Obama and Democrats have clear advantage in 2012 election July 30, 2012
Methodology and Overview This presentation is based on a survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps. The survey of 900 likely 2012 voters (700 weighted) nationwide was conducted from July 21 25, 2012, and also includes an oversample of 200 unmarried women. Unless otherwise noted, margin of error= +/ 3.70 percentage points at 95% confidence. 2
100 Days The shift in Democratic fortunes since 2010 has been produced by a growing and deepening contempt for everything Republican. The Democrats standing with the public is relatively stable, but the pattern has left a pretty astonishing gap between the parties that is shaping the race, despite the economic slow down. Already unpopular Republicans see favorability drop out from underneath them, while Democrats maintain standing. Dead heat in Congressional race; Obama pulls away from Romney, hitting crucial percent mark. 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 3
Obama vote stable near percent most of this year I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential election in 2012, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? July 49 49 1/11/2011 4/12/2011 6/21/2011 10/18/2011 1/11/2012 5/1/2012 7/25/2012 Obama Romney 4
Romney hits ceiling below percent; more strong supporters for Obama Potential: 52% 37 Obama Not Obama 42 10 2 0 2 1 5 Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In Reach Peripheral Unreachable Potential: % 34 Romney Not Romney 7 2 2 2 3 3 Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In Reach Peripheral Unreachable 5
Obama and Romney at parity on economy, while Democrats trail GOP slightly Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Democrats/Barack Obama or the Republicans/Mitt Romney would do a better job with this issue The economy. The economy Obama/Democrats much better +1 Romney/Republicans much better +4 30 32 24 26 Obama Romney Democrats Republicans * In November 2010, the Republicans margin on the economy was 9 points more than double the current margin.
Obama and Romney at parity on economy, despite economy s weakness Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Barack Obama or the Mitt Romney would do a better job with this issue The economy. Obama much better The economy Romney much better +7 +1 +1 39 25 32 28 30 30 32 Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney May June July 7
Pluralities find Obama relatable half think shares my values, almost as many on your side Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think Barack Obama or Mitt Romney would do a better job with this issue. If you do not know, just tell me and we will move on to the next item. Romney much better Obama much better Net Sharing my values 37 27 38 49 +12 On your side 37 24 32 +7 The economy 32 30 +1 60 35 10 15 40 8
Race shaped by views of Republicans: they fall while Democrats hold steady Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with 100 meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and meaning not particularly warm or cold. Barack Obama Democratic Party Democrats in Congress Republican Party Republican Congress 2010 Election 56 53 53 51 51 51 51 49 49 42 42 42 40 42 42 40 51 51 54 51 52 51 51 51 49 49 42 42 42 42 39 39 40 40 39 1/12/2010 4/20/2010 7/29/2010 10/16/2010 2/9/2011 5/25/2011 10/18/2011 2/14/2012 7/25/2012 *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted in the past two years. Data represents MEAN ratings, likely voters.
Democrats have powerful image advantage over weakened Republicans in each area Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. President Congress Parties Very warm (75 100) Very cool (0 25) Mean: 51.5 Mean:.0 Mean:.4 Mean: 39.9 Mean:.8 Mean: 42.6 Net: +8 49 Net: -8 Net: -8 Net: -18 Net: -3 38 36 31 40 Net: -14 33 38 18 19 12 23 16 36 35 32 37 33 36 49 Barack Obama Mitt Romney Democrats in Congress Republican Congress Democratic Party Republican Party 10
Republicans in Congress : almost two-thirds disapprove; strong disapproval higher than total approval Do you approve or disapprove of the way Republicans in Congress are handling their job in charge of the House of Representatives? Total Approve Total Disapprove Strongly Approve Strongly Disapprove Republicans in Congress 34 40 26 28 12 16 55 38 36 13 64 65 64 67 60 59 68 36 37 33 32 27 28 31 25 26 11 9 9 9 9 8 8 63 61 64 42 32 32 28 10 13 12 Disapprove Strongly Disapprove Approve Strongly Approve 1/11/2011 5/25/2011 10/18/2011 2/14/2012 7/25/2012 *Note: Question was not asked in March 2011 or March 2012. 11
Negative ratings of Romney high and unchanged this year Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Mitt Romney. Warm Cool Mitt Romney Cool 35 36 40 36 38 30 33 Warm 25 24 25 25 Jun 11 Aug 11 Oct 11 Dec 11 Feb 12 Apr 12 Jun 12 Aug 12 12
Obama edges to percent approval rating Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Total Approve Total Disapprove Inauguration Barack Obama 2010 Election 57 55 58 53 55 57 58 58 57 55 53 42 54 51 49 49 51 52 51 52 51 49 53 49 49 40 27 34 35 32 33 3536 19 19 20 11/23/2008 3/8/2009 6/2/2009 9/17/2009 3/18/2010 7/29/2010 1/11/2011 5/25/2011 11/20/2011 6/28/2012 *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys since the 2008 election. Before inauguration, question read: Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Barack Obama as president-elect? 13
Congressional race a dead heat I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections for Congress in 2012, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE or REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE*? 2008 Election Democratic Candidate Health care reform Republican Candidate 2010 Election 53 40 51 40 42 42 49 49 42 42 40 11/6/2008 5/13/2009 9/1/2009 1/12/2010 4/20/2010 7/29/2010 10/4/2010 1/11/2011 5/25/2011 10/18/2011 2/14/2012 7/25/2012 * In the landline sample, the incumbent names were inserted preceded by party identification. Generic the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate were inserted for the opposition. For the cell phone sample and open seat districts, both candidates were given as generic
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