Could It Happen Here? Canada in the Age of Trump and Brexit Michael Adams President The Environics Institute for Survey Research 1
Q: What exactly is it? A) Xenophobia B) Populist backlash C) Unprecedented income inequality D) Class resentment E) Erosion of democratic rules and norms F) All the above
The story of Could It Happen Here? begins on the evening of November 8 th, 2016 CLINTON 232 TRUMP 306
Back in the mid 1930 s, novelist Sinclair Lewis thought it could happen in America during the Great Depression
In today s world, on stage right we have, inter alia Viktor Orban Donald Trump Geert Wilders Marine Le Pen Norbert Hofer Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
And on the center-left we have... Justin Trudeau Emmanuel Macron Angela Merkel Jeremy Corbyn Bernie Sanders
And on the right in Canada we have recently seen the likes of... Mario Dumont Pauline Marois Stephen Harper Rob Ford Kellie Leitch Kevin O Leary
Let s turn the clock back and reflect on how our world has evolved since the end of the Cold War 8
With the collapse of European communism in 89-91, the dominance of democratic capitalism seemed inevitable to some
But then the former Yugoslavia imploded in ethnic and sectarian bloodshed
Followed by the shock of 9/11
And more recently the implosion of Syria and the rise of ISIS
Turmoil in the Middle East and Africa has led to massive dislocation and migration of refugees into Europe
Including baby Aylan Kurdi, who s death moved the hearts and minds of Canadians
Rekindling the spirit that inspired Canada to welcome 60,000 boat people in the late 1970 s
Meanwhile in Europe, the influx of refugees contributes to the rise of xenophobic nationalism across the continent
...as well as intolerance: don t wear too many clothes on our beaches ladies!
Then, in the US, Republican presidential candidate, Donald Trump, taps into growing xenophobic populism by... Calling Mexicans rapists Promising a wall along the US-Mexico border Calling for a complete ban on Muslims entering the US Calling for the arrest of undocumented immigrants Promising to shut down Obama s Dreamer program
Exploiting the value divide between America s two seemingly irreconcilable political tribes, as revealed in Environics 2016 US social values survey Top Values of Republicans Xenophobia Status & Security Active Government Exclusion & Intensity Traditional Family Joy of Consumption AUTHORITY Duty Religiosity Obedience to Authority Cultural Assimilation Parochialism Multiculturalism Global Consciousness Authenticity National Pride & Responsibility Ethical Consumerism Idealism & Autonomy Ecological Concern FULFILMENT Top Values of Democrats Flexible Families INDIVIDUALITY
But Canada is no stranger to xenophobia 1600s today: Long assault on Indigenous Peoples 1800s: Poor treatment of Irish migrants 1867 1967: Racist immigration policies 1930s: Anti-semitism ( None is too many ) 1940s: Internment of Japanese Canadians More recently: Police profiling of racialised minorities
And our racist policies reflected public opinion of the times 1946 If Canada does allow more immigration, are there any of these nationalities which you would like to keep out? 60 49 34 33 31 25 24 Japaneese Jewish German Russian Negro Italian Chinese Canadian Institute for Public Opinion (Gallup)
Even in the early 1960s 1961 As you know, Canada restricts the admission of non-whites to this country. Do you think this should continue, or do you think there should be fewer restrictions on non-whites? Restrictions should continue 53 Should be fewer restrictions 36 Qualified / No opinion 11 Canadian Institute for Public Opinion (Gallup)
However, the mid 1960 s ushered in more progressive principles and policies reflecting the rapid evolution of Canadian values 1967: Opening the door to point-based/colour blind immigration 1971: Canada becomes the first country to adopt Multiculturalism as an official policy, reinforced by the Canadian Multiculturalism Act in 1988 Late 1970 s: Accepting 60,000 refugees from South-East Asia 2015: Truth and Reconciliation report and calls to action 2015/16: Welcoming over 40,000 Syrian refugees
But do average Canadians truly support immigration and the ideology of multiculturalism? 24
First off, the plurality thinks multiculturalism and diversity makes Canada unique What makes Canada unique? (unprompted mentions) Multiculturalism/diversity 43 Land/geography 17 Freedom/free country/democracy 14 Friendly/humble/nice people The people (non-specific) 11 10 Weather/climate/cold 7 Peace/peacefulness 7 Bilingualism 3 Natural resources 6 Aboriginal peoples/culture 2 Universal health care 6 Hockey 1 Political system 5 The North/Arctic 1 Tolerence 4 Other 9 Values 3 dk/na 7 Focus Canada (2016)
And Canadians now disagree that immigration levels are too high 1977 2017 Immigration levels are too high 61 62 35 35 Agree Disagree 77 80 83 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 97 98 00 02 03 05 06 08 10 11 12 15 16 17 Focus Canada (2017)
With the vast majority continuing to believe that the economic impact of immigrants is positive 1993-2017 Economic impact of immigration is positive 78 56 39 Agree Disagree 20 93 98 00 02 03 05 06 08 10 11 12 15 16 17 Focus Canada (2017)
And a strong majority consistently reject the idea that immigrants take away jobs from other Canadians 1985-2015 Immigrants take away Canadian jobs 54 67 36 30 Agree Disagree 85 89 93 94 97 98 00 02 03 05 06 08 10 11 12 15 Focus Canada (2015)
For the first time in 30 years, the plurality of Canadians now disagree that many refugee claimants are not legitimate 1987-2017 79 Many refugee claimants are not legitimate Agree Disagree dk/na 49 40 13 10 8 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 97 98 00 02 03 05 06 08 10 11 12 15 16 17 Focus Canada (2017)
As for immigrants, the vast majority identify more with Canada than their country of birth
Members of the rapidly growing Muslim community are even more proud to be Canadian than non-muslims 2006-2016 Very proud to be Canadian 2006 2016 73 83 77 78 83 85 90 2006 2016 74 73 47 TOTAL Quebec Ontario West TOTAL MUSLIMS NON-MUSLIMS Survey of Muslims in Canada (2016)
Finally, Native-born Canadians and immigrants both agree on the values that immigrants should adopt 2011 What values are most important for immigrants to adopt? (unprompted mentions) Respect for Canada's history and culture English and/or French fluency 29 27 28 25 Tolerance for others 21 18 Respect for the law 16 21 Respect for other religions 5 10 Need to assimilate 8 9 Immigrants Native-born Trudeau Foundation Survey (2011)
But do all these tolerant attitudes translate into behaviour? 33
Percent Canadian Citizens Unlike elsewhere, most immigrants become citizens Period of immigration
Even more remarkable is that in 2015 Canadians elected 46 foreign-born MPs, up from 42 in 2011 2015 Elections number of foreign-born elected MP s, by party 184 99 44 9 2 34 10 0 2 1
Immigrants matter: 12 of Canada s largest urban areas are made up of at least 1 in 5 foreign-born % immigrants of total population, 2011 Toronto Vancouver Calgary Hamilton 26 24 40 46 Windsor Canada Winnipeg 22 21 21 Abbotsford-Mission 23 Edmonton 20 Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo 23 Guelph 20 Montréal 23 Ottawa-Gatineau 19 Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey
From the RCMP to 24 Sussex: how soon before Canada s prime Minister sports a Turban (and totes a kirpan)?
However, the majority (albeit a declining proportion) of Canadians believe that too many immigrants do not adopt Canadian values 1993-2017 Too many immigrants do not adopt Canadian values 72 Agree Disagree 54 42 23 93 94 97 99 00 02 03 05 06 08 10 11 12 15 16 17 Focus Canada (2017)
And no Canadian value is more important than gender equality, including religious tolerance Canada should be a country In which men and women are treated equally in all walks of life 92 7 1 Where the practices of all religions are respected, provided they fall within the law 67 23 9 Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat/strongly disagree Trudeau Foundation Survey (2012)
Lest we forget our recent history 40
The early Reform Party tapped into the Eastern establishment's progressive liberalism by giving voice to......opposition to relentless efforts to accommodate Quebec, increasing immigration and the ideology of multiculturalism
Mike Harris s 1995 Common Sense Revolution was the first backlash against tax and spend government in Ontario
Stephen Harper s war on data led chief statistician, Munir Sheikh, to resign on July 21st, 2010
And his government s tough on crime agenda exploited anxiety about rising crime and lenient treatment of criminals We're not governing on the basis of the latest statistics" - Justice Minister Rob Nicholson, Dec 1 st, 2011
In 2015, Harper insists Muslim women show their face at citizenship ceremonies, however......zunera Ishaq asserts her Charter rights in court (and wins)
And in 2016, Kellie Leitch, co-author of the barbaric cultural practices snitch line, launches her bid for the Conservative party leadership If you are tired of feeling like we can t discuss what our Canadian values are, then please help me to fight back by making a donation. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4mshdzo-gq4
And sometimes, Canada endures its own form of terrorism and hate crime 47
Toronto 18 ring leader, Zakaria Amara, is convicted of terrorism on Jan 18 th, 2010
And on January 29 th 2016, Alexandre Bissonnette kills 6 Muslim worshippers in Quebec City
So while Canada is not immune to xenophobia, what is it that protects us from a populist tsunami? 50
Lets start by by looking at at the the evolving structure structure of authority of authority in the in the family... family...the cradle of our values Father of the family must be master in his own house USA Canada 42 42 25 25 44 20 44 48 20 18 52 48 21 18 47 41 52 23 24 21 41 50 23 24 1992 1996 2000 2004 2007 2012 2016
And in the country that celebrates difference, there is a national consensus on patriarchy...unlike in the US Agree: Father of the family must be master in his own house, 2016
Aside from gender equality, the most remarkable evolution of Canadian social values is the acceptance of same sex unions Society should regard people of the same sex who live together as being the same as a married couple - 1992-2016 73 35 1992 2000 2004 2008 2014 2016 Environics Research Canadian Social Values (2016)
And sometimes we go beyond tolerance of the other: mixed race unions are becoming more commonplace % of couples in mixed unions in Canada - 2011 Proportion of individuals in mixed unions - Visible Minority Group, Canada, 2011, 04.6% Japanese Latin American 48% 79% Black 40% Filipino 30% Arab Korean Southeast Asian West Asian 25% 23% 22% 20% Chinese 19% South Asian 13% Statistics Canada, National Household Survey, 2011
And surprisingly, the great white north is more urban than the American republic % or total population living in... 31% United States Canada 16% 5% 8% Top 3 Cities Top 10 Cities U.S. Census Bureau estimates, 2016 Census
And when you look at cities and suburbs (CMAs) together, the contrast is stark, with huge political implications % total population living in... 55% United States Canada 36% 27% 13% Top 3 CMAs Top 10 CMAs U.S. Census Bureau estimates, 2016 Census
Why cities matter More diversity More cosmopolitan Better educated More youthful More reliant on public infrastructure and services More creative More open More tolerant
58 So, could it happen here?
www.environicsinstitute.org @Environics_Inst