Afghanistan Status quo or New Power Structure By Dr. Hussain Yasa
Disclaimer
Present Situation 1. Almost a complete security Collapse 2. State Building Process Failed 3. Record Breaking Corruption 4. Ill Governance 5. Record Breaking Opium Production 6. Corrupt and inefficient Judicial System 7. Legislative body not effective 8. Electoral System worse in the Region 9. Increasing Influence of Mafia in official matters 10. Growing distrust among the various ethnic groups 11. Failed Development Strategy 12. Increasing Distrust with immediate neighboring countries etc.
UNAMA (UN Assistance Mission to Afghanistan) Mission to Afghanistan NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) Mission to Afghanistan Good Governance Dismantling Al Qaeda Restoration of Peace Preventing Taliban s Stability return back into power Sustainable Livelihood Counter Insurgency Basic Social Services Helping Afghans to Human Rights Gender Equality Environment Mine Action Counter Narcotics Poverty Alleviation restore a peaceful life by providing security Training and equipping ANSF Promoting Stability
Corrupt tperception Index (CPI) The annual report of Transparency International Source: Transparency International, University of Passau to produce the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI). The CPI 2005 draws on 16 different polls and surveys from 10 independent institutions. The institutions who provided data for the CPI 2005 are: Columbia University, Economist Intelligence Unit, Freedom House, Information International, International Institute for Management Development, Merchant International Group, Political and Economic Risk Consultancy, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, World Economic Forum and World Markets Research Centre. Early CPIs used public opinion surveys, but now only "experts" are used. TI requires at least three sources to be available in order to rank a country in the CPI.
Index of the Failed States A failed state is characterized by social, political, and economic failure or failed to fulfill some of the basic conditions and responsibilities of a sovereign government. Criteria for a failed state Loss of physical control of its territory, or of the monopoly on the legitimate use of physical force therein, Erosion of legitimate authority to make collective decisions, Inability to provide reasonable public services, and Inability to interact with other states as a full member of the international community. (Fund for Peace)
A):- The Root Causes of Failure The Failure is linked both to political factors and flawed security strategy. Principal factors: 1. Afghanistan is a complex society enjoying ethnic, linguistic, i religious i and geographic diversity. it Our many communities have all played their role in the two hundred and sixty years of the state's history. The political and administrative system of present Afghanistan does not adequately address the requirements of diversity. 2. The lure of a strong centralized approach has been one of the principal causes of alienation of communities who feel they have little stake in the system. There is a growing sense of alienation born of the lack of a sense of participation in the management of their day to day affairs. 3. The de-politicization of political institutions through SNTV (Single Non-Transferable Voting System) and undermining of political parties have weakened one of the main stakeholders in the process of state-building.
Contributory factors: 1. International community as well its inexperienced domestic partner prematurely announced the defeat of Taliban just after the collapse of their government in Kabul and the major cities of Afghanistan. 2. The slow pace of building up the capacity of Afghan security forces meant they were not ready for the resurgent Taliban and soon lost control of the outlying areas. 3. The current Afghan administration has shown a lack of will in combating its own enemies. 4. Lack of coordination among Afghan security forces. 5. Poor coordination between Afghan security forces and NATO forces engaged in combat missions. 6. Lack of common vision among the NATO partners. 7. Sluggish economic development and failure of the government to create more job opportunities for jobless Afghan youths. 8. Growing corruption especially in the security forces has provided opportunities for insurgent to infiltrate the security institutions. 9. Taliban access to sources of finance, including donations from Jihadi networks in Pakistan and the Middle East and poppy cultivation. 10. The way in which the government has opportunistically and randomly made overtures to the Taliban, instead of adopting a clear strategy for reconciliation. This has boosted Taliban morale.
Historical Factors A:- Three main Factors 1. Continuous Struggle for Ethnic Domination 2. Manipulation of Religion by both Governments and oppositions 3. Foreign Interferences
B):- Political Regimes of the Past 1. Absolute Monarchy 2. Benign Monarchy 3. Constitutional monarchy 4. Republican 5. Totalitarian 6. Anarchical 7. Democratic
Common in All these Model of Regimes Dysfunctional, Sovereignty-based, Person-centered, Kabul-centered with Kin-based political culture Paternalistic politics Nepotism Cronyism (Commoditization of loyalties) Political leconomy of corruption and dependency on foreign subsidies Tribalization of the Institutions Ab f S i l J ti d Absence of Social Justice and discrimination
Afghanistan is a Diverse Country Afghan Constitution Ch. 1, Art. 4 National sovereignty in Afghanistan belongs to the nation that exercises it directly or through its representatives. The nation of Afghanistan consists of all individuals id who are the citizen i of Afghanistan. The nation of Afghanistan is comprised of the following ethnic groups: Pashtun, Tajik, Hazara, Uzbek, Turkmen, Baloch, Pashai, Nuristani, Aymaq, Arab, Qirghiz, Qizilbash, Gujur, Brahwui and others. The word Afghan applies to every citizen of Afghanistan. No member of the nation can be deprived of his citizenship of Afghanistan. Affairs related to the citizenship and asylum are regulated by law. Ethnic Groups Major Ethnic Groups Other Minorities Pashtun Aymaq Tajik Pashai Hazara Nuristani Turkic Speaking Baloch Communities Qizilbash (Uzbek and Turkmen) Arab Gujur Brahwui
Universal Criteria for an Ideal Society Citizens of a country should share a common bond which unites them with reciprocal rights and responsibilities while respecting their diversity. Respect for the freedom and dignity of the individual, freedom of religion, Commitment to the rule of law, Democracy, Equality of men and women and a spirit of social justice that embraces mutual respect and tolerance Equality of opportunity for individuals, regardless of their race, religion or ethnic background
Criteria for New Power Structure in Afghanistan To change Systematically and develop new and more appropriate rules of governance in Afghanistan which should be based from the bottom up and run by empowered Afghan citizens. A system which h would change the status t of Afghans, from subjects to empowered citizens and rulers to pubic servants, therefore building trust between the government and its citizens. A governance system with effective mechanism To provide alternatives to the current dysfunctional system To transform the problematic state-society relations and improve socioeconomic conditions for the poor De-politicizing ethnic groups Discouraging Dscouag g Nepotism, Nepots Co Cronyism ys and Corruption upto Creating a viable civil service Viable economy, appropriate p for income-generating g economic development projects, especially in agriculture to address illicit poppy economy. A system should be based on merit instead of ethno-linguistic, religious, regional or tribal identity.
What Next? To Preserve Afghanistan As a Viable and Sustainable Country 1. Status Quo?...Impossible 2. Disintegration?...Unlikely lk l or undesirable 3. New Power Structure?????? t
A Local, Self-Governing System To liberate the peoples of Afghanistan from the legacies of old, centralized and Tribalized power structures with a complete review of Unitary System of Administration to more viable and natural Decentralized Administrative i i Units and Political System to Parliamentary Democracy or at least Semi Presidential System
A probable Model for new Administrative System
Bonn Agreement AGREEMENT ON PROVISIONAL ARRANGEMENTS IN AFGHANISTAN (December 05, 2001) ANNEX III REQUEST TO THE UNITED NATIONS BY THE PARTICIPANTS AT THE UN TALKS ON AFGHANISTAN The participants in the UN Talks on Afghanistan hereby 1. Request that the United Nations and the international community take the necessary measures to guarantee the national sovereignty, territorial integrity and unity of Afghanistan as well as the Non-interference by foreign countries in Afghanistan's internal affairs; 2. Request the United Nations to conduct as soon as possible I):- A registration of voters in advance of the general elections that will be held upon the adoption of the new constitution by the constitutional Loya Jirga and II):- A census of the population of Afghanistan