Public Opinion Strategies is pleased to present key findings from two national surveys of 800 actual voters conducted on November 6, 2012. These surveys were merged, for a total of 1,600 actual voters nationally. The margin of error is +2.5%. Please note: additional data sources are referenced throughout this presentation, including national exit polls and NBC/WSJ national survey data. 2
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Over 1.05 Billion was spent on TV ads in target states. States with the highest TV ad spending $48M $65M $86M $77M $55M $18M $214M $30M $165M $73M $201M *Data from a National Journal Updated November 2 nd, 2012. 4
Consumer confidence inched above the average mean score in which past incumbents have lost the election. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Average Among Incumbent Winners^ October 2012* Average Among Incumbent Losers^ ^Includes elections from 1956 to 2008. 5
President Obama was boosted by improving consumer confidence in the last three months of the election. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index August 2008 August 2012 October 2008 October 2012 6
As President George W. Bush did in 2004, President Obama won reelection with more than a majority of voters saying the country is off on the wrong track. Mood of the Country Trend Data -38% +7% +23% -9% -69% -9% 82% 26% 64% 47% 40% 57% 34% 43% 52% 44% 53% 13% 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 Right Direction Wrong Track Now, generally speaking, would you say that things in the COUNTRY are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? 7
Also, as in 2004, less than one in ten voters made up their mind in the last few days leading up to the election or on election day. Time of Vote Decision-Making Today/The last few days before the election October September Before September 2004 2012 Now, some people decide early in a campaign how they will vote. Others make their decisions just before the election. When would you say you made your FINAL decision on which candidate you were going to vote for in the election for President? 8
There is also a trend in which more people are voting early by mail, absentee, or early polling locations before election day. Voted Election Day vs. Voted Early All Voters 2004 2008 2012 Voted on Election Day Voted Early And, did you vote by mail or send in an absentee ballot for this year s elections, did you go to an early polling location to cast a ballot before today, or did you vote at the polls today? 9
Voted Election Day vs. Voted Early By Party % Voted Election Day % Voted Early (32%) Independents (31%) (36%) And, did you vote by mail or send in an absentee ballot for this year s elections, did you go to an early polling location to cast a ballot before today, or did you vote at the polls today? 10
The candidates secured their votes within their bases, with Romney carrying Independents by eight points. Presidential Ballot Overall & By Party Mitt Romney Barack Obama Total (32%) Independents (31%) (36%) And, for which of the following candidates did/will you vote for President... 11
Presidential Ballot By Voted Election Day vs. Voted Early % Voted Election Day % Voted Early Mitt Romney Barack Obama And, for which of the following candidates did/will you vote for President... 12
President Obama won the younger vote, while Romney won the older vote. Presidential Ballot By Age 36% -23% -6% +3% +7% +14% 59% 46% 52% 50% 53% 47% 46% 57% 43% 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+ 65+ Mitt Romney Barack Obama And, for which of the following candidates did/will you vote for President... 13
As the electoral map showed on election night, President Obama was the clear winner in the West and Northeast, while Romney easily carried the South. The Midwest was a tight race. Presidential Ballot Region -23% +3% +14% -10% 61% 56% 53% 50% 47% 42% 43% 38% Northeast (22%) Midwest (22%) Mitt Romney South (34%) Barack Obama West (23%) And, for which of the following candidates did/will you vote for President... 14
The swing states decided this election by a very narrow margin. Presidential Ballot By Electoral Map 60% +23% -1% -20% 37% 49% 50% 39% 59% Republican States (32%) Mitt Romney Swing States (22%) Barack Obama Democratic States (46%) And, for which of the following candidates did/will you vote for President... 15
There is a wide divide by ethnicity. Presidential Ballot By Ethnicity +16% -87% -46% 93% 72% 57% 41% 26% 6% Whites African Americans Latinos Mitt Romney Barack Obama And, for which of the following candidates did/will you vote for President... 16
Romney won the White vote, but the margin among non- Whites voting for President Obama was too large of a divide. Presidential Ballot By Whites/Non-Whites +16% -56% 77% 57% 41% 21% Whites Non-Whites Mitt Romney Barack Obama And, for which of the following candidates did/will you vote for President... 17
There was also a wide divide by gender. Presidential Ballot By Gender +10% -12% 53% 43% 43% 55% Men Women Mitt Romney Barack Obama And, for which of the following candidates did/will you vote for President... 18
Romney had the edge among economy/jobs voters, while President Obama had the edge among health care and education voters. Presidential Ballot By Respondent s Top TWO Most Important Vote Issues The Economy (Romney 61%-Obama 37%)) Obama Advantage Romney Advantage 24% Jobs (Romney 54%- Obama 45%) 9% Foreign Policy (Romney 52%-Obama 46%) 6% Health Care (Romney 28%- 69%) -41% Education (Romney 14%-Obama 85%) -71% And, putting aside character or other personal issues for the presidential campaign, what one or two ISSUES were most important to you when deciding to vote for President? 19
The economy continued to be the #1 issue for the second straight election. Most Important Vote Issue For President The Economy Health Care Jobs Foreign Policy Education Taxes Abortion Pro-Choice Abortion Pro-Life Iraq Negative 2004 2008 2012 And, putting aside character or other personal issues for the presidential campaign, what one or two ISSUES were most important to you when deciding to vote for President? 20
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Our POS post-election trend data comparing the White vs. non-white percentages shows an interesting finding regarding how the electorate is shifting. Bush won the election in 2004 by 2.5 points but Romney lost by 2.3 points. Romney lost while having roughly the same percentage of the White vs. Non-White vote as Bush in 2004. November 2004 +17% -56% Presidential Ballot Trend by Whites/Non-Whites November 2008 +9% -55% November 2012 +16% -56% 78% 77% 77% 58% 41% 54% 45% 57% 41% 22% 22% 21% Whites Non-Whites Whites Non-Whites Whites Non-Whites Republican Candidate Democratic Candidate And, for which of the following candidates did/will you vote for President... 22
As noted, the previous slide shows Public Opinion Strategies election night national survey data for the presidential ballot over time among Whites versus non-whites. The data on the next three slides shows actual exit poll data. Although the numbers may differ slightly, the core premise rings true. Romney s margin among Whites in the exit polls (+20%) is the highest margin for a Republican presidential candidate since 1984 and 1988. But, this data among African Americans and Latinos shows there is a new world with changing demographics which is shifting the composition of the electorate. The percent of the electorate that is White dropped from 77% in 2004 to 72% this election. 23
This EXIT POLL DATA showing the net margins by party by year by ethnicity further paints this picture. Presidential Ballot By Ethnicity EXIT POLL DATA Among Whites Net Republican Margin (%Rep-%Dem) 2000 +13% 2004 +17% 2008 +12% 2012 +20% Among African Americans Net Republican Margin (%Rep-%Dem) 2000-81% 2004-77% 2008-91% 2012-87% Among Hispanics/Latinos Net Republican Margin (%Rep-%Dem) 2000-27% 2004-9% 2008-36% 2012-44% *Data from 2000, 2004 and 2008, 2012 Exit Poll data from the presidential elections. 24
Presidential Ballot Net Difference Among White Voters Only EXIT POLL DATA (% Republican Candidate - % Democratic Candidate) Nationally North Carolina Florida Virginia Ohio Nevada Colorado Wisconsin Iowa New Hampshire 2004 2008 2012 And, for which of the following candidates did/will you vote for President... 25
Presidential Ballot Net Difference Among Latino Voters EXIT POLL DATA 2000 2004 2008 2012 Nationally Florida Southwest Region (CO,NM,NV) 26
Another difference between 2004 and today is the margin among unmarried men and married women. Presidential Ballot Net Difference By Marital Status and Gender (POS Post Elect Data) Married Men Married Women Unmarried Men Unmarried Women 2000 2004 2008 2012 27
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2012 Congressional Ballot Overall & By Party The Republican Candidate The Democratic Candidate Total (32%) Independents (31%) (36%) Now, thinking about the elections for U.S. Congress...And, for whom will/did you vote in the election for U.S. Congress in your district? 29
2012 Congressional Ballot By Election Day Voting vs. Early Voting % Voted Election Day % Voted Early The Republican Candidate The Democratic Candidate Now, thinking about the elections for U.S. Congress...And, for whom will/did you vote in the election for U.S. Congress in your district? 30
Our post election national data shows this year was a tight race on the Congressional ballot and similar to where we were in 2000. Congressional Ballot Trend Data +1% -5% -9% -2% 49% 48% 47% 52% 51% 48% 50% 42% 2000 2004 2008 2012 The Republican Candidate The Democratic Candidate Now, thinking about the elections for U.S. Congress...And, for whom will/did you vote in the election for U.S. Congress in your district? 31
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