Rising American Electorate & Working Class Strike Back November 9, 2018
Methodology National phone poll with oversample in 15-state presidential & 2018 battleground. An election phone poll of 1,250 registered voters and an oversample of 400 voters in a 15-state battleground was conducted November 4-7, 2018 from a voter-file sample. Two-thirds of respondents were contacted on cell phones in order to accurately reflect the American electorate. Votes and vote share for key demographics were weighted to the AP VoteCast. The margin of error for national data +/- 2.77 and for the battleground is +/- 3.27 at a 95 percent confidence interval. Total 15-state Presidential battleground: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Wisconsin 8 Diverse States = < 70% white = AZ (+5), CO (+1), FL (+2), GA (+5), NV (+1), NM (+3), NC (+3), VA (+1) 7 Rust Belt+ States = > 70% white = IA (+3), MI (+1), MN (+1), OH (+3), PA (-), TN (+14), WI (-) 13 Governor Races in 2018: Democratic Incumbent: CO*, MN*, PA Republican Incumbent: AZ, FL*, GA*, IA, MI*, NV*, NM*, OH*, TN*, WI 11 Senate Races in 2018: Democratic incumbent: FL, MI, MN, NM, OH, PA, VA, WI Republican incumbent: AZ*, NV, TN* (Republican PVI advantage)(pvi even)(democratic PVI advantage)*retiring/term-limited 1
Democrats had a very big election on Tuesday The Democrats won a 5-point national congressional margin and it will likely end up just short of President Obama s margin in 2008. They shifted the congressional margin 10 points on average, and 21 points in the seats that flipped to the Democrats. Democrats flipped at least 32 seats 15 Trump districts and 16 Clinton districts and no Democratic incumbents lost their races. At least 50 new Democrats are coming to the House, 32 of which are women, so a record-breaking 100 women will be women in 2019. Democrats also pushed turnout to a stunning 48.1 percent, compared to just 36.7 in 2014. Democrats flipped 6 statehouses and seven governors mansions including winning in all of the Blue Wall states that allowed Donald Trump to win the Electoral College matching the governorship gains of the Tea Party wave. Democrats now control 23 of the 50 governorships. This was thanks to a slate of special and diverse candidates, a surge in activism and fundraising catalyzed by the s March and Donald Trump s election, and the incredible efforts to register and turnout voters by s Voices. Vote Action Fund and the Voter Participation Center. 2
THE RAE & THE BATTLEGROUND 3
Democrats ran ahead of Trump in these presidential battleground states Thinking about the election for U.S. Congress in your district, did you vote for -- (ROTATE DEM, REP CANDIDATE) the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? Democrat for Congress 2018 V. 2016 VOTE PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND Republican for Congress -- +7 +10 +3 47 51 52 47 48 44 42 45 2016 Vote for President House Ballot Senate Ballot Governor Ballot 4
Democrats win Rust Belt state Governor races Thinking about the election for U.S. Senate in [STATE], did you vote for -- (ROTATE DEM, REP CANDIDATE) -- [NAMED DEMOCRATIC SENATE CANDIDATE] or [NAMED DEMOCRATIC SENATE CANDIDATE]? 2018 GOVERNOR VOTE PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND Democrat for Governor Republican for Governor +3 +2 +8 48 45 46 48 51 43 Total Battleground Diverse States Rust Belt+ States 5
Democrats won big in MI, MN, OH & WI, struggled in FL & AZ Thinking about the election for U.S. Senate in [STATE], did you vote for -- (ROTATE DEM, REP CANDIDATE) -- [NAMED DEMOCRATIC SENATE CANDIDATE] or [NAMED DEMOCRATIC SENATE CANDIDATE]? 2018 SENATE VOTE PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND Democrat for Senate Republican for Senate +10 +2 +16 52 42 48 46 56 40 Total Battleground Diverse States Rust Belt+ States 6
THE RISING AMERICAN ELECTORATE 7 7
The Rising American Electorate showed up to this midterm! % OF VOTERS NATIONAL 79 76 79 74 73 22 24 25 21 23 14 14 12 9 11 13 11 12 12 8 6 7 6 9 9 10 12 14 16 18 10 12 14 16 18 10 12 14 16 18 10 12 14 16 18 10 12 14 16 18 Unmarried 18 to 29 African American Hispanic 10-16 data from Catalist voter study. 2018 data from AP Votecast. 8
Democrats outperformed 2016 vote among all cohorts of women Now let me ask you about the election for Congress. Did you vote for (ROTATE) the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? 2016 V. 2018 CONGRESSIONAL VOTE Clinton 2016/Democrat 2018 Trump 2016/Republican 2018 +3 +13 +9 +11 +29 +32 +43 +2 +15 +16 +7 +16 +31 +27 +16 +13 62 63 33 31 68 25 48 46 55 55 40 39 51 44 56 40 65 34 34 61 55 39 39 52 16 Nation 18 Nation 18 Battle 16 Nation 18 Nation 18 Battle 16 Nation 18 Nation 18 Battle 16 Nation 18 Nation 18 Battle Unmarried Unmarried College Working Class Compared to the 2016 presidential vote in national exit polls. working class = non college educated. 9
working class men also moved Now let me ask you about the election for Congress. Did you vote for (ROTATE) the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? 2016 V. 2018 CONGRESSIONAL VOTE Clinton 2016/Democrat 2018 Trump 2016/Republican 2018 +2 +6 +4 +20 +13 +15 +23 +11 +5 +11 +14 +10 +9 +48 +28 +34 54 55 41 40 59 36 41 52 50 45 42 53 53 53 52 43 43 39 23 71 33 61 63 29 16 Nation 18 Nation 18 Battle 16 Nation 18 Nation 18 Battle 16 Nation 18 Nation 18 Battle 16 Nation 18 Nation 18 Battle Men College Men Working Class Men Compared to the 2016 presidential vote in national exit polls. working class =non college educated. 10
Where people lived determined their vote Thinking about the election for U.S. Congress in your district, did you vote for -- (ROTATE DEM, REP CANDIDATE) the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? 2018 CONGRESSIONAL VOTE Democrat for Congress Republican for Congress +5 +35 +9 +9 +28 +24 50 45 65 30 52 51 43 42 63 35 35 59 National Large metro (26%) Small Metro (29%) Suburban (15%) Fringe (12%) Rural (17%) 11
Where people lived determined their vote Thinking about the election for U.S. Congress in your district, did you vote for -- (ROTATE DEM, REP CANDIDATE) the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? Democrat for Senate 2018 SENATE VOTE Republican for Senate +18 +47 +15 +20 +18 +22 71 56 54 57 56 58 38 39 37 38 36 24 National Large metro (26%) Small Metro (29%) Suburban (15%) Fringe (12%) Rural (17%) 12
How the House vote breaks down Now let me ask you about the election for Congress. Did you vote for (ROTATE) the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? 2018 CONGRESSIONAL VOTE NATIONAL Democratic candidate Republican candidate +78 +38 +32 +30 +23 +22 +10 +9 +9 +3 +4 +16 +28 86 8 66 28 63 62 60 58 31 32 37 36 52 51 51 42 42 42 44 41 46 50 39 55 33 61 African Americans Millennial Unmarried Hispanic College Millennial Unmarr. Suburban Millennial Independ. Seniors Non- Non- Coll Coll Men 13
The congressional vote by demos Now let me ask you about the election for Congress. Did you vote for (ROTATE) the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? 2018 CONGRESSIONAL VOTE 2018 STATE BATTLEGROUND Democratic candidate Republican candidate +79 +44 +36 +29 +16 +12 +5 +3 +3 +5 +8 +19 +31 85 6 70 64 64 26 28 35 57 52 41 40 49 44 43 46 38 41 46 51 50 42 36 55 30 61 African Americans Millennial Unmarried College Hispanic Millennial Unmarr. Millennial Independ. Seniors Suburban Non- Non- Coll Coll Men 14
Won independents and seniors in Senate races Now let me ask you about the election for Senate. Did you vote for (ROTATE) [NAMED DEMOCRAT] or [NAMED REPUBLICAN]? 2018 SENATE VOTE 2018 STATE BATTLEGROUND Democratic candidate Republican candidate +87 +45 +38 +30 +21 +18 +18 +12 +5 +5 +4 +12 +24 93 6 70 25 67 29 62 32 57 56 55 50 49 51 44 46 36 38 37 38 45 49 41 53 34 58 African Americans Unmarried Millennial College Hispanic Millennial Unmarr. Independ. Suburban Seniors Millennial Non- Non- Coll Coll Men 15
Less consolidated for Governor, including suburban voters & independents Now let me ask you about the election for Governor. Did you vote for (ROTATE) [NAMED DEMOCRAT] or [NAMED REPUBLICAN] 2018 GOVERNOR VOTE 2018 STATE BATTLEGROUND Democratic candidate Republican candidate +80 +37 +35 +27 +19 +18 +7 -- +5 +5 +10 +23 +33 85 65 64 28 29 60 33 55 56 36 38 52 50 51 45 45 45 45 46 48 38 37 60 30 63 5 African Americans Millennial Unmarried College Millennial Hispanic Unmarr. Millennial Suburban Seniors Independ. Non- Non- Coll Coll Men 16
WHAT MOTIVATED THEM TO VOTE 17
High interest in the midterms Compared to previous midterm elections, do you think it is more important for you to vote, less important for you to vote, or about the same? RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF THIS MIDTERM 2018 VOTERS IN PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND Less important As important Somewhat more important Much more important 70 80 72 70 70 70 71 68 61 56 62 69 66 65 64 63 61 57 50 43 30 20 28 29 29 30 29 32 38 43 30 30 44 Total College African American Working Class Hispanic Unmarried Unmarried Working Class Millennial Millennial 18
Critical for unmarried & college women to vote in midterms to check Trump Which one of the following statements comes closer to your point of view, even if neither is exactly right? I need to vote in the midterm election in November to elect leaders who will be a check on President Trump I need to vote in the midterm election in November to elect leaders who will defend President Trump. 2018 VOTERS IN PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND Defend somewhat more Defend much more Check somewhat more Check much more 54 68 75 62 59 55 60 56 50 43 42 33 41 57 56 50 49 46 44 40 40 27 18 8 26 27 24 25 31 39 14 46 22 32 35 32 33 40 45 57 Total Unmarried African American Unmarried College Graduate Hispanic Millennial Millennial Working Class Working Class Men 19
People didn t vote in battleground because... Now, let me read you a list of reasons why people some people do not vote. Please tell me all the reasons why you ('WILL' IF NOV 6 OR EARLIER, 'DID' AFTER NOV 6) not vote in this election. REASONS FOR NOT VOTING NON-2018 VOTERS IN BATTLEGROUND Total RAE+ Conflicts w/ work or school schedule Too busy Not involved in politics Dealing w/ my illness or disability Felt my vote would not make a difference Not interested in the election Dealing w/ illness or disability in family Did not like the campaign issues Did not have the proper identification 1 0 4 4 5 9 13 14 21 24 24 24 28 31 20
THE TRUMP FACTOR 21
The intense disapproval of Donald Trump Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President? TRUMP APPROVAL 2018 PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND Somewhat Disapprove Strongly Disapprove Somewhat Approve Strongly Approve 45 33 45 50 7 74 82 58 64 29 30 35 39 46 41 21 20 21 24 31 45 50 27 61 61 66 65 48 52 50 42 36 25 39 57 55 52 51 30 Total African American College Graduate Unmarried Millennial Hispanic Unmarried Millennial Working Class Working Class Men 22
Trump self-dealing and looking out for himself, with intensity For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes Donald Trump very well, well, not too well, or not well at all. Self-dealing & looking out for himself AGREEMENT ON TRUMP ATTRIBUTES PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND Very Well Well Not Well at All Not Too Well 37 30 20 24 56 48 69 61 RAE Total Not keeping his promises 44 52 28 35 35 31 52 45 RAE Total Encourage the growing violence 47 38 26 33 45 38 60 50 RAE Total Is keeping America safe 57 47 39 34 25 33 42 52 RAE Total Can t be bought 52 46 40 35 31 37 42 49 RAE Total Honest & trustworthy 69 59 55 46 14 20 30 40 RAE Total 23
Trump s tone attributed to rise in violence Which one of the following statements comes closer to your point of view, even if neither is exactly right? The President's tone and divisiveness contributed to the rise in violence at the end of the campaign. PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND Both political parties have pushed the bounds of what has been acceptable political discourse in the past. Both Parties Blame somewhat more Both Parties Blame much more Trump Divisive somewhat more Trump Divisive much more 45 70 58 53 51 50 52 44 42 30 31 32 47 Total 45 41 39 37 37 36 32 29 19 13 23 24 28 31 27 33 35 39 24 African American 34 31 Unmarried Hispanic 43 44 40 College Graduate Unmarried Millennial 50 51 Millennial Working Class 60 Working Class Men 24
Support for immigrants across the electorate Which one of the following statements comes closer to your point of view, even if neither is exactly right? Immigrants today strengthen our country because of their hard work and talents. Immigrants today are a burden on our country because they take our jobs, housing & healthcare. NATIONAL Burden somewhat more Burden much more Strengthen somewhat more Strengthen much more 54 68 67 64 61 57 61 51 46 41 22 36 34 53 43 42 40 39 38 36 29 25 19 17 20 17 23 17 23 31 26 26 25 29 28 36 30 40 40 46 Total Hispanic African American Millennial College Graduate Unmarried Millennial Unmarried Working Class Working Class 25
Broad support for immigration, only modulated in rural Which one of the following statements comes closer to your point of view, even if neither is exactly right? Immigrants today strengthen our country because of their hard work and talents. Immigrants today are a burden on our country because they take our jobs, housing & healthcare. NATIONAL Burden somewhat more Burden much more Strengthen somewhat more Strenghten much more 54 65 59 55 58 55 52 52 41 42 36 48 43 39 36 35 33 31 26 26 22 17 17 20 19 20 25 25 33 28 34 25 27 32 31 34 37 39 45 45 Large Small Total West Northeast Suburban South Central Fringe Metro Metro Rural 26
WHAT DROVE IT HOME 27 27
28 Most voters decided before Kavanaugh hearings When did you finally decide how you would vote: in the last few days before the election, the week before the election, a month before the election, during the Kavanaugh hearings, sometime in September, during the summer or before that? 48 39 DECISION TIME BY PARTISANSHIP 2018 STATE BATTLEGROUND Democrats Independents Republicans 18 12 8 9 5 5 17 7 4 8 18 14 15 13 14 7 14 4 4 1 4 0 Before the summer During the summer During In Kavanaugh September hearings Month Before Week before Last few days Election Day Before Summer Fall Last Week
Democrats won large majority of pre-labor Day deciders, especially in House Thinking about the election for U.S. Senate/Governor in [STATE] / Congress, did you vote for -- (ROTATE DEM, REP CANDIDATE) -- [DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE] or [DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE]? +20 +13 +13 59 55 54 39 42 41 2018 BALLOTS PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND STATES Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate +8 +8 +9 -- +2 +3 51 51 51 43 43 42 43 43 41 44 39 47 Congress Senate Governor Congress Senate Governor Congress Senate Governor Before Summer Fall Last Week 29
Voters more considered in their House vote (SKIP IF DEMOCRAT FOR CONGRESS) Thinking back in time for a minute, did you, at any point in this campaign, think about voting for the Democratic candidate/? (IF YES) How seriously did you think about voting for the Democrat -- very seriously, somewhat seriously, only a little seriously, or did you not consider the Democrat at all? POTENTIAL PERSUADABLES PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND (SKIP IF REPUBLICAN FOR CONGRESS) Thinking back in time for a minute, did you, at any point in this campaign, think about voting for the Republican candidate? (IF YES) How seriously did you think about voting for the Republican -- very seriously, somewhat seriously, only a little seriously, or did you not consider the Republican at all? Only a little considered Somewhat seriously Very seriously considered 14 14 33 7 8 3 3 Considered Democrat Never Democrat Considered Republican 42 Never Republican 38 48 8 7 8 8 3 2 3 2 3 2 Considered Democrat Never Democrat Considered Republican Never Republican Considered Democrat 42 Never Democrat Considered Republican Congress Senate Governor 44 Never Republican 30
Why voted against Republicans for Congress Which THREE describe the most important reasons why you opposed the Republican candidate for Congress in your district? WHY NOT GOP FOR CONGRESS Considered Dem They don't stand up to Donald Trump's divisive behavior and lies They will be a rubber-stamp for Donald Trump and his agenda They are trying to cut Medicare and Social Security The Republican tax cut helped corporations and the rich, not us They don't do enough to show they respect and support women They refuse to acknowledge climate change and work for polluters They won't protect pre-existing conditions They are out of touch on the economy 8 5 13 17 41 30 35 21 29 26 28 28 26 32 26 30 Which THREE describe the most important reasons why you voted for the Democratic candidate for Congress in your district? 2018 STATE BATTLEGROUND WHY DEM FOR CONGRESS To make the economy work for everyone, not just the rich & corporations To protect a woman's right to choose and LGBTQ rights They will be a check on Donald Trump To stop separating immigrant parents and children and to protect DREAMers They will protect Medicare and Social Security from cuts To save protections for pre-existing conditions in health care law They support new laws to protect against gun violence They will protect the Russia investigation and the rule of law 8 17 18 15 Voted Dem 21 20 22 25 33 32 37 32 37 31 34 34 31
Why voted against Democrats for Congress Which THREE describe the most important reasons why you opposed the Democratic candidate for Congress in your district? WHY NOT DEM FOR CONGRESS Considered GOP They support open borders They support Pelosi and Waters They want to get rid of the Second Amendment They will kill economic growth They will reaise taxes They put other countries before the US They want to protect Obamacare They will impeach Trump 8 15 15 19 22 19 25 17 20 16 PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND 30 30 28 28 23 48 Which THREE describe the most important reasons why you voted for the Republican candidate for Congress in your district? WHY GOP FOR CONGRESS Because the economy is growing and creating good paying jobs To support President Trump and his agenda They support building a wall and being tough on illegal immigration They will protect the Second Amendment They are pro-life and will protect religious freedom To support the new tax cut law They will cut spending to address the deficit To protect President Trump from impeachment 4 12 11 9 0 22 20 20 Voted GOP 32 32 31 31 48 44 39 38 32
Reason for Senate vote Which THREE describe the most important reasons why you voted for [NAMED DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN SENATE CANDIDATE] in your district? WHY DEMOCRAT FOR SENATE Voted Dem Considered Dem PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND WHY GOP FOR SENATE Voted GOP Considered GOP Will be a check on Donald Trump Supports protections for pre-existing conditions and affordable health care Will stand up for human rights and a foreign policy that reflects American Is an independent thinker that can cross party lines Will protect Medicare and Social Security from any cuts Supports laws to protect against gun violence Opposes the Republicans' corrupt tax cut for the rich and corporations Is a Democrat Because of the fight over Brett Kavanaugh's Supreme Court 12 16 15 8 15 12 8 39 36 28 32 36 31 31 29 28 49 Will protect our Second Amendment right to bear arms Will support President Trump Will be tough on illegal immigration and MS-13 Because the economy is growing and creating jobs Because of the fight over Brett Kavanaugh's SCOTUS nomination Will stop Democrats from raising taxes Will stand against the liberal media and fake news So they can reverse Roe v. Wade and make abortion illegal Is a Republican 38 35 38 12 38 23 35 24 2 22 26 18 28 13 7 10 13 51 33
THE TRUMP-GOP 34 34
Composition of the GOP base Trump Loyalists: 42-58% Less Enthusiastic GOP: 42-58% Evangelical Conservatives 26% Tea Party 16% Catholic Conservatives 16% Secular Conservatives 19% Moderates 23% 69% strong Trump 59% highest interest 6% not Trump 2020 66% strong Trump 57% highest interest 10% not Trump 2020 60% strong Trump 55% highest interest 11% not Trump 2020 59% strong Trump 46% highest interest 11% not Trump 2020 31% strong Trump 39% highest interest 25% not Trump 2020 34% NAFTA very neg 41% Raise taxes/rich very negative 39% Immigrants very negative 43% NAFTA very neg 53% Raise taxes/rich very negative 34% Immigrants very negative 42% NAFTA very neg 43% Raise taxes/rich very negative 37% Immigrants very negative 32% NAFTA very neg 33% Raise taxes/rich very negative 43% Immigrants very negative 25% NAFTA very neg 23%Raise taxes/rich very negative 30% Immigrants very negative 44% South 39% South 28% South 35% South 36% South 35
Trump s campaign rallies & the Fox News feedback loop Do you approve or disapprove of the way these current leaders are handling their job? TRUMP CAMPAIGN RALLIES GOP NATIONALLY FOX NEWS Very warm Warm Very cool Cool +78 +77 +79 +55 +3 +78 +77 +79 +55 +3 84 85 87 67 66 69 63 43 47 31 71 70 71 52 47 45 44 30 31 17 6 24 12 10 8 8 14 20 12 31 15 16 19 27 40 40 Evangelical Tea Party Catholic Secular Moderates Evangelical Tea Party Catholic Secular Moderates 36
Moderates did not rally to Trump for election Do you approve or disapprove of the way these current leaders are handling their job? TRUMP JOB PERFORMANCE GOP NATIONALLY Strongly approve Somewhat approve Strongly Disapprove Somewhat disapprove 96 88 93 79 65 78 73 71 64 50 49 51 9 39 7 14 5 2 38 Evangelical Conservative Tea Party Catholic Conservative Secular Conservative Moderate GOP 46 Democrats 37
The Trump-GOP defections Thinking about the election for U.S. Congress in your district, did you vote for -- (ROTATE DEM, REP CANDIDATE) the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? CONGRESSIONAL VOTE Democrat for Congress GOP NATIONALLY Republican for Congress +92 +86 +88 +86 +61 +56 96 93 92 92 71 76 4 7 4 6 10 20 Evangelical Conservative Tea Party Catholic Conservative Secular Conservative Moderates "Persuadable" GOP 38
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