RUSSIA AND THE WORLD
Also by Leo Cooper * POLITICAL ECONOMY OF SOVIET MILITARY POWER POWER AND POLITICS IN THE SOVIET UNION * SOVIET REFORMS AND BEYOND STAKHANOVITES - AND OTHERS: The Story of a Worker in the Soviet Union, 1939-1946 * From the same publishers
Russia and the World New State-of-Play on the International Stage Leo Cooper Senior Research Associate Contemporary Europe Research Centre and Centre for Russian and Euro-Asian Studies both at University of Melbourne, Australia Foreword by Leslie Holmes Afl
flfl First published in Great Britain 1999 by MACMILLAN PRESS LTD Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and London Companies and representatives throughout the world A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. ISBN 0-333-72067-9 & First published in the United States of America 1999 by ST. MARTIN'S PRESS, INC., Scholarly and Reference Division, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010 ISBN 0-312-21569-X Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Cooper, Leo, 1922- Russia and the world : new state-of-play on the international stage / Leo Cooper ; foreword by Leslie Holmes, p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-312-21569-X (cloth) 1. Russia (Federation) Foreign relations. I. Title. DK510.764.C66 1998 327.47 dc21 98-21077 CIP Leo Cooper 1999 Foreword Leslie Holmes 1999 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1P 9HE. Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The author has asserted his right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 Printed and bound in Great Britain by Antony Rowe Ltd, Chippenham, Wiltshire
Contents List of Tables vi Foreword by Leslie Holmes vii 1 The Setting of the Stage: An Introduction 1 2 From the Russian to the Soviet Empire, 1917-91 7 3 Period of Uncertainty, 1985-91 39 4 The Fall of an Empire 58 5 A New Military Policy 73 6 An Economy in Transition 95 7 Russia and the World 130 8 Russia and NATO 150 9 The Russian Idea - Toward a Civic Society 174 10 Toward a Cold War or a Cold Peace? 195 References 213 Index 220 v
List of Tables 6.1 Main Macroeconomic Indices for Russia in 1996 118 6.2 Major macroeconomic indices for the period 1996-2000 119 6.3 Preliminary results of Russia's foreign trade in 1996 122 VI
Foreword Between 1989 and 1991, communist power in Central and Eastern Europe and the USSR collapsed; a revolution had taken place. The domestic revolutions were soon followed by revolutions in international relations; with the collapse of the Warsaw Treaty Organisation and the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance, and the ending of the Cold War, an era had closed. Initially, many in both East and West were ecstatic about all these changes, with analysts and politicians alike talking of a 'New World Order' and even 'the end of history'. But the euphoria was short-lived, and soon the talk was of a new world disorder and the clash of civilisations. Of particular interest in this issue of the collapse of communism and the radical change in international relations is the demise of the USSR and the role played in the 1990s by its most significant successor state, Russia. All post-communist states have the legacy of communist rule to overcome; but most have found this just a little easier than Russia because of the bonding effects in formerly communist states that feel they are now more genuinely sovereign than before, or in formerly federal units that have recently become sovereign states in their own right. In contrast, Russia was the heart of a centuries-old empire, and the home of the first socialist revolution and Leninism. The simultaneous meltdown of communist power and the Soviet empire led to mixed reactions within Russia; while many initially welcomed the former, few were pleased about the latter. These mixed reactions have led to an identity crisis and increasing polarisation in Russia in the 1990s, with groups and individuals blaming each other for the loss of empire. Such recriminations mean that the development of a culture of compromise is proving even more difficult to achieve in Russia than in many other postcommunist states. This in turn makes the democratisation process more difficult, and hence increases the possibilities of an extremist coming to power in Russia. Were such a person to become the leader, he - and it would almost certainly be a man - would seek to resurrect at least some of Russia's former glory, as part of the attempt to overcome Russians' current identity problems. Since this might well involve Russian expansionism, the implications for international relations would be profound. Russia has already come vn
Vlll Foreword close to such a scenario in the 1990s, with the earlier popularity of Vladimir Zhirinovskii, and the strong performance of Gennadii Zyuganov in the 1996 presidential elections. So far, the existence of strong, more democratically inclined and forward-looking politicians such as Boris Yeltsin has helped to prevent such a development. While most reasonably-minded people around the world hope that such politicians will continue to dominate Russian politics, nothing can be taken for granted in the confusion and uncertainty of contemporary Russian politics. If it is remembered that Russia still possesses a substantial nuclear arsenal, the potential significance of domestic Russian politics for international relations comes even more sharply into focus. It is this significance that makes Leo Cooper's latest book so important and timely. Dr Cooper starts by providing a history of the USSR and its collapse, as a way of setting the scene for the contemporary domestic conflicts. He then considers the all-important role of the military, and the dangers of contemporary Russian military policy. He highlights the problems of the Russian economy, but also the fact that one of the very few issues about which most Russians agree is that they resent excessive interference by outsiders. In this context, of even greater concern to most Russians than what they perceive to be IMF meddling in their internal affairs are the eastward moves of NATO. The unifying and bonding effect of NATO expansion on Russian culture, and its ramifications for global politics, is justifiably one of Dr Cooper's principal foci in this study, as he examines the factors leading to increasing nationalism - the rise of 'the Russian Idea' - in recent years. Throughout this book, Leo Cooper builds on his earlier work on the Russian military, economy, culture and politics, producing a masterful synthesis that locates what is happening inside today's Russia within the larger international context. As ever, an important part of his approach is the attempt to look at both Russian domestic politics and the world beyond Russia through numerous Russian eyes, while also being very aware of Western interpretations. The comprehensiveness of the approach, the sensitivity to different perspectives, and the importance to us all of the subject matter make this book a significant contribution to the literature, and of relevance to anyone with an interest in the big questions of contemporary world politics. LESLIE HOLMES University of Melbourne