Contributions to Political Science
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Andreas C. Goldberg The Impact of Cleavages on Swiss Voting Behaviour A Modern Research Approach 123
Andreas C. Goldberg Amsterdam School of Communication Research (ASCoR) University of Amsterdam Amsterdam, The Netherlands Additional material to this book can be downloaded from http://extras.springer.com. ISSN 2198-7289 ISSN 2198-7297 (electronic) Contributions to Political Science ISBN 978-3-319-45999-8 ISBN 978-3-319-46000-0 (ebook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-46000-0 Library of Congress Control Number: 2016955550 Springer International Publishing AG 2017 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. Printed on acid-free paper This Springer imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Acknowledgements This book is based on my doctoral thesis entitled The impact of cleavages in a longitudinal and contextual perspective which I defended at the Geneva School of Social Sciences at the University of Geneva in November 2015. During the preparation of this publication, I received valuable comments and support from various persons and institutions, which I would like to thank. First and foremost, I would like to thank my supervisor Pascal Sciarini for his continuous support since the start of my doctoral studies. He has always been very generous with his time and has given me precious advice to develop the original outline of the project into this final version. I would also like to thank the other members of my jury Simon Hug, Mark Franklin and Hanspeter Kriesi for the lively discussion during the defence and the very helpful comments they provided me with. A special thanks in this context goes to Simon Hug for his statistical advices throughout the last years. My doctoral project was a cooperation between the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the University of Geneva and the Swiss Electoral Studies based at FORS in Lausanne. Although the collaboration with the Swiss Electoral Studies, especially following the 2011 Swiss national elections, meant a lot of work, I really enjoyed working in our team. Under the leadership of Georg Lutz, I learned a lot about the data basis I used for this publication. I would also like to thank my SELECTS colleagues Nicolas Pekari, Thomi de Rocchi, Robert Baur and Reto Wattenhofer for our meetings and inspiring discussions. During the last years, I also had the chance to meet several scholars working on similar topics who provided valuable feedback and assistance with occurring problems. Here, I want to mention especially Daniel Oesch, Romain Lachat, Line Rennwald and Nathalie Giger. I further want to thank the colleagues at the University of Geneva for the nice and stimulating working atmosphere. For proofreading the book, my thanks go to Colleen Tait and Monique Beerli, who kindly agreed to read parts or even the whole manuscript. Last but not least, I want to thank my family and friends who supported me during my research project. For the financial funding, I gratefully acknowledge the support by the Swiss National Science Foundation (Grant Nr 10FI13-133957). v
Contents 1 Introduction... 1 References... 6 2 Theory of Cleavage Voting... 9 2.1 Schools of Electoral Research... 10 2.2 Electoral Behaviourin a CleavagePerspective... 12 2.2.1 Definition of Cleavage... 13 2.2.2 Linkingthe Cleavage Concept to Real Voting... 16 2.2.3 Historical Cleavages andnew Types... 18 2.2.4 Recent Developments... 22 2.2.5 Cleavage System in Switzerland... 26 2.3 The ContextualAspect of Voting... 29 2.3.1 Definition of Contextual Effect... 31 2.3.2 Mechanism... 34 2.3.3 ModeratingInfluence... 37 References... 38 3 Longitudinal Impact of Cleavages... 45 3.1 Conceptualisingthe Impactof Cleavage... 46 3.2 TheoreticalEffectand EmpiricalEvidence... 47 3.2.1 Religious Voting Between Decline and ContentChange... 47 3.2.2 A Changing,but Stable Class Vote?... 55 3.2.3 The Classical Rural-UrbanCleavage in Decline... 66 3.2.4 A Stable, but Moderate Influence of Language... 70 3.3 Data andmethod... 74 3.3.1 Swiss ElectoralStudies... 74 3.3.2 Operationalisation... 75 3.3.3 LambdaIndex... 81 3.4 Cleavage StrengthOver Time... 84 3.4.1 The Declining but Prevailing Religious Effect... 86 3.4.2 Social Class in Transformation and with a New Facet... 94 vii
viii Contents 3.4.3 The Vanished Effect of the Classical Rural-Urban Cleavage... 101 3.4.4 Language with a Modest but Stable Effect... 104 3.5 Conclusion... 108 References... 113 4 Impact Across Parties... 119 4.1 Party-SpecificVoting Behaviour... 120 4.2 Data andmethod... 123 4.3 DescriptiveStatistics of IndividualParty Vote... 124 4.3.1 Religion... 125 4.3.2 Social Class... 126 4.3.3 Rural-Urban... 127 4.3.4 NormativeVariables... 129 4.4 Net Effects of CleavageVoting... 130 4.5 Conclusion... 136 References... 138 5 Contextual Approach of Voting... 139 5.1 Cantonal Distributionof Cleavage Influence... 140 5.2 Cleavage Voting in ThreeTypes ofcantons... 145 5.2.1 Cluster Analysis... 145 5.2.2 Voting Patterns in Three Clusters... 149 5.3 Individual,ContextualandJoint Effects... 155 5.3.1 Two Faces of Religious Influence... 155 5.3.2 Social Class Voting Due to Economic Inequalities... 158 5.3.3 Urbanisationand its Influenceon Voting Patterns... 160 5.4 Data andmethod... 163 5.5 EmpiricalFindings... 169 5.5.1 Separate Influenceof Individualand ContextualEffects... 169 5.5.2 Cross-LevelEffects... 176 5.6 Conclusion... 184 References... 187 6 Combined Approach in a Longitudinal and Contextual Perspective... 191 6.1 Theory About Harmonisation of Cleavage Voting... 194 6.2 Data andmethod... 198 6.2.1 Typology of Swiss cantons... 198 6.2.2 LambdaComparisonAcross Clusters... 200 6.3 Results... 203 6.4 Conclusion... 213 References... 216
Contents ix 7 General Conclusion... 219 References... 228 A Appendix... 229
Acronyms AG AI AR BDP BE BfS BL BS CSP CVP EEA EGP EU EVP FDP FR GE GfS GL GLP GR GP ISCO JU LPS LU MCG MCR NE NW OW Aargau (Argovia) Appenzell Innerrhoden (Appenzell Inner-Rhodes) Appenzell Ausserrhoden (Appenzell Outer-Rhodes) Bürgerlich-Demokratische Partei (Conservative Democratic Party) Bern Bundesamt für Statistik (Federal Statistical Office) Basel-Land (Basle-Country) Basel-Stadt (Basle-City) Christlich-soziale Partei (Christian Social Party) Christlichdemokratische Volkspartei (Christian Democratic People s Party) European Economic Area Erikson-Goldthorpe-Portocarero European Union Evangelische Volkspartei (Evangelical People s Party) Freisinnig-Demokratische Partei (Free Democratic Party) Fribourg Genève (Geneva) Gesellschaft für praktische Sozialforschung Glarus Grünliberale Partei (Green Liberal Party) Graubünden (Grisons) Grüne Partei (Green Party) International Standard Classification of Occupations Jura Liberale Partei der Schweiz (Liberal Party) Luzern (Lucerne) Mouvement Citoyens Genevois (Geneva Citizens Movement) Mouvement Citoyens Romand (Romandie Citizens Movement) Neuchâtel Nidwalden Obwalden xi
xii Acronyms PR SG SH SO SP SVP SZ TG TI UR US VD VS ZG ZH Proportional representation St. Gallen Schaffhausen Solothurn Sozialdemokratische Partei (Social Democratic Party) Schweizerische Volkspartei (Swiss People s Party) Schwyz Thurgau (Thurgovia) Ticino Uri United States of America Vaud Valais Zug Zürich