The Future of American Communities: Outlook to 2050 PCBC Conference San Francisco, CA June 8, 2010 Presentation by Joel Kotkin, Distinguished Presidential Fellow, Chapman University
More Crowding to Come: US Population Growth 1960 2050 400,000,000 350,000,000 300,000,000 250,000,000 200,000,000 150,000,000 100,000,000 50,000,000 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2030 2050 Source: Bureau of the Census, CensusScope
Korea U.K. Canada Japan Germany Australia China U.S. Population Over 65 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Source: CIA Getting Older Slower 2020 2050
Labor Force Growth Growth in Age 15 64 45% United States, 42% 30% 15% 0% 15% China, 10% 30% Europe, 25% Korea, 30% 45% Japan, 44% 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 U.S. Census Bureau, International Database
U.S. Land Use 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Urban Agriculture Forest Rural Parks Other Rural Misc: Low Value 1949 1959 2002 USDA ERS
Inside America: Where Are We Headed? Continued shift of people to regions of opportunity with job growth and affordability Both growing urban niche, suburban domination Millenials, family and new localism Building future communities
Broader Measure of Unemployment Includes marginally attached, discouraged, and involuntary part time workers Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics New America Foundation Chart
Projected Jobs Deficit 22.8 Million Jobs 19.8 Million Jobs U.S. Chamber of Commerce, University of Kentucky Study New America Foundation Report
Job Growth, 2000 2009 Riverside Houston Washington, DC Phoenix Dallas Miami Seattle Atlanta New York Philadelphia Minneapolis Louisville Los Angeles Boston Chicago San Francisco Detroit 21.1% 10.2% 1.0% 1.1% 2.6% 4.0% 4.8% 5.1% 6.1% 0.0% 2.1% 1.3% 3.7% 10.1% 8.9% 12.6% 14.5% Praxis Strategy Group Analysis of BLS Current Employment Survey
Where the Growth Is
Voting with their Feet
Housing Price Declines, 2007 2009 0.4% 3.8% 8.2% 10.4% 18.6% 20.9% 28.0% 28.3% 28.3% National Assoc. of Realtors Annual Averages for Metropolitan Areas 38.7% 43.8%
Moving to Smaller Regions 2000 2008 Net Domestic Migration Rate 0.8% 2.6% 1.6% 3.2% 2.8% 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 2.4% 10.1% Praxis Strategy Group Analysis of U.S. Census Population Estimates
The Next Slum Chris Leinberger, the Atlantic, March 2008
If suburban life is undesirable, the suburbanites themselves seem blissfully unaware of it. Herbert Gans on suburbs and their critics Photo: Wootang01
Where would you choose to live? 33% 35% 18% 13% Suburb Close to City In a city Rural Community Suburbs farther out from city Source: National Survey on Communities conducted for Smart Growth America and National Association of Realtors
Source: Homeownership and Association Living: HOA Members and Homeowners Nationwide, Zogby International, Foundation for Community Association Research
What People Want: California Dreaming? Public Policy Institute of California, 2002
US Occupied Housing Stock 2000 & 2008 70% 60% 2000 2008 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Detached Attached Multi-Unit Other (Mobile, Etc.)
Occupied Housing Stock: Portland 2000 & 2008 (4 COUNTIES) 70% 60% 2000 2008 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Detached Attached Multi-Unit Other (Mobile, Etc.)
Suburban Pre-Lehman & Core Brothers City Growth: Losses 2000-8 MAJOR METROPOLITAN BY MARKET CLASSIFICATION AREAS: BY GEOGRAPHY Suburbs: Not Principal Cities 75% Pre WW2 Core Cities 0% Pre WW2 Core Cities with Suburbs 9% Suburban Core Cities 6% Suburbs: Principal Cities 10%
Price Changes by Geographical Sector 8 METROPOLITAN AREAS: 18 MONTHS 20% 15% 10% Median Price Change in Relation to Metropolitan Median Price Period: California 2008.07-2010.01 Others 2008.2Q-2009.4Q 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% ATL CHI LA POR SAC SD SEA SF Central Inner Suburbs Outer Suburbs 20%
Millennials rival Boomers 81.6 Population in Millions 81.0 57.3 Millennials (Age 12 30) Gen X (Age 31 44) Boomers (Age 45 64) U.S. Census Population Projections, 2008
Millennials Entering Middle Age U.S. Population Age 30 39 Millions 47 46 45 44 43 42 41 40 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 U.S. Census Population Projections, 2008
Moving From Principal Cities to Suburbs EDUCATION & AGE 20-29: 2008-9 (CENSUS BUREAU REPT.) 0-100 College Degree Age 20-29 -200-300 -400-500 -600 Thousands Moving from Principal Cities to Suburbs (Net)
Millennial Lifestyle Choices Millennials Older Generations Live Currently Big city Suburb Small city Country 11% 18% 15% 16% 31% 30% 38% 38% "Ideal" Place to Live Big city Suburb Small city Country 9% 17% 17% 17% 27% 29% 31% 43% National Survey by Frank N. Magid Associates Millennials defined as age 18 28
Immigration Is Driving American Demography The Foreign Born Population is at an All Time High 14.8% 14.7% Largest 7 Year Immigrant 37.9 13.6% 13.2% 11.6% Influx in U.S. History 31.1 12.6% Foreign Born Population (in Millions) Percent of Total Population 8.8% 6.9% 4.7% 6.2% 7.9% 11.1% 19.8 9.2 10.3 13.5 13.9 14.2 11.6 10.3 5.4% 9.7 9.6 14.1 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Center for Immigration Studies, 2007 27
The Millennial Generation is the Most Diverse in American History 50% 45% 40% 35% Percent of U.S. Population That Is African American, Hispanic, Asian Pacific Islander, American Indian, and Other; By Age December 2004 Echo Boomers Generation X Baby Boomers Pre-Baby Boomers 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 Current Population Survey, U.S. Census Bureau, Dec. 2004
Immigration Rates Top 15 Regions Annual Average, 2001 2008 Miami Los Angeles San Francisco New York Dallas Houston Washington Phoenix Chicago Atlanta Boston Seattle Riverside Detroit Philadelphia 2.1 2.5 3.3 5.2 4.8 4.6 4.1 5.8 6.0 6.5 6.5 7.5 7.4 8.0 Areas are MSA U.S. Census Population Estimates 10.1
Moving From Principal Cities to Suburbs ETHNICITY: 2008-9 (CENSUS BUREAU REPORT) 0-100 White-Non-Hispanic Hispanic African-American Asian -200-300 -400-500 -600-700 -800-900 Thousands Moving from Principal Cities to Suburbs (Net)
A Majority of Immigrants Now Reside In The Suburbs U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 American Community Survey
The New Face of Suburbia Plaza Mexico, Lynwood, CA Photo: kalavinka
Central Business District Employment Share New York Los Angeles Chicago San Francisco Philadelphia Boston Miami Washington Dallas Fort Atlanta Detroit Houston Seattle Phoenix Denver Kansas City Average (50 Largest) 2.5% 14.3% 12.2% 9.4% 11.1% 4.7% 4.0% 7.3% 4.5% 8.9% 11.3% 2.0% 12.2% 6.9% 9.7% 20.1% 18.7% Wendell Cox, Demographia analysis
Portland Employment Outside of CBD Central Business District Growth Central Business District Outside of CBD Total Growth in Metro Number of Jobs 935,200 977,800 4.6% 4.0% 86,800 84,700 2001 2006 2.4% Demographia Analysis
Declining Use of Transit New York Chicago Washington Boston Philadelphia Pittsburgh Minneapolis St. Paul Portland Atlanta Denver Los Angeles Seattle Detroit San Francisco Dallas Fort Worth All Metropolitan Areas over 1 million National Metropolitan Journey to Work on Transit 1980 2008 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
The Archipelago of Villages: Towards Smart Sprawl Housing near jobs Emphasis on families Strong role for village shopping streets and markets Provision of open space around the village core and housing estates Solving the problem of sprawl within the Sprawl
Redefining Sustainability:Humans Count Too Social Environmental Economic
The Way Things Are Smart growth is something people want. They just don t want it in their own neighborhood. A planner quoted in Fred Hirsch, The Social Limits to Growth
Reconstituting Suburbia Our downtown is what keeps us together. All of us feel we are at home here. It gives us an identity. Christine Jeffries, Pres. of the Development Partnership in Naperville, Il
1992 Ad for Valencia, CA I can be in my classroom one minute and riding my horse the next. I don t know whether I m a city or country girl.
Declining Mobility Share of population changing residence Pew Research Center
Key to the New Localism a vocation of uniqueness. Martin Buber
Farmer s Markets In 1977 California had four farmer s markets, it now has over 500 Studio City market
Millennials and the Family Sources of Happiness of 13 24 year olds 76 72 85% plan to get married 53 52 43 35 77% probably or definitely want children Associated Press/MTV Survey, 2007
90% of people over fifty would rather stay put than move AARP They don t want to move to Florida, and they want to stay close to the kids. What they are looking for is a funky suburban development funky but safe. Washington area developer Jeff Lee. Photo: Vlastula
In Manhattan, people with kids have nannies. In Queens, we have grandparents. Judy Markowitz, Energized Realty, Queens, NY Families tie cities and towns together.
Multi Generation Households Pew Research Center, Census Data
Multi Generation Households Pew Research Center, Census Data
Share of US Population Living Alone 1900 2008 Pew Research Center, Census Data
Staying Together Between 2000 and 2007, the number of people over 65 living with adult children increased by more than 50 percent. Ever more children and grandchildren serve as informal caregivers for their elderly relatives, while grandparents serve as mentors and watchful eyes over the young.
Coming Next: The Multigenerational Suburb Some of the basics of suburbs are there. Schools are important, but also people like the sense of place. But the basic amenities are children, grandchildren, where people go to church, where their work networks and friends are. Suburbia is going to be a melting pot, not just by race, but by ages and lifestyle. Randall Lewis, Lewis Development Company
Doubts Over Density GHG Emissions By Urban Area Sector Housing & Transport: Operations & Embodied 10 Annual Metric Tons per Capita 7 7.4 Central City (Apartments) Inner Suburbs (Attached) Outer Suburbs (Detached) Source: University of South Australia Study
Keeping the Middle Class in the City Photo: cinderellasg What we see is that the issue is not about race, black or white, but about squeezing the middle class. We like the trees and the small town community. That s what keeps the middle class family here. Neighborhood leader in Laurelton, NY
Rise in Telecommuting Forrester Research Projection 63 Million 34 Million 2009 2016
Green Telecommuting Everyone telecommuting 2 days per week saves: 1.35 billion gallons of gasoline 26 billion pounds CO2 Estimates from American Electronics Association & EPA
Growth in Microbusiness 1980 2000: self employed individuals expanded tenfold to include 16% of the workforce. 20 Million microenterprises by 2006, one for every six private sector workers.
Decentralization Critical to America "These little republics would be the main strength of the great one. We owe to them the vigor given to our revolution " Thomas Jefferson to John Tyler, 1810.
JOELKOTKIN.COM A vivid snapshot of America in 2050 focusing on the evolution of the more intimate units of American society families, towns, neighborhoods, industries. It is upon the success or failure of these communities that the American future rests.