POWER AND THE PEOPLE A POLITICO POLL SERIES, SPONSORED BY QUALCOMM NOVEMBER 6, 200 METHODOLOGY On November 8-, Penn Schoen Berland surveyed,000 people in the U.S. with a representative distribution of Americans and 225 Washington D.C.. Margin of error is.% and 6.5% respectively.
POLITICO Baseline In general, do you believe that things in the country are headed in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track? November October September November October September Dem Rep Ind Male Right direction 28 26 27 2 27 8 4 47 45 49 47 4 2 29 27 Wrong track 59 6 6 58 6 5 54 49 49 45 9 79 62 62 57 Don't know 2 5 4 6 6 4 7 7 9 7 In general, do you believe that the economy nationwide is headed in the right direction or is it off on the wrong track? November October September November October September Dem Rep Ind Male Right direction 29 27 24 2 24 47 40 4 46 44 5 20 0 28 Wrong track 58 59 64 57 65 4 49 48 44 46 5 79 60 6 55 Don't know 4 4 2 2 0 9 0 0 4 7 9 9 8 How much do you feel the current economic downturn has affected you? November October September November October September Dem Rep Ind Male More than most Americans 22 25 2 24 27 4 4 5 8 6 25 9 22 2 22 Less than most Americans 28 27 27 26 24 75 7 74 64 74 28 0 27 0 27 About the same as others 46 46 47 48 47 20 2 20 28 20 4 48 47 42 50 Don t know 2 0 0 0 0 4 5 2 Do you think the political system in Washington D.C. is broken? November October September November October September Dem Rep Ind Male Yes, it is broken 70 74 72 72 72 67 68 62 7 64 62 80 69 75 65 No, it is not broken 4 4 5 7 5 28 0 4 2 2 0 9 5 4 Don t know 6 2 5 2 4 4 5 5 0 22 0 2 Which is closest to your views? November October September November October September Dem Rep Ind Male The Tea Party Movement is a fad - it will go away soon 29 26 28 28 26 70 67 70 60 68 4 7 26 7 22 enough I don t know what the Tea Party Movement is well 25 0 4 9 9 6 2 27 2 27 7 enough to say The Tea Party Movement will become a viable third party in 25 20 20 24 24 2 4 20 0 20 American politics Don t Know 2 20 22 7 9 8 0 2 0 9 7 27 6 25 2
Overall, how favorable are you towards the following people? Barack Obama November fav October Unfav / September Unfav / November October Sept. Dem Rep Ind 24 45/47/8 24 46/47/6 26 48/48/4 28 5/46/4 25 48/47/5 2 64/6/0 5 6/7/ 5 64/5/ 2 66//0 6 66/4/0 5 82/4/ 4 0/8/7 4 40/47/ Hillary Clinton 22 5/40/8 2 52/9/9 20 5/42/6 2 5/4/7 20 49/45/6 68//0 4 68/0/ 72/28/ 2 68/2/0 4 74/25/ 4 86// 5 22/72/6 5 47/8/4 George W. Bush 4 8/54/8 4 9/52/9 5 44/50/6 4 7/57/6 4 8/54/7 8 26/72/2 2 0/67/2 8 24/72/4 6 /68/0 7 24/74/ /79/7 5 74/2/5 6 /57/2 Sarah Palin 4 6/5/2 4 6/5/ 5 4/50/9 4 5/57/8 4 9/5/8 2 4/85/2 4 22/75/ 5/82/2 4 8/80/ 6/82/2 5 4/78/8 29 68/24/8 8 28/55/8 Joe Biden 2 8/46/7 0 7/46/6 9/46/5 0 9/45/6 0 7/49/ 9 6/7/ 8 56/42/2 20 58/9/2 20 57/9/4 2 58/40/2 27 6/24/ 8/70/ 4 7 /45/2 John McCain 4/46/0 2 44/46/ 47/44/0 4/50/0 4/48/0 7 40/59/ 9/58/ 8 4/57/ 6 42/57/ 6 9/60/ 7 25/68/8 9 70/2/7 6 6/48/6 Mike Huckabee //4 5/29/6 4 7/28/6 //6 6/29/4 29/66/5 6 0/56/4 5 2/59/0 6 /54/ 26/6/ 5/45/ 9 2 59/7/2 7 26//42 5/6/5 Rand Paul 7 20/26/55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 4 2/65/2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 9/5/56 5 0 6 8/25/57 Nancy Pelosi 6 24/52/24 7 24/52/24 7 26/48/26 7 25/50/25 5 2/52/25 42/56/ 2 40/56/ 2 42/5/5 2 44/52/4 2 45/52/ 45/2/2 2 7/77/5 8/5/2 20/49/ 6/2/5 John Boehner 6 8/25/56 5 7/22/6 5 6/20/64 4 2/2/67 4 6/2/6 4 26/60/ 4 22/58/2 5 20/58/22 4 7/55/28 8/5/57 2 4 /26/6 /56/ 4/49/ 49/2/ Mitt Romney 5 26/6/7 8 /5/5 2 4/2/4 7 29//7 9 0/5/4 5 4/60/6 5/56/0 6 4/57/8 5 4 2/60/8 2 8 4 9/9/42 8/7/4 2/2/6 Haley Barbour 4 2/8/70 4 2/7/7 4 /7/7 2 0/8/7 /9/70 6 24/45/2 8 2/40/7 4 2/42/6 4 20/5/45 8/20/7 0 6 6 2 9/9/7 4/47/2 Harry Reid 4 7/7/46 /5/5 4 4/2/54 4/5/52 5/4/5 4 40/48/2 /56/ 6 9/47/ 6 5 8/5/0 0 0/9/5 0 6/59/5 /5/52 Mitch McConnell /26/60 4/26/60 5 6/2/6 2/25/6 2 /2/64 2 20/58/22 4 2/50/27 2 9/58/2 4 Tim Pawlenty 4/20/67 4 2/7/7 5 6/5/70 /7/72 2/8/69 2 24//42 4 2/6/4 4 2/9/9 6 2/50/2 8 26/26/4 8 2 2/5/27 2 8/2/59 7 2 7/4/50 8/2/68 6 2/9/5 7 25/4/6 0/26/65 2 9/2/70 28/57/ U.S. Congress 2 2/6/6 4 2/65/ 5 25/6/4 4 24/66/9 5 25/64/ 0 25/74/ 0 22/75/2 28/70/2 2 /68/0 29/69/ 4 2 20/70/9 0 /64/22 5 6/64/2 9/2/5 Michael Steele 2 /26/62 /25/6 4/2/64 2 /25/64 /29/59 2 20/69/ 2 9/66/5 2 2/7/5 0 /74/5 2 7/2/6 7/27/66 0 9 4/27/ Tim Kaine 8/2/7 /6/7 /7/7 2 0/5/75 2 0/6/7 5/25/24 9 40/4/26 2 52/27/2 8 2 52/0/8 9/22/69 0 9/2/70 0 7/9/74 2
If Barack Obama runs for reelection in 202, in general, are you more likely to vote for President Obama or for the Republican Party s candidate for president? November October September November October September Dem Rep Ind Male The Republican Candidate 40 40 4 40 42 29 6 0 2 28 7 87 28 45 5 Barack Obama 7 9 5 8 7 58 52 55 50 56 75 4 28 2 4 Other 4 4 4 4 2 2 2 2 7 5 Don t know 20 8 9 9 8 9 9 5 4 6 6 7 9 2 If the 202 Presidential election were held today, who would you be more November October September November October September Dem Rep Ind Male Barack Obama 46 50 45 50 48 7 67 7 70 7 84 0 42 4 50 Sarah Palin 5 7 6 2 6 7 7 6 69 28 7 0 Don t know 20 5 8 7 6 4 2 0 0 22 0 2 20 If the 202 Presidential election were held today, who would you be more November October September November October September Barack Obama 40 4 8 42 9 62 57 59 57 6 79 6 7 4 Mitt Romney 2 4 8 5 6 0 2 26 5 68 25 9 25 Don t know 28 25 24 24 26 5 7 2 2 6 26 44 25 2 Dem Rep Ind Male If the 202 Presidential election were held today, who would you be more November October September November October September Dem Rep Ind Barack Obama 9 4 40 42 9 65 55 59 52 60 76 6 2 7 4 Tim Pawlenty 2 2 26 2 2 20 26 2 22 9 5 45 6 27 6 Don t know 40 8 4 5 40 5 9 9 26 22 9 49 52 6 4 Male If the 202 Presidential election were held today, who would you be more November October September October November September Dem Rep Ind Male Barack Obama 40 4 40 4 9 60 68 64 60 65 78 6 8 42 Mike Huckabee 4 5 8 5 5 29 22 25 27 2 7 7 25 9 29 Don t know 26 2 22 22 25 0 4 2 6 2 4 2 29 4
If the 202 Presidential election were held today, who would you be more November October September November October September Dem Rep Ind Male Barack Obama 40 40 8 4 9 66 56 57 56 60 77 6 2 8 4 Haley Barbour 20 9 24 2 2 20 24 2 2 9 4 4 5 25 5 Don t know 40 4 8 6 40 4 20 20 2 22 8 50 5 6 4 CURRENT EVENTS Which of these best describes how you have been following each of these events / issues? State of the U.S. economy Terrorist threats to the United States The new U.S. Congress Expiration of Bush tax cuts The beginnings of the 202 presidential campaign season Increasing violence on Pakistan / Afghanistan border November October September Closely Closely Closely / / / November October September Closely Closely Closely / / / Dem Rep Ind Male 4 82/5 44 80/7 48 82/6 N/A N/A 57 96/0 70 98/ 67 97/ N/A N/A 42 86/ 45 84/ 6 75/2 5 89/9 2 76/2 28 70/26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 46 88/ N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 26 7/25 5 75/22 2 64/0 78/20 2 6/ 25 60/5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 46 95/5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 25 57/7 0 7/26 9 5/42 2 68/29 8 52/4 24 55/40 24 5/40 2 55/4 8 47/47 4 84/6 7 78/2 40 79/20 68/ 22 52/4 29 6/4 2 5/44 0 65/ 8 45/49 8 49/47 4 4/54 N/A N/A N/A N/A 25 65/4 7 57/4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 20 54/42 24 55/4 8/54 2 54/42 4 44/50 6 54/4 6 55/40 N/A N/A N/A N/A 27 7/28 0 76/2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 9 55/40 7 58/8 48/46 9 60/6 2 47/46 Closely / Closely / 5
TOPIC INVESTIGATION MIDTERM ELECTIONS AND BEYOND Did the 200 midterm election results make you more hopeful or less hopeful of the direction of the government? Dem Rep Ind Male More hopeful 6 29 7 69 2 4 Less hopeful 29 56 5 9 24 29 0 No change 25 4 22 6 6 2 26 Don t know 0 8 6 7 7 4 How much did President Obama s job performance affect the way you voted on November 2nd? Dem Rep Ind Male Strong impact on my vote 26 9 56 25 8 28 Some impact on my vote 24 0 20 2 22 25 No impact on my vote 4 4 44 20 7 5 Don t know 9 7 4 7 7 2 Which of these messages do you think voters were sending on November 2nd? Dem Rep Ind Male Disapproval of Washington D.C. as a whole 6 6 6 5 7 8 4 Disapproval of President Obama 22 4 4 2 20 25 9 Disapproval of Congressional Democrats 0 4 2 2 7 0 Embracing the Republican agenda 7 6 4 8 5 Embracing Republican candidates 4 4 6 4 Don t know 2 6 24 8 5 27 6
The recent midterm election is being called a referendum on Obama in the news and media. Which of these best describes the message you think voters were trying to send to him? Dem Rep Ind Male Focus more on job creation 26 7 0 2 27 27 25 Repeal health care reform 8 5 5 24 4 9 6 Concern over the expansion of government 4 25 8 2 4 4 4 Focus more on reducing the deficit 2 8 4 9 0 I don t think it was a referendum on Obama 2 22 5 7 Don t know 9 9 4 24 4 24 Do you think President Obama understands the message that was sent on Nov. 2nd? Dem Rep Ind Male Yes 40 49 6 24 2 4 40 No 4 4 58 42 28 Don t know 25 8 2 8 5 7 2 What sort of changes, if any, do you think President Obama will make to his administration? Dem Rep Ind Male Major changes 5 7 26 7 2 9 2 Minor changes 7 67 44 0 7 6 8 No real changes 4 2 6 54 6 Don t know 4 5 4 0 7 9 8 7
Which of the following actions by President Obama would do most to make your views of him more positive? Dem Rep Ind Male Hold firm on achieving his original agenda 26 9 0 26 24 27 Changes to the Obama administration agenda 22 24 0 6 2 29 6 Increased outreach and compromise with Republicans 2 7 9 29 7 2 20 A White House staff shake-up 9 2 8 7 8 9 Don t know 22 6 2 6 29 6 28 Do you think President Obama will be re-elected in 202? Dem Rep Ind Male Yes 26 49 50 6 20 27 25 No 50 2 22 85 45 54 46 Don t know 25 28 29 9 5 9 29 Which issue should the new Congress tackle first? Dem Rep Ind Male Work to reduce the deficit 6 46 40 0 8 9 Repeal health care reform 29 5 2 27 Pass another stimulus bill 4 7 24 7 2 6 Pass energy policy legislation 4 6 5 2 6 5 4 Don t know 6 7 8 8 22 9 Now that Republicans have gained the majority in the House of Representatives, how effective will they be in implementing their agenda? Dem Rep Ind Male effective 2 5 7 4 8 Somewhat effective 5 28 26 54 27 8 very effective 22 47 25 5 27 26 9 effective at all 2 2 9 4 4 9 Don t know 20 2 9 2 28 26 8
Do you think the elected Tea Party candidates have enough influence to change Washington? Dem Rep Ind Male Yes 6 0 2 27 9 8 4 No 49 79 58 8 49 55 4 Don t know 5 0 29 5 42 27 4 Do you think the elected Tea Party candidates will hurt or help Congressional Republicans? Dem Rep Ind Male Help Congressional Republicans 29 9 20 5 8 7 22 Hurt Congressional Republicans 28 68 46 2 24 29 27 Don t know 4 4 4 7 58 4 5 In your view, were campaigns in the 200 election cycle more or less negative than past election cycles? Dem Rep Ind Male More negative 6 68 6 60 60 6 58 Less negative 5 2 5 22 9 5 6 Don t know 24 20 22 8 2 26 In their Washington rallies, Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert said the media is largely to blame for the incivility in politics. Do you agree or disagree? Dem Rep Ind Male Agree 49 6 58 44 45 54 45 Disagree 22 28 4 2 9 24 9 Don t know 29 9 28 24 5 22 6 Do you think Sarah Palin is a breath of fresh air or a negative influence in national politics? Dem Rep Ind Male Negative influence 50 77 78 20 48 48 5 Breath of fresh air 28 4 0 52 25 5 22 Don t know 22 9 2 28 27 7 26 9