Global Publishing Markets Mapping data, developments, and patterns of the publishing industry worldwide. A study for the International Publishers Association (IPA), supported by the London Book Fair and BookExpo America. Presented at the London Book fair, April 16, 2012
The goal of the survey Maping & understanding the role and the value of books and publishing in the global knowledge society
The guidelines of the survey A global survey of publishing markets By country and By region Ultimately: A map of global publishing Develop a grid for comparing and understanding the publishing industry: The market dynamics The differences between countries and regions The cultural background The wider context
What data? The key indicators Market indicators: Publishers annual revenues Market size at consumer value Number of titles published (new & re-editions) Number of copies printed Imports & exports
What data? The key indicators: References : Number of titles by million inhabitants of a country GDP per capita Exports & Imports
What data? The key indicators: Contexts: Number of titles by million inhabitants of a country Import / export balance GDP per capita Purchasing power parity
The sources Methodology: Data sources: 1. Publishers' revenues 2. Market value (at consumer prices) 3. Titles published (new & re-editions) 4. Selected exports data Professional organisations and government Professional media Expert estimates Projections & cross referencing
The status quo This preliminary version ( Beta ): 50+ countries Ca. 50 bn of publishers revenues Ca. 80 bn of market value 17 markets with over 1 bn value
Findings 2012: Samples & case studies Increase the number of countries Starting to record a history with data Profile regions (e.g. Asia, Arab countries) Compare sets of markets (e.g.emerging markets) Compare revenue developments & production statistics in US, Europe Use exports to map data poor countries Chart exports against domestic production Develop historic profiles
The largest book markets (01) Country Publishers revenues (m ) Market value (m ) Titles per 1 m inhabitants USA 18.927 27.445 985 PR China 10.602 245 Germany 4.530 9.734 1172 Japan 7.129 586 UK 3.738 4.080 2459 France 2.838 4.620 1267 India (est. 2007) 1.675 87 Italy 1.640 3.417 956
The largest book markets (02) Country Publishers revenues (m ) Market value (m ) Titles per 1 m inhabitants Spain 2.891 1692 Korea 2.265 824 Brazil 2.027 271 Russia 1.771 Canada 1.535 Australia (prel.) 1.520 860 Poland 697 1.123 571 Taiwan 1.200 1522 Netherlands 1.174 1412
US & large EU markets: Sales Country Year Publ's Revenues (m domest. currency) Market Value (m domest. currency) Currency USA 2010 27100 US$ 2009 27900 US$ Germany 2010 9734 EUR 2009 9691 EUR UK 2010 3115 3400 GBP 2009 3053 3404 GBP France 2010 2829 EUR 2009 2838 4620 EUR Italy 2010 3408 EUR 2009 3417 EUR Spain 2010 2890 EUR 2009 3110 EUR
US & large EU markets: Production Country Year Number of New Titles New Titles per 1 m Inhabitants USA 2010 316480 1018 2009 302410 985 Germany 2010 95838 1172 2009 93124 1138 UK 2010 151969 2156 2009 133224 2459 France 2010 79308 1267 2009 66595 1064 Italy 2010 57558 956 2009 58829 977 Spain 2010 79839 1692 2009 76213 1657
EU small markets: Sales Country Year Publ's Rev s (m domest. Curr.) Market Value (m domest. Curr.) Currency Belgium 2010 264 EUR 2009 158 262 EUR PubRev's / MarkVal m Hungary 2010 61571 HUF *** / 221 2009 31000 61500 HUF 114 / 226 Netherlands 2010 1174 EUR Poland 2010 2009 1168 EUR 2008 2910 4689 mzloty 697 / 1123 Slovenia 2010 23 90 EUR 2009 90 EUR
EU small markets: Production Country Year Belgium 2010 Number of New Titles New Titles per 1 m Inhabitants 2009 7945 743 Hungary 2010 12997 1300 2009 14447 1445 Netherlands 2010 23300 1412 Poland 2010 2009 21337 1293 2008 21740 571 Slovenia 2010 5621 2811 2009 6139 3070 Greece 2008 10631 984 Serbia 2009 4500 634
Emerging Markets: Sales Country Year Publ's Rev s (m Domestic currency) Market Value (m Domestic currency) Currency Brazil 2010 4505 m R$ 2009 4167 m R$ China 2010 93000 RMB 2006 84000 RMB Russia 2011 2300 USD 2010 2500 USD 2008 3000 USD
Emerging Markets: Production Country Year Number of New Titles New Titles per 1 m Inhabitants Brazil 2010 54753 285 2009 43814 226 China 2010 189000 (new) 245 (328000 new+reed.) 2006 168296 Russia 2011 122915 866 2010 121700 857 2008 123300 868
Regional overview: Asia Country Year Pub rev s (m, local curr.) Market value (m local currency) Currency Pub Rev s / Market (m ) Number of titles published Number of titles per million inhab s PR China 2010 93000 mrmb 10602 328000 245 India 2007 2500 US$ 1675 100000 87 Japan 2011 819800 my 75810 595 2010 821300 my 7129 74714 586 S. Korea 2009 3782047 mwon 2013 42191 863 2008 3576000 mwon 43099 824 Taiwan 2010 1600 mus$ 1200 2008 50000 NTUS$ 1120 35000 1522 Thailand 2009 18800 mbaht 393 13607 201 Vietnam 2009 1453000 mvnd 55 24589 299
Top global export nations (m local curr.) Target 2005 2009 2010 2011 % UK World 1.411 1.667 1.741 23,42% US World (- Can, UK) 2.586 2.632 2.741 2.818 8,97% France World (07) 694 665 704 1,5% Spain World 335 252-25%
Exports INTO emerging markets (local curr.) Target 2005 2007 2010 2011 % UK Brazil 4.800.000 15.629.128 225,61% US Brazil 39.593.730 70.747.452 71.073.993 83.016.841 109,67% FR Brazil 2.220.000 3.017.000 UK China 13.700.000 25.500.484 86,13% US China 81.313.761 111.700.611 164.093.903 168.008.841 106,62% FR China 1.255.000 2.841.000 UK India 19.900.000 32.633.069 63,99% US India 38.709.885 80.258.983 57.175.337 57.342.181 48,13% South UK 11.000.000 16.776.494 52,51% Korea South US 73.149.229 94.592.220 79.260.845 77.407.253 5,82% Korea UK Malaysia 5.500.000 6.113.115 11,15% US Malaysia 14.093.422 24.111.601 19.714.463 24.279.323 72,27%
UK & US Exports into selected emerging markets (in ) 140.000.000 180,00% 120.000.000 100.000.000 80.000.000 160,00% 140,00% 120,00% 100,00% 80,00% 60.000.000 40.000.000 20.000.000-60,00% 40,00% 20,00% 0,00% -20,00% 2005 ( ) 2011 ( ) % in (2005-2011)
UK & US Exports into selected emerging markets (in ) 140.000.000 180,00% 120.000.000 100.000.000??? 160,00% 140,00% 120,00% 80.000.000 60.000.000 100,00% 80,00% 60,00% 40.000.000 20.000.000 40,00% 20,00% 0,00% - -20,00% 2005 ( ) 2011 ( ) % in (2005-2011)
50.000.000 45.000.000 40.000.000 35.000.000 30.000.000 25.000.000 20.000.000 15.000.000 10.000.000 5.000.000 - UK & US Exports into Arab countries (in ) 300,00% 250,00% 200,00% 150,00% 100,00% 50,00% 0,00% 2010/2011 ( ) % (2005-2011)
50.000.000 45.000.000 40.000.000 35.000.000 30.000.000 25.000.000 20.000.000 15.000.000 10.000.000 5.000.000 - UK & US Exports into Arab countries (in )!!! 300,00% 250,00% 200,00% 150,00% 100,00% 50,00% 0,00% 2010/2011 ( ) % (2005-2011)
France France Germany Germany Netherlands Netherlands Sweden Sweden Spain Spain US / UK imports into EU main markets 180000000 160000000 140000000 120000000 100000000 80000000 60000000 40000000 20000000 0 70,00% 60,00% 50,00% 40,00% 30,00% 20,00% 10,00% 0,00% -10,00% -20,00% -30,00% 2005 2009 2011 % (2005-2011) UK US UK US UK US UK US UK US
France France Germany Germany Netherlands Netherlands Sweden Sweden Spain Spain US / UK imports into EU main markets 180000000 160000000 140000000 120000000 100000000 80000000 60000000 40000000 20000000 0 70,00% 60,00% 50,00% 40,00% 30,00% 20,00% 10,00% 0,00% -10,00% -20,00% -30,00% 2005 2009 2011 % (2005-2011) UK US UK US UK US UK US UK US
Country case study India Unique market environment: Strong role of English Strong market presence of UK publishers Many local languages High share of educational (90%?) over trade (10?) Prominent role of the Indian government in educational No official data Divide between private & public sector High fragmentation Patterns of emerging market (BRIC) New global players not yet arrived (e.g. Amazon) Imminent change by new game changing factors 60$ tablet (mid 2012) Flipkart
Country case study: Arab countries 300 m Arabic speakers, BUT High fragmentation by country Low literacy Low prestige of reading Low penetration of knowledge drivers Pragmatic constraints Censorship Political instability Piracy Lack of distribution infrastructure No data available, except: Some production Ca. 15,000 new titles & reeditions per yr. (est., excl. Maghreb) Imports Contraditory developments Growth of imports Decline of domestic sales 2 highly divergent trajectories: Gulf & Saudi Arabia All other Arab countries Drivers of change: Emergence of a (small) media savy elite Mobile reading English reading
Outlook Most wanted indicators & definitions Publishers revenues Market value Background on specific market features (pricing policies, government involvement esp. sn education, ave. prices trade) Import & export Number of new titles Number of copies sold Next steps in data research and in developing context : Broaden country base Develop data history Connect data by regions and clusters Introduce general economic indicators (GDP, PPP) Develop broader, reliable narrative
Partners Sponsors IPA London Book Fair BookExpo America Input partners National publishers associations Fellow experts Trade media
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