OCTOBER 2018 TALKING POLITICS HOW AMERICANS AND GERMANS COMMUNICATE IN AN INCREASINGLY POLARIZED WORLD

OCTOBER 2018 TALKING POLITICS HOW AMERICANS AND GERMANS COMMUNICATE IN AN INCREASINGLY POLARIZED WORLD

OCTOBER 2018 TALKING POLITICS HOW AMERICANS AND GERMANS COMMUNICATE IN AN INCREASINGLY POLARIZED WORLD BY EMILY HRUBAN

2 Executive summary Although their societies are politically divided, the majority of Americans and Germans are willing to talk about politics as well as a host of contentious political issues. In the United States, 69.7 percent of survey respondents reported having had a political conversation in the past three months, with 56.4 percent having spoken to someone with whom they disagreed politically. In Germany, 74.4 percent had discussed politics, with 50.1 percent having had a political conversation with someone who held opposing views. These political conversations can be contentious. Americans report they are sometimes angry (49.9 percent) or uncomfortable (36.4 percent) when people talk about politics. Likewise, in Germany, 47.6 percent report sometimes feeling angry and 39.9 percent report feeling uncomfortable. Germans felt that it was far more appropriate than Americans to talk about issues ranging from immigration (87.5 percent, compared to 74.9 percent of Americans) to foreign policy (88.3 percent of Germans, compared to 73.7 percent of Americans). Likewise, Germans were more likely to say that it is appropriate to discuss religion (73.9 percent, compared to 55.5 percent of Americans) and abortion (73 percent, compared to 56.2 percent of Americans). Americans regarded only one of the 11 topics listed as more appropriate for discussion than Germans: 58.6 percent were comfortable discussing LGBTQ and related issues, as compared to 45.6 percent of Germans. Both Americans (72.8 percent) and Germans (78 percent) believe that the media is more interested in sensationalism than accuracy. In the United States, differences are extreme between political parties, with 58.4 percent of Democrats holding the belief, compared to 92.3 percent of Republicans. In Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany Party (AfD) was least trusting of the media, with 88 percent reporting that the news media was more interested in sensationalism, compared to 73.3 percent of centerright Christian Democratic Union (CDU) voters and 71.2 percent of center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) voters. Political polarization is of greater concern to the upper class. High earners in both countries are more likely to rank polarization as a key concern. In Germany, 26.5 percent of high earners rank it as one of their three top worries, compared to 20.8 percent of lower earners. In the United States, 29.9 percent of high earners rank it as a serious concern, compared to 17.7 percent of low earners.

Introduction 3 On both sides of the Atlantic, political polarization has been a subject of intense study and debate. In the United States, Donald Trump s populist rhetoric and policies from hardline immigration enforcement to his attempts to dismantle the Affordable Care Act have enraged and galvanized the left, with tensions running deep. In Germany, centrist parties like Chancellor Angela Merkel s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and their coalition partners, the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) have been losing support; voters have become disenchanted with the compromises the parties have made in recent years. This apathy has given way to success on the fringes: the far-right AfD took home an unprecedented 12.6 percent of the vote in the 2017 federal elections, winning over 90 seats in the Bundestag. Although it is easy to take the existence of political polarization for granted, we wanted to better understand what it looks like on the ground. Do Americans and Germans speak to people they disagree with? Which political topics are considered acceptable for public conversations? Which topics are taboo? We believe that understanding what polarization looks like and what it means on a day-to-day basis in both the United States and Germany is critical to combatting the problem and finding ways to bridge the divide. This survey examines the shared German and American trend of polarization in order to gain a better understanding of its meaning. We hope that the results are enlightening and instructive.

4 What does polarization look like? On both sides of the Atlantic, political polarization has been a subject of intense study and debate. We wanted to better understand what this division actually looks like on the ground. Do Americans and Germans speak to people they disagree with? What political topics are considered acceptable for public conversations? What topics are taboo? Have you done any of the following in the past three months? Spoken to someone from an opposing political party 58.1% Democrats 56.6% Republicans 51.7% Independents 31.9% Left 32.5% Right Spoken with someone you disagree with politically 61.5% Democrats 60.9% Republicans 58.5% Independents 56.9% Left 55.9% Right

What does polarization look like? 5 The majority of Americans and Germans reported having had conversations about politics in the last three months, primarily with friends and family. Germans were more likely to have had conversations about politics with co-workers, while Americans were more likely to have had them on social media. Have you discussed politics with any of the following in the past three months? DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS INDEPENDENTS Friends/Family 73.1% 70.7% 63.5% Coworkers 25.7% 21.3% 21.0% Community Members 21.8% 17.5% 15.4% Social Media 20.5% 15.3% 17.2% None of Above 22.9% 24.8% 32.2% LEFT RIGHT Friends/Family 72.0% 72.9% Coworkers 26.7% 31.0% Community Members 14.8% 19.4% Social Media 10.5% 12.2% None of Above 21.3% 16.4% For the sake of comparison we have grouped German parties on a left-right scale. Left-leaning parties are the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Left Party (LINKE), and Alliance 90/The Greens (GRUNE). Right-leaning political parties included are the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Christian Social Union (CSU), Free Democratic Party (FDP) and Alternative for Germany (AfD). For a full breakdown by Germany political party, visit www.bfna.org.

6 What does polarization look like? Have you done any of the following in the past three months? Asked someone about their political party affiliation 18.6% Democrats 14.2% Republicans 14.3% Independents 33.9% Left 33.8% Right Asked someone who they voted for in the most recent election 19.2% Democrats 15.4% Republicans 16.0% Independents 23.8% Left 25.7% Right

What does polarization look like? 7 How many people in your life would know who you voted for? * 57.4% Democrats 53.3% Republicans 30.2% Independents 40.0% Left 43.9% Right * People responded «many or most».

8 Race in America White Americans are more likely to report that they are sometimes angry when people talk about politics (52.9 percent, compared to 36.8 percent of African Americans and 39.6 percent of Hispanics). This is likely related to the fact that 60.3 percent of whites say they recently had a conversation with someone with whom they disagreed politically (compared to 53.2 percent of Hispanics and 39.2 percent of African Americans). Although there has been significant coverage of white Americans feeling left behind and forgotten, they are not alone in this. White Americans (77.9 percent) are as likely as African Americans (77.5 percent) to feel that traditional parties and politicians do not care about people like them. Hispanics are only slightly less likely to feel this way, at 73.4 percent.

What does polarization look like? 9 Have you done any of the following in the past three months? Asked someone about their political party affiliation 13.5% White 19.4% African American 21.3% Hispanic 13.7% Other Asked someone who they voted for in the most recent election 14.1% White 24.4% African American 20.7% Hispanic 15.9% Other

10 What topics are appropriate to talk about? Germans felt that it was far more appropriate to talk about issues ranging from immigration to foreign policy and religion. Americans regarded only one of the eleven topics listed as more appropriate for discussion than Germans: 58.6 percent were comfortable discussing LGBTQ and related issues, as compared to 45.6 percent of Germans. Do you think it is appropriate to talk about the following issues in public settings? DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS INDEPENDENTS Education 92.4% 92.9% 90.7% Economy 90.9% 92.1% 87.1% Employment 89.2% 86.7% 84.7% Immigration 78.8% 79.3% 74.8% Foreign Policy 77.6% 81.1% 72.3% Gun Control 83.1% 81.7% 77.6% Welfare 73.4% 75.2% 72.4% Feminism 77.8% 58.4% 66.4% Race/origin 58.9% 53.2% 54.1% Abortion 59.7% 55.2% 58.4% Religion 56.2% 59.8% 53.8% LGBTQ issues 70.4% 49.3% 58.6%

What topics are appropriate to talk about? 11 LEFT RIGHT Education 95.1% 90.6% Economy 93.9% 90.4% Employment 92.3% 88.8% Immigration 89.4% 90.1% Foreign Policy 91.2% 90.3% Gun Control 85.3% 84.1% Welfare 88.6% 86.4% Feminism 81.1% 72.5% Race/origin 78.4% 80.5% Abortion 76.9% 71.2% Religion 76.9% 77.1% LGBTQ issues 47.6% 46.9%

12 Polarization impacts how people engage with one another Americans report sometimes being angry (49.9 percent) or uncomfortable (36.4 percent) when people talk about politics. Likewise, in Germany, 47.6 percent report sometimes feeling angry and 39.9 percent report feeling uncomfortable. Do you agree with the following statements? I am sometimes angry when people talk about politics 54.2% Democrats 49.5% Republicans 48.7% Independents 50.7% Left 48.2% Right

Polarization impacts how people engage with one another 13 Do you agree with the following statements? I have been made uncomfortable by conversations about politics 43.2% Democrats 33.6% Republicans 33.1% Independents 43.5% Left 42.8% Right I would prefer not to talk about politics with someone I disagree with to avoid conflict 66.9% Democrats 59.7% Republicans 59.5% Independents 32.5% Left 35.7% Right

14 Gender In both the United States and Germany, women report being less interested in politics than their male peers. Women in both countries are also more likely to report that they had been made uncomfortable in recent months by political conversations. In Germany, men and women are equally likely to find topics ranging from immigration to foreign policy appropriate for public conversation. However, women are more likely to report that abortion (75.5 percent compared to 70.5 percent of men) and feminism (78.2 percent compared to 70.8 percent of men) are appropriate to talk about. In the United States, men and women are much more divided in their understanding of which topics are appropriate for public discussion. Almost across the board, men are more likely to say that various topics are appropriate, from immigration (78.2 percent of men compared to 71.9 percent of women), to foreign policy (78.5 percent compared to 69.5 percent). Men (60 percent) are even more likely than women (52.8 percent) to say that abortion is appropriate to discuss. Only 46 percent of Republican women feel that it is an appropriate topic. Do you agree with the following statements? I am sometimes angry when people talk about politics 46.4% Men 53.0% Women 46.6% Men 48.6% Women

Polarization impacts how people engage with one another 15 Do you agree with the following statements? I have been made uncomfortable by conversations about politics 30.8% Men 41.5% Women 42.2% Men 37.8% Women I would prefer not to talk about politics with someone I disagree with to avoid conflict 56.0% Men 67.6% Women 31.3% Men 34.4% Women

16 Topics of Concern Which of these following topics do you find the most worrying? DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS INDEPENDENTS Healthcare 45.0% 33.8% 35.3% Crime or gun violence 40.6% 23.5% 28.0% Terrorism 21.4% 38.2% 29.1% Political extremism or polarization 22.6% 23.6% 26.2% Immigration 10.0% 41.2% 18.4% Climate change 29.1% 5.6% 17.0% Taxes 11.6% 23.0% 12.4% Government budget or debt 10.3% 21.3% 15.5% Education 15.0% 9.9% 12.5% Unemployment 10.1% 10.8% 13.4% Nuclear conflict 12.0% 11.1% 12.2% Social inequality 18.9% 3.0% 11.0% Online privacy 8.9% 10.4% 11.0% Women s issues or gender equality 13.1% 3.1% 9.1% Foreign conflicts 7.2% 6.9% 6.6% Globalization 1.4% 5.6% 1.7% European politics 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% None of these 2.1% 2.5% 5.2%

Topics of Concern 17 Which of these following topics do you find the most worrying? LEFT RIGHT Terrorism 36.2% 44.6% Social inequality 43.9% 25.3% Immigration 21.1% 44.7% Climate change 38.7% 25.7% Political extremism or polarization 30.6% 20.4% Crime or gun violence 21.1% 22.8% Healthcare 15.5% 12.2% European politics 9.9% 15.6% Foreign conflicts 12.7% 10.7% Nuclear conflict 11.9% 10.4% Education 10.6% 8.4% Unemployment 8.5% 8.1% Taxes 6.1% 8.7% Online privacy 5.5% 5.7% Globalization 3.8% 4.8% Government budget or debt 2.9% 5.1% Women s issues or gender equality 3.7% 3.0% None of these 1.7% 2.4%

18 Topics of Concern High earners and more educated people in both countries were more likely to rank polarization as a key concern, while lower earners ranked issues more relevant to their day-to-day lives, like healthcare (United States) and social inequality (Germany), as their top worries. HIGH SCHOOL DEGREE OR LESS EDUCATION SOME COLLEGE BACHELOR S DEGREE OR HIGHER Healthcare 41.1% 37.4% 36.3% Crime or gun violence 34.0% 31.1% 28.5% Terrorism 30.4% 29.8% 24.2% Political extremism or polarization 15.5% 23.8% 28.9% Immigration 22.0% 21.3% 17.0% Climate change 15.4% 17.9% 22.1% Taxes 15.6% 14.3% 14.8% Government budget or debt 12.2% 15.4% 16.7% Education 10.7% 11.4% 14.5% Unemployment 14.9% 10.3% 9.5% Nuclear conflict 15.3% 11.6% 6.9% Social inequality 8.8% 12.1% 14.9% Taxes 56.2% 59.8% 40.9% Online privacy 11.7% 10.8% 7.7% Women s issues or gender equality 6.6% 9.4% 10.8% Foreign conflicts 6.8% 6.7% 6.6% Globalization 2.6% 2.4% 3.2% European politics 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% None of these 5.1% 4.0% 4.6%

Tribalism how political affiliation shapes worldview 19 Americans who identify with a political party are fiercely loyal to that party s politicians and critical of their opponents. Although 56 percent of Democrats, whose party is currently out of power, report that their own family s finances are on the right track, only 21.9 percent say the same is true of the economy. For comparison Republicans, whose party currently controls the White House and both houses of Congress, were equally likely to report that their finances (71.3 percent) and the national economy (74 percent) are on track. Democrats are also significantly more likely to say the country is on the wrong track (82.2 percent, compared to 26.3 percent of Republicans), and that the country s leaders are on the wrong track (88.6 percent, compared to 24.8 percent of Republicans). Germans on the other hand are less likely to support a party so fiercely. The CDU/CSU and SPD governing coalition does not enjoy the same level of support from its own party members. Fewer than half of CDU (44.8 percent), CSU (22.5 percent) and SPD (21.2 percent) voters say they believe that the country s leaders are on the right track. The Green Party, in the opposition, voices more support for Germany s leadership (27.8 percent), while other opposition parties are more critical, with five percent of AfD supporters believing the country s leaders are on the right track, 10.2 percent of die Linke (the Left Party) and 13.5 percent of Free Democratic Party (FDP) supporters. Generally speaking, would you say the following are heading in the right direction? DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS INDEPENDENTS Family s finances 56.0% 71.3% 59.1% Economy 21.9% 74.0% 39.5% Country s leaders 5.6% 61.1% 21.2% Country 9.8% 61.4% 27.3% CDU SPD LINKE GREEN CSU FDP AFD Family s finances 74.3% 64.4% 54.4% 68.6% 66.0% 69.2% 46.3% Economy 71.1% 46.4% 34.1% 44.0% 59.1% 56.1% 33.4% Country s leaders 44.8% 21.2% 10.2% 27.8% 22.5% 13.5% 5.0% Country 51.6% 33.1% 17.8% 38.6% 27.1% 29.7% 8.4%

20 Feeling Left Behind Americans and Germans alike report feeling that traditional parties have abandoned them. In the United States, although there has been significant coverage of white voters feeling left behind, white Americans (77.9 percent) were as likely as African Americans (77.5 percent) to feel that traditional parties and politicians do not care about people like them. Hispanics were only slightly less likely to feel this way, at 73.4 percent. Do you agree with the following statements? When jobs are scarce, employers should prioritize hiring people of this country over immigrants 56.9% Democrats 85.2% Republicans 69.8% Independents 48.4% Left 68.8% Right [America/Germany] needs a strong leader to take the country back from the rich and powerful 90.4% Democrats 69.6% Republicans 78.4% Independents 65.3% Left 66.1% Right

Feeling Left Behind 21 Do you agree with the following statements? The [American/German] economy is rigged to advantage the rich and powerful 91.5% Democrats 53.9% Republicans 76.3% Independents 80.8% Left 68.7% Right Traditional parties and politicians don t care about people like me 81.0% Democrats 69.8% Republicans 83.5% Independents 69.9% Left 69.0% Right

22 22 Feeling Left Behind Do you agree with the following statements? Political correctness threatens our liberty as [Americans/Germans] to speak our minds 56.9% Democrats 84.0% Republicans 71.4% Independents 42.7% Left 63.1% Right I think my vote matters / will make a difference 77.1% Democrats 78.8% Republicans 61.8% Independents 71.2% Left 66.0% Right

Media 23 Both Americans (72.8 percent) and Germans (78 percent) say they believe that the media is more interested in sensationalism than accuracy. In both countries, disparities exist between political parties. In the United States, 92.3 percent of Republicans and 58.4 percent of Democrats report holding this belief. In Germany, traditional parties like the SPD (71.2 percent) and CDU (73.3 percent) are less likely than average to believe that the media is more interested in sensationalism, compared to 88 percent of AfD supporters and 82.3 percent of die Linke s supporters. Americans who believe that the media pursues sensationalism are significantly less likely to follow the news than Americans who believe the media reports accurately across local news (70 percent, compared to 86.4 percent), national news (72.4 percent, compared to 88.3 percent), and international news (62.5 percent, compared to 83.2 percent). The same is not the case for German voters, who are equally likely to follow the news regardless of their beliefs about media sensationalism. Do you agree with the following statements? I am interested in politics 69.3% Democrats 70.5% Republicans 56.3% Independents 75.8% Left 80.0% Right The news media is more interested in sensationalism than telling the truth 58.4% Democrats 92.3% Republicans 77.6% Independents 78.6% Left 79.5% Right

24 Media In general, how often do you do each of the following? I follow local politics in the news 80.1% Democrats 73.9% Republicans 67.9% Independents 88.5% Left 87.4% Right I follow national politics in the news 81.1% Democrats 78.5% Republicans 69.7% Independents 90.8% Left 88.0% Right

Media 25 In general, how often do you do each of the following? I follow international politics in the news 72.2% Democrats 66.4% Republicans 62.4% Independents 90.1% Left 87.5% Right

26 Conclusion Political polarization is clearly a challenge for both the United States and Germany, albeit in different ways. The two-party system has long divided Americans, along with racial and socio-economic disparities. This split has become particularly apparent since the 2016 presidential election. In Germany, the divide has led to a different trajectory. As Germans become more frustrated with the centrist powers that have long dominated the political landscape in Berlin, parties on the left and right are slowly gathering momentum. Despite these divisions, this study has found that people continue to talk, and continue to talk about difficult and contentious issues, even if doing so sometimes makes them angry or uncomfortable. This openness to dialogue is a first step in addressing the divides that we feel in our day-to-day lives in the United States and in Germany. However, talking is not enough. Without listening, openness and willingness to compromise, these divisions cannot be bridged. We hope that this survey helps people everywhere understand what polarization looks like at its core, and that this knowledge can help us begin to bridge the divide.

Methodology 27 These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted July 19-28, 2018. For the survey, a sample of 4,000 adults were interviewed online in English or German. The sample includes 2,000 Americans and 2,000 Germans. The sample for this study was randomly drawn from Ipsos s online panel, partner online panel sources, and river sampling and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the US population using standard procedures such as rakingratio adjustments. The source of these population targets are the US Census 2016 American Community Survey and Eurostats 2013. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post-hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity (US only), region and education. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online nonprobability sampling polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=1,005, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=3.3). The poll also has a credibility interval plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for Americans, and 2.5 percentage points for Independents. For more information about conducting research intended for public release or Ipsos s online polling methodology, please visit our Public Opinion Polling and Communication page where you can download our brochure, see our public release protocol, or contact us.

Acknowledgements 29 The Bertelsmann Foundation wishes to acknowledge the contributions and efforts of those who helped make this publication possible. Thank you to the team at IPSOS Public Affairs, especially Jennifer Berg, Robert Grimm, Chris Jackson and Thomas Patino. Our appreciation also goes to those who helped produce Talking Politics: How Americans and Germans Communicate in an Increasingly Polarized World. Thank you to the team at Insomniac Design Inc, that helped bring the survey to life, including Yun Suk Choi, Anastasia Zueva Gerardo, Ashwin Jayaram, Aileen Ma and Jagjeevan Virdee. We are also thankful for the diligent editing skills of Lisa Goldman. Thank you to the Bertelsmann Foundation s Emily Hruban, the author of this study, for her vision and hard work. This publication would not have been possible without the direction and guidance of Anthony Silberfeld and Emily Rodriguez. With sincere gratitude, Irene Braam Executive Director Bertelsmann Foundation

31 About the Bertelsmann Foundation The Bertelsmann Foundation, established in 2008, is the North American arm of the Germany-Based Bertelsmann Stiftung. It was created to promote and strengthen the transatlantic relationship. Through its research, debate forums and multimedia tools, the Foundation provides analysis and solutions to the most pressing economic, political and social challenges impacting the United States and Europe. About Ipsos Ipsos is a global market research and a consulting firm, which is passionately curious about people, markets, brands, and society. Focusing on six research specializations, their broad range of industry experts offer intimate understanding of brands, consumers, and markets. Their primary goal is to drive the industry with innovative, best in class research techniques that are meaningful in today s connected society. Based in Paris, France, Ipsos has offices in almost 90 countries, where they focus on testing advertising and media, bringing concepts to market, measuring customer loyalty and surveying public opinion. About the Author Emily Hruban is manager, transatlantic relations at the Bertelsmann Foundation. She holds a bachelor s degree in anthropology from the University of Chicago and a master s degree in transcultural studies from Heidelberg University.

1275 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW, SUITE 601 WASHINGTON, DC 20004 WWW.BFNA.ORG