Patterns of Conflict and Cooperation in Northern Europe Prof. Dr. Mindaugas Jurkynas Vytautas Magnus University (Kaunas)
Plan Small states What can a small state do in the EU? The role of regions in the EU Conflict and Cooperation in Northern Europe
What is a small state?
Conceptions of Small States Treaty of Vienna 19th Century (1815-1915) Small states are all that are not considered 6 Great Powers (Germany, Great Britain, France, Russia, Austria-Hungary, Italy) 20 th Century Number of states kept rising Small states were all those states that were not great powers and that were not consistently insisting on being referred to as middle powers (Australia, Canada)
Traditionalist view of small states 1) are not able to preserve their own autonomy in the face of force; 2) have a narrow range of action; 3) have little to say about which games are being played and how; 4) have only a small stake in the system and are unable to act for its sake.
What makes a small state? The problems looming for each nation are determined by objective factors of territory size, geography, climate and habitat; but also by political features of the neighbourhood and larger region, the level and direction of economic development, and human and societal factor, etc.
Small states are defined in relational terms Being a small state is tied to a specific historical and geographic context Small state is not defined only by indicators such as its absolute population size or size of GDP. a small state is defined by being the weak part in an asymmetric relationship. small states in Europe have small scale of material and human resources, and thus limited options in both military and non-military security provision.
What do small states usually do? How the small state can best hope to protect its territorial integrity, political sovereignty, national identity and freedom of action? 3 dimensions: military/strategic, economic, and nonmilitary Two broad strategic options: a defensive posture focused on autonomy and avoiding trouble, as neutrality; or a proactive posture: cooperative schemes (national and international partnerships, organizations, regional and global activism) small state is prima facie more prone than the average to seek solutions through external engagement and partnership
Determining the Size of a State Traditional Criteria: Population Territory GDP Military Capacity New Criteria Fixed Size Sovereignty Size Political Size Economic Size Perceptual Size Preference Size
New Criteria Fixed Size Population Size Territorial Size Sovereignty Size Domestic control and legitimacy Domestic state structure Foreign perception of state sovereignty
What can a small state to in the EU? Objective and Subjective Factors Objective: Institutional structure, norms and rules, state power (population, size, vallue added, geopolitical location) Subjective: Country s political, social and economic practices, persuasive ideas, valid demands, reliability, consistency Small states can upload if they employ subjective criteria and find COALITION PARTNERS IN THEIR REGION AND BEYOND
Cleavages in the EU North-South Big-Small Atlantic-Continental Free Trade-Protectionism Givers-Takers
How can one study regions? Inside -out Outside in Region-building
Inside-out approaches highlight possibilities for cooperation. Outside-in approaches are often predicated on the continuous possibilities for conflict within the region. Inside-out theories tend to postulate a plethora of actors on the societal level. Outside-in theories tend to concentrate on the levels of the system and of states
Region building Rather than seeing discourse as reflective of some external political reality, these authors see it as politically constitutive. Region are defined in term of speech acts they are talked and written into existence.
Define Baltic
What is Baltic? The location of the Baltic is in fact more a question of awareness than of geography, but that awareness has to be guided and educated. [O]ld legacies continue to dog the states formerly under Soviet domination, whilst new opportunities may undermine the fragile sense of regional community. There is much to be done. Defining the Baltic at the beginning of a new millennium is thus an exciting challenge for all who study the region (Kirby 1999).
Baltics in the 21 st century No more Eastern Europe Wanna be Northern Europe opinion polls, branding UK-Nordic (Baltic) dimension (EPINE)
Vectors for Cooperation The place in the Occident as broad security State functions: Security, welfare and culture Key current topics: Energy security, Eastern neighbourhood, EU-NATO Poland as a necessity: energy security, Eastern partnership, post-communist legacies (problems - nationalism) Go North new pop (after Ireland)?
Frequencies of regional references in the neutral context before and after 2004 70 60 50 Lithuania Lativa Estonia 51 56 58 40 30 20 10 20 7 17 13 9 10 16 20 23 0 CEE Baltic se a Norde n Baltic 60 50 Lithuania Latvia Es tonia 56 50 54 40 30 20 10 18 12 4 11 25 22 15 13 20 0 CEE Baltic Sea Norden Baltic
State self-affiliation to the region before and after 2004 EU/NATO enlargement Lithuania Latvia Estonia Central (and Eastern) Europe Medium Low Low Baltic sea Medium Low Medium Medium Norden High High Medium High Baltic High High High
Compatibility of regional images before and after 2004 EU/NATO enlargement Central (and Eastern) Europe Compatibility Medium Low Common Denominator Soviet Past, Freedom, NATO/EU membership Soviet Past Modern/Postmo dern Modern Baltic sea High Medium Soft Security Modern/ Postmodern Norden Medium Political and economic Partnership Place in Northern Europe Baltic High Soviet Past, Freedom, NATO/EU membership Security Problems, Political Partnership, Baltic Tigers Modern Modern
What is Nordic?
Summing Up Nordic: Common denominator: Nordic is defined as a welfare system and a role of the state in public policy. Baltic: The Baltic region is seen as a different geographical region not; the Baltic states are not mentioned very often, mostly in relation to the Baltic Sea Region.
BDP per Capita 1997 2000 2004 2008 2009 2010 2012 Relative GDP per capita EU-27 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 EU-15 115 115 113 111 110 110 100 Estonia 42 45 57 68 64 64 71 Latvia 35 37 46 56 52 51 64 Lithuania 39 39 50 61 55 57 72 Denmark 133 132 126 120 121 127 126 Finland 110 117 116 117 113 115 115 Sweden 124 128 126 122 118 123 126 Norway 147 165 165 192 176 181 195 Iceland 137 132 131 124 118 111 115
PPS 15 Rapid fall in GDP 10 5 0-5 -10 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Lithuania Latvia Estonia Denmark Finland Sweden EU-27-15 -20 Find us @ www.tspmi.lt facebook.com/tspmi
25 Growth of unemployment 20 15 10 5 Lithuania Latvia Estonia Denmark Finland Sweden EU-27 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
18 Decrease of inflation 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Lithuania Latvia Estonia Denmark Finland Sweden EU-27 0-2 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-4
15 10 Rapid restoration of current account balance (% of GDP) 5 0-5 -10-15 -20 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Lithuania Latvia Estonia Denmark Finland Sweden EU-27-25
90... and growing state debts, % of GDP 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Lithuania Latvia Estonia Denmark Finland Sweden EU-27 10 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Rank 0 Heritage Foundation Economic Freedom Index 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 10 20 30 40 Lithuania Latvia Estonia Denmark Sweden Finland 50 60
Two Groups: Baltics are New Nordic?
Similarities and Differences Similarities: UN distribution, historical links, Nordic Assistance, NIB, no historical complexes, NB6(8), Nordpool, small, open economies, norm entrepreneurs, Nordic battle group, party systems, sound public finances, political economic partnership, FDIs. Differences (similar to Poland?): Economic capabilities, Welfare state, Human and minority rights, Underdeveloped West, antiimigration, consensus democracies, euroscepticism, gender equality, image of Russia
Russia and the Baltic States Russia is essential for the region Russia does not focus on BSR cooperation Desecuritisation is not a Fact yet National identity in Russia focus on the USSR Clash of identities and principles in the BSR
Unfriendly countries to Russia, % 2005 2006 2006 2006 2010 2011 2012 2013 US 23 37 35 45 26 33 35 38 Georgia 38 44 46 62 57 50 41 33 Latvia 46 46 36 35 36 35 26 21 Lithuania 42 42 32 35 35 34 25 17 Estonia 32 28 60 30 28 30 23 16 Ukraine 13 27 23 41 13 20 15 11
Fears and Concerns: Russian embargoes of energy and food supplies for many countries (Lithuania, Estonia, Ukraine, Georgia, Belarus, Poland, Moldova, Georgia, Czech Republic), cyber attacks, war with Georgia, unresolved homicide abroad (UK) and at home, control of media and elections, violation of human rights, destruction of political opponents and business circles, spread of propaganda and revision of history, Putin 2.0, Pussy Riot. Magnitsky.
Emergence of the BSR No BSR during Cold War Role of CBSS
EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region BSS focuses on soft security No more funding, institutions or legislation Positive aspects: highest political attention in the EU, Need for dialogue with Russia after 8/8/8 and inclusion of Belarus Old stories: BSS like CBSS focuses on low politics, similarity to ND Liberal approach with the stress on cooperation in low politics and postmodern daydreaming about a wider security community of tomorrow in BSR (EU s logic)
BSS Challenges No BSR identity yet Economic crisis and resource drain Bilateralism Tensions with Southern Dimension and Mediterranean (enlargements, ND, 600 mio euro for Eastern Partnership) Modern and postmodern cleavage Russia s preference on ND than BSS Competitive synergy: overlapping agendas and absence of division of cooperative functions Competition between CBSS and ND