Population and sustainable development in the context of the post-2015 UN development agenda United Nations Commission on Population and Development 8 April 2014 David Lam Department of Economics and Population Studies Center University of Michigan
How will population affect development from 2015 to 2030? According to UN Medium Variant projections: The world will add 1.1 billion people Asia will add 500 million Sub-Saharan Africa will add 419 million How does this compare to previous 15- year periods?
Addition to world population for 15-year periods, 1955-2045 Billion 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.93 1.17 1.26 1.20 1.10 0.88 0.4 0.2 0.0
Percentage increase in world population for 15-year periods, 1955-2045 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Percentage Increase40% 33.7% 31.8% 26.0% 19.5% 15.0% 10.5%
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 World population From 1960: World population doubled in 39 years The world added 4 billion people in 51 This years will almost surely never happen again 2011: 7 1999: Billion 6 1987: Billion 5 1974: Billion 4 1960: Billion 3 Billion From 1950: UN World Population Prospects: 2012 0 revision 1850 1950 2050
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 U.N. projections of world population to 2100 High, Medium, and Low Variants 2011: 7 1999: Billion 6 1987: Billion 5 1974: Billion 4 1960: Billion 3 Billion 0 revision 1850 1950 2050 16.6 Billion 10.9 Billion 6.8 Billion From 1950: UN World Population Prospects: 2012
2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Annual growth rate of world population Pre-1950 estimates 2010 1.18% 1968 2.08% UN estimates and projections 0.78% 0.11% -0.5% -0.70% UN Population Division Estimates - 2012-1.0% revision 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 Rate of Natural Increase Demographic Transition World, 1950-2015 Crude Birth Rate 10 5 Crude Death per 1000 population Rate 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Rate of Natural Increase per 1000 population Demographic Transition Southeast Asia Crude Birth Rate Crude Death Rate 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
60 50 40 30 20 10 Birth rate Demographic Transition Sub-Saharan Africa Rate of Natural Increase Death rate per 1000 population 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Overview of last 50 years World population grew faster than it has ever grown before or ever will grow again. Broadly similar patterns of population change across developing countries. Key exception is slower fertility decline in Sub-Saharan Africa This period should be important in understanding links between population and development.
What happened to food availability during this period of unprecedented population growth?
350 300 250 200 150 100 World Food Production 1961-2012 (1961=100) 344 230 150 Food and Agriculture Organization 50 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
450 400 350 300 250 200 South Asia Food Production 1961-2012 (1961=100) 422 284 150 149 100 Food and Agriculture Organization 50 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
450 400 350 300 250 200 Africa Food Production 1961-2012 (1961=100) 430 371 150 116 100 Food and Agriculture Organization 50 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
What has happened to poverty?
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Percent in Poverty, 1981-2010 Low and Middle Income Countries < $1.25 per day < $2.00 per day World Bank estimates 19811984198719901993199619992002200520082011 40.7% 20.6%
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Percent in Poverty by Region, 1981-2010 <$1.25 per day Latin America East Asia World Bank estimates Sub-Saharan Africa 48.5 31.0 South Asia 12.5 5.5 19811984198719901993199619992002200520082011
4.0 3.5 Number in Poverty (Billions) Low and Middle Income Countries 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 < $2.00 per day < $1.25 per day < $1.25 per day (excluding China) World Bank estimates 2.5 1.3 1.1 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
What has happened to education in developing countries?
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Percentage of cohort with primary schooling, Brazil Femal e Male Note that school-aged population grew at close to 4% per year for much of this period Census data via IPUMS- International 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 Year age 10 72% 64%
1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Proportion of cohort with primary schooling, Thailand Male Femal e Similar patters are seen in all regions, including Africa rapid increases in schooling, with narrowing of gender gap Census data via IPUMS- International 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 Year age 10 22
Fertility decline and investments in children Increase in education is directly related to declines in fertility Transition from large numbers of children with low investments to smaller families with higher investments This is a major component of economic development
Lessons of last 50 years Unprecedented population growth did not lead to increases in starvation or poverty or stagnation in education Reasons Major technological advances Market responses Globalization Declines in fertility, increases in education Many caveats: Unequal outcomes across countries and within countries Environmental problems, climate change Recent increases in commodity prices
Post-2015 Demographic Change Demography of children and youth Demography of working-age population Regional variation Implications for Post-2015 Development Goals
Billion 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 World population by age, 1950-2050 Medium variant projections 65+ Working age (15-64) Children (0-14) 19501960197019801990200020102020203020402050
Billion 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 World population by age, 2015-65+ Middle working age (25-44) Children (0-14) 2030 Total increase=1.1 billion (15.0%) Older working age (45-64) Youth (15-24) +0.37 (61.0%) +0.37 (24.8%) +0.20 (9.4%) +0.09 (7.3%) +0.08 (4.0%) 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% Increase in population 0-14 over 15 year periods 41% 18% 12% 3% 4% World 54% 26% 47% 19% 10% 10% -3% -6% Latin America Asia -5% -5% 49% 56% 46% 44% 32% SS Africa 1955-1970 1970-1985 1985-2000
Implications for development goals 2015-2030 Rate of growth of child population is much lower than in previous decades. This should make it easier to make further progress on goals such as reduction of child mortality, universal primary education Some regions, including Sub-Saharan Africa, will continue to have rapid growth of children and youth populations (but at lower rates than previous periods)
Population and employment, 2015-2030 David Lam and Murray Leibbrandt, Global Demographic Trends and Their Implications for Employment, background paper prepared for the High Level Panel on the Post-2015 Development Agenda, May 2013
Increase in working-age population (15-64) over 15 year periods 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 51% 45% 41% 39% 32% 29% 27% 25% 14% 14% 54% 52% 53% 47% 47% 38% 36% 33% 26% 11% 1955-1970 1970-1985 1985-2000 0% World Latin America Asia SS Africa
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% Growth of working-age population, 2015-2030 Total 15-24 25-44 45-64 25% 14% 14% 7% 9% 11% -4% 34% 11% -1% 5% 27% 53% 53% 46% 65%
Demography of labor market 2015-2030 The world s working-age population will increase by 650 million, a 14% increase We will need over 40 million jobs per year to maintain current employment rates Sub-Saharan Africa will need 1.6 million new jobs per month by 2025-2030 This is a challenge, but: Working-age population increased by 960 million between 2000 and 2015, an increase of 25% Youth component is growing at a slower rate than overall working-age population in all regions
Population and Development 2015-2030 Reasons for optimism The world experienced its largest improvements in standards of living during a period of even more rapid population growth Child and youth populations have stopped growing in most regions, relieving pressure on health services, schools, and youth employment Remaining challenges Continued rapid growth of children and youth in some regions mean that we will need increased investments in child health, schooling, and employment creation An extra 1.1 billion people will continue to put pressure on resources and environment,