Demographic Change How the US is Coping with Aging, Immigration, and Other Challenges William H. Frey Brookings Institution University of Michigan www.frey-demographer.org
US: Total and Age 65+ Growth, 1970-2030 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1970-80 1980-90 1990-00 2000-10 2010-20 2020-30 Total Age 65+ Source: William H. Frey analysis
US Immigrant Population, 1970-2005 millions 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 Source: William H. Frey analysis
Growing New Minorities, 2000-30 Share of Population 25 20 15 10 5 0 Hispanics Asians Source: William H. Frey analysis 2000 2010 2020 2030
Total Fertility Rate United States 2.05 France 1.89 United Kingdom 1.82 Italy 1.38 Germany 1.36 Japan 1.27 Source: United Nations
Life Expectancy Japan 82.6 France 80.7 Italy 80.5 Germany 79.4 United Kingdom 79.4 United States 78.2 Source: United Nations
Immigration Rate (per 1000) United States 3.9 Italy 2.6 United Kingdom 2.1 Germany 1.8 France 1.6 Japan 0.4 Source: United Nations
Projected Growth, 2006-2050 United States 40% United Kingdom 14% France 5% Italy -5% Germany -9% Japan -21% Source: United Nations
Percent Aged 65+ Japan 20% Germany 19% Italy 19% France 16% United Kingdom 16% United States 12% Source: United Nations
Population Growth 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0 1950-1955 1955-1960 1960-1965 1965-1970 1970-1975 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 2040-2045 2045-2050 Source: United Nations US Japan
Labor Force Growth 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0-5.0-10.0 2030-2035 1950-1955 1955-1960 1960-1965 1965-1970 1970-1975 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2035-2040 2040-2045 2045-2050 US Japan Source: United Nations
Age Dependency 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Persons age 65+ per 100 persons age 16-64 US Japan Source: United Nations 1950-1960- 1970-1980- 1990-2000- 2010-2020- 2030-2040- 2050-
US Growth by Age 2000-10 60 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20 49 19 16 14 10 3 4-9 0-5 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Source: William H. Frey
Population Changes in the Next 3 Decades 12,000 Young Elderly Old Elderly (65-74) (75 +) 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Frey Source: William H. Frey 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030
Population Changes in the Next 3 Decades 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0-2,000-4,000-6,000-8,000 Empty Nesters Pre-Elderly (45-54) (55-64) Frey Source: William H. Frey 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030
Source: William H. Frey Boomers vs. Parents at Midlife % With 3+ Kids 30% 55% % Not Married 21% 36% %Women Not Working 23% 50% % HS Dropout 14% 38% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Boomers Parents
Source: William H. Frey analysis Household Types: Older Age Groups 100% 80% 52.1 60% 40% 20% 37.2 20.7 0% Age 65-74 Age 75-84 Age 85+ Female Head NonFamilies Male Head NonFamilies Female Head Families Male Head Families Married Couples
Growth by Age, 2000-10 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Under 25 25-44 45-64 65+ 0-10 California Nevada Michigan Source: William Frey,
2000-10 Growth: Under Age 35 Source: William H. Frey GT 7% 1% - 7% LT 1%
Percent 65+ population for States, 2005 Source: William H. Frey analysis 13.4% & above 12% -13% 11% -11.9% under 12%
Rates of Migration by Age 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 <5 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ Per 100 Source: William H. Frey analysis
Source: William H. Frey analysis Arizona Projections: Aging in Place and Migration 25 20 percent growth 15 10 5 0-5 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 2025-30 2030-35 2035-40 Aging in Place Net Migration
Source: William H. Frey analysis New York Projections: Aging in Place and Migration 25 20 percent growth 15 10 5 0-5 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 2025-30 2030-35 2035-40 Aging in Place Net Migration
US Federal Budget Allocation as Percent of Projected Federal Revenue 200 180 160 60 140 120 55 100 67 80 56 60 121 40 91 56 61 20 0 2006 2010 2020 2030 Health Care and Social Security All Other Expenditures Source: Dowell Myers, Boomers and Seniors
Immigrants in the US, 1900-2005 40 35 30 25 in millions 35.1 20 15 10 5 14.2 9.6 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 Source: William H. Frey, Brookings Institution
Immigrant Share of US Population 16 14 12 10 8 6 14.7 12.1 4 2 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 4.7 Source: US Census sources
Types of US Foreign Born, 2005 Legal Temporary 3% Undocumented 30% Legal Permanent 67% Source: Jeffrey Passel, Pew Hispanic Center
Legal Permanent Immigrants, 2003-05 Other 17% Employment 19% FamilyTies 64% Source: Population Reference Bureau
Source: Population Reference Bureau, Pew Hispanic Center Immigrant Origins 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Legal Undocumented Other Asia Latin America
Education: Immigrants vs Natives 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 >8 Grade 9-12 Grade HS Diploma Some College College Diploma Post College foreign born Source: Congressional Budget Office Analysis native born
Immigrant Education: Mexican vs. Other Origins 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 >8 Grade 9-12 Grade HS Diploma Some College College Diploma Post College Mexican Rest of World Source: Congressional Budget Office Analysis
Hispanics: Less than High School 60.0% 54% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 32% 15% 0.0% Ist Generation 2nd Generation Total US Source: William H. Frey analysis
Hispanics: College Graduates 30.0% 28% 25.0% 20.0% 18% 15.0% 10.0% 10% 5.0% 0.0% Ist Generation 2nd Generation Total US Source: William H. Frey analysis
Asians: College Graduates 60.0% 50.0% 51% 53% 40.0% 30.0% 28% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Ist Generation 2nd Generation Total US Source: William H. Frey analysis
Most Prevalent Jobs Native Born Foreign Born Admin Support Management Sales Education Production Construction Admin Support Sales Source: Congressional Budget Office
Immigrants - Prevalent Jobs Mexican Rest of World Construction Production Maintenance Transportation Sales Admin Support Management Production Source: Congressional Budget Office
Undocumented Prevalent Jobs Cooks Construction Maids/Housekeeping Maintenance Agriculture Source: Jeffrey Passel, Pew Hispanic Center
Long Term Fiscal Impact of One Migrant $150 $100 $76 US dollars $82 $105 $93 $50 $0 -$50 -$30 -$100 -$89 Not High School High School Some College Immigrant Descendent Source: Population Reference Bureau
Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census Immigrant Magnet States
State Immigrant Growth, 1990-2005 Source: William H. Frey 200% or more growth Btn 100% and 199% growth Traditional immigrant gateway All other states
Source: William H. Frey Immigrants vs Natives: 2005 Poverty and Near Poverty** Hispanics: Poverty and Near Poverty Blue Collar Workers* Hispanics: Blue Collar Workers 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Immigrants in New Destinations. Immigrants in Traditional Magnets US Native Born
Where Undocumented Dominate Foreign Born Source: Jeffery Passel, Pew Hispanic Center GT 40% Other
Desired US Immigration Levels 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 33.6 29.3 14.1 47.1 7.8 56.8 5.2 6.2 Traditional Magnet States New Destination States Present Increased Decreased Don't Know Source: William H. Frey analysis of CBS News Poll, July 29-Aug 2, 2005
3 Year Work Permits for Illegal Immigrants? 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 39.1 54.5 24.7 71.9 6.4 3.4 Traditional Magnet States New Destination States Allowed Not Allowed Don't Know Source: William H. Frey analysis of CBS News Poll, July 29-Aug 2, 2005
US Race-Ethnicity 4.4 1.5 0.6 14.4 12.1 67.1 White Black Asian Am Indian Mixed Race Hispanic Source: William H. Frey, Brookings Institution
Natives and Recent Immigrants 1.0 Native Born 7.3 Recent Foreign Born 55.8 15.9 76.3 20.4 White Black Asian Am Indian Mixed Race Hispanic Source: William H. Frey, Brookings Institution
US: Population by Race: 2000 and 2050 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 50.1% White Black 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 69.1% 2000 2050 Asian Hispani c Source: William H. Frey, Brookings Institution
Source: William H. Frey New Demographic Regions Melting Pot America The New Sunbelt The Heartland
New Sunbelt, Melting Pot, and Heartland States Source: William H. Frey New Sunbelt Melting Pot Heartland States
Source: William Frey Demographic Components, 2000-2005 2005 (Rates per 1000) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 32.7 28.3 19.5 10.1-6.6-8.1 Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland Immigratio n Domestic Migration
Race Composition of Regions Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland 26% 10% 3% 2% 12% 2% 2% 4% 15% 2% 54% 7% 70% 11% 80% White Black Asian Other Hispanic Source: William H. Frey
Hispanic Concentrations, 2005 Percent of County Population 25% and above 10.0% to 24.9% 5.0 to 9.9% Under 5% Data source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates
White Concentrations, 2005 Percent of County Population 95% and above 85.0% to 94.9% 70.0% to 84.9% Under 70% Data source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates
Children Speaking Spanish at Home Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census 20% and Over 10% to 20% 5% to 10% Under 5%
Race Profiles for Occupations Los Angeles Professional & Mgrs Clerical & Sales Skilled Blue Collar Unskilled & Services White Black Indian Asian Hispanic Source: William Frey. Milken Institute
Source: William H. Frey analysis Race for Age Groups: US 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 57.6 61.4 Age Under 15 73.2 81.5 Age 15-39 Age 40-64 Age 65+ White Black Asian Other Hispanic
Source: William H. Frey analysis Race for Age Groups: California 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 31.8 36.7 Age Under 15 53.5 65.2 Age 15-39 Age 40-64 Age 65+ White Black Asian Other Hispanic
Source: William H.Frey Hispanics: 2004 Total vs Voter Shares 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 45 34 37 22 33 16 29 12 23 20 19 10 9 10 Total Voters 0 New Mexico Texas California Arizona Nevada Colorado Florida
United States Projected Race Compositions, 2025 Under Age 18 Age 18-64 Age 65+ 52 % 62 % 76 % white black Indian Asian Hispanic Source: William H. Frey, Brookings Institution