Eagleton Institute of Politics Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey 191 Ryders Lane New Brunswick, New Jersey 08901-8557 eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu eagleton.poll@rutgers.edu 848-932-8940 Fax: 732-932-6778 IMMEDIATE RELEASE WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 9, 2015 EDITOR S NOTE: ATTENTION POLITICAL, ASSIGNMENT EDITORS, Poll Assistant Director Ashley Koning may be contacted at 908-872-1186 (cell), 848-932-8940 (office), or akoning@rutgers.edu. Poll Director David Redlawsk may be reached at 319-400-1134 (cell) or redlawsk@rutgers.edu. Questions and tables are available at http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu/rutgerseagleton-terrorism-immigration-dec2015. Find all releases at http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu, and visit our blog at http://eagletonpollblog.wordpress.com for additional commentary. Follow the Rutgers- Eagleton Poll on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/rutgerseagletonpoll and Twitter @EagletonPoll. NEW JERSEYANS SPLIT ON SYRIAN REFUGEES; MOST WORRIED ABOUT FUTURE TERRORIST ATTACKS Overall immigration views little affected; high marks for U.S. handling of terrorism Note: One-fifth of this was completed prior to the shooting in, California on Wednesday, Dec. 2. About half of all interviews had been completed by Friday, Dec. 4, when the FBI declared it was investigating the shooting as an act of terrorism. NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. In the midst of terror attacks at home and abroad, and following Gov. Chris Christie s demand that no Syrian refugees come to the state, New Jersey residents split evenly on whether to accept refugees from Syria, according to the latest. While 45 percent say New Jersey should remain open to refugees from the conflict in Syria, another 45 percent disagree, while 10 percent are unsure. Most of those who oppose Syrian refugee resettlement in New Jersey also support Christie s insistence that even refugee children should be barred. Only a quarter of those initially opposed to Syrian refugees in the state would make an exception for children. Feelings toward Syrian refugees do not necessarily go hand in hand with general attitudes toward immigration. While many oppose Syrian refugee resettlement, just 34 percent of Garden Staters think the number of immigrants in the state is too high, actually down seven points in the past four months; 49 percent now think the number is just right. Most either say immigrants make the overall quality of life here better (34 percent) or believe they do not have much of an effect either way (38 percent). Only 19 percent of New Jerseyans say immigrants make the quality of life in the Garden State worse. Over half of U.S. governors including New Jersey s own have said they will refuse to accept Syrian refugees in the wake of the Paris attacks, even though immigration policy is a federal, not state, responsibility, said Ashley Koning, assistant director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers. Opposition toward Syrian refugees has become, for some, a broader symbol of security and resistance to terrorism. Even New Jerseyans whose general attitudes toward immigration remain largely positive have reservations about harboring this specific group. Apprehension about Syrian refugees stems from significant concern over a future terror attack. 1
Eight in 10 worry that another attack will happen on American soil, while seven in 10 fear one will occur in or near New Jersey. As a precaution, almost all New Jerseyans (86 percent) support surveillance and security checks in public places like stadiums, movie theaters and shopping malls; this number is similar to other polls nationwide results. Despite these fears, most New Jerseyans unlike the rest of the country as reported in national polls believe the U.S. government is generally doing well in reducing the threat of terrorism. Results are from a statewide poll of 843 adults contacted by live callers on both landlines and cell phones from Nov. 30 to Dec. 6, 2015. The sample has a margin of error of +/-3.8 percentage points. Interviews were done in English and, when requested, Spanish. Key demographics drive views on refugees The Syrian refugee issue is certainly a partisan one: while 65 percent of Democrats believe New Jersey should continue to accept these individuals, 79 percent of Republicans take the opposite view. Independents most resemble the population as a whole, split 43 percent to 46 percent against. Place of birth has a strong impact on views. Those born outside the United States are only slightly more accepting of Syrian refugees than native born citizens 49 percent versus 45 percent. But they are much less likely to outright reject the refugees and more uncertain: 33 percent of foreign born residents, but 49 percent of U.S. natives, want the state to reject the refugees. Eighteen percent of those born outside the U.S. are unsure about accepting Syrian refugees, compared to 7 percent of natives. A similar pattern emerges among those with foreign born versus American born parents and nonwhite versus white residents. Willingness to accept the refugees decreases among older residents and increases with education. Immigration attitudes, fear of attacks linked to increased rejection of refugees While the Syrian refugee matter has not significantly influenced overall views on immigration, individuals who oppose one are also more likely to oppose the other. A large majority of those who say there are too many immigrants in New Jersey (74 percent) and those who say immigrants make the state s quality of life worse (81 percent) are against the continued acceptance of Syrian refugees in the state. Likewise, residents who say New Jersey should reject these refugees are more negative about immigrants, in general. Concern over future terror attacks and over how terrorism is handled also accompanies greater caution toward Syrian refugees. Half of those worried about an attack in the U.S. or New Jersey say the state should no longer accept Syrian refugees. While half of residents who say the government is doing 2
well at reducing terrorism believe New Jersey should accept Syrian refugees, six in 10 of those who say the government is not doing well oppose refugee resettlement here. There is no significant difference in refugee views between those interviewed before and those interviewed after the shooting. Terror concerns loom large, especially post-shooting While majorities of partisans of all stripes are concerned, Republicans are the most worried about attacks both in the U.S. and in New Jersey, followed by independents and then Democrats. Women, older residents, and those more negative about immigration are more worried about future attacks than their counterparts, as are those who disapprove of Syrian refugees in New Jersey and those who do not think the U.S. government is doing well in reducing terror threats. Fear jumps post-. While 29 percent of those interviewed before the shooting were very worried about another U.S. attack (another 44 percent somewhat), this number rises to 44 percent very worried (37 percent somewhat) among those interviewed after the attack. We were in the middle of polling when the shooting occurred, noted Koning. While concern of an attack was already high before the shooting, solidified and increased New Jerseyans fears both in terms of a possible attack anywhere in the U.S., as well as in our own state. More than eight in 10 support greater security checks and surveillance in public places, with little difference among demographic groups. Among those most worried about another attack, nine in 10 support such measures. How is the government handling terrorism? Over half of every group believes the U.S. government is doing well in its efforts to reduce the threat of terrorism. Democrats are slightly more likely to believe this (26 percent say very well, 46 percent say somewhat well), compared to independents (19 percent, very well) and Republicans (18 percent, very well). A majority of New Jerseyans who oppose accepting Syrian refugees and who are worried about future terrorist attacks are nonetheless satisfied with the way the government is handling the threat of terrorism, though to a lesser extent than their counterparts. # # # QUESTIONS AND TABLES START ON THE FOLLOWING PAGE 3
Questions and Tables The questions covered in the release of December 9, 2015 are listed below. Column percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. Respondents are New Jersey Adults; all percentages are of weighted results. [BLOCK A] [Order of question blocks A and B rotated to mitigate question order effects.] Q. In general, do you think the current number of immigrants in New Jersey is too high, too low, or just right? Dec Aug June Born in U.S. Outside U.S. Accept Syrian Refugees in NJ 2015 2015 2012 Yes No Yes No Should Should Not Too high 34% 41% 36% 38% 23% 29% 38% 12% 57% Too low 4% 2% 2% 4% 4% 3% 5% 9% 1% Just right 49% 44% 49% 47% 56% 54% 46% 68% 34% Don't know 13% 13% 13% 11% 17% 14% 12% 11% 8% Unwgt N= 824 850 1,180 660 151 279 531 351 378 Attack in U.S. Attack in NJ U.S. Handling Terrorism Shooting (12/2) San Bernardino a Terrorist Attack (12/4) Worried Not worried Worried Not worried Well Not Well Pre Post Pre Post Too high 37% 25% 41% 19% 30% 44% 35% 34% 34% 35% Too low 4% 6% 3% 7% 4% 5% 3% 4% 4% 4% Just right 47% 58% 45% 60% 53% 41% 48% 49% 50% 48% Don't know 13% 11% 12% 14% 13% 11% 14% 12% 12% 13% Unwt N= 656 162 589 227 534 268 170 654 399 425 Too high 25% 33% 52% 20% 35% 49% 28% 40% 36% 32% 26% 31% 39% 43% Too low 8% 3% 0% 9% 3% 3% 5% 4% 4% 5% 5% 3% 3% 6% Just right 57% 50% 35% 58% 50% 38% 55% 43% 48% 51% 58% 55% 42% 39% Don't know 10% 14% 13% 13% 12% 11% 13% 13% 12% 13% 11% 11% 16% 12% Unwt N= 253 385 173 178 446 164 388 436 547 254 176 176 251 221 Less Coll Grad Work Urban Suburb Exurban Phil/South Shore Too high 47% 28% 30% 31% 29% 35% 30% 34% 42% Too low 4% 5% 2% 6% 2% 5% 6% 4% 3% Just right 37% 55% 55% 52% 55% 49% 51% 50% 40% Don't know 13% 12% 13% 11% 14% 11% 14% 13% 15% Unwt N= 206 204 225 182 110 290 134 134 156 4
Q. Do you think that people who come to New Jersey from other countries make the overall quality of life in New Jersey better, worse, or do not have much of an effect? Dec Aug June Born in U.S. Outside U.S. Accept Syrian Refugees in NJ 2015 2015 2012 Yes No Yes No Should Should Not Better 34% 41% 32% 28% 54% 46% 27% 47% 21% Worse 19% 21% 25% 23% 7% 12% 23% 5% 35% Not much effect 38% 29% 35% 41% 32% 33% 42% 41% 36% Don't know 8% 9% 8% 9% 7% 8% 8% 7% 7% Unwgt N= 825 856 1,185 660 152 281 530 353 375 Attack in U.S. Attack in NJ U.S. Handling Terrorism Shooting (12/2) Attack (12/4) Worried Not worried Worried Not worried Well Not Well Pre Post Pre Post Better 32% 43% 29% 47% 38% 29% 28% 36% 33% 36% Worse 21% 12% 23% 8% 15% 29% 18% 19% 19% 19% No effect 39% 35% 39% 38% 40% 33% 42% 37% 40% 37% Don't know 8% 9% 8% 7% 7% 9% 12% 7% 9% 8% Unwt N= 656 163 588 229 535 267 171 654 400 425 Better 45% 33% 19% 47% 31% 26% 41% 29% 27% 45% 46% 38% 28% 24% Worse 12% 17% 35% 12% 17% 31% 16% 22% 22% 16% 12% 15% 25% 25% No effect 37% 39% 40% 36% 43% 35% 38% 39% 43% 32% 36% 41% 38% 40% Don't know 7% 10% 6% 5% 9% 9% 5% 11% 8% 8% 6% 7% 10% 11% Unwt N= 253 385 173 176 448 165 394 431 545 255 176 179 250 220 Less Coll Grad Work Urban Suburb Exurban Phil/South Shore Better 33% 26% 35% 44% 42% 43% 32% 26% 20% Worse 27% 15% 15% 18% 13% 21% 18% 16% 22% No effect 32% 50% 42% 30% 36% 31% 41% 51% 41% Don't know 8% 9% 7% 8% 9% 5% 8% 7% 16% Unwt N= 206 202 227 183 111 289 133 135 157 Q. Do you think New Jersey should or should not continue to accept refugees from Syria? Number of Immigrants Immigrant Impact on NJ Born in U.S. Outside U.S. in New Jersey Quality of Life Yes No Yes No Too high Just right Don't know Better Worse No effect Should 45% 45% 49% 48% 44% 16% 62% 43% 61% 11% 49% Should not 45% 49% 33% 38% 49% 74% 31% 31% 28% 81% 43% Don t know 10% 7% 18% 14% 7% 9% 7% 27% 11% 7% 9% Unwgt N= 810 652 147 271 528 284 377 103 250 163 313 5
Attack in U.S. Attack in NJ U.S. Handling Terrorism Shooting (12/2) Attack (12/4) Worried Not worried Worried Not worried Well Not Well Pre Post Pre Post Should 40% 68% 39% 61% 51% 34% 40% 47% 46% 45% Should not 50% 27% 51% 32% 38% 61% 52% 43% 46% 44% Don't know 10% 6% 11% 6% 12% 4% 9% 10% 8% 11% Unwt N= 644 161 578 226 527 261 168 642 390 420 Mo Dem Ind Rep Lib d Con Male Female White Non-wht. 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Should 65% 43% 18% 62% 48% 24% 49% 43% 43% 49% 53% 50% 38% 40% Should not 23% 46% 79% 30% 44% 70% 44% 45% 52% 35% 34% 42% 52% 52% Don t know 11% 11% 3% 8% 8% 6% 7% 12% 5% 15% 13% 8% 10% 8% Unwgt N= 250 383 167 176 439 161 385 425 533 253 173 172 244 221 Less Coll Grad Work Urban Suburb Exurban Phil/South Shore Should 35% 43% 51% 55% 54% 45% 48% 43% 39% Should not 50% 51% 41% 37% 31% 43% 45% 51% 56% Don t know 15% 6% 8% 8% 15% 12% 7% 6% 6% Unwgt N= 200 199 221 183 106 284 132 131 157 Q. Should New Jersey accept only Syrian refugee children, or should the state not accept any Syrian refugees at all? Only children 23% No refugees at all 73% Don't know 4% Unwgt N= 377 [BLOCK B] Q. How worried are you that there might be another terrorist attack in the United States? Are you: Born in U.S. Outside U.S. 6 Number of Immigrants in New Jersey Immigrant Impact on NJ Quality of Life Too Just Don't Yes No Yes No high right know Better Worse No effect Very worried 41% 41% 38% 42% 40% 54% 35% 33% 32% 61% 37% Somewhat worried 39% 39% 40% 38% 40% 31% 41% 50% 42% 26% 44% Not too worried 15% 14% 18% 16% 14% 12% 17% 12% 18% 10% 14% Not worried at all 6% 6% 4% 5% 6% 3% 6% 6% 8% 3% 5% Unwgt N= 836 670 153 284 538 288 389 108 257 163 326
Accept Syrian U.S. Handling Refugees in NJ Terrorism Shooting (12/2) Attack (12/4) Should Should not Well Not well Pre Post Pre Post Very worried 26% 54% 35% 55% 29% 44% 35% 46% Somewhat worried 44% 34% 44% 30% 44% 37% 40% 37% Not too worried 23% 8% 16% 10% 20% 14% 18% 12% Not worried at all 7% 4% 5% 5% 6% 5% 6% 5% Unwgt N= 358 380 541 272 173 663 404 432 Very worried 35% 40% 52% 34% 37% 54% 35% 46% 40% 42% 33% 44% 45% 41% Somewhat worried 41% 40% 34% 42% 42% 30% 37% 40% 41% 36% 40% 38% 39% 38% Not too worried 19% 14% 11% 18% 16% 9% 19% 11% 14% 16% 19% 11% 14% 15% Not worried at all 5% 7% 3% 6% 5% 7% 8% 3% 5% 6% 7% 7% 2% 6% Unwgt N= 259 389 173 180 454 167 395 441 549 261 179 176 255 226 Phil/ Less Coll Grad Work Urban Suburb Exurban South Shore Very worried 44% 44% 38% 35% 44% 42% 37% 37% 43% Somewhat worried 35% 32% 43% 47% 30% 39% 42% 45% 37% Not too worried 15% 19% 13% 14% 16% 14% 17% 12% 16% Not worried at all 6% 5% 6% 4% 10% 5% 4% 7% 4% Unwgt N= 206 208 229 186 110 295 135 135 161 Q. How worried are you that there might be another terrorist attack in or near New Jersey? Are you: Born in U.S. Outside U.S. Very worried 35% 36% 34% 37% 34% Somewhat worried 35% 36% 30% 33% 36% Not too worried 22% 21% 25% 21% 23% Not worried at all 8% 7% 11% 9% 7% Unwgt N= 834 669 152 283 537 Accept Syrian U.S. Handling Refugees in NJ Terrorism Shooting (12/2) Attack (12/4) Should Should not Well Not well Pre Post Pre Post Very worried 24% 45% 30% 48% 25% 38% 33% 37% Somewhat worried 35% 33% 38% 30% 39% 34% 33% 36% Not too worried 32% 13% 25% 13% 26% 21% 24% 20% Not worried at all 9% 8% 7% 9% 10% 8% 9% 7% Unwgt N= 357 380 543 270 172 662 403 431 7
Very worried 29% 34% 49% 30% 31% 50% 30% 40% 34% 38% 26% 41% 41% 34% Somewhat worried 35% 36% 31% 33% 40% 28% 31% 38% 39% 28% 28% 33% 37% 43% Not too worried 28% 21% 15% 26% 23% 14% 26% 18% 20% 25% 34% 16% 18% 17% Not worried at all 8% 9% 6% 12% 6% 8% 13% 3% 7% 9% 12% 10% 4% 6% Unwgt N= 256 389 173 180 453 166 395 439 547 261 179 176 254 225 Phil/ Less Coll Grad Work Urban Suburb Exurban South Shore Very worried 38% 37% 34% 31% 36% 41% 31% 28% 34% Somewhat worried 32% 25% 38% 47% 30% 34% 41% 33% 36% Not too worried 21% 29% 21% 16% 23% 19% 16% 31% 23% Not worried at all 9% 9% 7% 6% 11% 6% 12% 8% 6% Unwgt N= 205 206 230 186 110 295 134 135 160 Q. Do you support or oppose extensive surveillance and security checks in public places, such as stadiums, movie theaters and shopping malls, to try to prevent terrorist attacks? Born in U.S. Outside U.S. Yes No Yes No Support 86% 86% 84% 85% 86% Oppose 12% 12% 13% 12% 12% Don't know 3% 2% 3% 3% 2% Unwgt N= 836 668 155 286 536 Attack in U.S. Attack in NJ U.S. Handling Terrorism Shooting (12/2) Attack (12/4) Worried Not worried Worried Not worried Well Not Well Pre Post Pre Post Support 89% 72% 91% 74% 89% 81% 85% 86% 83% 88% Oppose 8% 27% 7% 23% 9% 17% 14% 11% 14% 10% Don't know 3% 1% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% Unwt N= 664 166 596 232 541 272 174 662 402 434 Support 83% 85% 90% 82% 87% 87% 81% 90% 86% 85% 82% 84% 89% 87% Oppose 15% 12% 8% 17% 11% 10% 16% 8% 12% 11% 16% 14% 9% 8% Don't know 3% 3% 2% 0% 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 4% 2% 2% 2% 4% Unwgt N= 259 387 174 181 452 167 395 441 547 263 179 179 253 225 8
Less Coll Grad Work Urban Suburb Exurban Phil/South Shore Support 92% 84% 83% 82% 82% 86% 85% 85% 88% Oppose 5% 15% 13% 17% 13% 12% 12% 11% 10% Don't know 3% 1% 4% 2% 5% 2% 2% 4% 2% Unwgt N= 207 209 228 185 112 296 132 136 160 Q. In general, how well do you think the U.S. government is doing in reducing the threat of terrorism: very well, somewhat well, not too well, or not at all well? Born in U.S. Outside U.S. Yes No Yes No Very well 21% 19% 26% 23% 19% Somewhat well 44% 46% 41% 44% 45% Not too well 19% 18% 20% 19% 19% Not well at all 13% 15% 9% 11% 14% Don t know 2% 2% 4% 3% 2% Unwgt N= 840 674 153 284 542 Accept Syrian Refugees in NJ Attack in U.S. Attack in NJ Shooting (12/2) Attack (12/4) Should Should not Worried Not worried Worried Not worried Pre Post Pre Post Very 27% 11% 19% 26% 19% 26% 23% 20% 24% 18% Somewhat 46% 44% 45% 44% 45% 45% 43% 45% 43% 46% Not too well 18% 21% 19% 17% 19% 18% 19% 19% 18% 19% Not at all 6% 22% 15% 7% 16% 7% 14% 13% 13% 14% Don't know 3% 2% 2% 6% 1% 4% 1% 3% 2% 3% Unwt N= 358 381 667 166 600 231 174 666 406 434 Very 26% 19% 18% 26% 21% 13% 22% 20% 19% 23% 20% 26% 21% 16% Somewhat 46% 45% 41% 39% 49% 39% 43% 46% 47% 41% 39% 44% 50% 45% Not too well 17% 19% 20% 22% 17% 23% 18% 19% 18% 20% 24% 15% 15% 21% Not at all 8% 15% 21% 12% 10% 25% 15% 12% 14% 13% 14% 12% 13% 16% Don t know 3% 3% 0% 1% 3% 1% 2% 3% 1% 4% 3% 3% 2% 3% Unwgt N= 261 389 173 183 456 166 398 442 551 262 179 178 256 227 9
Less Coll Grad Work Urban Suburb Exurban Phil/South Shore Very 19% 24% 21% 18% 22% 22% 26% 15% 18% Somewhat 46% 40% 46% 48% 38% 48% 45% 48% 40% Not too well 14% 20% 19% 23% 20% 19% 19% 17% 17% Not at all 18% 15% 11% 9% 13% 10% 10% 15% 23% Don t know 4% 2% 2% 3% 6% 1% 0% 5% 2% Unwgt N= 207 209 230 187 113 296 135 136 160 The was conducted by telephone using live callers November 30 December 6, 2015 with a scientifically selected random sample of 843 New Jersey adults, 18 or older. Respondents within a household are selected by asking randomly for the youngest adult male or female currently available. If the named gender is not available, the youngest adult of the other gender is interviewed. The poll was available in Spanish for respondents who requested it. This telephone poll included 505 landline and 338 cell phone adults, all acquired through random digit dialing using a sample obtained from Survey Sampling International. Distribution of household phone use in this sample is: Cell Only: 17% Dual Use, Reached on Cell: 23% Dual Use, Reached on LL: 55% Landline Only: 5% Data were weighted to the demographics of adults in New Jersey. Weights account for the probability of being selected within the sample frame and the probability of being sampled within a household, based on the number of individuals living in the household and the phone composition (cell, landline) of the household. The samples were weighted using a raking algorithm to several demographic variables reflecting the adult population parameters of the state of New Jersey: gender, race, age, and Hispanic ethnicity. The final weight, which combined all of the parameters mentioned, was trimmed at the 5 th and 95 th percentile so as to not accord too much weight to any one case or subset of cases. All results are reported with these weighted data. All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for the 843 adults is +/-3.4 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence interval. The adult sample weighting design effect is 1.29, making the adjusted margin of error +/- 3.8 percentage points for the adult sample. Thus if 50 percent of New Jersey adults in this sample favor a particular position, we would be 95 percent sure that the true figure is between 46.2 and 53.8 percent (50 +/-3.8) if all New Jersey adults had been interviewed, rather than just a sample. Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, or context effects. This was fielded in house by the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling. The questionnaire was developed and all data analyses were completed in house. The is paid for and sponsored by the Eagleton Institute of Politics, Rutgers University, a non-partisan academic center for the study of politics and the political process. Full questionnaires are available on request, and can also be accessed at the Eagleton Poll archive at www.eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu. For more information, please contact eagleton.poll@rutgers.edu. 10
Weighted Sample Characteristics 843 New Jersey Adults 33% Democrat 48% Male 27% 18-34 60% White 49% Independent 52% Female 25% 35-49 12% Black 18% Republican 29% 50-64 17% Hispanic 19% 65+ 11% Asian/Other/Multi 11