THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco, CA 94108-2814 (415) 392-5763 FAX: (415) 434-2541 EMAIL: fieldpoll@field.com www.field.com/fieldpollonline Release #2534 Release Date: Wednesday, April 13, 2016 WHILE CALIFORNIANS NOW SEE THE STATE HEADING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION, AN INCREASING PROPORTION BELIEVES THE COUNTRY IS SERIOUSLY OFF ON THE WRONG TRACK. By Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is subject to revocation if publication or broadcast takes place before release date or if contents are divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time. (ISSN 0195-4520) Californians have been taking a more upbeat assessment of the overall direction of their state in recent months. In the latest Field Poll a 52% majority of voters believes California is heading in the right direction, while 42% say it is on the wrong track. This follows a similar more positive than negative assessment observed earlier this year in January. Voters also continue to give high marks to the job that Jerry Brown is doing as Governor. The poll finds that 55% of the state's registered voters approve of Brown's performance overall, while 36% disapprove. Majorities of voters have now given Brown positive job marks in eleven consecutive Field Polls conducted over the past three years. The public's generally upbeat assessment of the state stands in marked contrast to their increasingly negative views about the overall direction of the country. Six in ten California voters (60%) now think the U.S. is seriously off on the wrong track, while just 32% see it moving in the right direction. This represents a deterioration in Californians' views about the direction of the nation since last December, when just 48% felt the U.S. was moving in the wrong direction. Voters' gloomy assessment of the direction of the country is derived primarily from the extremely pessimistic views of Republicans. While the poll finds Democratic voters offering a slightly more positive than negative assessment of the country's overall direction, the state's Republicans are overwhelmingly negative, with just 11% saying the U.S. is moving in the right direction and 83% believing it is off on the wrong track. Field Research Corporation is an Equal Opportunity Employer
Wednesday, April 13, 2016 Page 2 Most voters now see California heading in the right direction By a 52% to 42% margin, more voters now believe the state is moving in the right direction than believe it is off on the wrong track. This represents the second consecutive Field Poll in which voters have given an upbeat assessment to the state's overall direction. Views about the direction of the state remain highly partisan, with Democrats expressing a much more optimistic appraisal than Republicans. Among registered Democrats, about three times as many see California is moving in the right direction (71%) as being off on the wrong track (24%). The state's Republicans take an opposite view, with 76% saying they believe the state is on the wrong track, while just 21% think California is moving in the right direction. There are also significant regional differences in voter views among where California is heading. Among voters living in the state's coastal counties, 55% hold a positive view and 38% offer a negative appraisal. This contrasts with the views of inland county voters, who, by a 55% to 44% margin, feel the state is seriously off on the wrong track.
Wednesday, April 13, 2016 Page 3 Table 1 Trend in voter views about the direction that California is heading (among registered voters) Right direction Wrong track No opinion April 2016 52% 42 6 January 2016 50% 42 8 May 2015 40% 40 20 February 2015 50% 41 9 September 2014 43% 41 16 June 2014 41% 46 13 2013 (average) 44% 44 12 2012 (average) 30% 59 11 2011 (average) 24% 66 10 2010 (average) 13% 80 7 2009 (average) 17% 75 8 2008 (average) 22% 69 9 2007 (average) 45% 43 12 2006 (average) 37% 49 14 2005 (average) 31% 58 11 2004 (average) 39% 48 13 2003 (average) 20% 72 8 2002 (average) 37% 52 11 2001 (average) 43% 50 7 2000 (average) 58% 35 7 1999 (average) 52% 34 14 1998 (average) 48% 42 10 1997 (average) 36% 54 10 1996 (average) 39% 49 12 1995 (average) 32% 57 11 1994 (average) 21% 70 9 1993 (average) 11% 83 6 1992 (average) 7% 90 3 1989 (average) 50% 42 8 1988 (average) 52% 43 5 Party registration (April 2016) Democrats 71% 24 5 Republicans 21% 76 3 No party preference/others 54% 38 8 Area (April 2016) Coastal counties 55% 38 7 Inland counties 44% 55 1 Note: Surveys prior to 1996 conducted among all California adults, not just registered adults.
Wednesday, April 13, 2016 Page 4 Voters continue to give Governor Brown positive job performance marks Californians are also upbeat in their assessments of the job that Governor Brown is doing. The current poll finds 55% of the state's voters approving of the governor's performance overall, while 36% disapprove. This represents the eleventh consecutive time that majorities of voters have approved of the governor's job performance in Field Poll measures conducted since early 2013. Views of the Democratic governor remain highly partisan. Fellow Democrats hold very positive assessments, with 74% approving and just 17% disapproving of Brown. Non-partisan voters also offer more positive than negative assessments, 57% to 33%. On the other hand, Republican views are much more negative, with 24% approving and 69% disapproving of the job Brown is doing. Table 2 Trend of Brown's job performance ratings during his current tenure as Governor (among California registered voters) Approve Disapprove No opinion April 2016 55% 36 9 January 2016 56% 30 14 October 2015 56% 32 12 May 2015 58% 26 16 February 2015 56% 32 12 September 2014 58% 36 6 June 2014 54% 29 17 April 2014 59% 32 9 December 2013 58% 33 9 July 2013 51% 33 16 February 2013 57% 31 12 October 2012 46% 37 17 September 2012 46% 37 17 July 2012 44% 42 14 Late May 2012 43% 40 17 February 2012 45% 38 17 November 2011 47% 36 17 September 2011 49% 32 19 June 2011 46% 31 23 March 2011 48% 21 31 Party registration (April 2016) Democrats 74% 17 9 Republicans 24% 69 7 No party preference/others 57% 33 10
Wednesday, April 13, 2016 Page 5 Californians much more negative in their appraisals of the direction of the country In contrast to their upbeat assessments of the direction of the state and the job performance of the governor, Californians hold a much more pessimistic view of the direction of the country. Nearly twice as many voters (60%) maintain that the U.S. is seriously off on the wrong track as think the U.S. is moving in the right direction (32%). This represents a deterioration in voter views about the direction of the country since December, when 48% felt the U.S. was on the wrong track. The increasingly gloomy assessment of the direction of the country is driven primarily by the extremely pessimistic views of Republicans. While the poll finds Democratic voters offering a slightly more positive than negative assessment of the country's overall direction, the state's Republicans take an overwhelmingly negative view, with just 11% saying the U.S. is moving in the right direction and 83% maintaining it is seriously off on the wrong track.
Wednesday, April 13, 2016 Page 6 Table 3 Are things in the U.S. generally going in the right direction or do you feel things are seriously off on the wrong track? (among California registered voters) Right direction Wrong track No opinion April 2016 32% 60 8 January 2016 39% 48 13 February 2015 41% 43 16 September 2014 36% 51 13 June 2014 34% 52 14 December 2013 33% 55 12 February 2013 48% 44 8 September 2012 52% 41 7 Early July 2012 35% 51 14 February 2012 38% 52 10 November 2011 19% 70 11 September 2011 21% 68 11 March 2011 33% 56 11 September 2010 34% 55 11 July 2010 33% 53 14 January 2010 41% 49 10 2009 (average) 45% 44 11 2008 (average) 16% 75 9 2007 (average) 25% 65 10 2006 (average) 30% 60 10 2005 (average) 33% 59 8 2004 (average) 38% 53 9 2003 (average) 44% 50 6 2002 (average) 51% 37 12 December 2001 68% 27 5 September 2001 (pre-9/11 attack) 43% 49 8 January 2001 55% 34 11 2000 (average) 63% 28 9 1999 (average) 54% 37 9 1998 (average) 57% 32 11 1997 (average) 44% 45 11 1996 (average) 34% 49 17 1995 (average) 33% 54 13 1994 (average) 41% 50 9 1993 (average) 27% 64 9 1992 (average) 14% 81 5 1991 (average) 14% 78 7 1990 (average) 30% 63 7 1989 (average) 49% 43 8 1988 (average) 42% 53 5 Party registration (April 2016) Democrats 46% 42 12 Republicans 11% 83 6 No party preference/others 30% 65 5 Note: Surveys prior to 1996 conducted among all California adults. 30
Wednesday, April 13, 2016 Page 7 Methodological Details Information About The Survey The findings in this report come from a Field Poll completed March 24 April 3, 2016 among 800 registered voters in California. In order to avoid respondent fatigue and address a wide range of issues, the overall sample was divided into two random subsamples of 400 registered voters on some of the questions in this report. Interviews were administered by telephone in English and Spanish by live interviewers calling from the Davis Research central location call center in Calabasas. Individual voters were sampled at random from listings derived from the statewide voter registration rolls. Once a voter's name and telephone number had been selected, interviews were attempted with voters on their landline or cell phone depending on the source of the listing from the voter file and the preference of the voter. In this survey, about two-thirds of all voters interviewed (63%) completed the survey on their cell phone, while 37% were interviewed on a landline telephone. Up to four attempts were made to reach, screen and interview each randomly selected voter on different days and times of day during the interviewing period. After the completion of interviewing, the sample was weighted to align it to the demographic and geographic characteristics of the state's registered voter population. Sampling error estimates applicable to the results of any probability-based survey depend on sample size and the percentage distributions being examined. The maximum sampling error for results from the overall registered voter sample in this report is +/- 3.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, while the findings from each of the random subsamples of 400 registered voters have a maximum sampling error of +/- 5.0 percentage points. These estimates are based on survey findings in the middle of the sampling distribution (i.e., results at or near 50%). Percentages at or near either end of the tail of the distributions (i.e., results closer to 10% or 90%) have somewhat smaller margins of error. There are other potential sources of error in surveys of public opinion besides sampling error. However, the overall design and execution of this survey sought to minimize these other possible errors. The Field Poll was established in 1947 as The California Poll by Mervin Field. The Poll has operated continuously since then as an independent, non-partisan survey of California public opinion. The Field Poll receives financial support from leading California newspapers and television stations, who purchase the rights of first release to Field Poll reports in their primary viewer or readership markets. The Poll also receives funding from the University of California and California State University systems, who receive the data files from each Field Poll survey shortly after its completion for teaching and secondary research purposes, as well as from foundations, non-profit organizations, and others as part of the Poll's policy research sponsor program. Questions Asked Thinking about the country overall, do you think things in the U.S. are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things are seriously off on the wrong track?* Thinking about this state, do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things are seriously off on the wrong track?* Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jerry Brown is handling his job as Governor of California? * Asked of a random subsample of 400 registered voters.