Event Proceedings Mapping a Vision for Europe s Future The Findings of the Bad Ragaz Group 2012 The Bad Ragaz Group met in 2012 amid ongoing uncertainty in the eurozone. The leaders examined different potential scenarios for Europe and discussed a range of opportunities for moving out of the crisis. 1
The 2012 meeting of the Bad Ragaz Group looked past the current confusion of the eurozone crisis to examine a range of potential pathways out of it. 1 The group explored three potential scenarios for Europe in 2020 that mapped a broad range of potential outcomes from breakup to resurgence. The meeting concluded with a strong consensus on the outlines of the future to which Europe should aspire and a clearly expressed desire among many participants to work together to help realize it. Beyond the Crisis: European Economic Prospects The group s first session covered Europe s economic prospects and clarified just how far the euro crisis is from being resolved, and the extent to which fiscal pressures will burden governments and the financial sector for years to come. Even when the euro s troubled members stabilize their economies and benefit from the structural reforms now under way, the broader problem of an aging population lies in wait. According to the European Commission, in 1950 the proportion of working to retired people in the advanced economies was 7 to 1; in the EU in 2050, that proportion will shrink to 1.3 to 1. 2 There was a strong consensus on the future to which Europe should aspire and a clearly expressed desire to work together to help realize it. Johan Aurik, Head of A.T. Kearney s Europe, Middle East, and Africa region In that context, the pessimists in the group argued that the next few years will see ever more elderly Europeans collecting pensions and requiring costly health care while a lost generation of unemployed youth may be even less employable after five years without a job than they are now. The group s optimists agreed that it will require a remarkable, sustained recovery to make up for the years of stagnation and austerity across Europe. At the same time, they argued that with bold leadership, a compelling vision for the future, and imaginative new policies on education, apprenticeship, and the use of low interest rates to finance investment in hard and soft infrastructure, such a strong rebound could be within reach. All participants agreed that this is a crisis Europe cannot afford to waste that now is the time to accelerate overdue reforms in education, labor markets, tax structures, and incentives for entrepreneurs. 1 The Bad Ragaz Group is supported by A.T. Kearney s European practices and its Global Business Policy Council. Discussions are governed by Chatham House rules so no participant is quoted by name. For more information on the group, see www.atkearney.com/gbpc/regional-ceo-retreats. 2 Europeans Fear Crisis Threatens Liberal Benefits, The New York Times, 22 May 2010. 2
There are reasons for cautious optimism. The imbalance between debtor and creditor countries is easing. Greece and Spain have increased their competitiveness. Healthier economies such as Germany and the United Kingdom have proved remarkably hospitable to young Spaniards, Greeks, and Portuguese seeking work. Budget deficits across Europe have on average halved in the past two years and the consensus is now strong for closely coordinated budget and economic policies across Europe. On multiple fronts, leading indicators bode well. The Political Landscape The debate between austerity and growth was matched by an equally vigorous debate between a federalist drive to more Europe and a push for a more business-friendly approach by governments. While Germany s government has made the crucial strategic choice to do whatever it takes to revive Europe so long as its partners continue with the structural reforms, the need for an increased sense of urgency is clear. From multiple perspectives, participants stressed that Europe needs a less politically driven, more technologically advanced and integrated energy policy, with more room to explore the potential for shale gas. There were also many calls for Europe to develop a smart welfare state, flexibility on retirement ages, and enhanced migration policies. The Future of Europe s Workforce Paul Laudicina, Managing Partner and Chairman of the Board, A.T. Kearney There was agreement that while Europe s productivity rates are high and innovation rates are improving, a new approach to tapping Europe s unused talents is urgently needed. Participants repeatedly made the case for new investments in retraining targeted in collaboration with the business community. The primary challenge is to fix Europe s labor market through better and more economically relevant education and training, more apprenticeships, and above all through greater labor mobility. Young Spaniards and Greeks are moving to seek work, and they need more EU-level support with lifetime learning, mobile pensions, and flexible contracts. In the future, Europe will need more productive work from fewer people. This will require more skills, more mobility, and smarter incentives to deliver more engineers and entrepreneurs and fewer bankers. When Germany is short by 200,000 engineers, Europe has a problem. It could learn from Switzerland s example. Looking at the Range of Possible Futures The discussion of Europe s longer-range future and the global context that will shape it and be shaped by it began with contrarian perspectives on the near-term prospects of the United States and China. There was quite wide agreement that the United States, spurred by the shale gas revolution and a resulting petrochemical boom and housing recovery, was 3
Ivan Sandrea, right, Senior Research Advisor, The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, United Kingdom poised for a very strong rebound, its gridlocked politics permitting. Many argued that China, by contrast, faces some tough challenges, sociopolitical as much as economic. At the same time, China s capacity to make and execute strategic decisions rapidly was highlighted as a crucial advantage. In addition to these uncertain geopolitical dynamics, many other factors, from the speed of economic and technological change to surging volatility in food and raw material prices, are combining to make conventional linear planning less useful. In that spirit, we devoted our final morning together to explore a range of potential scenarios for Europe developed by the Global Business Policy Council and framed by a veteran of Shell s celebrated practice. We discussed the implications of a set of systematically generated range of scenarios, considered the key catalysts of change within them, and then clarified the medium- and longer-term outcomes that we, as a group, would be willing to help enable. We focused on three scenarios: Pyrrhic victory. In this scenario, Europe accomplishes significant integration through a long series of incremental steps that are approved, although never passionately embraced by its citizens. Hard, strategic choices are largely avoided along the way and as a result, Europe in 2020 continues to face multiple challenges: diminished competitiveness, an aging population, and rising levels of high-talent emigration as it increasingly loses out to centers of technological innovation and cultural leadership elsewhere. Europe s long-sought integration has come to feel like a weight around its neck. There are reasons for cautious optimism. The imbalance between debtor and creditor countries is easing. On multiple fronts, leading indicators bode well. Derailed. In this scenario, an attack by the United States and Israel on Iranian nuclear facilities is followed by economic dislocation, and the project of European integration falls apart. The eurozone breaks into one large piece and many smaller ones a unified northern core (anchored by Germany and France and including Benelux, Austria, and the Baltics) and a southern archipelago of once-again independent states. In 2020, however, the scaled-down, more concentrated eurozone is showing promise. Although still recovering from the financial hangover following the split, it is fundamentally competitive economically, unified socially, and decisive strategically, with Poland, the Nordics, and the Baltics clamoring for entry. 4
The center holds. In this scenario, a major crisis linked to a large French bank occurs at just the right time politically. Merkel and Draghi are able to use the crisis to achieve the main elements of a banking and fiscal union and to do so in ways that leaves Europe very well positioned strategically. The Europe that emerges in 2020 is not only a vast, integrated market; it is highly competitive, politically unified, and determined to play a significant role in world affairs. In capitals and boardrooms around the world, the conversation frequently turns to the apparent emergence of a true G3 if only they can manage the intense rivalry between them. By an overwhelming margin of almost three to one, group members saw the first option as the most probable and the third option as most desirable. Few expected the second scenario to unfold but almost no one would rule it out completely. The conclusion was that fundamental change will come whether or not governments and businesses like it, and we will all need to be agile and flexible in order to adapt. In the future, Europe will need more productive work from fewer people. When Germany is short by 200,000 engineers, Europe has a problem. Thomas Schmidheiny, Chairman, Spectrum Value Management, Switzerland More specifically, one imperative emphasized by many participants across the sessions was particularly clear: We must improve the interface between European business and political leaders. In this effort, a serious, continuous, and open dialogue is only the starting point. Europe requires a new model of public and social engagement based on the triangle of government, civil society, and the private sector. There are clear opportunities for leaders from these sectors to take joint action to improve education and training to ensure that talent shortages are systematically reduced, to create incentives for bringing increasing numbers of women into all management levels, and to advance a model of sustainability that is as much about personal and human well-being as it is about the environment. Having considered both an all-too-likely scenario for Europe in 2020 that no one seeks and another one representing a future genuinely worthy of future generations, the 2012 meeting of the Bad Ragaz Group yielded a strikingly clear sense of collective purpose. Specifically, the meeting concluded with strong statements of support for taking on a joint Bad Ragaz Group project to develop a new, compelling vision for Europe and then to share it broadly with government and the public, taking advantage of the group members unique expertise and influence. 5
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