Trade, Investment and People-Centered Growth Dr. Yan Wang, Senior Economist The World Bank Ywang2@worldbank.org For a GDLN Course on Agricultural Trade and Support Policies for Rural Poverty Reduction, Linking Washington DC with 4 sites in China, Nov 13-16, 2006
Outline Objective: link trade, growth and poverty reduction 1. Trade Openness and Growth: theory and practice 2. Openness does not automatically lead to poverty reduction: Behind Border Issues 3. A framework of the Quality of Growth Poor governance that hinders trade and investment Underinvestment in human capital 4. People-centered growth: building a harmonious society Open and develop the service sector Improve governance and investment climate Provide equitable education and job opportunities Reform public Investment / transfer and labor market policies 2
I. Openness, Growth and Poverty Openness to trade and investment links with faster growth and poverty reduction: Theories and practices After years of openness and reforms, China has become one of the most open economies in the World WTO accession a main driver of reforms 3
The old and new trade theories Well-known trade models: Ricardo (comparative advantage based on differences in productivity levels) Heckscher-Ohlin (comparative advantage based on differences in factor endowments) Krugman-Helpman (trade driven by economies of scale and consumers love of variety; explains intra-industry trade) 4
Growth models Neoclassical growth theory (Robert Solow) Diminishing returns to accumulation of capital & labor Sustained growth requires continuous technological progress (exogenous to the model) Endogenous growth theory (Paul Romer) Technological progress within the system Models incorporate R&D and technology diffusion Schumpeterian creative destruction (Aghion) Firms are heterogeneous- entry & growth of more efficient firms raises productivity 5
The role of Entry and Exit Schumpeter s idea of Creative Destruction (1942) stresses innovation /new products & new services New endogenous growth model stress vertical innovations generated by research (Aghion and Howitt 1992) Monopoly rents provide the payoff /incentives for research Better products/ services render previous ones obsolete. New entrants with better products /services drive the old firms out--good for productivity. Implications for trade: Competition / entry and exit are good for productivity growth process encourages innovation and reallocation of resources from inefficient ones to efficient one. See also Melitz 2003. 6
Creative Destruction: Entry, Exit &competition raise productivity growth Manufacturing firms Become more productive Deeper Division of Labor Spin-off Services New Entrants With new tech Failed firms Exit Reallocation 7
500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 After decades of reforms, China s Exports and Global Market Share Have Risen Rapidly 0 1980 1990 1995 2000 2003 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Exports Share Source: Will Martin 2004 8
Exports Have Been Transformed % 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1980 1982 Source: Will Martin, 2004 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Oth. Manuf Textiles Resources Agric 9
Trade in High-Tech Products rose 10
II. However, high trading cost prevented the poor from benefiting from trade, why? Trading cost: Domestic trade barriers are still high Transportation cost and transaction cost Many services are state monopoly: railways, airlines, telecom, ---lack of competition and lack of openness Other services are under-developed such as logistics, rural finance, rural health and education, rural roads, water, Ag R&D and rural extension services 11
Regional Trade Barriers are high Figure 3 Sources of goods consumed in Chinese provinces 1987,1992 and 1997 (percent) 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1987 1992 1997 Year Local Other provinces International 12
Cost of Poor Infrastructure Inadequate road infrastructure imposes a high cost when moving goods from inland areas Infrastructure quality accounts for 40% of the variation in cost in coastal countries and 60% in landlocked countries. 63% of the total cost of container transport from Chongqing to US West coast is land access to the port (compared to 21% for maritime transport) Significant prices differences of products between Ulaanbaatar and other outlying areas. 67% of the difference attributed to extra transport cost. 13
Importance of Infrastructure for Rural Connectivity Xiangxi County in Western Hunan Province is a producer of kiwis and tangerines Due to the absence of high quality roads and the perishable nature of these products, they cannot reach large markets or ports in good condition. Inland provinces such as Inner Mongolia, Hunan and Yunnan where perishable goods constitute a large proportion of exports have inadequate cold chain facilities to maintain product freshness. Other provinces such as Gansu, Yunnan, Guizhou face shortage of containers 14
Poverty decline has slowed since mid-1990s Headcount index 60 50 2000 calorie poverty line 40 30 20 10 0 Official poverty line 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Source: Martin Ravallion and Shaohua Chen 2004 15
while inequality has risen sharply Gini coefficient 45 40 35 30 25 20 Rural Urban National 15 10 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 Source: Martin Ravallion and Shaohua Chen 2004 16
Regional income disparities, 1978-2001 0.68 0.58 0.48 0.38 0.28 0.18 Coast versus Interior Intra-Interior All Provinces Intra-coast 17 Standard Deviation of Log of Per Capita Income 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Source: World Bank, CEM, 2003
Poverty is higher in the West Poverty rates (percent of the population) 30 28.6% 20 20.7% 13.0% 10 6.3% 6.6% 0 Coastal Northeast Center Southwest Northwest Source: World Bank 2006, Poverty Assessment. 18
Distribution of poverty in China, 2003 Northwest 20.0% Coastal 16.8% Northeast 4.2% Southwest 31.0% Center 28.0% Source: World Bank 2006, Poverty Assessment. 19
Most common characteristics of poor households Low education level of adults No migrant worker in the household Source: World Bank 2006, Poverty Assessment. 20
III. A Framework for more balanced and equitable growth A country needs at least 3 types of capital for income growth and welfare: physical, human and natural capital Investing in H raises the productivity of FDI and other investment, but currently there is an under-investment in H Investing in Natural capital (R) and protecting the environment contribute to growth as well as welfare, but currently there is an overexploitation of natural capital Opening to trade and foreign investment would raise the productivity of K, and H Improving governance would raise the productivity of all three capital, K, H, and R, and promote growth and poverty reduction 21
A Framework H (Human capital) TFP Opening to trade and investment Improving investment climate Providing sound macro policy Correcting market failures hurting H and R Good governance to ensure policy consistency K (Physical capital) Growth Welfare TFP R (Natural capital) Source: Thomas, Wang et al The Quality of Growth, 2000. 22
Policy Implication 1: further opening and reform, especially in the Service sector China is lagging behind others in the service sector development [it accounts for 40% of the economy] Services as engine of growth: since deeper division of labor and specialization contribute to competitiveness and higher productivity Liberalization in service may generate sizable gains A) Standard gains from trade and specialization; B) Services as intermediate input better services for the goods sector; C) Gains from FDI as a means for trade -- learning-by-doing. 23
Service Sector as a Percentage of GDP (Year 2003) 80 Service Value Added ( % of GDP) 70 60 50 40 Jordan Mongolia India Egypt Indonesia Nepal Vietnam Mexico Russia Iran Brazil China (2004) new data Thailand Malaysia Poland Argentina Saudi Arabia Korea Greece Czech Republic France U.K. Sweden Denmark Germany Belgium Spain Italy Finland Austria Singapore Trend Line Norway Cambodia China 30 Azerbaijan Lao PDR 20 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2000 international $) Source: WDI 2005, China 2004 Service data: NBS 24
Sectoral composition of FDI stock in China: why so much concentration? 80% 70% Primary Manufacturing Services 74% 75% 73% 75% 74% 69% 73% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 29% 26% 24% 23% 25% 23% 25% 10% 0% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Source: based on China Statistical Year Book 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006.
Cost of not opening: Lack of openness in many service sectors Ex: financial/banking sector, education and health In banking, market access was not allowed to the domestic private sector, nor to foreign banks. The poor suffers from lack of access to rural / micro finance. Policy 2: Improve Governance Improve governance anti-corruption issues. Voice of the poor, and empowerment of the poor 26
Policy 2: improve investment climate and governance Improving investment climate by reducing red tapes, encouraging FDI and private sector development It would encourage investment in infrastructure, reduce trade cost and facilitate trade. It would also promote productivity growth, and create more jobs, as shown below. 27
Share of firms needing informal payment to secure bank loans Share of firms.15 NC NN.1 BX CC CQ CS GY KM LZ SZ WH XA ZZ.05 HZ JM DL WZ HB 0 Source: Dollar et al. 2003 28
Firms making informal payments to secure bank loan Southeast Bohai cluster Northeast Southwest Center Northwest 0 2 4 6 Percent 8 10 Source: Dollar et al. 2006 29
Days needed for clearing Customs for exports Southeast Bohai cluster Northeast Southwest Center Northwest 0 2.5 5 7.5 10 Source: Dollar et al. 2006 Days 30
Transport and factor costs, inland and coast regions Yuan 30,000 20,000 Costs: Transport one container Labor Land Total costs 10,000 0 Source: Dollar et al. 2006 Inland city: Guiyang Port city: Guangzhou 31
Policy 3: invest in the poor s s human capital Distribution of opportunities Key: There are large rural/urban disparities in education and health School enrollment and attainment have risen but disparities are high Schooling is 2-3 years longer in urban areas than rural Enrollment in high school was 34% in west China, 50% in East China Infant mortality was 37 per 1000 in rural China, 12 in urban China in 2000. 32
Access to schooling has remained unequal Average years of schooling, 2000 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Source: Wang 2006. 33
Government spending on education per student, 1990s (% of GNP per capita) 70 60 50 Primary Secondary Tertiary 40 30 20 10 0 China Korea Chile Mexico USA Source: Wang 2006. 34
Reasons? Low level of public spending and inadequate attention to the poor regions Government Budgetary Spending on Education Per Capita (Yuan 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Government Budgetary Spending on Education by Province (China, 2003) Yunnan Tibet Qinghai Ningxia Shannxi Gansu Shanxi Hainan Guangxi Chongqing Hubei SichuanHunan Guizhou Henan Anhui Jiangxi Xinjiang Jilin Inner Mongolia Hebei Heilongjiang Fujian Liaoning Shandong Guangdong Zhejiang Jiangsu 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 Source: China Statistical Year Book (2005 and 2004) GDP per Capita (Yuan) Note: Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin are not shown under the current scale, as outliers, they stay at the upper right side of Zhejiang and Guangdong. 35
Policy 4: Reform the fiscal transfer system which is regressive: the rich get more Fiscal transfers and provincial GDP per capita, 2000 (RMB) 300 250 Transfers per capita 200 150 100 50 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 GDP per capita (thousand) 36
Public Investment should be in areas of higher returns: Investment returns in China Coastal Central Western Average Returns to Agriculural GDP R&D Irrigation Roads Education Electricity Telephone yuan per yuan expenditure 8.6 10.02 12.69 9.59 2.39 1.75 1.56 1.88 1.67 3.84 1.92 2.12 3.53 3.66 3.28 3.71 0.55 0.63 0.4 0.54 1.58 2.64 1.99 1.91 Returns to poverty reduction R&D Irrigation Roads Education Electricity Telephone Poverty loan no. of poor reduced per 10,000 yuan expenditure 1.99 4.4 33.12 6.79 0.55 0.77 4.06 1.33 0.83 3.61 10.73 3.22 2.73 5.38 28.66 8.8 0.76 1.65 6.17 2.27 0.6 1.9 8.51 2.21 0.88 0.75 1.49 1.13 Source: Fan, Shenggen.. 2004. Investment and Subsidies in Rural India and Implications for China 37
Policy 5: migration and labor markets are critical for equitable growth Trade reform & China s growth & development require massive movements of workers Many barriers to mobility between agriculture & other sectors Poor education, lack of experience, inability to sell land use rights, formal barriers (eg hukou) all limit mobility Causes rural incomes to fall behind urban Hukou system less restrictive than previously, but still an important barrier 38
An example: Labor Mobility Component Of Southwest Poverty Reduction Project SWPR Project areas 3provinces (region) 35 counties 291 townships 1798 administrative villages Agricultural population 4.448 million, 2.235 million laborers 0.73 million surplus laborers 0.28 million laborers were relocated in coastal regions and found jobs, of which, 68% male and 32% female. Actual investment was 490 million yuan. 39
Openness and poverty reduction Directly increased income It was shown in the sample survey, of laborers sent out form 1995 to 2000: The remittance amounted to 1.338 bn yuan, the goods purchased valued to 0.25 bn yuan, totaling 1.59 bn yuan. The production and living condition of project farmers were improved by the remittance: To invest in agricultural production To build houses To pay off the debts To pay the education fees To pay for health 40
Summary: People-centered growth is achievable Openness to trade and investment has led to rapid growth, which has helped poverty reduction, but rising inequality increased the poverty. Focus on pro-poor / quality growth: a growth that provide equal opportunities to the poor, a growth that is based on productivity, not on resources; a growth that is equitable, stable and sustainable over time. Invest in human capital, and focus on rural-urban migration and equal education /job opportunities. 41
People-centered growth and building a harmonious society Public investment would be more effective if it focuses on Agricultural R&D, roads, water, and rural infrastructure, and education. Fiscal transfers should be reformed to better protect the poor, the elderly and the vulnerable Targeted Programs /conditional cash transfers such as Mexico s oportunidades may be considered. 42
References: Bhattasali, D., Li, Shantong and Will Martin. 2004. eds. China and the WTO: Accession, Policy Reform and Poverty Reduction, Oxford University Press and the World Bank. Branstetter and Lardy, Nick. 2006. China s Embrace of Globalization NBER Working paper 12373. Dollar et al. 2003. Improving Investment Climate in China The World Bank Fan, Shenggen. 2004. Investment and Subsidies in Rural India and China. Ravallion and Chen, 2004. China s Uneven Progress against Poverty. Wang, Yan. 2006. Inequality of Education in China and in the World Wang, Yan and Yudong Yao, 2003. Sources of China s Economic Growth 1952-1999. Wang, Yan. 2005. Development as a Learning Process: Lessons from China, in Moreno-Dodson ed. Reducing Poverty on a Global Scale. World Bank, 2003. Promoting Growth with Equity, Country Economic Memorandum. World Bank. 2000. The Quality of Growth. In particular, Chapter 3 on Improving the distribution of opportunities. See http://www.worldbank.org/trade/china-wto. 43
See our website, trade and poverty China: WTO and Development -- Policy Reform and strategy in the Post-WTO Era www.worldbank.org/trade/china-wto www.reducingpoverty.org 44