Cross-Strait Relations and Electoral Politics in Taiwan Lu-huei Chen Distinguished Research Fellow Election Study Center National Chengchi University, Taiwan Visiting Scholar Political Science Department, MIT 1
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Outline l Cross-Strait Relations after Ma s Inauguration in 2008( 會 談 開放 ECFA) l Major Attitudes Trends in Taiwan( 統獨 政黨認同 臺 灣人認同 ) l Attitudes of Chinese Government toward Taiwan( 敵意善 意 ) l Cross-Strait Service and Trade Agreement( 兩岸服貿協議 ) l Electoral Politics in Taiwan( 制度 投票參與情況 ) l 2014 nine-in-one elections( 選舉種類與主要投票傾向 ) l Interactions between Electoral Politics and Cross-Strait Relations 3
Cross-Strait Relations and Electoral Politics l Elite play dominant role on cross-strait relations before 1996 l Presidential elections and cross-strait relations since 1996 4
Cross-Strait Relations after Ma s Inauguration in 2008 l China Policies since 1996 l Cross-Strait Exchanges since 2008 5
China Policies since 1996 l Lee Teng-hui (1988~2000) No haste, be patient (jie-ji yong-ren) ( 戒急用忍 ) 6
Chen Shui-bian(2000~2008) Proactive management & effective liberalization (ji-ji guang-li you-xiao kai-fang) ( 積極管理有效開放 ) 7
Ma Ying-jeou(2008~2016) New 3-no policy: No unification, no independence, no use of military force ( 不統 不獨 不武 ) 8
Cross-Strait exchanges after 2008 Chiang-Chen Summit: Chiang Pin-kung, the Chair of Taiwan s Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF), and Chen Yunlin held institutionalized talks since June 13 2008 in Beijing. Chen Yunlin, the Head of the Association for Relations across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS), came to visit Taipei in November 3 2008 in Taipei. 9
Cross-Strait exchanges after 2008 Chen Yunlin, the head of the Association for Relations across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS), came to visit Taipei in November of 2008, and he is the high-ranking Chinese official to visit since 1949. Chiang Pin-kung, the Chair of Taiwan s Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF), and Chen Yunlin held institutionalized talks since June 2008. The Ma administration proposed Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) with Beijing to further economic cooperation between Taiwan and China. (2010/06/29) 10
Wang-Zhang Meeting 2-11-2014 Wang Yu-chi, the Minister of Mainland Affairs Council (MAC), went to Nanjing on 11 February 2014. This meeting is the very first official contact between the two governments across the Taiwan Strait after the end of Chinese Civil War in 1949. Zhang Zhijun, the Director of Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) came to Taipei on 25 June 2014. It was the highest PRC government official visit to Taiwan. 11
Wang-Zhang Meeting 2-11-2014 Chen Yunlin, the head of the Association for Relations across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS), came to visit Taipei in November of 2008, and he is the high-ranking Chinese official to visit since 1949. Chiang Pin-kung, the Chair of Taiwan s Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF), and Chen Yunlin held institutionalized talks since June 2008. The Ma administration proposed Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) with Beijing to further economic cooperation between Taiwan and China. (2010/06/29) 12
Major Political Attitudes Dynamics of Electoral Politics in Taiwan --Identity Politics --Attitudes toward Mainland China 13
Preference on Taiwan Independence Issue 14 Regarding the relations between Taiwan and mainland China, there are a number of different views. Which position better represent your view on this issue? 1. Unification with China ASAP (Unification) 2. Declaring independence ASAP (Independence) 3. Maintaining status quo, moving toward unification (SQ-Unification 4. Maintaining status quo, moving toward independence (SQ -Independence) 5. Maintaining status quo, deciding at late date (SQ-Decide later) 6. Maintaining status quo indefinitely (SQ-Indefinitely)
Preference on Taiwan Independence Issue 15
Preference on Taiwan Independence Issue 16
Trends of Party ID 17
Trends of Party ID_by Partisan Camp 18
Trends of Chinese/Taiwanese Identity 19
Prospects on Cross-Strait Relations 20
Prospects on Cross-Strait Relations by Party ID 21
Prospects on Cross-Strait Relations by Identity 22
Chinese Gov. treat Taiwanese Gov. 23
Chinese Gov. treat Taiwanese 24
Sunflower Student Movement in 2014 l Date: March 18 to April 10, 2014, in the Legislative Yuan l Why:The activists protested the passing of the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement (CSSTA) by the ruling party Kuomintang (KMT) at the legislature without clause-by-clause review. 25
26 民意與調查
) 27 民意與調查
28 民意與調查
Political Emotion: Hopeful 29 民意與調查
Political Emotion: Angry 30 民意與調查
Political Emotion: Worrisome 31 民意與調查
Emotions and Political Participation 32
Emotions and Attitude toward CSSTA 33
Electoral Politics in Taiwan l Presidential Election l Legislative Elections l Local Elections 34
Electoral Participation:National Elections 35
Electoral Participation:Local Elections 36
Election Results, 2009-2014 37
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Social Bases for Major Parties 39 l KMT Females, 40~59 yr, Wei-shang-ren, Hakka, educated, Governemntal Officers, North and middle Taiwan, Satisfied with Cross-Strait relations, Pan-Blue partisans, Pro-Unification and Maintaining Status Quo, Dual-Identity l DPP 20-23 yr, Min-nan-ren, lower education, labor, farmer, Southern Taiwan, Pan-Green partisans, Pro-Independence, Taiwan Identity
New Taipei City 40
Local Elections: Nov. 29, 2014 l 6 municipal cities Mayor/City councilor/leader/councilor of Aboriginal District/Li Elections DPP: 4; KMT:1; IND: 1 l 16 Counties Magistrate/county councilor/township/ township councilor/li elections 41 DPP: 9;KMT:5 ; IND:2
Legislative Elections 42 l Total seats: 113 l Mixed-member Majoritarian systems l One vote for candidate (70% of total seats) 1. SMD: 73 seats 2. Two Aboriginal Districts: 3 seats for each l One vote for party (30% of total seats) 1. PR: 34 seats 2. Threshold: 5%
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2008 Legislative Elections 44 國民黨 (KMT) 民進黨 (DPP) 1 新黨 (NP) 2 親民黨 (PFP) 台聯 (TSU) 無黨聯盟 (NPSU) 3 其他 (Other) 2008 SMD PR 4 Aboriginal Total Vote % Seat(%) Vote % Seat(%) Vote % Seat(%) Seat(%) 53.48 57 (78.08) 51.23 20 (58.82) 54.89 4 (66.67) 81 (71.68) 38.65 13 36.91 14 6.76 0 27 (17.81) (41.18) (0.00) (23.89) --- --- 3.95 0 --- --- 0 (0.00) (0.00) 0.02 0 --- --- 17.47 1 1 (0.00) (16.67) (0.89) 0.96 0 3.53 0 --- --- 0 (0.00) (0.00) 2.25 2 0.70 0 13.35 1 3 (2.74) (0.00) (16.67) (2.66) 4.64 1 3.68 0 7.53 0 1 (1.37) (0.00) (0.00) (0.89) Total 100.0 73 100.0 34 100.0 6 113 Turnout % 58.72% 58.28% 47.36% ---
2012 Legislative Elections 45 2012 SMD PR 4 Aboriginal Total Vote % Seat(%) Vote % Seat(%) Vote % Seat(%) Seat(%) 國民黨 48.12 44 44.55 16 51.52 4 64 (KMT) (60.27) (47.06) (66.67) (56.64) 民進黨 44.45 27 34.62 13 4.64 0 40 (DPP) (36.99) (38.24) (0.00) (35.40) 1 新黨 0.08 0 1.49 0 --- --- 0 (NP) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) 2 親民黨 1.12 0 5.49 2 13.74 1 3 (PFP) (0.00) (5.88) (16.67) (2.65) 台聯 --- --- 8.96 3 --- --- 3 (TSU) (8.82) (2.65) 無黨聯盟 1.08 1 --- --- 13.74 1 2 (NPSU) (1.37) (16.67) (1.77) 3 其他 5.15 1 4.89 0 16.36 0 1 (Other) (1.37) (0.00) (0.00) (0.88) Total 100.0 73 100.0 34 100.0 6 113 Turnout % 74.72% 74.33% 61.99% ------
Cross-Strait Relations and Electoral Politics l Public Opinion play more important role on Cross- Strait relations l Politicians have to respond people s preference on major issues l Roles of cross-strait economic exchanges and political emotions toward China 46
Thank you for your attention!! Q & A 47