Responding to a Resurgent Russia
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Vinod K. Aggarwal Editors Kristi Govella Responding to a Resurgent Russia Russian Policy and Responses from the European Union and the United States
Editors Vinod K. Aggarwal Department of Political Science Haas School of Business University of California Berkeley, CA, USA Berkeley APEC Study Center University of California Berkeley, CA, USA vinod@berkeley.edu Kristi Govella Department of Political Science University of California Berkeley, CA, USA kgovella@berkeley.edu ISBN 978-1-4419-6666-7 e-isbn 978-1-4419-6667-4 DOI 10.1007/978-1-4419-6667-4 Springer New York Dordrecht Heidelberg London Library of Congress Control Number: 2011941361 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2012 All rights reserved. This work may not be translated or copied in whole or in part without the written permission of the publisher (Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, 233 Spring Street, New York, NY 10013, USA), except for brief excerpts in connection with reviews or scholarly analysis. Use in connection with any form of information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed is forbidden. The use in this publication of trade names, trademarks, service marks, and similar terms, even if they are not identified as such, is not to be taken as an expression of opinion as to whether or not they are subject to proprietary rights. Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)
Preface Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States emerged from the Cold War as the dominant power on the globe. Since that time, however, other countries have come to challenge American supremacy. The so-called BRIC countries of Brazil, Russia, India, and China are often seen as the rising powers that will alter the landscape of the global political and economic system. This book focuses on one key country, Russia, in the context of a larger project on the transformation of the international system. After the end of the Cold War, Russia emerged as the successor state of the former Soviet Union. Yet while it continued to possess a nuclear arsenal that put it on par with the United States, Russia experienced dramatic domestic political change, social turmoil, and economic decline. With increasing inflation, foreign debt, and budget deficits, compounded by lack of law and order, loss of central control over the periphery, conflicts in Chechnya, rampant corruption, chronic political instability, and a severe financial crisis, Russia s future looked extremely perilous. Yet over the last decade, it has reemerged as a key international player, driven by a recentralization of power under former president Vladimir Putin, the current prime minister of Russia. Russia s resurgence has raised concerns, particularly in the United States and the European Union, and created uncertainty about its integration with the Western world. The terms of Russian relations with both the US and the EU have shifted fundamentally since the end of the Cold War, and it is time for scholars to begin looking for new ways to analyze relations between these key actors. This book focuses on two central questions. First, what factors explain and characterize Russia s resurgence over the past decade? Second, how is the relationship between the European Union and the United States vis-à-vis this rising power likely to evolve? The answers to these questions have important implications for the viability of the current international economic and political order. This project benefited from generous grants from the EU Center of Excellence and the Institute of Slavic, East European and Eurasian Studies at the University of California, Berkeley, CA. The funds we received allowed us to host a conference with all of the authors of the chapters in this volume, and most importantly, to get v
vi Preface feedback from discussants and observers that helped the writers to revise their papers for this volume. Theocharis Grigoriadis played a crucial role in the early planning stages of this conference. At our meeting in Berkeley in April 2009, the participants benefited from the insightful comments of Sener Akturk, Sarah Garding, Danielle Lussier, Bart Watson, Theocharis Grigoriadis, Gail Lapidus, and Ned Walker. This meeting provided opportunities for interaction that also helped us to build enduring ties among scholars that geographically span more than half the globe. The Berkeley APEC Study Center staff proved crucial support throughout the project and book manuscript preparation. In particular, a number of undergraduates who work at the center as part of the Berkeley Undergraduate Research Apprenticeship Program provide invaluable assistance at all stages. We are particularly grateful to Kathy Bowen, Andrew Boyce, Michelle Chang, Daniel Chen, Cindy Cheng, Lauren Dansey, Ren Yi Hooi, Cindy Hwang, Do-Hee Jeong, Cindy Li, Robert Nelson, Alexander Newhall, Michelle Tan, Viola Tang, and Peter Volberding for their work. In preparing the final manuscript, Alexsia Chan and Sara Newland, Project Directors at BASC, helped to shepherd the work along, and we are grateful to them for their help. We are also indebted to the Ron and Stacy Gutfleish Foundation for their generous annual contributions to support BASC s work. Finally, we would like to thank Jon Gurstelle of Springer Verlag for his help and support. We, of course, remain responsible for any errors or omissions. University of California Berkeley, CA, USA Vinod K. Aggarwal Kristi Govella
Contents 1 Introduction: The Fall of the Soviet Union and the Resurgence of Russia... 1 Kristi Govella and Vinod K. Aggarwal 2 How Russia Sees the World... 15 Mikhail Rykhtik 3 US Russia Relations in the Post-Western World... 35 Andrei P. Tsygankov 4 Russia s Integration into the Global Economy: The Route to Geopolitical Harmony... 51 Christopher Granville 5 Nuclear Power Contracts and International Cooperation: Analyzing Innovation and Social Distribution in Russian Foreign Policy... 69 Theocharis N. Grigoriadis 6 Reformatting the EU Russia Pseudo-Partnership: What a Difference a Crisis Makes... 85 Pavel K. Baev 7 Meeting the Russian Challenge in the Obama Era... 101 Robert Legvold 8 Russian Foreign Policy: Challenging the Western Liberal International Order?... 125 Kristi Govella and Vinod K. Aggarwal Index... 139 vii
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Contributors Vinod K. Aggarwal is Professor of Political Science, Affiliated Professor at the Haas School of Business, and Director of the Berkeley APEC Study Center at the University of California at Berkeley Pavel K. Baev is Research Professor at the International Peace Research Institute Oslo Kristi Govella is Ph.D. candidate in Political Science at the University of California at Berkeley Christopher Granville is Managing Director of Trusted Sources Theocharis N. Grigoriadis is Ph.D. candidate in Political Science at the University of California at Berkeley and Ph.D. candidate in Economics at Saint Petersburg State University Robert Legvold is Professor of Political Science at Columbia University Mikhail Rykhtik is Professor at State University of Nizhni Novgorod Andrei P. Tsygankov is Professor of International Relations and Political Science at San Francisco State University ix
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Abbreviations ABM BTC BTE BRIC BRICS CDM CFE CIS CPC CSTO EU FDI FSS GDP IAEA INF ITER NATO NGO NPT NSC OECD OSCE PCA PSA RAO UESR RTS RSFSR SCO Anti-Ballistic Missile Baku Tiblisi Ceyhan Pipeline Baku Tiblisi Ezarum Pipeline Brazil, Russia, India, and China Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa Clean Development Mechanism (Kyoto Protocol) Conventional Forces in Europe Commonwealth of Independent States Caspian Pipeline Consortium Collective Security Treaty Organization European Union Foreign Direct Investment Federal Security Service Gross Domestic Product International Atomic Energy Agency Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor North Atlantic Treaty Organization Non-Governmental Organization Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty National Security Council Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe Partnership and Cooperation Agreement Production Sharing Agreement Unified Energy System of Russia Russia Trading System Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic Shanghai Cooperation Organization xi
xii Abbreviations SMEs START UK UN UNOMIG USSR WTO Small and Medium Enterprises Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty United Kingdom United Nations United Nations Observer Mission in Georgia Union of Soviet Socialist Republics World Trade Organization