The Electoral System and its Impact on Electoral Behaviour: Is Taiwan s Experience Unusual?

The Electoral System and its Impact on Electoral Behaviour: Is Taiwan s Experience Unusual? Chia-hung Tsai Election Study Center, NCCU June 21, 2014 Presented at The Ordinary and the Extraordinary in Taiwan Workshop, the University of Nottingham, UK, June 20-21 2014 CHT (ESC) Taiwan Studies Programme Conference June 21, 2014 1 / 18

Table of contents 1 Foreword 2 Election System What Happens in Taiwan? Election Results in 2004 and 2008 Comparison between Taiwan and Japan 3 Uncertain Development 4 Conclusion CHT (ESC) Taiwan Studies Programme Conference June 21, 2014 2 / 18

Foreword Mixed electoral system has been prominent in recent decades Japan (1996): 300 single seats and 180 list tier seats from 7 PR districts Korea (1988)245 in single-seat constituencies and 54 members by proportional representation Thailand (1997): 375 single seat and 125 PR seats in a single nationwide district Philippines (1998): 20% of the total House seats are allocated using PR New Zealand (1996) MMP: 51 at-large list seats and 70 electorate Party votes determine party s total share of seats in parliament CHT (ESC) Taiwan Studies Programme Conference June 21, 2014 3 / 18

Understanding Election System Single-non-transferable voting system (SNTV) was replaced by single-member district system in 2007 The size of the legislature (Legislative Yuan) was cut in half (113 seats) New systems has 73 single seat districts, 34 party list seats and 6 Aborigines seats in 2 SNTV districts Voters cast two separate votes one for a candidate in their single-seat constituency, and one for a party for the national list tier Party needs 5% of list-tier votes to obtain a seat There must be at least half of list-tier seats for female In 2008, the Legislative Yuan was elected under the new system CHT (ESC) Taiwan Studies Programme Conference June 21, 2014 4 / 18

SMD Seats List Seats Overseas Total KMT 3283% 61(7772%) 364% 15(366%) 3(375%) 79(351% DPP 3572% 70(3978%) 396% 17(390%) 3(375%) 89(396% PFP 139% 27(1534%) 154% 6(146%) 1(125%) 34(151% NP 012% 1(054%) 0 0(0) 0(0) 1(4%) TSU 779% 7(398%) 863% 4(976%) 1(125%) 12(533% Other 964% 10(568%) 0 0(0) 0(0) 10(444% Table 1: 2004 Legislative Election SMD Seats List Seats Total KMT 5527% 61(7772%) 5123% 20(5882%) 81(7168%) DPP 3979% 13(1646%) 3691% 14(4118%) 27(2389%) PFP 03% 1(127%) 0 0(0) 1(0089%) NP 012% 1(054%) 0 0(0) 1(044%) TSU 099% 0(0) 353% 0(0) 0(0) Other 315% 4(506%) 0 0(0) 4(354%) Table 2: 2008 Legislative Election CHT (ESC) Taiwan Studies Programme Conference June 21, 2014 5 / 18

SMD Seats List Seats Total KMT 4818% 48(6575%) 4455% 16(4706%) 64(5664%) DPP 4380% 27(3699%) 3462% 13(3824%) 40(354%) PFP 13% 0(0) 549% 0(0) 2(009%) TSU 0 0(0) 896% 3(009%) 3(003%) Other 661% 4(506%) 49% 0(0) 4(354%) Table 3: 2012 Legislative Election CHT (ESC) Taiwan Studies Programme Conference June 21, 2014 6 / 18

After the Election Changes Number of parties: 326(2004) 175(2008) 226(2012) Factions: Multiple informal organizations remain Small parties disappear and bipolarization of politics into blue/green camp CHT (ESC) Taiwan Studies Programme Conference June 21, 2014 7 / 18

Mapping the 2004 Legislative Election CHT (ESC) Taiwan Studies Programme Conference June 21, 2014 8 / 18

Mapping the 2008 Legislative Election CHT (ESC) Taiwan Studies Programme Conference June 21, 2014 9 / 18

Comparing MMM in Taiwan and Japan 1 In Taiwan, number of parties has reduced, partly because of the semi-presidential system 2 New single-member district system reinforces party politics Parties use polls instead of committees to decide nomination Campaign funds is distributed by parties and partly supported by the government Personal votes still exist; incumbents spend a great deal of time on constituency service CHT (ESC) Taiwan Studies Programme Conference June 21, 2014 10 / 18

Unusualness of Taiwan 1 The semi-presidentialism in Taiwan makes party coalitions difficult Post-election cooperation is not an option 2 Because the semi-presidential system lacks the cabinet posts as rewards for party coalition, small parties deviate from two major parties 3 Party-list under the new election system becomes an excellent channels for professionals and minority groups 4 Ruling parties make more strategic use of positions in the government as carrots and sticks to control incumbents and party members KMT members still follow President Ma even though his popularity is as low as 10% There is no legislative faction within KMT CHT (ESC) Taiwan Studies Programme Conference June 21, 2014 11 / 18

Uncertainty Polarization Presidential system and election system reinforce polarization Public policies are involved with national identity and party struggle Internet panel survey shows that partisanship is associated with support for the Sunflower Movement Prospective economic voting is more evident than retrospective economic voting, when partisanship is controlled for Partisan Presidency Without parliamentary system, the president must use nominations and cabinet posts to control the legislators, which strengthens polarization Lack of Representation Small parties cannot pass the 5% threshold for part-list seats The TSU won 35% in 2008 and gained no seats Thanks to clear anti-china stand, it won 95% in 2012 and was allocated three seats CHT (ESC) Taiwan Studies Programme Conference June 21, 2014 12 / 18

Identity Politics CHT (ESC) Taiwan Studies Programme Conference June 21, 2014 13 / 18

Identity in the 2012 Presidential Election CHT (ESC) Taiwan Studies Programme Conference June 21, 2014 14 / 18

Sub-ethnicity and Voting, 1996-2012 Presidential Elections CHT (ESC) Taiwan Studies Programme Conference June 21, 2014 15 / 18

Partisanship and Presidential Approval, 2014 CHT (ESC) Taiwan Studies Programme Conference June 21, 2014 16 / 18

Concluding Remarks 1 Constituency service and personal votes prevail in legislative elections, but parties are more polarized CHT (ESC) Taiwan Studies Programme Conference June 21, 2014 17 / 18

Concluding Remarks 1 Constituency service and personal votes prevail in legislative elections, but parties are more polarized 2 Identity continues to be the most important cleavage Partisanship colors social welfare, economic development, and foreign policies CHT (ESC) Taiwan Studies Programme Conference June 21, 2014 17 / 18

Concluding Remarks 1 Constituency service and personal votes prevail in legislative elections, but parties are more polarized 2 Identity continues to be the most important cleavage Partisanship colors social welfare, economic development, and foreign policies 3 Compared to Japan, Taiwan has smaller party system, and strength of party control is conditional on the popularity of the president CHT (ESC) Taiwan Studies Programme Conference June 21, 2014 17 / 18

Concluding Remarks 1 Constituency service and personal votes prevail in legislative elections, but parties are more polarized 2 Identity continues to be the most important cleavage Partisanship colors social welfare, economic development, and foreign policies 3 Compared to Japan, Taiwan has smaller party system, and strength of party control is conditional on the popularity of the president 4 It remains to be seen if small parties and civil groups can challenge the semi-presidentialism and MMM system CHT (ESC) Taiwan Studies Programme Conference June 21, 2014 17 / 18

Thank you for your listening CHT (ESC) Taiwan Studies Programme Conference June 21, 2014 18 / 18