The Foreign-born Population in the EU and its contribution to National Tax and Benefit Systems Andrew Dabalen World Bank
Motivation Disagreements on the benefits of immigrants Welfarist view migrants are drawn to generous welfare state benefits and contribute little to host efficient market view migrants lead to better allocation of resources and therefore more efficient economies Particular relevance for EU in light of enlargement debate
Background Presentation drawn from work by team in the World Bank Luca Barbone, Misha Bontch- Osmolovsky, and Salman Zaidi prepared for EU Ministerial Conference Strengthening EU Competitiveness Potential of Migrants on the Labour Market Prague, 26th-27th February 2009
Main Questions Addressed 1. How large are the foreign-born populations in EU, and how do their demographic and social characteristics compare to the native-born population group? any signficant differences within and across individual EU member? 2. How much do the foreign-born populations pay in taxes and consume in benefits in different member? focus on comparing differences across various population sub-groups
Overview and Summary of Key Findings Migrants constitute about 8 percent of the population Share varies across individual EU, from a low of less than 2 percent in Poland and Slovakia to more than 15 percent in Austria Most of the migrant population is born outside the EU (6 percent) rather than in other EU (1-2 percent) 2. Migrants help raise the stock of working-age population Slightly more likely to have high education (i.e. compared to rest) but considerable variation evident across individual EU 3. Net contributions of Migrants to Tax & Benefit Systems No evidence to support the contention that migrants pay less taxes or consume higher benefits than the native-born population On the contrary, our calculations suggest they make a net contribution of an estimated Є42 billion to EU13 tax and benefit systems
Introduction (1) Main Data Source 2006 European Union Survey of Income and Living Conditions (2006 EU-SILC) Country of Birth and Citizenship data Demographics, Education, and Occupation Individual and Household Incomes Taxes Paid (taxes on wealth, taxes on income and social insurance contributions, employer s social contributions, etc.) Benefits Received (unemployment benefits, old-age, survivors, sickness, disability, education, family benefits, other allowances, etc.) Caveats: (i) imperfect proxy of migrant status; (ii) partial coverage of taxes and benefits
Introduction (2) Main Analytic Sub-Groups of Interest Native-born Population Foreign-born Population 1. Citizens born in other EU 2. Citizens born outside the EU 3. Non-citizens from other EU 4. Non-citizens born outside the EU EU13 and EU4 + Austria, Belgium, Spain, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Sweden, UK
Austria Belgium France Sweden Ireland UK Greece Italy Netherlands Denmark Spain Czech Rep. Finland Portugal Hungary Slovakia Poland EU13 EU4 Share of the population (%) 1. Size and Composition (1) About 8 percent of residents of EU13 were born outside the country where they currently live 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% Born in the country Born outside the country
Austria Belgium France Sweden UK Ireland Greece Netherlands Italy Spain Denmark Czech Rep. Portugal Finland Hungary Slovakia Poland EU13 EU4 Share of the population (percent) 1. Size and Composition (2) Most migrants in EU are from outside the EU (i.e. rather than having been born in other EU member ) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1. Citizens born in other EU 2. Citizens born outside the EU 3. Non-citizens from other EU 4. Non-citizens born outside the EU
21-55 yr-olds as % of total population aged 16 years and older 2. Demographic and Education Background (1) Migrants help raise the stock of working-age population ( particularly those born outside the European Union) 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 Austria Belgium Spain France Greece Ireland Italy Sweden UK EU13 Native-born population Born in other EU Born outside the EU
Share of Population (percent) 2. Demographic and Education Background (2) Migrants are slightly more likely to have high education EU13 Countries 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Native-born population Born in other EU Born outside the EU Primary and below Lower secondary Upper secondary Tertiary/post secondary
2. Demographic and Education Background (3) but with considerable variation evident in educational profile of migrant population across individual 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Native-born population Native-born population Austria Born in other EU Ireland Born in other EU Born outside the EU Born outside the EU 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Native-born population Native-born population Spain Born in other EU United Kingdom Born in other EU Born outside the EU Born outside the EU
Note: Computed on a per-capita basis 3. Contribution to National Tax and Benefit Systems (1) Total Household Earnings, Taxes Paid, and Benefits Received All amounts in euros per capita per year Austria Belgium Spain Ireland Sweden UK EU13 Households with no migrants: Gross Earned Income 12,654 13,179 7,675 13,646 13,743 15,726 12,926 Benefits 5,609 4,424 2,073 3,896 5,516 4,339 3,961 Taxes 4,353 4,595 1,315 2,779 6,005 4,866 4,108 Net income 13,910 13,007 8,433 14,763 13,254 15,199 12,779 Net taxes -1,256 171-758 -1,117 489 527 147 Number of observations 5,047 4,799 11,229 4,995 5,723 8,661 64,377 All households with migrants (i.e. groups 1-4) Earned Income 10,506 11,540 7,461 13,635 10,363 15,925 12,995 Benefits 4,185 3,177 938 2,674 4,822 2,896 2,978 Taxes 3,366 3,806 1184 2,645 4,474 4,794 3,990 Net income 11,325 10,910 7,215 13,663 10,711 14,027 11,982 Net taxes -819 630 246-28 -348 1,898 1,012 Number of observations 976 1,052 918 841 1,080 1,237 7,692
Euros per capita per year 3. Contribution to National Tax and Benefit Systems (2) In EU13 migrant households contribute much higher net taxes compared to households with no migrants 2,000 1,640 1,500 1,413 1,000 861 1,012 500 0-500 147 Households with no migrants -742 1. Households in other EU 2. Households outside the EU 3. Households from other EU 4. Households born outside the EU All households with migrants (Groups 1-4) -1,000
Euros per capita per year Euros per capita per year 3. Contribution to National Tax and Benefit Systems (3) this is true in most EU ( but Sweden is a notable exception) Austria Ireland 1,000 906 1,000-1,256-4,449-729 42-819 692-1,000-3,000 Households with no migrants 1. Households in other EU 2. Households outside the EU 3. Households from other EU 4. Households born outside the EU All households with migrants (Groups 1-4) 500 0-500 -1,117 Households with no migrants -342 1. Households in other EU Too few obs. 2. Households outside the EU 3. Households from other EU -932 4. Households born outside the EU -28 All households with migrants (Groups 1-4) -1,000-5,000-1,500 Sweden United Kingdom 1,500 1,385 3,000 2867 1,000 2,500 2,000 1898 500 489 1,500 1444 1457 0-500 -1,000 Households with no migrants -732-604 1. Households in other EU 2. Households outside the EU 3. Households from other EU -961 4. Households born outside the EU -348 All households with migrants (Groups 1-4) 1,000 500 0-500 527 Households with no migrants Too few obs. 1. Households in other EU 2. Households outside the EU 3. Households from other EU 4. Households born outside the EU All households with migrants (Groups 1-4)
Summary of Main Findings 3. Contribution to National Tax and Benefit Systems (4) No evidence to support contention that migrants pay less taxes or consume significantly higher benefits than the native-born population in EU13 On the contrary, our calculations suggest that migrants make a net contribution of approx. Є42 billion to EU13 national tax and benefit systems
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