Page 1 of 5 June 2006 Social Weather Survey: NO VOTE IN CHA-CHA PLEBISCITE RISES TO 67%; ONLY 6.8% HAVE SIGNED AN INITIATIVE-PETITION Mahar Mangahas Social Weather Stations The Social Weather Survey of June 22-28, 2006 finds that those intending to vote No, if a plebiscite to approve constitutional amendments were held today, have grown to a solid majority of 67% of all Filipino adults, compared to a small majority of 56% in the previous SWS national survey of March 8-14, 2006. Among those surveyed, only 15% had been approached to sign a petition favoring constitutional amendments. Among them there were 6.8 percentage points who signed, 7.2 percentage points who did not sign, and a one-point balance who would not say if they signed or not. [Table 1] Below the required 12% The roughly 7% proportion of signatories in the survey, as well as the total of 8% in case the No-Answers are assumed to be signatories also, are statistically below the constitutional minimum requirement of 12% of the national electorate in order for an amendment to be directly proposed by popular initiative. Six of every ten of those approached on a petition said that they were not shown the amendments which they were asked to sign. Less than half of those who signed, and one-fourth of those who did not sign although approached to do so, were shown amendments to read. [Table 2] No leads in all areas Those saying they will vote No in a plebiscite for a new constitution described as what the President wants ( sa bagong Konstitusyon na gusto ng Pangulo ) are 83% in Metro Manila, 64% in the Balance of Luzon, 60% in the Visayas, and 68% in Mindanao. [Table 3] The No vote is 60% in the middle-to-upper ABC classes, 68% in the masa or D class, and 66% in the very poor E class.
Page 2 of 5 Even among those who said they signed a petition, the No vote outscores the Yes vote by 48% to 46%, with the balance saying Don t Know/No Answer. Among those who were approached to sign a petition but did not do so, 84% said they would vote No. Distribution of the petition The movement for the petition appears strongest in the Visayas, where 21% of the respondents said that their signatures were solicited. The solicitation rate was 16% in both Mindanao and Metro Manila, and 12% in the Balance of Luzon. Among those solicited, the rate of signing was 51% in Mindanao, 46% in the Visayas, 43% in Metro Manila, and 41% in the Balance of Luzon. Relevance of Presidential performance Public opinion about the performance of the President is relevant, but is not a deciding factor, in the dominance of the No vote in case of a plebiscite on constitutional amendments. The No vote in the SWS survey got 54% from those satisfied, 67% from those neither satisfied nor dissatisfied, and 76% from those dissatisfied, with the President. [Table 4] The Yes vote has a majority only among those few (9%) who are Very Satisfied with the President. It is a minority among those who are Somewhat Satisfied with her. Mixed feelings about Comelec As of June 2006, feelings about the Commission on Elections are still mixed, with 34% of those surveyed agreeing, versus 37% disagreeing, that The Comelec can be trusted to honestly count the votes of the people in a plebiscite to ratify a new Constitution. [Table 5] This is statistically unchanged from the March 2006 SWS survey s finding of 30% agreeing and 34% disagreeing with the same statement. Survey background The Social Weather Survey for the Second Quarter of 2006 was done over June 22 to 28, 2006, using face-to-face interviews of 1,200 adults divided into random samples of 300 each in Metro Manila, the Balance of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao (sampling error margins of ±3% for national percentages and ±6% for area percentages). The area estimates were weighted by National Statistics Office medium-population projections for 2006 to obtain the national estimates.
Page 3 of 5 The survey items on charter change were not commissioned, but were done on SWS's own initiative and are being released immediately as a public service. The Social Weather Surveys are supported by subscribers, who have no proprietary rights over non-commissioned data. # Table 1. HAVE YOU BEEN APPROACHED BY ANY GROUP TO SIGN A PETITION FAVORING SOME AMENDMENTS TO THE CONSTITUTION? DID YOU SIGN IT OR NOT? Philippines, June 2006 In percent In millions Was approached 15 7.8 Signed petition 6.8 3.5 Did not sign 7.2 3.7 No answer 1.2 0.6 Was not approached 85 43.5 TOTAL ADULTS 100 51.3 Q99. Kayo po ba ay nilapitan ng kahit na anong grupo upang pumirma sa isang petisyon na PABOR sa ilang pagbabago sa Konstitusyon? Kayo po ba ay pumirma o hindi?
Page 4 of 5 Table 2. IF APPROACHED: WERE YOU SHOWN THE EXACT AMENDMENTS THEY FAVOR, FOR YOU TO READ? Philippines, June 2006 YES, NO, shown not shown Base: Those Approached (15%) 37% 59% Base: Those Who Signed (6.8%) 45 54 Base: Those Who Did Not Sign (7.2%) 26 66 Q100. KUNG NILAPITAN: Pinakita po ba nila sa inyo ang eksaktong mga pagbabago na kanilang pinapaboran, para mabasa ninyo? Table 3. IF A PLEBISCITE WERE HELD TODAY, WOULD YOU VOTE YES OR NO TO A NEW CONSTITUTION THAT PGMA WANTS? By Area and Class, June 2006 YES NO TOTAL ADULTS (100%) 27% 67% Area NCR 13 83 Bal. Luzon 27 64 Visayas 35 60 Mindanao 29 68 Class ABC 29 60 D 26 68 E 30 66
Page 5 of 5 Table 4. IF A PLEBISCITE WERE HELD TODAY, WOULD YOU VOTE YES OR NO TO A NEW CONSTITUTION THAT PGMA WANTS? Philippines, June 2006 YES NO TOTAL ADULTS (100%) 27% 67% Base: Those Who Signed (6.8%) 46% 48% Base: Those Approached, But Who Did Not Sign (7.2%) 15% 84% Base: Those NOT Approached (85%) 27% 67% Base: Those SATISFIED with GMA (34%) 41% 54% Base: Those UNDECIDED about GMA (17%) 24% 67% Base: Those DISSATISFIED with GMA (48%) 19% 76% Q101. Kung gaganapin po ngayon ang plebisito para sa pag-apruba ng isang panukalang bagong Konstitusyon na gusto ni Pangulong Arroyo, kayo po ba ay boboto ng OO SA BAGONG KONSTITUSYON NA GUSTO NG PANGULO o kayo po ba ay boboto ng HINDI SA BAGONG KONSTITUSYON NA GUSTO NG PANGULO? [OO SA BAGONG KONSTITUSYON NA GUSTO NI PGMA, HINDI SA BAGONG KONSTITUSYON NA GUSTO NI PGMA ] Table 5. CONFIDENCE IN COMELEC TO HONESTLY COUNT VOTES IN A PLEBISCITE TO RATIFY A NEW CONSTITUTION, March and June 2006 Test Statement: The COMELEC can be trusted to honestly count the votes of the people in a plebiscite to ratify a new Constitution. Mar 06 Jun 06 AGREE 30% 34% UNDECIDED 32 28 DISAGREE 34 37 Net* -4-3 * Net agreement = % Agree minus % Disagree correctly rounded. Don t Know and Refused responses are not shown. Q83. Gaano po kayo sumasang-ayon o hindi sumasang-ayon sa pangungusap na ito ANG COMELEC AY MAPAGKAKATIWALAAN PA RIN NA MATAPAT NA BIBILANGIN ANG BOTO SA ISANG PLEBISITO PARA I- RATIFY ANG ISANG BAGONG KONSTITUSYON.