Introduction Focus The winds of change may be sweeping across the Canadian political landscape. What was once thought of as improbable may soon become possible. This News in Review feature looks at the growing frustration with Canada s first-pastthe-post electoral system and the possible introduction of proportional representation to address Canada s democratic deficit. In his play Jumpers, Tom Stoppard puts society s assumptions about democracy to the test when one of his characters says, It s not the voting that s democracy. It s the counting (Jumpers, Act 1). While Stoppard s quote is presented comically, it is eerily appropriate for Canadians who are currently asking themselves if their votes are really being counted. Does Every Vote Count? Many people believe that Canadian democracy, founded on the British parliamentary model, has become antiquated and archaic. While certain of the Westminster institutions continue to hold their merit, the electoral system itself is raising calls for dramatic transformation. Why? Because, when put However, while this sounds reasonable, critics of the system point out that FPTP unfairly rewards parties with phony majorities, distorts the real election results when compared with the popular vote, and encourages regionalism. Take a look at the results of the 2004 election in the table below for a better understanding of these concerns. The 2004 election resulted in the formation of a Liberal minority government. Because they won less than half of the seats in the House, the Liberals would have to count on the support of other parties if they wanted to form a government and pass legislation. They came up 20 seats short of the magic number of 155 needed to form a majority government. In Canada, majorities rule, and, if past statistics tell the story, Party Seats Won % of Seats in % of the H. of Commons Popular Vote Liberal 135 44 36.71 Conservative 99 32 29.61 Bloc Québécois 54 18 12.40 NDP 19 6 15.69 Other 1.32 5.60 Total 308 100 100 Source: Canada Votes www.cbc.ca under the political microscope, it appears that many Canadians are not getting what they are voting for. Canada uses the first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system. Put simply, Canada is sectioned off into 308 different electoral districts. The candidate who wins the most votes in each district earns a seat in the House of Commons. Advocates for FPTP like the ease involved in electing and forming governments. the Liberals only needed a modest boost in the popular vote to take advantage of the FPTP system and win a majority. Notice how the percentage of the popular vote is exaggerated when it is translated into seats in the House of Commons for the Liberals. Scan down further and look at the success of the Bloc Québécois. Since they are a regional party, all of their votes were concentrated in the province of Quebec, CBC News in Review September 2004 Page 18
Quote Elections are to democracy what weddings are to marriage. In democracy, as in marriage, you have to work at it or lose it. Joe Schlesinger, Time Zones: A Journalist in the World, 1990 and the Bloc was able to win 54 seats in the House. Meanwhile the NDP, with a broad base of support across Canada, managed to beat the Bloc in terms of the popular vote but only won a fraction of the seats in the House. These kinds of discrepancies have led some people to express their frustration with FPTP and have raised the call for electoral reform. A Made in Canada Solution Drawing on voter frustration, a citizens group called Fair Vote Canada has emerged as a powerful voice for the electoral reform movement. It wants the government to enter into a meaningful dialogue with voters on election reform followed by a referendum on the implementation of a fair voting system. As well, the Law Commission of Canada has published a report that is sharply critical of FPTP and has called on the government to make the current electoral system more proportional. Their made in Canada solution calls for a Parliament composed of two thirds of MPs selected in riding elections and one third selected from party lists based on the proportion of the popular vote that each party earns. What s Next? It is likely that a modified form of proportional representation (PR) will be introduced at the provincial level before anything happens at the national level. Britain, which has found itself in the same predicament as Canada, has introduced proportional voting in Scottish and Welsh elections. In Canada, it is likely that the five provinces mentioned earlier will find a way to incorporate proportional voting, perhaps by their next elections. It is unlikely that a purely proportional model would be introduced federally. What is more likely is a blend of FPTP and PR. Conclusion Advocates for PR believe that voters will feel that their voices are being counted in a proportional system. In turn, PR could foster a sense of responsibility and more active involvement by more people in the political process. Time will tell if PR is a remedy for the democratic deficit or just another political trend. However, according to Larry Gordon of Fair Vote Canada, we are at the tipping point on election reform (The Globe and Mail, April 14, 2004). In Canada, elections and governance may soon change dramatically. Questions 1. What problems are associated with FPTP? 2. What steps are being taken in Canada to bring about remedies for the democratic deficit? 3. Consider the Tom Stoppard quote at the beginning of the article. How does the quote reflect the political reality in Canada? 4. As a young and/or future voter, how important an issue is PR to you? Explain. CBC News in Review September 2004 Page 19
Video Review Respond to the questions on this page as you view the video. Be prepared to discuss your findings. 1. Why are electoral reform movements gathering momentum in Canada? 2. Why was the British Columbia Citizens Assembly formed? 3. What will B.C. do with the recommendations of the Citizens Assembly? Did you know... Rep by Pop was a major political battle cry in Canada West (Ontario) before Confederation? 4. What is the electoral model that we inherited from Britain called? 5. What does Heather MacIvor mean when she refers to disproportional results? 6. Name the five provinces leading the movement toward electoral reform. 7. Briefly describe the made in Canada model of proportional representation. 8. What are Brian Crowley s concerns about a movement toward proportional representation? 9. What is a coalition government? Do you think coalitions can work in Canada? 10. Political scientist Brian Crowley says any reform requires people who have won under the old system to volunteer to give it up. Do you think that the Liberals, the party that consistently wins the most seats in Parliament, will agree to proportional representation? Explain. CBC News in Review September 2004 Page 20
Majority and Minority Governments in Canada CBC Archives To learn more about elections in Canada and see actual footage of past election campaigns, go to www.cbc.ca/ archives and click on elections. You might also visit the official Elections Canada site at www.elections.ca for information about past elections, your own electoral district, and materials for young voters. In order to fully come to grips with the way Canadians are governed it is important to draw a distinction between majority and minority governments. Canada currently uses the first-past-thepost (FPTP) or single-member plurality (SMP) system. In this system, candidates compete in ridings, with the candidate who wins the most votes in a riding winning a seat in the House of Commons. It is a very efficient way of selecting a government. However, some question its fairness. The goal of the larger political parties is to have as many of their candidates as possible win in their ridings. If a party can manage to win more than half the seats in the House of Commons, they can form a majority government and pass legislation unimpeded by the opposition. However, if a party wins the most seats, but not a majority of the seats in the House, they form a minority government. In this case, the governing party needs to strike deals with other parties if they hope to maintain the confidence of the House and pass legislation. Since Confederation, Canada has had 28 majority governments and only 10 minority governments. Majority governments are the trend in the FPTP system since they are a reflection of riding victories more than a reflection of popular vote. In the same period, only four governments have won the majority of the popular vote and the majority of seats in the House of Commons. Canadians are often timid when it comes to minority governments. Since the minority party is relying on the support of other parties, many political observers fear that squabbling and bickering will lead to legislative gridlock or the defeat of the government in a confidence vote that would result in an early election. Also, since power is more or less shared, questions of accountability often arise. Thus, minority governments are seen as potentially unstable and lacking in accountability. Some feel they are too weak in times of crisis or war. Despite the fact that minority governments are often a cause for concern for many, the track record of Canadian minority governments is quite impressive. Minority governments have managed to pass legislation dealing with pensions, universal health care, loans to university students, and economic nationalism. In fact, 30 academic experts consulted by the Institute for Research on Public Policy to determine the effectiveness of minority governments concluded that minority governments have passed some of the most important legislation in our nation s history. According to the experts, the top achiever was Prime Minister Lester Pearson, who led two minority governments in the 1960s. He managed to deal with complex policy issues that included medicare, the Canada Pension Plan, the new Canadian flag, the Royal Commission on Bilingualism and Biculturalism, and the Canada-U.S. Auto Pact (Canada and the World Backgrounder, January 1, 2004). It appears that minority governments can work for Canadians. If political parties are willing to put aside their differences and work together, alliances can be built and the country can be governed with efficiency, transparency, and accountability. CBC News in Review September 2004 Page 21
To Consider 1. What is a majority government? What is a minority government? 2. Which style of government do most Canadians seem to prefer? Why? 3. How effective have minority governments been in the past? 4. The introduction of an electoral system involving a degree of proportional representation would likely mean more minority governments. What do you think of this prospect? CBC News in Review September 2004 Page 22
First-Past-the-Post Controversy Take a look at the controversial firstpast-the-post (FPTP) electoral results and issues and answer the questions that follow. Disproportional Representation Federal Results The Liberals managed to win three straight majority governments in the 1990s despite never winning more than 41 per cent of the popular vote. In the 1993 federal election, the Bloc Québécois, which ran exclusively in Quebec, won enough seats to become the official opposition despite only garnering 14 per cent of the national vote. Meanwhile, the Progressive Conservatives, with 16 per cent of the vote, won only two seats. In the 1997 federal election, the Liberals won 49 per cent of the popular vote in Ontario but took 98 per cent of the seats in the province. Despite the fact that majority governments have been common in Canada over the last 80 years, there have been only four occasions 1940, 1949, 1958, and 1984 when a majority government was elected by the majority of Canadian voters. In the 2004 federal election, it took 110 000 votes to elect an NDP candidate to the House of Commons. The Green Party failed to win a seat despite earning 580 000 votes across Canada. Compare those numbers with the Conservatives, who earned a seat for every 40 000 votes, the Liberals with a seat for every 37 000 votes, and the Bloc Québécois with a seat for every 31 000 votes and it becomes clear that not all votes are equal in Canadian elections. Provincial Results According to Fair Vote Canada, 33 of the 54 provincial elections between 1980 and 2000 produced phony majorities, where one party formed a majority government without winning the majority of the votes. In the 1998 Quebec election, the Parti Québécois won 26 more seats than the Liberals despite the fact that more people voted for the Liberals. In the 1987 New Brunswick election, the Liberals won 60 per cent of the vote and all of the seats in the provincial legislature. In 1999, the Nova Scotia Progressive Conservatives won 39 per cent of the popular vote but took almost 60 per cent of the seats in the legislature. In 1996, the NDP in British Columbia finished second to the Liberals in the popular vote, with 39.5 per cent, but were awarded a majority government with 52 per cent of the seats. The Liberals got their turn to benefit by FPTP in 2001 when they won 58 per cent of the vote and 97 per cent of the seats. Wasted Votes and Strategic Voting FPTP carries with it two very unfortunate side effects: wasted votes and strategic voting. Votes are wasted when a candidate wins in a riding despite failing to win a majority of the votes in the district. This is a common phenomenon in Canada where each district often has many candidates vying for a seat in the House. In FPTP, the winner takes all even if they only win by one vote and the people who voted for the losing candidates see their votes fall with their candidates. The other prob- CBC News in Review September 2004 Page 23
lem associated with FPTP is strategic voting. Some Canadians have voted against their own political beliefs because they do not want to see the front-running candidate in their district win power. Thus, they strategically vote for the candidate who is most likely to beat the candidate they dislike instead of voting according to party platform or political affiliation. It is a risky and often unsatisfactory approach to dealing with the problems of FPTP. Making Every Vote Count Some political insiders believe that the solution to the problem would be to introduce an electoral system that awards seats in Parliament as a reflection of the percentage of the popular vote earned by each party. This type of system is referred to as proportional representation (PR). Most modern democracies use some sort of proportional system. In fact, only Canada, Britain, the United States, and India still use FPTP at the national level; everyone else has turned to some variation of PR for national elections. However, the climate is ripe for change. While not coming out in favour of PR, Liberal Prime Minister Martin is taking steps to address what he has termed the democratic deficit. This includes encouraging free votes for MPs in the House of Commons, the introduction of an independent ethics commissioner, greater independence for parliamentary committees, and a review of major government appointments. He is also willing to enter into a public debate on electoral reform, saying, I think that s essential in terms of engaging Canadians, whether it s proportional representation, whether it s fixed-term limits, whether it s the role of MPs (www.fairvote canada.org). In the meantime, the Conservatives, the New Democratic Party, and the Green Party have either endorsed or expressed an openness to a proportional system. In the provinces, five governments are actively pursuing electoral reform: British Columbia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Quebec, and Ontario. British Columbia is taking a major leadership role by forming a Citizens Assembly whose recommendations will be put to a referendum in 2005. Analysis 1. What are your personal reactions to the distorted results that are produced by the FPTP system? Which result do you find most surprising? Why? 2. Briefly explain wasted votes and strategic votes. 3. In your notebook outline your response to the proportional representation idea? Be specific and detailed. CBC News in Review September 2004 Page 24
Can PR Help to Improve Democracy in Canada? Definition Franchise is the right to vote in elections. Disenfranchised suggests not having the right to vote or having the right taken away or nullified. Voter Turnout One criticism of the first-past-the-post (FPTP) system is that it disenfranchises so many voters that they lose interest in the political process. This is reflected in the statistics on voter turnout listed below. Voter Turnout in the Last Five Federal Elections by Province (%) Province/Territory 2004 2000 1997 1993 1988 Alberta 59 60 59 65 75 British Columbia 64 63 66 68 79 Manitoba 57 62 63 69 75 New Brunswick 62 68 73 70 76 Nfld. and Labrador 49 57 55 55 67 Nova Scotia 62 63 69 65 75 Ontario 62 58 66 68 75 Prince Edward Island 71 73 73 73 85 Quebec 59 64 73 77 75 Saskatchewan 59 62 65 69 78 Northwest Territories 48 52 59 63 71 Nunavut 43 54 - - - Yukon Territory 60 64 70 70 78 Total* 60.5 61.2 67 69.6 75.3 *All numbers have been rounded to whole numbers except in the case of the national totals on the last line. Source: Elections Canada www.elections.ca 2004 numbers Elections Canada / Election Night Results A brief look at the bottom line of the chart shows the decline in voter turnout since the 1988 election. In fact, the voter turnout for the 2004 election was the lowest since Confederation. Remember, this was a hard-fought election with three new leaders! Among the 29 members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Canada has consistently ranked around 20th in terms of voter turnout (Canada and the World Backgrounder, September 1, 2000). Some critics of FPTP feel that people are not voting because the candidate they prefer does not have a chance of winning in their riding. Based on this assumption, some reformers are suggesting the introduction of some variation of proportional representation (PR) to boost the level of interest at election time and to make every vote count in each election. A new system, like the one recommended by the Law Commission of Canada, would involve a blend of FPTP and PR. Voters would cast two CBC News in Review September 2004 Page 25
votes: one for a candidate and one for a political party. Thus, if their candidate loses in the riding race, at least their proportional vote would be counted. A blended FPTP and PR system might help to improve the representation of women and minority groups in Canada s Parliament. Women in particular are dramatically under-represented in the House of Commons. Despite composing 52 per cent of the population, women occupy a mere 21 per cent of the seats in the House. In a recent survey of 182 nations, Canada ranked 36th in terms of female representation in government, well behind number-one-ranked Sweden with 45.3 per cent (Globe and Mail, March 7, 2003). Some critics of FPTP claim that the system encourages parties to be overly conservative in their candidate selections. If the system were proportional, with parties compiling lists of candidates, parties could ensure that women are represented more equitably. The same holds true for visible minorities. Others believe that the real reason Canadians are steering clear of the ballot box is because of broken promises and government corruption. People have become cynical about the political process and do not trust that political parties will keep their promises. Unfortunately, there is no shortage of broken promises to choose from. Here are two classic examples: 1974 Pierre Trudeau promised not to introduce wage and price controls in the election and then introduced them once in power. 1994 Jean Chrétien promised to scrap the dreaded Goods and Services Tax (GST) but once in power failed to do so. Broken promises are just a part of the growing public cynicism for the political process. Scandals are also a factor. Canadians have grown skeptical about where their tax money is going when they hear about Human Resources Development Canada being unable to account for grant money, the gun registry going wildly over budget, and government sponsorship money being paid to companies that did no work. While one would think that scandals would get more people out to vote, the opposite seems to be the case in Canada at the present time. In the end, more and more people feel they are out of the loop when it comes to politics. The Greek philosopher Aristotle once observed, If liberty and equality, as is thought by some, are chiefly to be found in democracy, they will be best attained when all persons alike share in the government to the utmost (Politics). One has to wonder how healthy Canadian democracy is when only 60 per cent of the voting public are willing to mark their ballot. Analysis 1. Take a look at the voter turnout number in your province. Does the number seem high or low? What explanations can you come up with for the voter turnout level in your province? How does your province compare with other provinces? 2. Do you think PR would encourage the election of women and minority candidates? Explain. 3. Are you likely to be a voter or non-voter in the future? Explain. 4. Do you think Canadians are becoming more cynical of the political process? Explain. CBC News in Review September 2004 Page 26
The Election Reform Movement Update In September 2004, NDP leader Jack Layton promised to promote a plan in the House of Commons to form a national citizens assembly to make recommendations for electoral reform in a future national referendum. The British Columbia Liberal Party had to swallow a bitter pill after the 1996 election. Despite winning more votes than the NDP, the Liberals found themselves with fewer seats in the legislature than their rivals. This came as a result of the first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system that saw the NDP win more seats while the Liberals won more votes. Things changed in 2001 when the Liberals, by including democratic reform in their party platform, turned the tables on the NDP and won the election. This time FPTP saw them convert 58 per cent of the vote into 77 seats in the legislature, reducing the NDP to just two seats (www.elections.bc.ca). Since that time, Premier Gordon Campbell s government has taken the lead on democratic reform. The goal: to make government more accountable to the people it represents. The cornerstone of the Liberal plan has been the formation of a Citizens Assembly on Electoral Reform. One hundred and sixty citizens were selected randomly from British Columbia s 79 electoral districts. The group began meeting in January 2004 and is expected to deliver a report on election reform by the end of the year. If the assembly decides that B.C. needs a new electoral system, a referendum question will be drafted and put to the people in 2005. In 2000, a group of citizens frustrated with the FPTP system formed Fair Vote Canada (FVC). The organization s goal is to gain broad support for a national process to enable Canadian voters to choose which voting system to use in electing their representatives (www.fairvotecanada.org). Fair Vote Canada believes that FPTP is inherently unfair, while alternatives like proportional representation (PR) could better meet the wishes of the Canadian electorate. Since 2000, FVC has become the citizen s voice for electoral reform, and its position has the support of the prestigious Law Commission of Canada. In spring 2004, the Law Commission recommended scrapping FPTP for a mixed proportional system composed of riding representatives and popular vote representatives in the House of Commons. According to FVC, over 75 nations currently employ some form of proportional representation. Canada could structure an electoral system similar to Germany or New Zealand. Those nations employ a mixed proportional system like the one recommended by the Law Commission. In the meantime, FVC hopes that popular pressure and political will can combine to bring proportional representation into the arena of national debate and, in turn, to a national referendum. To Consider 1. What prompted the B.C. Liberals to include electoral reform in their 2001 election platform? 2. What role is the Citizens Assembly playing in the electoral reform movement in B.C.? 3. Why is Fair Vote Canada considered the citizen s voice? 4. What evidence is there that Fair Vote Canada may be on the right track when it comes to electoral reform? CBC News in Review September 2004 Page 27
Coming to Terms with Proportional Representation Results of the 2004 Federal Election Province Lib. Cons. Bloc Qué. NDP Indep. Total Seats Seats % Seats % Seats % Seats % Seats % Alberta 2 22 26 62 - - 0 10 - - 28 B.C. 8 29 22 36 - - 5 27 1 < 1 36 Manitoba 3 33 7 39 - - 4 23 - - 14 New Brunswick 7 45 2 31 - - 1 21 - - 10 Nfld. and Lab. 5 48 2 32 - - 0 17 - - 7 Nova Scotia 6 40 3 30 - - 2 28 - - 11 Ontario 75 45 24 31 - - 7 18 - - 106 PEI 4 53 0 31 - - 0 13 - - 4 Quebec 21 34 0 9 54 39 0 5 - - 75 Saskatchewan 1 27 13 42 - - 0 23 - - 14 NWT 1 40 0 17 - - 0 39-4 1 Nunavut 1 51 0 14 - - 0 15-19 1 Yukon Territory 1 46 0 21 - - 0 26-8 1 Total 135 36.7 99 29.6 54 12.4 19 15.7 1 < 1 308 Note: Over 5 per cent of voters cast ballots for parties or candidates other than the ones listed here. Source: Elections Canada / Library of Parliament / cbc.ca Legend % = percentage of votes < = less than Activity To get an idea of the discrepancy between seats won and popular vote, try the following activity. Use the bottom line of the results chart to gather your information. 1. Transfer the percentage of the popular vote and the number of seats for each party into the chart on the next page. CBC News in Review September 2004 Page 28
2. Take the number of seats won by each party in the election and divide that number by 308 (308 is the total number of seats in the House of Commons). Next, multiply that number by 100. This is the percentage of seats that each party has in the House of Commons. Put your answer in the chart below. For example: NDP 19 seats 19 / 308 X 100 = 6.17% of the seats in the House of Commons 3. If the electoral system in Canada were based on the popular vote the results of the 2004 election would have been very different. Next we want to calculate the number of seats that each party would have received if earning a seat were based on the popular vote. Here is what you do: take the percentage of the popular vote and multiply that number by 308. The easiest way to do this is to convert your percentage into a decimal by moving the decimal point to the left two spaces. For example: NDP 16% of popular vote.16 X 308 = 49.28 or 49 seats In other words, if the election were based on the popular vote, the NDP would have 49 seats in the House of Commons and not 19. Note: If you add the number of seats earned by the parties in this exercise the total may not equal 308. This is because some seats would go to parties and candidates not affiliated with the mainstream political parties in Canada. Election Activity 2004 Results Party % of vote # of seats % of seats in # of seats if results the House of were based on the Commons popular vote Liberal Conservative NDP 16 19 6.17 49 Bloc Québécois CBC News in Review September 2004 Page 29