Yemen Edison Novice Conference I. Background Though it is difficult to pinpoint the exact beginning of tensions in Yemen, the current conflict originated around 2004 with rebel activity. The conflict in Yemen is centered around two groups, forces loyal to current president Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi and a Shia Muslim movement from the Zaydi Shias known as the Houthis. In mid 2004, Zaydi Shia rebel leader Hussein al-houthi lead his forces in a revolt in the north against the current Yemen government lead by former president Ali Abdullah Saleh. Although Hussein al-houthi was killed in September, 2004, the rebel activity continued in the north. Between 2004 and 2010 rebel activity continued and the Houthis attempted to overthrow the government six times. In addition to fighting off the Houthi rebel forces, Saleh was also accused by the international community of corruption in his regime. In 2011 as the Arab Spring spread to Yemen, large protests were ignited in response to rising poverty levels, government corruption, and lack of political freedom. Saleh initially tried to ignore both the internal and international pressures to step down from his 22-year long regime, yet eventually signed a deal agreeing to relinquish his power in return from immunity from prosecution in late 2011. When Saleh stepped down from his longtime position of leader of Yemen he handed over the government to Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi, his deputy. The transition was designed to bring political security to Yemen, but instead plunged the country even deeper into conflict. In transitioning to his new role Hadi did a poor job of dealing with terrorist attacks from al Qaeda, a separatist movement forming in the South, and the continued loyalty of select military members to Saleh. In the months following the political transition unemployment rates rose to 17.5% and over 6.8 million Yemenis were food insecure due to the dramatic rise of food prices (a 46% increase from January, 2011 to November, 2011). The Houthis were originally in support of the political transition, but after seeing the failure of the plan they turned on the new president Hadi. Capitalizing on this new political insecurity, the Houthis took complete control of the northern Saada province and surrounding areas, significantly increasing their power. During this time the Houthis gained the support of many Yemeni citizens as they too were disappointed in the failure of the power transfer and
Hadi s presidency. This support from Yemeni citizens allow the Houthis enough power to enter the capital, Sana a, in September of 2014. The rebels placed Hadi under house arrest and instating their own government. In February 2015 Hadi escaped to the port city of Aden in the South, where government control was stronger and the rebels appointed a presidential council in place of Hadi. Following the takeover of the capital, the Houthis and forces still loyal to Saleh attempted to take control of the entire country, forcing Hadi to flee abroad. The surrounding Sunni Arab states of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Qatar, Sudan, and the UAE formed a coalition to combat the Houthis, who received heavy support from the Shia majority state Iran. Saudi Arabia is deeply invested in this issue as Yemen is an important front for them in their conflict with Iran for regional dominance. A Houthi controlled Yemen backed by Iran would severely threaten Saudi Arabia s southern border. Saudi Arabia s coalition has received logistical support from the United Kingdom, the United States, and France. The Houthis and Iran not only share religious ties in being Shia majority groups, but also share geopolitical goals such as challenging United States and Saudi Arabian dominance and power in the region. On March 2015 Saudi Arabia began an air campaign aimed at restoring Hadi s power in Yemen. Operation Decisive Storm officially began on March 26th with Saudi Arabian bombing that targeted Houthi controlled areas and lasted until April 12th, 2015, resulting in both Houthi and civilian casualties. The Syrian denied many of the airstrikes committed so there is not an exact number on the number of planes used in the offensive. It is estimated that around 60 civilians died and 200 were injured due to the Saudi Arabian airstrikes. In response to the attack the Houthis shelled a number of civilian areas, such as Jizan and Najran, in an attempt to confuse the opposing frontline forces. The Houthis attempted to take the southern port city of Aden but were unsuccessful after a four month battle against Sunni forces and those loyal to former president Hadi. In August of 2015 coalition ground forces landed in the south of Yemen and were overall successful in driving rebel forces out of the South and reclaiming parts of Yemen from the Houthi forces. That being said, the Houthis have managed to maintain both Sana a and the southern city of Taiz. In Taiz the Houthis have been able to fire mortars and missiles from Taiz into Saudi Arabia. During this period of conflict there were 1,858 casualties within the
Saudi Arabian coalition forces and an unknown number of Houthi casualties. The amount of civilian deaths stemming from the Saudi Arabian offensive is unknown. During the conflict Iran has continued its support of the Houthis by providing military advisors and weapons to the rebels. Iran has denied all involvement in the issue. Throughout Yemen the Houthis have continued attacks, even going so far as to target and capture civilians. The Houthis have also limited the freedom of speech in Yemen by silencing media sources that oppose them and forcing news and television stations to close. The forces in the Middle East are so invested in this issue because whoever is victorious in controlling Yemen will have significantly more power in the region. Fighting in Yemen increases the instability of the region and threatens Western power s positions and control in the Middle East. Another incentive for outside forces to gain control of Yemen is the Bab el Mandeb passage, a major shipping lane. The Bab el Mandeb transports 4.7 barrels of oil daily and is threatened by the conflict due to its location linking the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Closure of the Bab el Mandeb would divert oil shipment to the East-West Pipeline, however only an estimated 76% of the oil transported through the Bab el Mandeb would be able to be transported through the East-West Pipeline. The remaining.8 bbd of oil would be transported around the Cape of Good Hope, significantly increasing the time and cost of shipments. Additionally European shipments to Asia would be forced to be diverted around the Cape of Good Hope. If the Bab el Mandeb was closed there would be an estimated 35% inflation of the global price of oil. Additionally the closure of the Bab el Mandeb for one year would cause over a 1% drop in the GDP of Estonia, Greece, Hungary, the Netherlands, Slovakia, and Slovenia. Following a 2017 bombing of Riyadh the Saudi Arabian coalition tightened its blockade on Yemen. The United Nations (UN) condemned this action saying that it could plunge Yemen deeper into famine and augment the humanitarian issues already faced in the region. The fighting in Yemen has escalated from a military conflict into a severe humanitarian issue as civilians are being targeted by both sides. As of 2015 more than 9,245 people have been killed and 52,800 have been injured. Of those killed and injured 5,558 deaths and 9,065 injuries were sustained by civilians. Most of the casualties have been the result of Saudi airstrikes on the region but as previously mentioned the Houthis have been responsible for civilian deaths and
injuries as well. The restrictions on imports from both sides have led 17.8 million to face food insecurity and 8.4 million to be on the brink of starvation. Acute malnutrition threatens the lives of over 400,000 children as well. 75% percent of the population of Yemen is considered to be in the need of humanitarian assistance, including 11.3 million Yemenis requiring immediate assistance in order to survive as of December, 2017. The Yemenis are unable to receive the medical help that they so desperately need due to the destruction of infrastructure caused by the fighting. Only half of the country s medical facilities are currently functioning, which is around 3,500 facilities. The Yemen conflict has resulted in the world s largest cholera outbreak, leading medics struggling to provide healthcare for the civilians of Yemen. Since April 2017 there have been over 1 million suspected cases and 2,248 confirmed deaths due to the outbreak. In addition to the humanitarian crisis inside of Yemen, there is also a growing refugee crisis resulting from the fighting. As of March 2018 there are 2,014,046 confirmed internally displaced persons (IDPs), 89% of which have been displaced for over a year. There are also 280,692 refugees and asylum seekers stemming from Yemen. Contributing to the dire situation in Yemen is the activity of terrorist and extremist groups that have capitalized on the ongoing fighting between the Saudi Arabian coalition and Houthi forces. ISIL and AQAP (Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) are the two most active terrorist groups in the region. In 2011, prior to the official beginning of the civil war, AQAP established an emirate in Yemen and in 2015 stormed the coastal city of al Mukalla. There have also been many notable attacks by the two extremist groups in Aden, where much of the fighting has occurred. AQAP and ISIL have not sided with either party, instead using the confusion and chaos in the region to advance their own personal agendas. II. UN Involvement The United Nations has continually worked to find a peaceful resolution to this conflict, but has been unsuccessful in ending the fighting in Yemen so far. The UN has taken a diplomatic route in attempting to control the Yemen conflict, strongly condemning civilian airstrikes and military action in the region. Prior to the beginning of the civil war the UN appointed a Special Advisor on Yemen. The appointing of this advisor coincided with the beginning of direct military action in Yemen. The advisor as well as other members of the
international community concluded that the Saleh regime was no longer viable in Yemen and a new government was needed. In October 2011 the UN Security Council adopted resolution 2014, which called for the need of a peaceful political transition in Yemen, while still drawing awareness to the growing threat of AQAP and ISIL activity in the region. The Special Advisor on Yemen worked in conjunction with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and were active in the Gulf Cooperation Council Agreement, which was set to implement a political transition in Yemen with the involvement of the UN Security Council; this agreement justified direct UN action in Yemen. The transition was set to last two years and begin with the election of Hadi as the president of Yemen, but ultimately failed. In an attempt to end military action in Yemen the United Nations Security Council adopted resolution 2216 (2015), calling for a ceasefire from all parties. Resolution 2216 also demanded that the Houthis release the capital Sana a from their control and that all parties attend a conference in the Saudi capital Riyadh to support UN action and establish a peaceful government in Yemen. Resolution 2216 stated the UN s support of Hadi s government and condemned the Houthi s actions in Yemen. The resolution was a failure in the fact that it ignored the fact that Hadi has had limited involvement in Yemen over the course of the civil war and no longer holds the political power that he once did in the country. In order to end Saudi airstrikes on Yemen the United Nations called for the cease of military trade with Saudi Arabia and the investigation and recording of any airstrikes that occurred in the region. This solution was partially successful, but Saudi Arabia has prevented the UN from conducting a full internal investigation. In December 2015 UN officials and Yemeni representatives met in Switzerland to discuss the growing conflict and were successful on agreeing on a plan to deliver humanitarian aid to the citizens of Taiz. One of the most successful actions that the United Nations has taken in resolving this issue is the formation of the Yemen Panel of Experts. The panel was established following Security Council resolution 2140 (2014). The Panel of Experts was originally comprised of four experts, but was expanded to five experts with resolution 2216. The Panel of Experts is responsible for many of the resolutions passed on the issue and give reports on the evolving
situation in Yemen. The Panel of Experts has visited 16 countries involved in the conflict and have met with Hadi to engage in discussion as well. The UN passed Security Council resolution 2342 in February 2017. This resolution called for the Houthis to cease all military action in the area and drop all arms. The arms embargo previously placed on the Houthis and any forces still loyal to the former president Saleh was renewed as a result of this resolution. The Houthis have not yet complied with the UN s demands and fighting in the region has continued. Another area that the United Nations has focused on is violence caused by terrorist activity from AQAP and ISIL. Security Council resolutions 2204, 2214, and 2266 placed sanctions on all nations that did not immediately cut ties with AQAP or ISIL. The UN has also directly stated its growing concern about the terrorist activity in the region and has urged for a cease in all terrorist activity. Due to the fact that the UN s efforts in ending the conflict in Yemen have proven unsuccessful so far, the United Nations has focused their efforts on humanitarian assistance, seeing as Yemen is facing what the UN has called the largest man-made humanitarian crisis in recent history. The United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) has focused their efforts on providing immediate humanitarian aid for the civilians of Yemen. Unfortunately due to the growing crisis, the UNHCR is in need of 198.7 million USD to adequately help all refugees, asylum seekers, and IDPs that are at risk due to the conflict. In February 2017 the UN launched an appeal to prevent famine in Yemen. The UN Office For the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs hosted a conference in Geneva with the hopes of raising 2.1 billion USD in order to combat famine in Yemen, but was only successful in raising 15% of the proposed amount. The UN Office For the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs stated that this was not enough to adequately aid all those facing starvation as a result of the ongoing military conflict in Yemen. The UN has also worked to increase awareness about the humanitarian crisis in Yemen through reports published by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the UNHCR. WHO is working in over 20 hospitals in Yemen to provide humanitarian aid to those harmed by the
conflict but their work has been affected by the fuel shortages caused by blockades set up by the Saudi Arabian coalition and Houthi forces. III. Questions to Consider 1. How will the conflict Yemen disrupt the power balance in the Middle East? How does this affect global relations? 2. Is it more important for the United Nations to focus on the humanitarian crisis in Yemen or on the political conflict? 3. How can the United Nations mitigate the impact that outside powers have on the political conflict in Yemen? 4. What is the impact that the Yemen conflict has had or will have in the future on the global economy? 5. What action can the United Nations take to peacefully resolve the conflict besides the peace talks that they have already attempted?
Works Cited 1. About OCHA Yemen. OCHA, www.unocha.org/yemen/about-ocha-yemen. 2. Michael. Warning Iran, U.S. Sends Two More Ships to Yemen. The New York Times, The New York Times, 21 Apr. 2015, www.nytimes.com/2015/04/21/world/middleeast/warning-iran-us-sends-two-more-shipsto-yemen.html. 3. Political Insecurity Drives Yemenis into Displacement and Hunger. ReliefWeb, reliefweb.int/report/yemen/political-insecurity-drives-yemenis-displacement-and-hunger. 4. THE MEANS AND METHODS OF ATTACK. Human Rights Watch, www.hrw.org/legacy/reports/1991/gulfwar/chap3.htm. 5. The Yemen Crisis and the Bab El-Mandeb Maritime Chokepoint SUSRIS. SUSRIS. Web. 14 Apr. 2016. 6. Saul, Jonathan. Exclusive: Iran Steps up Support for Houthis in Yemen's War - Sources. Reuters, Thomson Reuters, 22 Mar. 2017, www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-iran-houthis-iduskbn16s22r. 7. UN Documents for Yemen. Yemen Chronology of Events : Security Council Report, www.securitycouncilreport.org/un-documents/yemen/. 8. United Nations in Yemen. United Nations, United Nations, ye.one.un.org/content/unct/yemen/en/home.html. 9. Who Are the Houthi Rebels Accused of Attacking Navy Ships near Yemen? NBCNews.com, NBCUniversal News Group, www.nbcnews.com/news/world/who-are-yemen-s-houthis-what-do-they-want-n665636. 10. Why Can't the United Nations Bring Peace to Yemen? OpenDemocracy, 6 Jan. 2018, www.opendemocracy.net/north-africa-west-asia/helen-lackner/why-can-t-united-nationsbring-peace-to-yemen.
11. Work and Mandate Security Council Subsidiary Organs. United Nations, United Nations, www.un.org/sc/suborg/en/sanctions/2140/panel-of-experts/work-and-mandate. 12. Yemen (2004 - First Combat Deaths). Research and Action for Peace, ploughshares.ca/pl_armedconflict/yemen-2004-first-combat-deaths/#deaths. 13. Yemen Crisis 'Getting Worse by the Hour' UN Humanitarian Official UN News. United Nations, United Nations, news.un.org/en/story/2015/04/495532-yemen-crisis-getting-worse-hour-un-humanitarianofficial#.vwvqoturlnb. 14. Yemen Crisis: Who Is Fighting Whom? BBC News, BBC, 30 Jan. 2018, www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423. 15. Yemen Situation Report. Critical Threats, www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/yemen-situation-report/2018-yemen-crisis-situation-reportmarch-1. 16. Yemen: UN Envoy Calls on Security Council to Support Efforts towards Cessation of Hostilities. UN News Center. UN, 2016. Web. 14 Apr. 2016. 17. Yemen Unemployment Rate 1991-2018 Data Chart Calendar Forecast. Haiti Exports 2008-2018 Data Chart Calendar Forecast News, tradingeconomics.com/yemen/unemployment-rate. 18. Yemen UNHCR Update, March 2018. ReliefWeb, reliefweb.int/report/yemen/yemen-unhcr-update-march-2018.