Whakapakari: Tatauranga Taupori Number 1 1998 ISBN 478 9136 2 Towards 2 INTRODUCTION Following World War II, fertility rose and continued at a high level for the next two decades. Over the same period, mortality declined steadily and, as a result, the size of the population increased rapidly. Rapid growth brought with it a youthful age profile. In addition to an acceleration in the rate of population growth, migration from rural to urban areas gathered pace largely as a result of government policies. By the early 197s, the population had transformed from a rural-based population to an urban-based population. While 75% of the population lived in rural areas in the 194s, this had reduced to 3% by the early 197s. By the mid 197s, fertility was already in a state of rapid decline. In spite of improving life expectancy, brought about mainly by falling infant mortality, population growth slowed and the median age of the population rose. population growth continued to slow during the 198s and early 199s. This was partly due to increased external migration. At the same time, family structures and household income patterns were also changing. Over this decade, the proportion of one-parent families doubled and disparities between and non- household income widened. In contrast to the low population growth experienced during the 198s and early 199s, the growth in the size of the population between 1991 and was much higher than expected. External migration patterns had changed and fewer were leaving the country. Instead a distinct pattern of internal migration emerged with some beginning to move from urban to more rural areas. This report analyses changes in the size and composition of the population over the past two decades. It shows that the demographic profile of the population differs from that of the non- population in respect of age, geographic location, patterns of family formation, and socio-economic status. These demographic differences, and their implications, need to be understood and taken into account if government policies and programmes are to be effective for. THE WHAKAPAKARI SERIES As a part of its strategic direction to the year 2, the Government expects to make significant progress towards social and economic parity between and non-. All government agencies are required, as part of their core business, to develop policies, and processes that contribute to this objective. Education, training, employment, criminal justice, and health are the Strategic Result Areas for 1997-2 where the Government is expecting to see the greatest improvement. Under the Ministry of Development Act (1991), the Ministry is required to monitor the adequacy of services being provided to or for. As part of this role, the Ministry draws on official statistics to document and analyse trends in the relative economic and social position of on a sector by sector basis. The Whakapakari series is a collection of reports that examine economic and social advancement. The reports provide iwi, hapù,, and the public generally with the results from the Ministry s monitoring of progress made towards Government objectives for. The series intends to inform the development of policy in mainstream agencies and raise the level of public awareness and debate on economic opportunity and social outcomes for. In the first instance, Whakapakari reports will be produced for the employment, education, and health sectors. It is expected that the range of sectors included in the series will expand in the future.
This report is largely based on data from various New Zealand censuses of population and dwellings. The census is undertaken every five years by Statistics New Zealand. The latest census was conducted in. Other information produced by Statistics New Zealand is also used in this analysis (such as population projections, fertility data, and life expectancy data). A summary of the key findings and a glossary are provided at the end of this report. POPULATION GROWTH Since the 194s, the population has been growing at a faster pace than the non- population. The average annual growth rate for peaked at 4% during the 1956 to 1966 decade. Growth for both populations slowed from the early 197s through to the late 198s, with rates plummeting to 1.3% per year for and.5% per year for non- during the 1976 to 1986 decade. Official population projections produced in the early 199s, 1 suggested that the population would increase from 435, in 1991 to 476, in and 672, by 231. Based on these projections, the population was not expected to reach 15% of the total population until 231. Number 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Figure 1 Actual and Projected Population 1936-231 1936 1946 1951 1956 1961 Source: Statistics New Zealand 1993, 1997a, 1998a Note: All numbers in this graph are based on the ethnic group population. Projected figures use the Census as the base population. 1966 Actual 1971 1976 1981 1986 Year 1991 21 Projected Population 1991 Difference Sole 323,998 273,693-5,35 Mixed 111,621 25,338 +138,717 Total ethnic group 435,619 524,31 +88,412 Source: Statistics New Zealand 1993, 1997a 26 Table 1 Growth in the Population 1991 and 211 216 221 226 231 2 However, as Figure 1 shows, the actual rate of growth over this period was much higher than expected with the population increasing to 524, in (15% of the total population). The most recent figures project continued growth of the population to number 855, by the year 231 (19% of the total population) (Statistics New Zealand 1998a). Table 1 shows that the gains to the population 2 over the 1991 to period occurred as a result of growth in the mixed population (those people who identified as and at least one other ethnicity). During this time, the sole population (those who identified as only), declined by 15%. Why the growth in the population is higher than expected is not yet clear. However, preliminary investigations by Statistics New Zealand indicate that it may be a reflection of the following factors: an increase in inter-ethnic mobility, that is, people who previously identified as non- now identifying as (Statistics New Zealand 1997c); and 1 Statistics New Zealand (1994a) unpublished data. These projections used 1991 population data as the population base. 2 Refers to the ethnic group population, encompassing those who identify as only, but also those who identify as and other ethnicities. Table 2 Ancestry Population by Ethnic Group 1991 and Ethnic Group Ancestry Population 1991 Sole 56.7% 44.4% Mixed 2.1% 39.5% non- 23.1% 15.2% Total percent 1.% 1.% Number 511,278 579,714 Percent of population 15.1% 16.% with ancestry Source:Statistics New Zealand 1997a, Khawaja et al. 1993 Note: Due to rounding percentages do not add exactly to 1. Some non- claim ancestry. Table 3 Percent of Ancestry Population Not Stating Iwi Affiliation by Ethnic Group Ethnic Group Sole 16.2 Mixed 18.9 non- 6.2 Total ancestry 19.4 Number not stating an iwi 112,563 Source: Statistics New Zealand 1997a
Age group Age group Table 4 Ancestry Population by Selected Iwi 1991 and Iwi 1991 % growth Ngapuhi 3 93,429 95,85 2.5 Ngati Porou 48,525 54,219 11.7 Ngati Kahungunu 4 45,36 46,242 1.9 Ngai Tahu 2,34 29,133 43.5 Tuwharetoa 24,66 28,998 2.5 Tuhoe 24,522 25,917 5.7 Ngati Maniapoto 21,936 23,733 8.2 Waikato 22,23 23,88 7.1 Source: Statistics New Zealand 1997a Note: The iwi selected in this table have been chosen on the basis that they have 2,+ affiliates. Figure 2 Age Structure of the and non- Populations a) population 85+ 8-84 75-79 7-74 65-69 6-64 55-59 5-54 45-49 4-44 35-39 3-34 25-29 2-24 15-19 1-14 5-9 <5 85+ 8-84 75-79 7-74 65-69 6-64 55-59 5-54 45-49 4-44 35-39 3-34 25-29 2-24 15-19 1-14 5-9 <5 Males 8% 6% 4% 2% % 2% 4% 6% 8% Percent of population b) Non- population Males Females Females 8% 6% 4% 2% % 2% 4% 6% 8% Percent of non- population Source: Statistics New Zealand 1997a, d 3 Includes: Ngapuhi ki Whaingaroa-Ngati Kahu ki Whaingaroa. 4 Includes: Ngati Kahungunu ki Wairoa, Heretaunga, Wairarapa, and area unspecified. a wording change to the Census ethnicity questions that may have led to people answering the questions differently than in previous censuses. MÀORI ANCESTRY POPULATION In 1991, a question was added to the Census which asked people whether or not they had ancestry. At the Census, 579,7 people (16% of the total population) claimed ancestry, up from 511,3 (15%) in 1991. In, the majority of people with ancestry identified as (sole or mixed), while some (15%) identified as non-. Table 2 shows that over the 1991 to period the proportion of the ancestry population who said they were sole or non- decreased whilst the proportion who identified as mixed increased. Those people claiming ancestry were asked to identify their iwi. In, some 426,234 (74%) stated an affiliation with one or more iwi. Of the remainder, 112,563 (19%) did not know what iwi they were affiliated to and 4,917 (7%) did not respond to this part of the question. Non- who claimed ancestry are generally the least likely to specify an iwi affiliation (Table 3). Table 4 shows a selection of the largest iwi and the number of people affiliating to these iwi in 1991 and. In both years, Ngapuhi, Ngati Porou, and Ngati Kahungunu were the three largest iwi. While Ngai Tahu experienced the largest growth over the last five years (44%), the number of people identifying as Tuwharetoa also increased by almost 21% and Ngati Porou by 12% (Table 4). AGE COMPOSITION In terms of age structure, on average the population has been younger than the non- population for many years. In, some 38% of were under the age of 15 compared with 2% of the non- population (Figure 2). Conversely, only 3% of were over the age of 65 compared to 13% of non-. The social and economic disadvantage experienced by reflects in part the unique demographic characteristics of the population. These population characteristics can serve to facilitate or hinder progress towards economic and social parity. Age is a strong determinant in this regard. The younger age structure of the population means that as a community are often more affected by changes experienced by the entire New Zealand population. For example, the impact of economic restructuring in recent years, and the 3
ensuing job losses, was more severe on than on non- because of the youthful nature of the labour force. The concentration of the population in regions 5 where industries were downsized (such as manufacturing and processing industries) also impacted on the extent of job losses. Jobs are scarce in these areas and generally lack the qualifications and/or skills necessary to compete effectively against their non- peers in the local job market (Te Puni Kòkiri 1998). Changing age structure As might be expected, given its comparative youthfulness, the population has a high youth dependency ratio and a relatively low aged dependency ratio. That is, for every 1 people in the working age group there is a large number of young people. For the non- population the reverse is true. As Table 5 shows, however, the overall dependency ratio narrowed considerably for between 1981 and, falling from 85 dependants for every 1 persons at working ages in 1981 to 71 in. Between 1981 and the proportion of children (aged -14 years) in the population decreased slightly. At the same time, the proportion of aged 65 and over increased marginally. Over the next 35 years, the population is expected to get older (Figure 3). As the population ages, the dependency burden will shift from the youth to the aged. Nevertheless, the population will remain younger than the non- population for some time yet. It is estimated that in 231 some 28% of the population will be under the age of 15 compared with 14% of the non- population. While the population is still a young population, future growth in the older age groups will be significant. Recent population projections suggest that the number of elderly (aged 65+ years) could increase by five times to reach 83,5 in 231 (Statistics New Zealand 1998a). By then, this group is expected to make up 1% of the total population, compared with 3% in (Figure 3). INFLUENCES ON GROWTH The comparative youthfulness of the population reflects the fertility and mortality experiences of. Natural increase (births minus deaths) is the principal component of growth. Unlike the non- population, gains from net external migration do not supplement the population to the same extent. The recent census shows, however, that the size of the population can increase through interethnic mobility. Table 5 and non- Youth and Aged Dependency Ratios 1981- Ethnic group 1981 1986 1991 Youth dependency ratio 78.5 68.2 64.4 65.3 non- 41. 36.3 34.2 37. Aged dependency ratio 6.7 6.8 7.4 8.6 non- 25.8 26.5 27.6 27.6 Total dependency ratio 85.2 75. 71.8 73.9 non- 66.9 62.8 61.8 6.6 Source: Statistics New Zealand 1993, 1997a, d Figure 3 and non- Actual and Projected Age Distribution 1991,, 211 and 231 a) Percent distribution Percent distribution 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Source: Statistics New Zealand 1994a, 1997a, 1998a Note: Projected figures use the Census as the base population. 1991 211 231-14 15-64 65+ Age b) Non- 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1991 211 231-14 15-64 65+ Age 5 Such as Northland, Gisborne, and the Bay of Plenty. 4
Number of years expected to live 8 75 7 65 6 55 Table 6 and non- Fertility Rates 1962-1995 non- Year Number of Births per Women 19626.18 4.4 1966 5.54 3.23 1976 3.8 2.18 1983 2.23 1.87 1993 2.29 2.7 1994 2.29 2.1 1995 2.38 1.99 Source: Statistics New Zealand 1997b Figure 4 and non- Life Expectancy at Birth 195-1992 non- females non- males females males 195-521955-57 196-621965-67 197-721975-77 198-821985-87 199-92 Years Source: Pòmare et al 1995 Fertility 6 Both and non- fertility rates 7 have declined considerably over the past thirty years. Despite this, fertility remains higher than non- fertility. As Table 6 shows, the total fertility rate fell from 6.18 births per woman to 2.38 between 1962 and 1995, whilst the non- rate fell from 4.4 to 1.99. Life expectancy Between 1952 and 1992, life expectancy at birth rose by 16 years, compared with 7 years for the non- population. As a result, the gap in and non- life expectancy has narrowed considerably (Figure 4). Nevertheless, continue to die at younger ages than non-. During 199 to 1992, the average life span of males was 68 years, whilst that of females was 73 years. The equivalent figures for both non- males and females were 73 years and 79 years respectively. male and female life expectancy is expected to continue to improve to reach 75 years and 8 years respectively by the year 231. 8 Many of the gains in overall life expectancy over the past forty years have been due to increases in life expectancy at older ages and a decline in infant mortality (Figure 5). Between 1953 and 1994, the infant mortality rate fell from 73 per 1, live births to 14 per 1, live births. Rate per 1, live births 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Figure 5 and non- Infant Mortality Rates 195-1994 non- Improvements in life expectancy notwithstanding, the comparatively high death rate (Figure 6) has implications for the future growth and development of the population. In numerical terms, there are around 1,4 deaths annually. Of these, around half are kaumàtua, a vital loss from the pool of resources that is imperative to development, revitalisation of te reo and the survival of culture and tikanga. The National Language Survey (1995) showed that 33% of fluent adults (aged 16 years and over) were 6 years of age and over. 1 195 1954 1958 19621966 197 1974 1978 19821986 199 1994 Year Source: Public Health Commission 1994 and New Zealand Health Information Service 1997 6 A more detailed analysis of female childbearing patterns is located in the Families and Households section of this report. 7 A fertility rate indicates the average number of births a female could have during her reproductive life. 8 The life expectancy projections used in this analysis are based on the 1991 Census. 5
International migration In 1986, the ethnicity question was removed from passenger arrival and departure cards (the source of continuing information on international migration). As a result there have been no figures on the number of leaving or returning to New Zealand since that time. However, there is evidence to suggest that the population is experiencing net losses annually through external migration even though the numbers involved are very small. Over the next 35 years, losses are projected to be in the order of 5 per year. At this rate, by 231, the population would have sustained a total loss of about 2, (Wereta 1994). Australia is the most popular destination for emigrants. Lowe (199) estimated that in 1986 some 26,, or 6% of the population, lived in Australia. A substantial proportion of living in Australia were aged 2-29 years. If this level of migration to Australia were to continue, it could be expected that the population resident in Australia may experience higher growth than the population resident in New Zealand. REGIONAL LOCATION In, 5% of the population lived in the northern half of the North Island, with a quarter (24%) resident in the Auckland region and another quarter (26%) living in the Waikato and Bay of Plenty regions (Figure 7). Age standardised death rate per 1, pop n 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Figure 6 and Total Population Death Rates 1961-1994 Figure 7 Percent Distribution of the Population by Regional Council Area Auckland 24.2% Waikato King Country 13.7% Taranaki 2.9% Hawke's Bay 6.1% Manawatu Wanganui 7.6% Total 1961 1964 1967 197 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 Year Source: Statistics New Zealand Northland 7.9% Bay of Plenty 12.% Gisborne 3.7% The proportion of living in the Gisborne, Northland, Bay of Plenty and Hawke s Bay regional council areas is relatively low, when compared to the proportions living in regions that are mainly urban. Figure 8 shows, however, that when the number of living in each of these regions is seen as a proportion of the total population of New Zealand, a different picture emerges. For example, whilst only 4% of the total population lived in Gisborne in, accounted for 45% of the total Gisborne population at that time. This has implications for the provision of government services. For example, at a national level a sizeable portion of community wage 9 clients will be. This will be even more pronounced in areas where are highly represented. Southland Chatham Islands 2.% West Coast.5% Otago 2.1% Canterbury 5.9% Nelson Marlborough 1.8% Wellington 9.5% The youthful nature of the population means that representation is even higher among young age groups (Figure 8). For example, in, 45% of the total population in Gisborne was and at the same time 56% of the children in this region were. These population characteristics will have implications for the demand and supply of educational services. Source: Statistics New Zealand 1997a 9 The Community Wage will be implemented on 1 October 1998. Under the Community Wage unemployed job seekers will receive a wage from the State in return for certain obligations, including being available for and actively seeking paid work, and participation in community work, training or organised activity, where it is provided. 6
Region Northland Auckland Waikato/King Country Bay of Plenty Gisborne Hawke's Bay Taranaki Manawatu/Wanganui Wellington Nelson/Marlborough West Coast Canterbury Otago Southland/Chatham Islands Source: Statistics New Zealand 1997a Figure 8 as a Percent of the Population in Regional Council Areas % of children who are % of population who are 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 4 45 5 55 6 Percent Table 7 Percent of and non- Living in Rural Areas 1926- Year non- 1926 84.6 3.7 1936 81. 3.4 1945 74.9 25.9 1951 71. 24.5 1956 65.3 23.6 1961 54. 21.4 1971 29.8 17.5 1981 21.415.9 1986 19.7 15.8 1991 17. 14.3 16.8 14.2 Source: Pool 1991 and Statistics New Zealand 1997a Rural - Urban movements As has been mentioned previously, one of the most striking features of population development was the shift from rural areas which occurred in the 195s and 196s. The rate at which the population moved from rural to urban areas was extremely fast and was the most accelerated move experienced by any population (Pool 1991). This mobility was stimulated by government policy interventions. As Table 7 shows this trend was far less significant throughout the 198s and in fact more recently, commentators have observed an emerging trend of migration from urban back to rural areas. The urban to rural movement of, which was first observed at the 1981 Census, is continuing. Anecdotal evidence of this movement was first presented in the late 197s, a time characterised by the continued downturn in the manufacturing sector, the beginnings of restructuring in the public sector, and increasingly high costs associated with urban living. Faced with long-term prospects of urban unemployment, a small number of are beginning to return home to their rural beginnings. Unemployment in the city, it seems, is harsher than in the countryside. There is every likelihood that a return home movement will accelerate into the 198 s (Douglas 1986). Recent census statistics indicate that an increasing number of families and kaumàtua are moving from highly urbanised regions to regions that are more rural in character. A study using 1991 Census data suggests that these people are leaving the urban centres and moving back to their original tribal areas (Boddington et al 1993). Table 8 Regional Movement of the Population 1986- Region 1986-1991 1991- North Island Northland 1,668 471 Auckland -1,62 321 Waikato 53481 Bay of Plenty 1,5241,26 Gisborne -495-417 Hawke s Bay -549-591 Taranaki -228-414 Manawatu/Wanganui -3-48 Wellington -963-1,65 South Island Nelson/Marlborough 24 591 West Coast -9-81 Canterbury 261 558 Otago 93 252 Southland -345-915 Source: Statistics New Zealand 1994b, 1997a During the intercensal period, 1986-1991, Auckland and Wellington both suffered net losses to their populations. Although Auckland experienced a net gain in the subsequent five-year period (1991-), this was small compared to the net gains made by the less urbanised regions of Northland, Waikato, the Bay of Plenty, and Nelson/Marlborough (Table 8). An analysis of internal migration found that those moving from urban regions included a significant number of family groups and elderly (Boddington and Khawaja 1993). Trends since then tend to confirm this pattern. internal migration varies by age. Children under 15 years, people at the more mature end of the working age population and kaumàtua tend to move from urbanised regions to regions that are more rural in character. By comparison, those moving from rural to urban areas were more likely to be young adults (Table 9). 7
The net outflow of from rural regions, such as Gisborne, Hawke s Bay, Taranaki, and Southland, is likely to reflect the movement of young (aged 15-24 years) to the main centres in search of better educational and employment opportunities (Boddington and Khawaja 1993). FAMILIES AND HOUSEHOLDS In 1995, women had, on average, two children each compared to six in the 196s. As Table 6 showed, both and non- fertility rates have declined considerably over the past thirty years. However, in spite of this, fertility rates remain higher than those for non-. In addition to having higher fertility rates, women tend to commence childbearing at an earlier age that non- women (in their mid teens and early twenties as opposed to late twenties or early thirties) (Figure 9). Recent statistics also indicate that levels of fertility for women in their thirties are higher now than they were a decade ago. The economic circumstances of families are affected by the timing of childbearing. By delaying the onset of childbearing, many non- couples are able to continue earning for some years into the marriage/relationship, and are therefore able to accumulate the assets and savings required to secure their children s future before their birth. Many couples do not have this opportunity because their children tend to be born at a much earlier stage in the marriage/relationship. Furthermore, the lower incomes and more limited access by families, parents, and sole parents to employment and therefore asset and saving accumulation, means that the economic foundation for many families is far less secure. Over the past decade, there have been major changes in the structure of families. A considerable increase in the number of children living in one parent families since the early 198s has been the subject of particular concern. From 1981 to 1991, the proportion of children living in one parent families, doubled from 19% to 42%. Figure 1 shows that although the proportion of children living in one parent families continued to increase in, growth was much lower than that experienced in previous years. Notwithstanding the increase in the proportion of children living in one parent families over the past decade, in more than half of children (59%) were living with two parents. Despite this, in, a greater proportion of non- children (82%) lived in two parent families (Table 1). Age-specific fertility rate per 1, Percent in one parent families Table 9 Population Movement by Age 1991- Regions -14 years 15-24 years 25-54 years 55+ years Auckland, Wellington, -1191 291-186 -582 Christchurch & Dunedin Northland, Waikato 1344-1185 165 4 8 9 & Bay of Plenty Rest of the North Island -144-1275 -534 111 Rest of the South Island -4173-213 Source: Statistics New Zealand 1997d 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Figure 9 and non- Women s Fertility Rates 1995 15-19 2-24 25-29 3-34 35-39 4-44 45-49 Age group Source: Statistics New Zealand 1997b Figure 1 Percent of and non- Children in One Parent Families 1981- non- non- 1981 1986 1991 Year Source: Statistics New Zealand 1993,1997a 8
Table 1 Number and Percent of and non- Dependent Children in One and Two Parent Families non- Family Type Number Percent Number Percent One parent 76,677 41.2 12,627 17.6 Two parent 19,662 58.8 481,527 82.4 Extended family type Total 186,339 1. 584,154 1. Source: Statistics New Zealand 1997a Figure 11 Percent of and non- Individuals Living in Extended Family Households Three or more generations Two generations One generation Source: Statistics New Zealand 1997c Annual household income $5, $45, $35, $3, $25, $2, $15, $1, $5, non- 2 4 6 8 1 12 Percent of population Figure 12 and non- Average Annual Household Income 1987-1997 non- $ 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 Year Source: Statistics New Zealand 1993,1997e 1 A householder includes as one of his or her ethnic groups. If the householder is not, the household is classified as non-. This means that a household may include non- members, and a non- household may include members. Similarly, were more likely than non- to live in extended family households. In, one in five (19%) lived in extended family households, the majority of which were households containing three or more generations of the same family (57%). A further 41% of extended family households consisted of two generations and 2% contained just one generation. In contrast, only 7% of the non- population lived in households containing extended families (Figure 11). The reasons for breakdown in family structures over the past decade have not been well researched. However, the Christchurch Child Development Study (Fergusson et al 199) provides some insight into why families may have a higher risk of breakdown than non- families. The study highlighted that the processes by which families are formed are important indicators of the chances of family survival. In general, the younger the mother and the more recent the marriage, the greater the likelihood of breakdown. Other risk factors identified in the study were de facto marriage and unplanned pregnancy. On these measures alone, families have a higher risk of breakdown than non- families. The fact that women begin childbearing at an earlier age indicates that couples generally have their first child at an earlier stage in the marriage or partnership than non- couples. In addition, the severity of unemployment over the past decade is likely to have been a mitigating factor in the breakdown of families. The Prime Ministerial Task Force on Employment (1994) identified that the stress and disruptiveness of even a short period of unemployment can cause immense strain on family relationships which can often result in break-up. Given that have been disproportionately affected by unemployment, it follows that these factors have been strong determinants of changing family structures. Household income 1 Increasing numbers of one parent households combined with lower levels of labour force participation, under representation in higher paying occupations, and higher rates of unemployment have contributed to the disparities between and non- household incomes. In 1997, the average annual income before tax for households was $1, lower than that of non- households ($47, compared to $37,). Although the income for both and non- households increased between 1994 and, household income has fallen over the past year (Figure 12). 9
Figure 13 shows that in, 41% of children were in families that received an income of $2, or less. As opposed to 2% of non- children. By comparison, some 38% of non- children, in contrast to 18% of children, were from families with incomes over $5, (Figure 13). Sources of income 4 35 3 Figure 13 Percent of Children 11 Living in One and Two Parent Families by Family Income non- The most common source of income for both and non- in was wages and salaries. However, more than one in three (37%) received government benefits in the form of income support payments. This was much lower for non- at 15% (Table 11). Fewer received New Zealand superannuation (just 4%, compared with 13% of non- ). Over the past two decades the dramatic increase in one parent families combined with growing unemployment resulted in an increased proportion of receiving income support payments. Figure 14 shows the types of income support payments received by and non- in. are more likely than non- to receive an unemployment benefit or domestic purposes benefit, whereas non- are more likely to receive national superannuation. These patterns of income support receipt reflect the youthful age structure of the population and the older non- population. FUTURE OUTLOOK From the 197s through to the early 199s, the population was in a state of transition from high to low growth. Despite higher than expected growth in the last census period, this transition will continue. This is a process that the non- population and the populations of all western nations have endured. It will bring with it profound and far-reaching changes in the demographic profile of the population. The three key demographic drivers that will play a key role in determining the future shape and needs of the population are continued population growth, population ageing, and population distribution. Over the next three decades at least, the population will continue to grow and will come to make up a growing proportion of the New Zealand population. At the same time, the population will get progressively older. The resulting increase in the number of kaumàtua will have implications for the provision of appropriate health and other social services. 11 Children refers to those aged -14 years. Percent 25 2 15 1 5 loss/zero $1- $1,1 - $2,1 - $3,1 - $4,1 - $5,1+ $1, $2, $3, $4, $5, Income Source: Statistics New Zealand 1997a Percent of income support payments 5 4 3 2 1 Table 11 and non- Personal Income Sources Income Sources non- (% of people receiving an income) Wages/salaries 45 39 Other government benefits 37 15 Self-employment 7 13 NZ superannuation 4 13 Investments 6 2 Other 3 4 Source: Statistics New Zealand 1997b Note: A person may receive income from more than one source. Other government benefits includes unemployment benefit, domestic purposes benefit, ACC regular payments, invalids benefit, sickness benefit, and other government benefits. Other includes other sources of superannuation and other sources of income. Unemployment benefit Figure 14 Types of Income Support Received by and non- non- Domestic purposes benefit Student allowance NZ superannuation Type of income support Source: Statistics New Zealand 1997b Note: Other includes ACC regular payments, invalids benefit, sickness benefit, and other government benefits. Other 1
If the emergent trend of movement back to rural areas continues, this will have implications for infrastructure, and for programme and service provision in these rural areas. If current trends continue, then increasing demand for housing and health services for kaumàtua, and education and family support services for young families can be anticipated. Finally, despite the maturing of the population it will continue to remain younger than the non- population for some time yet. More than a third of the population is under the age of 3 years, and it is this group that is most severely affected by unemployment. Therefore the introduction of education, training and employment strategies which achieve positive outcomes for this group would go a long way towards enhancing social and economic well-being for the population as a whole. GLOSSARY Dependency ratio: compares the proportion of the population who are usually dependent or who are from the non-working age groups with the proportion of the population who are usually providers (independent) (that is, at working ages). Kaumàtua: aged 65 years and over. ancestry: people who identify as having ancestry. Can include people from any ethnicity. ethnic group: people who identify as either only or and at least one other ethnicity (that is, sole plus mixed ). Mixed : people who identify with two or more ethnic groups, one of which is. Net external migration: the difference between arrivals and departures. Net population loss: experienced when more people leave a country/area during a particular time period, than arrive. Sole : people who identify as only (and no other ethnic groups). Tikanga: custom, practice, principle. REFERENCES Boddington W, Khawaja M. 1993. Regional Migration During 1986-91, With Special Emphasis on the Population. In Ethnicity and gender: population trends and policy challenges in the 199s. Proceedings of a conference, Wellington, July 1993. Wellington: Population Association of New Zealand and Te Puni Kòkiri. Boddington W, Smeith G, Khawaja M. 1993. A statistical analysis of ethnic and sex differentials in New Zealand mortality, 1985-87. In Demographic Trends 1992. Wellington: Statistics New Zealand. Douglas E. 1986. Fading Expectations: The crisis in housing. A report for the Board of Affairs. Wellington: Department of Affairs. Fergusson D, Horwood L, Lynskey M. 199. Vulnerability to childhood problems and family social background. J Child Psychol Psychiatry 31: 1145-6. Khawaja M, Boddington W, 1993. Regional Migration during 1986-1991, with special emphasis on the population. In Ethnicity and gender: population trends and policy challenges in the 199s. Proceedings of a conference, Wellington July 1993. Lowe R. 199. The Australian Population - Nga ki Ahitereiria. Wellington: New Zealand Planning Council. New Zealand Health Information Service. 1997. Unpublished hospitalisation data. Wellington: New Zealand Health Information Service. Pòmare E, Keefe-Ormsby V, Pearce N, et al. 1995. Hauora. Standards of Health III. A study of the years 197-1991. Wellington: Te Ròpù Rangahau Hauora a Eru Pòmare/Eru Pòmare Health Research Centre. Pool I. 1991. Te Iwi : A New Zealand population past, present and projected. Auckland: Auckland University Press. Prime Ministerial Task Force on Employment. 1994. Employment: The issues. Wellington: Prime Ministerial Task Force on Employment. Public Health Commission. 1994. Our Health Our Future: The state of the public health in New Zealand 1994. Wellington: Public Health Commission. Statistics New Zealand. 1993. 1991 Census of Population and Dwellings: New Zealand population and dwellings. Wellington: Statistics New Zealand. Statistics New Zealand. 1994a. Unpublished New Zealand and total population projections 1991-231. Christchurch: Statistics New Zealand. Statistics New Zealand. 1994b. New Zealand Now. Wellington: Statistics New Zealand. 11
Statistics New Zealand.. Demographic Trends 1995. Wellington: Statistics New Zealand. Statistics New Zealand. 1997a. Census of Population and Dwellings:. Wellington: Statistics New Zealand. Statistics New Zealand. 1997b. Unpublished fertility data. Christchurch: Statistics New Zealand. Statistics New Zealand. 1997c. Unpublished paper - Concepts of Ethnicity and the Monitoring of Trends in Health. Paper presented at the Statistics Forum. Wellington: Statistics New Zealand. Statistics New Zealand. 1997d. Unpublished data. Wellington: Statistics New Zealand. Statistics New Zealand. 1997e. Household Economic Survey. Unpublished data. Wellington: Statistics New Zealand. Statistics New Zealand. 1998a. Unpublished New Zealand and total population projections -251. Christchurch: Statistics New Zealand. Statistics New Zealand. 1998b. Census of Population and Dwellings: Incomes. Wellington: Statistics New Zealand. Statistics New Zealand. 1998c. Census of Population and Dwellings: Families and Households. Wellington: Statistics New Zealand. Te Puni Kòkiri. 1998. Whakapakari: Hunga Mahi. Trends in employment, income and expenditure. Wellington: Te Puni Kòkiri. Wereta W. 1994. Demographic Trends. In Massey University Hui Wakapumau conference proceedings, August 1994, Massey University. Palmerston North: Massey University. KEY FINDINGS During the 1991- period, the population increased by almost 9, (a 2% increase) to reach 524, in. In, the majority of people (74%) who claimed ancestry also stated an affiliation with one or more iwi. In, those persons claiming ancestry and specifying an iwi were most likely to identify with Ngapuhi (95,85), Ngati Porou (54,219), or Ngati Kahungunu (46,242). In, some 38% of were under the age of 15 compared with 23% of the non- population. Only 3% of were over the age of 65 compared to 18% of non-. Between and 231, the population is expected to grow by 63% to reach 855, people. In the year 231, one in every ten will be aged 65 years and over. Over the past forty years, infant mortality decreased considerably. As a result, life expectancy has increased. While some 83% of lived in urban areas in, recent figures indicate that some are now returning to their original tribal areas that are more rural in character. In, 5% of the population lived in the areas of Auckland, Waikato and the Bay of Plenty. make up a considerable proportion of the total population in Gisborne (45%), Northland (32%) and the Bay of Plenty (29%) regions. On average, have more children than non-. In 1997, households earned an average of $1, less than non- households. The number of children living in one parent families doubled between 1981 and 1991. Between 1991 and the increase in one parent families was far less substantial than in earlier years. Prepared by Carra Hamon, Lisa Davies, and Whetu Wereta Monitoring and Evaluation Branch, Te Puni Kòkiri, Wellington 12