integrated Eurobarometer datafile on which this work is based. I am also grateful to the Mannheimer Zentrum für Europäische Sozialforschung, which hosted me as a guest professor while I was doing most of the research on which this work is based. Oddbjørn Knutsen May 2004 xiii