POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 14TH NOVEMBER 2018, 6 AM EST Canada - National UltraPoll 14th November 2018
METHODOLOGY The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between October 30th to November 7th, 2018 among a sample of 7961 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of Canada. The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was not sponsored by a third party. The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by Mainstreet Research from various commerically available sources and random digit dialing. The part of the survey that dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian provinces. In the case of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question of what region of the country they resided in. The margin of error for this poll is +/- 1.09% and is accurate 19 times out of 20. (full methodology appears at the end of this report) ABOUT MAINSTREET With 20 years of political experience in all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on international public affairs. Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, and was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election. Mainstreet also accurately predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral elections in November 2017, and the Alabama special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is a member of the World Association for Public Opinion Research and meets international and Canadian publication standards. CONTACT INFORMATION In Ottawa: Quito Maggi, President quito@mainstreetresearch.ca In Toronto: Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca Find us online at: www.mainstreetresearch.ca twitter.com/mainstresearch facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
TRUDEAU LIBERALS WOULD WIN BIG MAJORITY IF ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY 26 July 2018 (Ottawa, ON) The governing Liberals are on track to win a substantially large majority if an election were held today. Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration of ten provincial polls. The poll surveyed 7961 Canadians between October 30th and November 7th. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.09% and is accurate 19 times out of 20. If things stay the way are now, Justin Trudeau could secure a majority without winning a seat west of Ontario, said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. The Liberals are also narrowly ahead in British Columbia as well, but they are over 40% in Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces. Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau have 39.3% support (-0.1% since our last poll in July), while the Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer have 34.6% (-2.3%). The NDP led by Jagmeet Singh have 10.8% support (-1%), while the Greens with Elizabeth May at the helm have 6.8% (-0.2%). The Bloc Quebecois have 3.4% (+1%) overall, but 14.4% in Quebec. The People s Party led by Maxime Bernier has 3.8%. The Conservative vote is inefficient as Scheer will end up piling big wins in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, continued Maggi. Beyond this, the Liberals have over a twelve point among women and voters under 35, as well as a six point lead among voters older than 65. It will be tough for Andrew Scheer to win when Justin Trudeau has a big lead among the largest age cohort, and the age bracket most likely to vote. The poll also asked whether Canadians were optimistic or pessimistic about their personal finances and the Canadian economy in general. The survey found that 59% of respondents were optimistic about the Canadian economy, with 20.3% being very optimistic. There were similar findings regarding Canadians sentiment about personal finances. 62.6% were optimistic about their personal finances for the rest of the year, with nearly 25% being very optimistic. These numbers point to why Trudeau is doing well, concluded Maggi. If Canadians generally feel good about the economy and their personal finances, then they likely will not be willing to change the government. -30- For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact: Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
If the federal election were held today, which party would you vote for? 11% 3.5% 1.2% 5.7% 34.9% 3% All Voters 9.1% 31.6% 6.8% 3.8% 1.5% 3.4% 10.8% 39.3% Decided and Leaning Voters 34.6% Liberals Conservatives New Democratic Party Bloc Quebecois Greens People's Party Another Party
If the federal election were held today, which party would you vote for? (regional breakouts) 39.3% 34.6% 10.8% All 3.4% 6.8% 3.8% 1.5% 34.5% British Columbia 33.1% 14.7% 12.5% 4.0% 1.3% 20.0% 61.9% Alberta 7.8% 4.9% 4.3% 1.1% 29.4% 47.5% Prairies 12.5% 5.9% 3.9% 0.8% 45.5% 34.8% Ontario 9.7% 5.3% 3.3% 1.4% 41.4% 19.6% Quebec 12.1% 14.4% 6.2% 4.1% 2.2% 47.9% Atlantic Canada 29.7% 8.1% 9.4% 3.9% 1.1% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Liberals Conservatives NDP Bloc Quebecois Greens People's Party Another Party
Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the economy for the rest of the year? breakout by party support and region Total 20.3% 38.7% 22.7% 11.4% BC 18.3% 37.7% 24.6% 12.6% AB 17.3% 48.1% 15.0% 15.1% Party Support Regions Prairies 14.1% 32.0% 24.7% 20.6% 8.6% ON QC 23.7% 19.0% 35.4% 42.5% 24.3% 22.9% 9.6% 8.9% Atlantic 20.1% 36.8% 20.9% 12.8% 9.4% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Total 20.3% 38.7% 22.7% 11.4% Liberals 37.3% 43.8% 10.9% Conservatives 8.0% 36.6% 31.6% 18.7% NDP 13.8% 41.6% 29.4% Bloc 11.2% 42.1% 23.0% 17.0% Green 12.7% 31.7% 30.8% 16.7% 8.1% People's Party 23.3% 23.3% 31.0% 15.7% Another Party 17.4% 28.6% 19.2% 17.5% 17.4% 11.7% 27.1% 30.7% 8.2% 22.3% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic Somewhat Pessimistic Very Pessimistic Not Sure
Are you optimistic or pessimistic about your personal finances for the rest of the year? breakout by party support and region Total 24.6% 38.0% 19.8% 11.4% BC 23.9% 41.1% 19.4% 10.1% AB 20.3% 32.1% 24.0% 17.7% Party Support Regions Prairies 22.2% 34.4% 23.0% 13.6% ON QC Atlantic 27.7% 22.5% 25.2% 37.7% 40.9% 37.3% 17.4% 21.6% 18.7% 11.0% 9.1% 11.2% 7.6% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Total 24.6% 38.0% 19.8% 11.4% Liberals 34.8% 40.4% 14.0% Conservatives 17.8% 36.0% 26.1% 14.4% NDP 19.9% 41.0% 22.2% 12.3% Bloc 18.1% 43.1% 22.5% 14.4% Green 19.7% 36.7% 18.2% 20.0% People's Party 16.9% 36.7% 19.2% 22.8% Another Party 22.7% 22.3% 19.2% 14.2% 21.5% 18.5% 29.0% 17.7% 15.6% 19.2% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic Somewhat Pessimistic Very Pessimistic Not Sure
Breakout Tables If the federal election were held today, which party would you vote for? (all voters) Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic Liberals led by Justin Trudeau 34.9% 33.4% 36.4% 32% 32.6% 36.1% 40.1% 31.1% 18.5% 24.6% 40.9% 36.5% 40.6% Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer 31.6% 37% 26.2% 23.4% 32.6% 35.8% 35.9% 30% 57.7% 41.7% 32.4% 17.5% 25.5% NDP led by Jagmeet Singh 9.1% 7.6% 10.6% 14.8% 9.3% 5.6% 5.8% 12.7% 7.1% 10% 7.9% 10.5% 6.7% Bloc led by Mario Beaulieu 3% 3.2% 2.9% 3.9% 3% 2.8% 2.2% - - - - 13.1% - Green Party led by Elizabeth May 5.7% 5.2% 6.2% 7.8% 5.6% 5% 4% 11.4% 3.2% 4.6% 4.8% 5.1% 7.3% People's Party led by Maxime Bernier 3.5% 4.4% 2.5% 3.8% 5.1% 2.9% 1.7% 3.7% 4% 3.4% 3% 3.8% 3.3% Another Party 1.2% 1.5% 0.8% 0.8% 2.1% 1.3% 0.3% 1.1% 1% 0.7% 0.9% 1.9% 0.9% 11% 7.6% 14.4% 13.6% 9.8% 10.4% 9.9% 10.1% 8.6% 15% 10.1% 11.7% 15.7% Unweighted Frequency 7961 4398 3563 1389 1875 2408 2289 963 896 1514 1229 896 2463 Weighted Frequency 7961 3942 4019 2214 1994 2193 1561 1085 900 519 3052 1859 546 (leaning voters with true undecided totals) All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic Liberals led by Justin Trudeau 37.6% 35.2% 39.9% 36.6% 34.4% 37.8% 42.8% 33.2% 19.5% 27.5% 43.8% 39.6% 43.8% Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer 33.2% 38.3% 28.3% 25.2% 34.1% 38% 36.8% 31.9% 60.6% 44.7% 33.6% 18.8% 27.3% NDP led by Jagmeet Singh 10.3% 8.5% 12.2% 16.6% 10.5% 6.8% 6.2% 14.1% 7.6% 11.7% 9.3% 11.6% 7.4% Bloc led by Mario Beaulieu 3.2% 3.3% 3.1% 4% 3.2% 3% 2.4% - - - - 13.8% - Green Party led by Elizabeth May 6.5% 5.7% 7.3% 8.6% 6.4% 5.5% 5% 12% 4.8% 5.5% 5.1% 5.9% 8.6% People's Party led by Maxime Bernier 3.6% 4.6% 2.6% 4.1% 5.1% 2.9% 2% 3.8% 4.2% 3.7% 3.2% 4% 3.6% Another Party 1.4% 1.6% 1.3% 1.2% 2.3% 1.5% 0.4% 1.2% 1.1% 0.8% 1.3% 2.1% 1% 4.1% 2.9% 5.3% 3.7% 4% 4.4% 4.4% 3.8% 2.3% 6.1% 3.7% 4.2% 8.3% Unweighted Frequency 7961 4398 3563 1389 1875 2408 2289 963 896 1514 1229 896 2463 Weighted Frequency 7961 3942 4019 2214 1994 2193 1561 1085 900 519 3052 1859 546 (decided and leaning voters) All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic Liberals led by Justin Trudeau 39.3% 36.3% 42.2% 38% 35.9% 39.7% 44.8% 34.5% 20% 29.4% 45.5% 41.4% 47.9% Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer 34.6% 39.3% 29.9% 26% 35.5% 39.6% 38.4% 33.1% 61.9% 47.5% 34.8% 19.6% 29.7% NDP led by Jagmeet Singh 10.8% 8.7% 12.8% 17.3% 10.9% 7.2% 6.5% 14.7% 7.8% 12.5% 9.7% 12.1% 8.1% Bloc led by Mario Beaulieu 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 4.2% 3.3% 3.2% 2.5% - - - - 14.4% - Green Party led by Elizabeth May 6.8% 5.8% 7.7% 8.9% 6.7% 5.7% 5.3% 12.5% 4.9% 5.9% 5.3% 6.2% 9.4% People's Party led by Maxime Bernier 3.8% 4.8% 2.7% 4.2% 5.3% 3% 2.1% 4% 4.3% 3.9% 3.3% 4.1% 3.9% Another Party 1.5% 1.6% 1.3% 1.3% 2.4% 1.5% 0.5% 1.3% 1.1% 0.8% 1.4% 2.2% 1.1% Unweighted Frequency 7531 4215 3316 1322 1789 2270 2150 928 876 1424 1186 859 2258 Weighted Frequency 7531 3729 3802 2094 1886 2074 1447 1026 852 491 2887 1759 517
Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the economy for the rest of the year? All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic Very Optimistic 20.3% 20.6% 19.9% 20.1% 18.8% 21.4% 20.8% 18.3% 17.3% 14.1% 23.7% 19% 20.1% Somewhat Optimistic 38.7% 38.7% 38.7% 35.4% 40% 38.2% 42.4% 37.7% 48.1% 32% 35.4% 42.5% 36.8% Somewhat Pessimistic 22.7% 21.3% 24.2% 23% 22.6% 24% 20.9% 24.6% 15% 24.7% 24.3% 22.9% 20.9% Very Pessimistic 11.4% 13.6% 9.3% 12.9% 12.4% 11.5% 8% 12.6% 15.1% 20.6% 9.6% 8.9% 12.8% Not Sure 6.9% 5.8% 8% 8.8% 6.1% 4.9% 8% 6.7% 4.4% 8.6% 7% 6.7% 9.4% Unweighted Frequency 7961 4398 3563 1389 1875 2408 2289 963 896 1514 1229 896 2463 Weighted Frequency 7961 3942 4019 2214 1994 2193 1561 1085 900 519 3052 1859 546 Very Optimistic 20.3% 37.3% 8% 13.8% 11.2% 12.7% 6.7% 17.4% 11.7% Somewhat Optimistic 38.7% 43.8% 36.6% 41.6% 42.1% 31.7% 23.3% 28.6% 27.1% Somewhat Pessimistic 22.7% 10.9% 31.6% 29.4% 23% 30.8% 23.3% 19.2% 30.7% Very Pessimistic 11.4% 2.9% 18.7% 7.6% 17% 16.7% 31% 17.5% 8.2% Not Sure 6.9% 5.1% 5.1% 7.6% 6.8% 8.1% 15.7% 17.4% 22.3% Unweighted Frequency All LPC, Trudeau CPC, Scheer NDP, Singh Bloc, Beaulieu 7961 2879 2937 684 119 536 282 94 430 Weighted Frequency 7961 2992 2646 824 256 515 288 112 327 Green, May People's Party, Bernier Another Party Are you optimistic or pessimistic about your personal finances for the rest of the year? All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic Very Optimistic 24.6% 24.5% 24.7% 23.4% 24.2% 24.2% 27.4% 23.9% 20.3% 22.2% 27.7% 22.5% 25.2% Somewhat Optimistic 38% 39% 37% 36.9% 37.6% 38.9% 38.8% 41.1% 32.1% 34.4% 37.7% 40.9% 37.3% Somewhat Pessimistic 19.8% 20.5% 19.2% 20.2% 20.1% 20.1% 18.7% 19.4% 24% 23% 17.4% 21.6% 18.7% Very Pessimistic 11.4% 10.6% 12.2% 12.9% 13.3% 11% 7.3% 10.1% 17.7% 13.6% 11% 9.1% 11.2% Not Sure 6.2% 5.4% 6.9% 6.7% 4.8% 5.7% 7.7% 5.5% 5.9% 6.8% 6.3% 5.9% 7.6% Unweighted Frequency 7961 4398 3563 1389 1875 2408 2289 963 896 1514 1229 896 2463 Weighted Frequency 7961 3942 4019 2214 1994 2193 1561 1085 900 519 3052 1859 546 Very Optimistic 24.6% 34.8% 17.8% 19.9% 18.1% 19.7% 16.9% 22.7% 18.5% Somewhat Optimistic 38% 40.4% 36% 41% 43.1% 36.7% 36.7% 22.3% 29% Somewhat Pessimistic 19.8% 14% 26.1% 22.2% 22.5% 18.2% 19.2% 19.2% 17.7% Very Pessimistic 11.4% 5.1% 14.4% 12.3% 14.4% 20% 22.8% 14.2% 15.6% Not Sure 6.2% 5.6% 5.7% 4.7% 2% 5.4% 4.4% 21.5% 19.2% Unweighted Frequency All LPC, Trudeau CPC, Scheer NDP, Singh Bloc, Beaulieu 7961 2879 2937 684 119 536 282 94 430 Weighted Frequency 7961 2992 2646 824 256 515 288 112 327 Green, May People's Party, Bernier Another Party
Full Questionnaire If the federal election were held today, which party would you vote for? Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau Conservative Party of Canada led by Andrew Scheer New Democratic Party of Canada led by Jagmeet Singh Green Party of Canada led by Elizabeth May People s Party of Canada led by Maxime Bernier Bloc Quebecois led by Mario Beaulieu (only given as an option in Quebec) Another Party And which party are you leaning towards? (only asked of respondents who were undecided in Q1) Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau Conservative Party of Canada led by Andrew Scheer New Democratic Party of Canada led by Jagmeet Singh Green Party of Canada led by Elizabeth May People s Party of Canada led by Maxime Bernier Bloc Quebecois led by Mario Beaulieu (only given as an option in Quebec) Another Party about the economy in the coming year? Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic Somewhat Pessimistic Very Pessimistic Not Sure Are you optimistic or pessimistic about your personal finances in the coming year? Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic Somewhat Pessimistic Very Pessimistic Not Sure What is your gender? Male Female What is your age group? 18 to 34 years of age 35 to 49 years of age 50 to 64 years of age 65 years of age or older [Provincial related questions were asked here - refer to the individual provincial reports for thsoe questions] Are you optimistic or pessimistic
Methodology The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between October 30th, 2018 and November 7th 2018, among a sample of 7961 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviews on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of Canada. This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any third-party organization. The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by Mainstreet Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing. The survey that dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian provinces. In the case of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question of what region of the country they resided in. Respondents were dialed at random. At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as possible across the field period. The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www. mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis preceding the question. The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults 18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age, gender, and region. The margin of error for this poll is +/- 1.09% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 1.47%, Females: +/- 1.64%, 18-34 age group: +/- 2.63%, 35-49 age group: +/- 2.26%, 50-64 age group: +/- 1.99%, 65+ age group: +/- 2.04%, British Columbia: +/- 3.15%, Alberta: +/- 3.27%, Prairies: +/- 2.51%, Ontario: +/- 2.79%, Quebec: +/- 3.27%, Atlantic Canada: +/- 1.97%. Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.